Come on Sarah

[Well b back 3,175]

Was she on the Nicky Campbell show ? Will be uploaded soon, I will post a link when it is live

[Well b back 3,175]

Forget that lol radio 4 not 5 lol

[Well b back 3,175]

Listen at your leisure

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mj18

 

[Well b back 3,175]

Wow that was really good, to think she almost gave up being a scientist.

Was for obvious reasons very uncommitted about when it would be approved, but she gave the impression maybe not until the end of the year. Think I understood correctly when she was saying the approval for instance on the Chinese vaccine was really just the same as Oxford phase 3 and no absolute proof the Chinese vaccine worked, although deemed to be safe.

One thing is for certain once approved there are clearly already millions, if not billions of doses being manufactured, and I now understand the India manufacturing which is clearly as part of the worlds efforts for 3rd world countries, we will do our own.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

Missing it dam. She seems to be doing lots more interviews, often a sign of giving people confidence.

I’m sure it will be available on bbc sounds. I shall try and track it down

[Van wink 2,994]

5 hours ago, Van wink said:

I’m sure it will be available on bbc sounds. I shall try and track it down

Sorry looks like you already did...thanks

[Well b back 3,175]

More talk of Pfizer being ready to have its results analysed in October, and interestingly approved by the FDA

https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/health/a33338991/when-will-there-be-a-covid-19-vaccine/

[Well b back 3,175]

This is one of most interesting articles I have read. It is differentiating between ‘ when will a vaccine be completely distributed ‘ middle of next year and ‘ when will a vaccine start to be distributed to those more at risk ‘ November possibly. Pfizer again being bullish and hoping for their results in October. This does sort of backs up ( although talking about America ) that midlands today report. I do also note they say anything the NY Times does not know, is not worth knowing lol so seems like we have been following the right paper.

https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/health/a33338991/when-will-there-be-a-covid-19-vaccine/

[Well b back 3,175]

Another treatment ( I assume this is not the same as the one in trials with Oxford ) that sounds quite promising. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/health/coronavirus-drug-eli-lilly.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200917&instance_id=22264&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=141174537&section=topNews&segment_id=38330&te=1&user_id=974bdc9414d93873197a0e53bd27f7aa

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

This is one of most interesting articles I have read. It is differentiating between ‘ when will a vaccine be completely distributed ‘ middle of next year and ‘ when will a vaccine start to be distributed to those more at risk ‘ November possibly. Pfizer again being bullish and hoping for their results in October. This does sort of backs up ( although talking about America ) that midlands today report. I do also note they say anything the NY Times does not know, is not worth knowing lol so seems like we have been following the right paper.

https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/health/a33338991/when-will-there-be-a-covid-19-vaccine/

Excellent - one of the best articles I've read, the US journalism really puts ours to shame !

 

I think a lot of the different ways vaccine progress is being reported comes down to terminology, for whatever reason the Pfizer people always seem to accentuate the most positive aspect whereas the Oxford people seem to be more cautious.

 

As I see it a vaccine will go through these stages and here are my guesses for the UK timescales (which are worth the paper they're not written on):

 

Ready - I'm guessing Oxford and Pfizer will complete their phase 3 tests and (hopefully) will say their vaccines work and are ready to use during October.  At this point, all the data will be passed to the regulator to approve.  The Russian and Chinese vaccines have just been brought into use without waiting for phase 3, which is an incredibly reckless gamble IMO, they are not "ready" yet but they're already being used on people !

Approved - both the US and UK regulators are obviously ready to fast-track approval once a vaccine is "ready".  At the same time, they'll need to check this properly, they'll know that if they get it wrong, it will never be forgotten.  My guess : UK approval late October or early November.

Available - limited numbers of doses can be distributed to front-line staff and vulnerable groups.  My guess - UK during November & December.  I think the number of 3m doses has been mentioned.

Widely Available - this is when it's rolled-out to everyone.  I've not seen any suggested timescale for this in the UK, probably because it's never been done before for a new vaccine that's so urgently needed !  Given we're talking about most of 70m people, I'm guessing 6 months i.e. through to June 2021.  By then, I'm hoping we'll have enough people vaccinated to have "herd immunity".

