Come on Sarah

[Well b back 3,190]

Shock horror there may be a vaccine soon says SKY. I understood this was already being manufactured ?

Preparations are being made to start production of the Oxford vaccine as soon as November. Between two and three million vials, each containing eight doses, could be produced every month.

Ravi Limaye, Wockhardt's UK managing director, said the vials will be quarantined until the vaccine is approved by safety regulators - but will have to be destroyed if for any reason it's turned down.

[Well b back 3,190]

Here is a paragraph taken from the leaks over the weekend. Again it is using the word effective. Does that mean until there is enough vaccine for everybody ? Does the treatment bit mean until there is enough evidence on which work best ?

Mr Johnson has been told by the government’s scientific advisers that at their best estimate an effective vaccine or treatment for Covid will not be available until the spring, meaning that any new measures could have to last up to six months.

[Well b back 3,190]

Here is a very good guardian article. There are some big things in there and I must say their reasoning for why it won’t be before November and probably next year seems very logical, especially the Trump bit. For those ( like me ) still hoping for this year there is one stand out name missing from all those queuing up to say we won’t be rushing it and that’s Pfizer. 
https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2020/sep/21/covid-19-vaccine-race-develop

[Well b back 3,190]

Did you just watch the briefing ?. Optimistic of a vaccine before Christmas ? Maybe I was listening with my positive ears on and got wrong what I just heard but did that not backup the Midlands Today story ? Thoughts please.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Did you just watch the briefing ?. Optimistic of a vaccine before Christmas ? Maybe I was listening with my positive ears on and got wrong what I just heard but did that not backup the Midlands Today story ? Thoughts please.

that was correct. They wanted to dampen expectations of it by saying there could be a small amount for the most in need. Hints at emergency approval

Crucially, Whitty called this a 6 month problem... sounds like he thinks it'll be early next year when we get a mass programme for vaccination.

[Well b back 3,190]

13 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

that was correct. They wanted to dampen expectations of it by saying there could be a small amount for the most in need. Hints at emergency approval

Crucially, Whitty called this a 6 month problem... sounds like he thinks it'll be early next year when we get a mass programme for vaccination.

Thanks

Its always the same with these things I find ie I want a vaccine so I only hear positive things, somebody that’s not bothered will hear the negative things. 
Putting that briefing and The Guardian report my best guess now is the Midlands Today report was spot on other than it’s more likely to be November / December rather than October, so maybe it was Oxford hoping to launch first. 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Thanks

Its always the same with these things I find ie I want a vaccine so I only hear positive things, somebody that’s not bothered will hear the negative things. 
Putting that briefing and The Guardian report my best guess now is the Midlands Today report was spot on other than it’s more likely to be November / December rather than October, so maybe it was Oxford hoping to launch first. 

well we know Pfizer will have their results by Oct so all points to then. I'd imagine things will move very quickly once that's gained emergency approval (yes I mean if...)

[sonyc 5,489]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

Did you just watch the briefing ?. Optimistic of a vaccine before Christmas ? Maybe I was listening with my positive ears on and got wrong what I just heard but did that not backup the Midlands Today story ? Thoughts please.

I read into his comments that we have a really difficult and unsettling 6 months (& probably this scientist led briefing....quite refreshing in itself not to hear the political spin put on things...might be a precursor to big announcements this week) but that there may be some very selected vaccine given approval in exceptional circumstances ...for the most vulnerable. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it. He did state Spring 2021 and in the context of what he has stated before when asked about timescales "science doesn't work like that", I think his comment was very, very encouraging.

As TJ notes, we now wait to hear about Pfizer.

Edited September 21, 2020 by sonyc

[Mark .Y. 351]

4 hours ago, Well b back said:

Did you just watch the briefing ?. Optimistic of a vaccine before Christmas ? Maybe I was listening with my positive ears on and got wrong what I just heard but did that not backup the Midlands Today story ? Thoughts please.

Yeh, before the end of the year Ican genuinely see a vaccine (not sure which one) available to NHS, care workers and care home residents. That would surely stem the worst of any kind of second wave ??

