Come on Sarah

[Well b back 3,201]

Latest from mr Trump

The Trump administration has indicated that it will not participate in international coalition efforts to find and distribute a vaccine for Covid-19 because the World Health Organization (WHO) is involved.

The Washington Post newspaper reported that the White House would not join 172 other countries participating in a WHO-led initiative to "ensure equitable access to safe and effective vaccines, once they are licensed and approved".

White House spokesman Judd Deere said in a statement that the US would "continue to engage our international partners to ensure we defeat the virus, but we will not be constrained by multilateral organisations influenced by the corrupt World Health Organization and China".

US President Donald Trump has attacked the WHO over its handling of the coronavirus outbreak, accusing it of being biased towards China in how it issued its guidance.

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

13 hours ago, Well b back said:

At last a tweet copied onto Jenners website.

Am I reading to much into this ? Sarah Gilbert speaking on the 28th September, haven’t heard her for ages. Have a glance at the invite, especially the word vaccine. Is the V for victory ???

 

a sign of the world we live in when this tweet has only 9 likes!

[Well b back 3,201]

37 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

a sign of the world we live in when this tweet has only 9 likes!

3 of the 6 speakers are connected to Oxford. I have put a link below for the conference. Amongst some of the additional topics to be discussed ‘ a vaccine against cancer ‘

https://www.elsevier.com/events/conferences/vaccine-congress?utm_medium=globalbiodefense.com&utm_source=events-calendar&utm_campaign=13th-vaccine-congress

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

A vaccine against cancer, imagine that! We'll run out of things to die of soon 😛

[Well b back 3,201]

Surely these 2 vaccines must be Oxford and Moderna. Forget the political bit and look at the quotes regarding the effectiveness, they must know. Where does this leave the U.K. government ? Of course they will say it is not passed this test or that test yet, but all said and done they assured us the US story was not correct ?. Then putting in the Political bits, if there is evidence it works there is no way Trump will not try to save his own skin by giving special permissions. It also surely shows that the US at least ( with India ) must already be producing the vaccine, something they would surely not do until it worked ?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has notified public health officials in all 50 states and five large cities to prepare to distribute a coronavirus vaccine to health care workers and other high-risk groups as soon as late October or early November.

The new C.D.C. guidance is the latest sign of an accelerating race for a vaccine against a disease that has killed more than 184,000 Americans. The documents were sent out last week, the same day that President Trump said in his speech to the Republican National Convention that a vaccine might arrive before the end of the year.

 

 

Over the past week, both Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr. Stephen Hahn, who heads the Food and Drug Administration, have said in interviews with news organizations that a vaccine could be available for certain groups before clinical trials have been completed, if the data were overwhelmingly positive.

Public health experts agree that agencies at all levels of government should urgently prepare for what will eventually be a vast, complex effort to vaccinate hundreds of millions of Americans. But the possibility of a rollout in late October or early November has also heightened concerns that the Trump administration is seeking to rush the distribution of a vaccine — or simply to suggest that one is possible — before Election Day on Nov. 3.

“This timeline of the initial deployment at the end of October is deeply worrisome for the politicization of public health and the potential safety ramifications,” said Saskia Popescu, an infection prevention epidemiologist in Arizona. “It’s hard not to see this as a push for a pre-election vaccine.”

Three documents were sent to public health officials in all states and territories as well as New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Houston and San Antonio on Aug. 27. They outlined detailed scenarios for distributing two unnamed vaccine candidates — each requiring two doses a few weeks apart — at hospitals, mobile clinics and other facilities offering easy access to the first targeted recipients.

The guidance noted that health care professionals, including long-term-care employees, would be among the first to receive the product, along with other essential workers and national security employees. 

People age 65 or older, as well as those from “racial and ethnic minority populations,” Native Americans and incarcerated individuals — all communities known to be at greater risk of contracting the virus and experiencing severe disease — were also prioritized in the documents.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine unveiled a 114-page plan on Wednesday, sponsored by the C.D.C. and the National Institutes of Health, that proposed a complicated four-phase system for priority. 

 

 

The C.D.C. said in its guidance that “limited Covid-19 vaccine doses may be available by early November 2020.” It also said its plans were still hypothetical, noting, “The Covid-19 vaccine landscape is evolving and uncertain, and these scenarios may evolve as more information is available.” A C.D.C. spokeswoman confirmed that the documents were sent but declined to comment further.

 

 

 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

The Economist's Babbage podcast has an interesting discussion on the risks with rushing a vaccine through.  A discussion with their public health policy journalist who seemed pretty on the ball.  She says the first Phase 3 trial results should be out in 3/4 weeks and in the UK you're then looking at very fast track regulatory approval (assuming all good of course).  So if the Oxford vaccine gets the thumbs up from the Phase 3 trials, it sounds to me like we'd be on track for it to be approved in late October and then it's the timing for producing and distributing it.

 

I'll post more on this later, I'm not sure if it's behind a paywall.