Social Distancing no longer needed ? The $64m question.  For younger people (teens/20s) this will come sooner, some already aren't bothered.  For the rest of us, I think caution is the watchword until the vaccination programme is complete.  I don't expect to attend a football match during the current season, but I'm optimistic the 21/22 season will be "business as usual".

Worldwide ?  An interesting comment in the article that it will take several years to roll this out over the whole planet.  I hope we in the richer parts of the planet pull together to make sure it doesn't take that long.

 

Until then, it's going to be an ongoing battle which needs test, track & trace to be really on it, and we're going to see a continued process of local restrictions imposed & removed, and maybe some national measures will be needed if things get out of control.

[Well b back 3,175]

2 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Excellent - one of the best articles I've read, the US journalism really puts ours to shame !

 

I think a lot of the different ways vaccine progress is being reported comes down to terminology, for whatever reason the Pfizer people always seem to accentuate the most positive aspect whereas the Oxford people seem to be more cautious.

 

As I see it a vaccine will go through these stages and here are my guesses for the UK timescales (which are worth the paper they're not written on):

 

Ready - I'm guessing Oxford and Pfizer will complete their phase 3 tests and (hopefully) will say their vaccines work and are ready to use during October.  At this point, all the data will be passed to the regulator to approve.  The Russian and Chinese vaccines have just been brought into use without waiting for phase 3, which is an incredibly reckless gamble IMO, they are not "ready" yet but they're already being used on people !

Approved - both the US and UK regulators are obviously ready to fast-track approval once a vaccine is "ready".  At the same time, they'll need to check this properly, they'll know that if they get it wrong, it will never be forgotten.  My guess : UK approval late October or early November.

Available - limited numbers of doses can be distributed to front-line staff and vulnerable groups.  My guess - UK during November & December.  I think the number of 3m doses has been mentioned.

Widely Available - this is when it's rolled-out to everyone.  I've not seen any suggested timescale for this in the UK, probably because it's never been done before for a new vaccine that's so urgently needed !  Given we're talking about most of 70m people, I'm guessing 6 months i.e. through to June 2021.  By then, I'm hoping we'll have enough people vaccinated to have "herd immunity".

Social Distancing no longer needed ? The $64m question.  For younger people (teens/20s) this will come sooner, some already aren't bothered.  For the rest of us, I think caution is the watchword until the vaccination programme is complete.  I don't expect to attend a football match during the current season, but I'm optimistic the 21/22 season will be "business as usual".

Worldwide ?  An interesting comment in the article that it will take several years to roll this out over the whole planet.  I hope we in the richer parts of the planet pull together to make sure it doesn't take that long.

 

Until then, it's going to be an ongoing battle which needs test, track & trace to be really on it, and we're going to see a continued process of local restrictions imposed & removed, and maybe some national measures will be needed if things get out of control.

Yes it certainly shows that even if it is rolled out ‘ next year ‘ those wanting it in the certain groups will be given eua in October / November which makes that Midlands Today report make sense. 
Did you listen to the link of Sarah on radio 4 ? Before I listened to what she had to say on China ( which I assume applies to Russia as well ) I thought probably the same as yourself, however what she said when asked if China had overtaken everybody was again quite enlightening and not really what the Western press was reporting. She said that everybody was working together in a way never seen before, but what China is doing at the moment ( vaccinating thousands ) is exactly the same as us westerners phase 3 and as soon as that stage is done, theirs just like ours will be used for the next stage, vaccinating the next group, on the assumption it works. Russia and China seem to both be planning to move to that stage in late October. 
I suspect one of the reasons for going then is political ie make Trump look stupid. Being 60 and a type 2 diabetic if I was offered the vaccine now from Oxford, Pfizer or China I would have it, based on the fact that I would consider myself in the same bracket as volunteers at present, and under my own personal risk assessment I would consider the risk of death or serious disability to be higher from COVID-19 than one of these 3 vaccines ( of course they may not even work, but I think they know they do lol ).