 

[Well b back 3,190]

Bit more meat on the bone with the Independents report from this morning.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-when-covid-treatment-b512347.html

 

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

3 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Yeh, before the end of the year Ican genuinely see a vaccine (not sure which one) available to NHS, care workers and care home residents. That would surely stem the worst of any kind of second wave ??

 

if we're doubling every 7 days then we will have ****ed it before then...

fwiw I don't think we are quite doubling every 7 days yet but its definitely increasing and may get worse in the autumn weather.

[Mark .Y. 351]

20 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

if we're doubling every 7 days then we will have ****ed it before then...

fwiw I don't think we are quite doubling every 7 days yet but its definitely increasing and may get worse in the autumn weather.

I agree that we are not quite doubling every 7 days but who knows what will happen when the weather changes - as you rightly point out. I haven't kept a close eye on other countries but from the little bits I've picked up from Ricardo's posts, it seems that France and Spain have hit around 10,000 cases a day and then the rise has levelled out ?? Might have to do a little research into the numbers as that would seem a bit strange to me.

I guess I'm still hopeful that the vaccine will be available within around 6 weeks ie end of October.

[Well b back 3,190]

So it seems there may already be a safe vaccine that nobody realised protected against Covid. Mr Trump may get his wish after all if this report is correct and the the dengue vaccine is easy to manufacture. Only realised as people who had never had Covid had antibodies.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-study-exclu/exclusive-study-suggests-dengue-may-provide-some-immunity-against-covid-19-idUSKCN26C27E

[Well b back 3,190]

Should have said that didn’t just come from a press report that came from Jenners website.

[Well b back 3,190]

Johnson and Johnson go into final trials, but could overtake everyone.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/health/covid-19-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200923&instance_id=22474&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=141174537&section=topNews&segment_id=38889&te=1&user_id=974bdc9414d93873197a0e53bd27f7aa

[Well b back 3,190]

Johnson and Johnson go into final trials, but could overtake everyone.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/health/covid-19-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200923&instance_id=22474&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=141174537&section=topNews&segment_id=38889&te=1&user_id=974bdc9414d93873197a0e53bd27f7aa

[Well b back 3,190]

Well this is something I would never have believed. It is being reported that the U.K. are consulting on human challenge trials. Here is the bbc part. I suspect the change in attitude is simply the rising numbers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54275096

 

 

[Well b back 3,190]

More on the human challenge. Not sure why it’s not happening until January, but a big thank you to those prepared to do it.

The UK is taking part in talks to run a "challenge trial" where healthy volunteers agree to be deliberately given coronavirus to test whether vaccines work and speed up research.

One of the potential volunteers for the trial, which could take place in London in January, is Alastair Fraser-Urquhart, a student in biomedicine.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I think a challenge trial has the potential to save thousands of lives and really bring the world out of the pandemic sooner. It was just something that made instant sense to me."

Part of the group 1Day Sooner, which supports challenge trial volunteers, he said it would mean staying in "bio-containment" at a research facility for two weeks or more to prevent any risk of test subjects infecting anyone else.

Prof Peter Horby, an infectious diseases expert from Oxford University, said challenge trials have a long history going back to the earliest days of vaccination and have "real potential to advance science".

He said a Covid-19 challenge trial would be ethical because the risk to otherwise healthy young people was "extremely low" and some treatments to reduce the severity of the disease are now available, if the vaccines being tested fail.

[Well b back 3,190]

A report from the FT with predictions of when phase 3 results will in from Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Moderna.

https://www.ft.com/content/e5012891-58da-4a4f-8a05-182adf3ba0e2

 

[Well b back 3,190]

A very good piece from cbs 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-when-will-be-available-ready/

 

[sonyc 5,489]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

A report from the FT with predictions of when phase 3 results will in from Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Moderna.

https://www.ft.com/content/e5012891-58da-4a4f-8a05-182adf3ba0e2

 

Good article WBB with great graphics. Very hopeful too.

[Well b back 3,190]

32 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Good article WBB with great graphics. Very hopeful too.

