Come on Sarah

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

9 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Agreed. I guess they are have already started the approvals based around safety, so they are closer to be ready when the final results of effectiveness are in.

As you know I will always stand to be corrected, but I seem to remember putting up an Oxford report where they were saying this vaccine is a vaccine ( with a couple of tweaks ) that they have used for other things ?

Hi WBB

 

Yes I'm sure you're right.  My layman's understanding is that there are two aspects to this.  First, getting the vaccine into human cells.  The Oxford vaccine uses a modified chimpanzee cold virus to deliver it, which has been tested heavily in the past to confirm it's safe, so they basically started off knowing the delivery mechanism was safe.

 

Next, they've taken the specific gene for the coronavirus "spike" which attaches to human cells, and added it to the delivery virus via genetic engineering.  This is enough to trigger an immune response, which is the point of a vaccine, but because it's just that "spike" and not the whole coronavirus. there's no way you can actually get Covid from the vaccine.

 

So the trials so far have been about side-effects and producing an immune response.  The current trial is all about whether it actually cuts down numbers of infections, hence the importance of the rumour that the trial sample have had enough Covid infections to be statistically significant - they can now remove the "double blind" anonymising that was done when people were given the vaccine vs placebo and hopefully voila, there are hardly any infections in the vaccine group.  It seems vaccines can produce an immune response but still not be that effective at stopping people getting the illness, so if you rush into picking one too soon, you could end up ignoring a much better vaccine that comes through a couple of months later.

 

My big worry with the Russians short-cutting the process is that they end up with a vaccine that's not very effective and undermine public confidence in all the Covid vaccines.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

ICF, you said it better than me, they basically already knew it was safe before they started... Just seen China have already been vaccinating their key workers already... the plot thickens.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

Wow. This is an experiment to see how we can safely get crowds back, with human beings as the trialists. The only difference I see between this and human trials is that you have a 100% chance of getting infected with the virus in a human trial.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/arts/music/coronavirus-concert-experiment.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200824&instance_id=21553&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=141174537&section=topNews&segment_id=36797&te=1&user_id=974bdc9414d93873197a0e53bd27f7aa

somebody has to try and get some scientific live experiments going, otherwise the proms will be another canned laughter event.

[Well b back 3,190]

What an opportune moment I had just listening to the radio news. When challenged that America were getting and releasing the Oxford vaccine first, both Oxford and The goverment ( not sure who it was ) want to reassure the U.K. that all contracts say we get it first. As various countries have chunk of that first delivery, that surely makes it even more likely that certain U.K. groups will be offered this soon. 
I would have thought the response ( in view of Whiteys comments yesterday ) should have simply been ‘ how can he do that as there is no proof it works yet and it’s not guaranteed to be safe !.

Someone please be straight with us and stop from day to day contradicting yourselves.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

It's really frustrating I agree.  My guess is that they want to be 100% sure before confirming the phase III results because if it turns out it doesn't work when they've given the impression it does, they will get absolutely pilloried.

 

Also, when it's confirmed a vaccine is on the way, I'm worried that low-risk groups e.g. teens/20s, will think it's going to be sorted pretty soon and they can stop worrying about social distancing.

 

Once a vaccine has been tested as effective, obviously that's fantastic news but managing the process from then on until we have enough people vaccinated and the same happens world-wide is going to be very difficult and let's face it, this government hasn't been the most adept at managing tricky processes generally.... I hope they do better than they've done so far TBH.

[Van wink 2,994]

The government were slaughtered (rightly) for over promising on tests etc early on. I would expect them to take a precautionary approach in terms of big announcements going forward.

[Well b back 3,190]

A little bit of a round up from BBC lol. So in a survey the Americans reckon any vaccine they develop is for their use first - Don’t suppose they are telling Mr Trump not to going buying the rest of the worlds vaccines. Has nobody told them Oxford are miles ahead lol

Vaccines are meant to be about science - but they seem inseparable from politics too.

In fact, just today, there are three different vaccine stories making the rounds: 

• The Trump administration has considered giving emergency approval to the UK Covid-19 vaccine currently being developed by pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca and Oxford University ahead of November's US presidential elections, according to the Financial Times and New York Times. If true, this could spark safety concerns - but Trump officials and AstraZeneca have denied the reports. 
• Meanwhile, a new US poll published in Axios suggests 66% of Americans believe any vaccine developed in the US should only be shared with the rest of the world after all US orders have been filled. 

• China says it has been using experimental coronavirus vaccines on key workers in recent weeks. But not everyone has confidence in China's vaccine trials - last week Papua New Guinea denied entry to 180 Chinese nationals who had apparently been "immunised" with a trial vaccine. 

And of course, earlier this month, Russia announced it had registered the first vaccine against Covid-19 - but was met with scepticism. 

A Covid-19 vaccine is one of the most valuable and eagerly sought-after medical prizes in modern times, says the BBC's security correspondent, Gordon Corera. This is not just because of the life-saving benefits, but also the promise of ending disruption, and the glory and validation for those who succeed.