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

10 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Yes it certainly shows that even if it is rolled out ‘ next year ‘ those wanting it in the certain groups will be given eua in October / November which makes that Midlands Today report make sense. 
Did you listen to the link of Sarah on radio 4 ? Before I listened to what she had to say on China ( which I assume applies to Russia as well ) I thought probably the same as yourself, however what she said when asked if China had overtaken everybody was again quite enlightening and not really what the Western press was reporting. She said that everybody was working together in a way never seen before, but what China is doing at the moment ( vaccinating thousands ) is exactly the same as us westerners phase 3 and as soon as that stage is done, theirs just like ours will be used for the next stage, vaccinating the next group, on the assumption it works. Russia and China seem to both be planning to move to that stage in late October. 
I suspect one of the reasons for going then is political ie make Trump look stupid. Being 60 and a type 2 diabetic if I was offered the vaccine now from Oxford, Pfizer or China I would have it, based on the fact that I would consider myself in the same bracket as volunteers at present, and under my own personal risk assessment I would consider the risk of death or serious disability to be higher from COVID-19 than one of these 3 vaccines ( of course they may not even work, but I think they know they do lol ).

Thanks - I've not heard her radio interview, that puts a very different slant on it re-China.

 

The Economist blog mentioned anecdotal reports of baggage handlers etc at Chinese airports being given the vaccine, so maybe they've decided to effectively make their phase 3 trial include some targeted groups like that, which is pretty sensible actually.

 

Russia may well be different because I think it's mainly Putin being macho and wanting to claim he's got them ahead of the west (hence the Sputnik reference) so I think he's just gambling on it working and making him look good.

 

I agree on taking the vaccine, I'm in my late 50s but with no underlying health conditions (AFAIK 😔) and I will take the vaccine as soon as I can, I hate the thought of having to wait best part of a year with the risk of catching it, and while the vaccine doesn't guarantee immunity, it will definitely help.  I agree completely that I think the risk of side effects is minimal.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

I'm in my 30s and "healthy" yet I'd still take the vaccine (the Oxford one at least), make of that what you will.

[Well b back 3,175]

Here we have another article, this time quoting health officials, note the magic words ‘ available to the general public in Spring 2021 ‘. Again this has Pfizer saying they expect results October. Sarah Gilbert also seems to think Oxford will be going eau and around the world they will get different responses.

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-ready-spring-2021-senior-health-officials-oxford-astrazeneca-programme-647540

[Well b back 3,175]

Hot off the press the NY Times latest. Although again we are talking next year, in reality again October is possible

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/health/covid-vaccine-when-available.html

[Well b back 3,175]

And here’s why it could be October. Pfizer and Moderna trials can be stopped if at as few as 53 cases show a 70+ % as it will be considered unethical to keep giving people the placebo. Is Oxford really that far behind ?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/health/covid-moderna-vaccine.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,017]

An interesting read, apologies if this has already been posted on this thread or elsewhere on the Pink Un........https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563.full?fbclid=IwAR0Guuel9ulYLiwtrVpl5Soajb9wEYDcKL14ytedhu2JLWIW6VQB8S0sQuw

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB said:

An interesting read, apologies if this has already been posted on this thread or elsewhere on the Pink Un........https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563.full?fbclid=IwAR0Guuel9ulYLiwtrVpl5Soajb9wEYDcKL14ytedhu2JLWIW6VQB8S0sQuw

Thanks, an interesting read and definitely new to me 👍

[Well b back 3,175]

2 hours ago, Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB said:

An interesting read, apologies if this has already been posted on this thread or elsewhere on the Pink Un........https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563.full?fbclid=IwAR0Guuel9ulYLiwtrVpl5Soajb9wEYDcKL14ytedhu2JLWIW6VQB8S0sQuw

Good read thanks

[Well b back 3,175]

Is what’s happening pushing the vaccine closer ?. Will the government cave in, panic and only have the vaccine to save their skins ?. On the 15/7 Oxford predicted exactly where we would be round about now ( they currently believe its twice as bad ) if that message changed. It’s scary what they said was their worse scenario regards winter deaths, although of course this is exactly what Oxford require to get their phase 3 results quicker ( every cloud ).
I say this as today we saw Boris make his ‘ the second wave is coming ‘ announcement. Where did he make it ? In a place where the vaccine is being manufactured. Was that just pure coincidence ?.