[Well b back 3,201]

28 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

The Economist's Babbage podcast has an interesting discussion on the risks with rushing a vaccine through.  A discussion with their public health policy journalist who seemed pretty on the ball.  She says the first Phase 3 trial results should be out in 3/4 weeks and in the UK you're then looking at very fast track regulatory approval (assuming all good of course).  So if the Oxford vaccine gets the thumbs up from the Phase 3 trials, it sounds to me like we'd be on track for it to be approved in late October and then it's the timing for producing and distributing it.

 

I'll post more on this later, I'm not sure if it's behind a paywall.

Thanks

That ties in as well with the post re the vaccine conference, where most of the speakers are Oxford and Moderna. It also ties in with Oxford / AstraZeneca going quiet and foreign press reports that the results are in to be analysed. I really didn’t want this to get political but I am now of the firm belief that just as Trump is launching it for his own political gain, Johnson is also playing games with us to make himself look good in October / November. By stating America cannot have it first under contract, means he has to follow. We must also remember Trump will also look at taking all the credit and I reckon therefore will have a few shots at Johnson. We must remember we have invested 10’s of millions of pounds, but Trump in fairness invested 1.25 billion dollars.

Come on EDP you should pick up on this story, it would be a major coup.

[Well b back 3,201]

The guardian now reporting, and this looks a step ahead ie the vaccine will be distributed to you by ( forget their name ). 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-november-trump

[Well b back 3,201]

And now Boris is talking about changing the licensing laws for - o there’s a coincidence October. Normally I would say he would not get this through, but as we now know the US are threatening to take over our vaccine and there is nothing he can do about it.

https://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2020/09/uk-laws-will-allow-emergency-use-of-coronavirus-vaccine-before-its-licensed/

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-09-02-development-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-expands-us-phase-iii-clinical-trial#

so far so good for the front runner! Into the US phase 3 trial.

[Well b back 3,201]

26 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-09-02-development-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-expands-us-phase-iii-clinical-trial#

so far so good for the front runner! Into the US phase 3 trial.

So much for the U.K. Press claims that they were struggling to get 50,000 volunteers. They only need 38 infections and I suspect from what is being said they are either close or there. Of course it’s worth remembering as well that the NY Times article this morning said Phase 3 is expected to be cut short. 

[Well b back 3,201]

Interesting quotes from Hancock and Whitty. So I wonder if Mr Whitty is talking sense or is he Mr Johnson’s latest person outside the goverment to be left high and dry.

Mr Hancock said if one were to be available this year, laws would be changed to make sure European regulators do not have to sign off on it.

Although Britain has technically left the European Union, it is still in a transition period meaning the country still has to adhere to EU laws and regulation.

However, Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer for England, has expressed doubt over whether a vaccine will actually be ready this year.

Professor Whitty said it is more likely to be the case towards the end of next year, if one is found to work at all.

[BigFish 1,986]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Professor Whitty said it is more likely to be the case towards the end of next year, if one is found to work at all.

Amongst all the propaganda, leaking and excitability it is this that looks like it has a ring of truth

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

I think the key words are "more likely".  Basically for it to be available this year, there are only a couple of candidates that it could possibly be, so it depends on one or other of them succeeding.  Whereas by this time next year, loads more vaccine candidates will have gone through testing.  It's simply more likely that one of that large number will succeed, than one of the two this year.

 

I think this is all he's meaning.  Not that it won't happen this year, it's simply a best case outcome if it does.  But given the Oxford vaccine has reached phase 3 successfully and the rumours are that it's looking good, the best case outcome could well happen.  In which case we, and the whole world, will be very fortunate.

[Well b back 3,201]

This is Pollard ( one of the leads on the Oxford vaccine ) speaking. 
 

He said they would want to have evidence that the vaccine actually works before going to any regulator, including in the US where Donald Trump has said he could seek emergency approval for a vaccine such as the Oxford one in October.

“Emergency use authorisations are well established by regulators both in the United States and in Europe; in fact, you may be aware just this week, the FDA [the US Food and Drug Administration] has granted emergency use authorisation for plasma therapy,” he said.

 

[Indy 3,297]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

Amongst all the propaganda, leaking and excitability it is this that looks like it has a ring of truth

Not at all BF, Whitty not having a working vaccine when all the studies show how well things are moving forward at pace.

The truth is as has always been said by those in the know, we could have limited availability and distribution capabilities, but it’s very important to get the vulnerable and front line people vaccinated before any chance of a second wave, the main process holding this back was the long process with liabilities, which have and are being possibly waived.

The real statement from Whitty should be that any vaccine to vaccinate the entire pulsation will no doubt take us to the end of next year!

Funny that Sputnik (Oxford Vaccine Stage 4 testing 😂) is now showing identical results and no side effects!

Edited September 4, 2020 by Indy

[Barbe bleu 823]

I think far too much is being  read into this chris witty statement.

He thinks it unlikely/highly unlikely that a highly effective vaccine is ready for mass use before the end of the coming winter.

He doesn't say that this is impossible though and nor does he say what his view on a moderately effective vaccine used at scale is or what the chances of us having a highly effective vaccine in limited use are.

I also suspect that he is deliberately downplaying this a bit as any good scientist probably would.