Don’t know about you but I am now convinced that the predictions of when a vaccine will be ready is for everybody as opposed to when a vaccine will first be used. 
Interesting as well Johnson and Johnson is not just one dose ( opposed to two with most ), but it won’t need to be frozen and kept at certain temperatures making the wide distribution far easier. I now see exactly why best is not always first as if this works because of those reasons this will overtake everyone even if the others are already being used.

[Well b back 3,190]

Hot of the press the weekly NY Times tracker. It sees more movement to the right, just need that last box with a number in it now !. Beginning to look like the US no longer relying on Oxford and the trial has still not recommenced in the US.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

[Well b back 3,190]

Here is the reason for the human challenge trials not taking place before January. It will be the London college vaccine tested, but that I reckon sort of indicates the likes of Oxford will already have their results before then ?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-19-vaccine-coronavirus-news-update-search/

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

I figured it might be imperial... the timelines check out for what info I have

[Well b back 3,190]

16 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I figured it might be imperial... the timelines check out for what info I have

Yep maybe I am being very optimistic but Oxford if I remember back were asking for this to happen, so my best guess is Oxford will know their results before January.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

8 hours ago, Well b back said:

A report from the FT with predictions of when phase 3 results will in from Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Moderna.

https://www.ft.com/content/e5012891-58da-4a4f-8a05-182adf3ba0e2

 

This is a really useful article but TBH I'm disappointed with the timings mentioned, I had hoped from previous quotes it would be sooner than this.  The points from the three front-runners seem to be :

 

Pfizer - "ready to begin analysis" of their phase 3 data - end October

Moderna - "interim analysis" of phase 3 data in November or December.

Oxford/AstraZeneca - "on track" to submit for approval before the end of the year i.e. their analysis has been completed by then.

 

So this to me implies Oxford and Pfizer are neck & neck, but Moderna may see if interim results are good enough to justify a short cut to the process (which has already been discussed). 

 

I certainly hope with Oxford they are "under-promising" and will be ready well before the end of the year.

 

Also the blow to the gut is at the end where it says it should take a month for approval for vulnerable groups (reasonable enough), but then another 6 months would be needed for approval for roll-out for the whole population.  I hope that's more of an estimate for normal times and an emergency process can be followed now, we certainly need it !!

[Well b back 3,190]

34 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

This is a really useful article but TBH I'm disappointed with the timings mentioned, I had hoped from previous quotes it would be sooner than this.  The points from the three front-runners seem to be :

 

Pfizer - "ready to begin analysis" of their phase 3 data - end October

Moderna - "interim analysis" of phase 3 data in November or December.

Oxford/AstraZeneca - "on track" to submit for approval before the end of the year i.e. their analysis has been completed by then.

 

So this to me implies Oxford and Pfizer are neck & neck, but Moderna may see if interim results are good enough to justify a short cut to the process (which has already been discussed). 

 

I certainly hope with Oxford they are "under-promising" and will be ready well before the end of the year.

 

Also the blow to the gut is at the end where it says it should take a month for approval for vulnerable groups (reasonable enough), but then another 6 months would be needed for approval for roll-out for the whole population.  I hope that's more of an estimate for normal times and an emergency process can be followed now, we certainly need it !!

I would be amazed if approvals for emergency use are not already being looked at subject to any particular vaccine working. I also think beyond that it is more of a manufacture / distribution problem ( especially with Pfizer and Oxford ( 2 doses and temperature )). Only a guess but I would suspect this 6 month / March thing is when it is expected that the vaccine or a treatment will be out to everyone.

[Well b back 3,190]

No ax becomes the latest to advance to phase 3

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/health/covid-19-vaccine-novavax.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200925&instance_id=22515&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=141174537&section=topNews&segment_id=39007&te=1&user_id=974bdc9414d93873197a0e53bd27f7aa

[Van wink 2,994]

Yep good  news on Novavax WBB. Ironic that not long ago tests were hindered by the low level of community infection. Good that over 65’s are also in the trial, also strong antibody response, moving on nicely.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-second-covid-19-vaccine-to-begin-advanced-clinical-trials-in-the-uk-12080796

Edited September 25, 2020 by Van wink