 

[Well b back 3,175]

That went under the radar, another vaccine deal signed. Interestingly we now have enough signed deals to obtain enough to vaccinate everyone 5 times.

On September 14, the Government announced that it had secured the supply of 60million doses of a Covid-19 vaccine candidate being developed in France. 

Valneva SE, a specialist vaccine company, announced a "major parternship" with the UK worth around £433million. The doses will be provided in the second half of 2021.  

There is an option for the Government to access a further 130million doses between 2022 and 2025, the company said.

Britain had already signed deals for more than 340million doses of a coronavirus vaccine. The total stockpile means that — if the vaccines all work — there will be enough for every person in Britain to have five doses. Most of the vaccines require two to be effective.

Britain is preparing to revise its laws to allow the emergency use of any effective coronavirus vaccine before it is fully licensed — but only if it meets required safety standards.

[Well b back 3,175]

The NY Times now has as many as 5 vaccines given emergency use. Reading between the lines Pfizer are very close if their quote is to be be believed it has changed from by the end of October to ‘ hopeful results will be known BY October ‘.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

[Well b back 3,175]

I will use this question as vaccine related as Oxford did state the lack of the virus in the U.K. would slow them down, I guess that could be less so seeing what’s happening at the moment. Now the question I have is a genuine question - are our figures being reported out of date ? Please use the question to decide that and not accuse the government of misleading us as difficult as it maybe. Here is why I ask.

We are being told the R is 1.1 - 1.4 ( bad enough in itself ) but last week Oxfords best guess was 1.7 with their new figure out Tuesday expected to be 2 +.

We are being told positives are 3 - 4000 per day, yet that app is increasing everyday looking like it maybe double as it catches up.

We are told hospital admissions are still low. Please correct me if I have this wrong but at the peak although the hospitals were rammed we never used the Nightingales. Now the official figures say plenty of capacity yet Birmingham Nightingale has just gone on red alert to be ready within 48 hours ( I appreciate that may not apply to the next 48 hours ).

Deaths are still low ( hopefully treatments are beginning to work ) but I read that if you are admitted to hospital and finish up in icu it takes over 28 days to die. Are these figures not being added ?

Will be interested in your thoughts.

[Well b back 3,175]

Jenner Twitter on PMS visit yesterday. Seems he must have been updated on trial data. 
Who is Carl Heneghan ? I am guessing somebody that doesn’t agree with his leadership ?
 

[Well b back 3,175]

Ha Ha Carl was telling the government it needs to get track, test and trace sorted a month ago or they would lose control. 
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/27/local-lockdowns-england-coronavirus-watchlist

[Well b back 3,175]

Ah sorry here is the Jenner Twitter link

 

[Well b back 3,175]

That does not give the comments where people were asking did he meet Carl Heneghan. 

[Well b back 3,175]

Here is an article about the distribution headache. For us though there is something of real interest. Let me take you back to that Midlands Today report that disappeared without trace. One of the things I remember being said was ‘ we were told the vaccine temperature would need to be monitored ‘. Well here’s further evidence it’s Pfizer. The more I see daily the more I believe that Midlands Today report was quoting facts and was made to take it down.

https://theconversation.com/keeping-coronavirus-vaccines-at-subzero-temperatures-during-distribution-will-be-hard-but-likely-key-to-ending-pandemic-146071

[Barbe bleu 809]

On 18/09/2020 at 21:06, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks, an interesting read and definitely new to me 👍

I'm pretty sure we were discussing this back in April. Good to see some figures out to our speculations though.

[Well b back 3,175]

Quick quote from Hancock this morning. I wonder when we will hear the announcement that will shock us all that the first to get the vaccine will be those in Staffordshire ?

Mr Hancock said he remained hopeful that a vaccine would be ready before the end of the year.

"We have got the cavalry coming over the next few months - the vaccine, the mass testing and the improvements in treatments - but we have got to all follow the rules between now and then to keep people safe," he added.