[Indy 3,297]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

I think far too much is being  read into this chris witty statement.

He thinks it unlikely/highly unlikely that a highly effective vaccine is ready for mass use before the end of the coming winter.

He doesn't say that this is impossible though and nor does he say what his view on a moderately effective vaccine used at scale is or what the chances of us having a highly effective vaccine in limited use are.

I also suspect that he is deliberately downplaying this a bit as any good scientist probably would.

But that’s not what he said is it! He’s a bit of a **** really.

[Barbe bleu 823]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

But that’s not what he said is it! He’s a bit of a **** really.

I might have missed something.   I only looked back at statements because of what is written here.

What i saw was that he said on or about 23rd August:

“I think it is unlikely we will have a vaccine that is highly effective and ready to deploy at scale this winter" 

And then some bits about preparing for the worst next winter rather than make assumptions.

I took the first statement to mean that he is prepared to say in public that there is about a 1 in 3 to 1 in 4 chance that the /a vaccine will be top-notch and mass produced before the end of this winter (but he is privately a bit more optimistic...)

Might be that there is a different statement made by him before or after...

 

[Well b back 3,201]

9 hours ago, Indy said:

Not at all BF, Whitty not having a working vaccine when all the studies show how well things are moving forward at pace.

The truth is as has always been said by those in the know, we could have limited availability and distribution capabilities, but it’s very important to get the vulnerable and front line people vaccinated before any chance of a second wave, the main process holding this back was the long process with liabilities, which have and are being possibly waived.

The real statement from Whitty should be that any vaccine to vaccinate the entire pulsation will no doubt take us to the end of next year!

Funny that Sputnik (Oxford Vaccine Stage 4 testing 😂) is now showing identical results and no side effects!

Yes I saw that tonight. Although their phase 2 was limited, looks like it was 100% again and now moved to their phase 3 which is 100s thousands. 
Had to laugh as well when watching ITV last week the world was struggling to get 20,000 for the Oxford trials, today 40 - 50000 have now been vaccinated.

[Well b back 3,201]

Details of the Lancet paper re Sputnik. Going by everything they have said and shown surely this is the Oxford vaccine ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54036221

 

[Well b back 3,201]

The Russian results must have pushed Trump to the edge ? Bet he will be on the phone to Adrian Hill later today lol

[Well b back 3,201]

BBC news on and they just interviewed the Indian health guy. They shew the Oxford vaccine being made. He then stated that a vaccine he expects to be fully licensed within 2 1/2 to 3 months ( that’s quite a small gap ).

[Well b back 3,201]

A good read

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/03/coronavirus-vaccine-roundup-early-september

[Well b back 3,201]

Here’s a bit more of Trump and AstraZeneca. It seems like Boris is using the ‘ U.K. get the LICENSED vaccine first ‘, but it may be rolled out in several Countries with emergency use ( US and India ). Note as well AstraZeneca denials seem to be the U.K. government denying it, and Oxford didn’t deny it they said best you speak to AstraZeneca.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/24/oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-firm-astrazeneca-denies-trump-talks

[Well b back 3,201]

Well here we go. America ( Fauci not Trump ) are now telling us how the trials could be stopped early. Reading into this I guess one of the vaccines is racing ahead ( let’s hope it’s Oxford ). Also interesting to note I didn’t think anyone could see the results data, but looks like someone can ( I assume they are American ).

The big question now is should Trump have kept his mouth shut. If this is going to happen it may well of happened normally, but now are people not going to say it is Political ?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/01/health/coronavirus-vaccine-trials-early-fauci/index.html

[Well b back 3,201]

Hidden away in this a date the 22/10 when there is a US meeting.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-vaccine-phase-3-covid-fda-cure-a9704111.html

[Well b back 3,201]

Morning all.

Now read into this whatever you want as there is the usual if it works clarification ( I suspect they know it works ), but surely Australia would be well down the list after just signing up, but they plan to vaccinate with Oxford in January / February ?. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54052430

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

Morning all.

Now read into this whatever you want as there is the usual if it works clarification ( I suspect they know it works ), but surely Australia would be well down the list after just signing up, but they plan to vaccinate with Oxford in January / February ?. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54052430

Thanks WBB, really interesting article and promising news. 

 

In terms of the timescale, it says the vaccine will be produced in Australia so I suspect the lead time is to allow them to tool up for manufacturing so they have it ready for distribution from January onwards.

 

In terms of countries queueing up for the Oxford vaccine, my take is that it's all about production capacity around the world, AZ will be licensing production to different companies so Australia won't be competing with us (for example) for doses of the vaccine - we've organised our own production in the UK, the US has theirs, India has massive vaccine production capacity I think.  So I don't see that as an issue.

 

 

Edited September 7, 2020 by It's Character Forming
typo

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Sorry, I've just read the BBC article properly.  For Jan/Feb they say they've setup imported doses of the vaccine (if it works) but it doesn't say where they'll be importing them from, and after that they'll be manufacturing their own.

 

I'm assuming there are plenty of countries that will have massive manufacturing capacity in play by then if the UK phase III trial is positive reasonably soon.