[Van wink 2,994]

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/927316/ftse-100-closes-17-ahead-as-traders-buy-back-into-risk-on-vaccine-hopes-927316.html

[Well b back 3,190]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/927316/ftse-100-closes-17-ahead-as-traders-buy-back-into-risk-on-vaccine-hopes-927316.html

It all gets more interesting by the hour. 
As you are probably aware AstraZeneca have denied this, however you have to begin to think there is evidence this works as it would seem much simpler to quicken your own vaccine ( Moderna ) or even get the Chinese one that in parts of the world is already approved.

If you are on ITV they are about to do a big bit on it. 
I will post again in 1/2 hour.

[Well b back 3,190]

Watched ITV

What am I missing ? Everyone commenting on Oxford vaccine trials except Oxford ?. Surely that would have been far more credible had Adrian Hill or our Sarah Gilbert commented and said we won’t start getting results until end November. ITV have just said Oxford is at Phase 2 ? We know we are at 3. As always I stand to be corrected but I am sure Oxford said they would need around 10000 on phase 3 and 38 positive tests. ITV have just said 15000 have been vaccinated and then added 50000 are required but they can’t get enough volunteers ??? All their trials are full !!!. AstraZeneca and a Government official were also conspicuous by their absence.
So why does Trump want Oxford and not Moderna ? Moderna is allegedly doing as well as Oxford ? Does he know something nobody else seems to ?

If the tests really are for safety and 50000 need to be vaccinated, there is no way they wouldn’t get enough, I am on the volunteer register and I understood there are 100s of thousands. There are 100,000 volunteering for human trial. So one last question, has Trump told Oxford he will arrange a human challenge trial ?

[Well b back 3,190]

Should have added it was said AstraZeneca have denied the Trump story but where have they denied it ? I can see it nowhere other than that seems to be what the press have been told.

[Well b back 3,190]

Another vaccine from Italy this time moves to human trials.

The first volunteer was inoculated with a “made in Italy” vaccine on Monday at the Spallanzani hospital in Rome, which specializes in infectious diseases.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://www.channel4.com/news/im-hopeful-were-going-to-start-to-get-readout-early-in-autumn-as-to-whether-this-thing-works-or-not-prof-sir-john-bell-on-oxford-vaccine

Early Autumn but with plenty of caveats according to sir John Bell.

What I didn't quite get was when he was on about a seasonal vaccine required even though the virus is slow to mutate and the vaccine would provide multiple years protection... surely if I've had my 2 doses then I'm good for a while?

[Well b back 3,190]

3 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.channel4.com/news/im-hopeful-were-going-to-start-to-get-readout-early-in-autumn-as-to-whether-this-thing-works-or-not-prof-sir-john-bell-on-oxford-vaccine

Early Autumn but with plenty of caveats according to sir John Bell.

What I didn't quite get was when he was on about a seasonal vaccine required even though the virus is slow to mutate and the vaccine would provide multiple years protection... surely if I've had my 2 doses then I'm good for a while?

Just need quotes from Oxford. They are so conspicuous by their absence from all the debates ( especially the Trump debacle ). Their Twitter which was so active has gone to bed.

[Well b back 3,190]

And for those youngsters who think we don’t have to worry about it, I would urge them to read the latest research as to what’s happening to young healthy people that get it, go to hospital and don’t die. Again ( I don’t want to get political although I am about to ) surely if our leadership were telling the youngsters about this, then some of the fragrant breaking of the rules by younger people would at least make them question it. There is lots more including tweets which I have not put links up for from scientists stating how serious this is for younger people.

They Beat Covid, But Debilitating Effects and Economic Costs May Linger for Years

 

Before Daniela Alves caught Covid-19 in March, the 31-year-old Londoner regularly worked overtime to accelerate her career as a mobile app designer. Now, she struggles with client meetings, and says persistent fatigue has halved her productivity.

“I was a beast before, but now things are different,” Alves says over Zoom, pausing frequently to catch her breath or cough. “I can’t physically do it, and I’m approaching life differently.”

Alves said she needed three months off work even after experiencing a “mild” infection that didn’t require hospitalization. Covid-19’s lingering effects count her among an expanding population of so-called long-haulers -- survivors left with debilitating conditions who represent another insidious dimension of the pandemic.

It’s now known that SARS-CoV-2 will leave a portion of the more than 23 million people it’s infected with a litany of physical, cognitive and psychological impairments, like scarred lungs, post-viral fatigue and chronic heart damage. What’s still emerging is the extent to which the enduring disability will weigh on health systems and the labor force. That burden may continue the pandemic’s economic legacy for generations, adding to its unprecedented global cost -- predicted by Australian National University scholars to reach as much $35.3 trillion through 2025 as countries try to stop the virus’s spread.

More Stories:

‘False Dawn’ Recovery Haunts Virus Survivors Who Fall Sick Again

Covid-19’s Health Effects Can Last Long After Virus Is Gone

A Generation of Health Damage (Podcast)

Why Covid-19 Lingers (Podcast)

“The bottom line is that the physical, long-term health consequences are very serious for people’s welfare, and in economic terms,” said Hannes Schwandt, an assistant professor of education and social policy who studies well-being and economic outcomes at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois. “But, we don’t know enough about it yet.”

While it’s unclear how many survivors become long-haulers, a Covid-19 symptom study in the U.K. with more than 4 million participants found 1 in 10 people are sick for a least three weeks. People with mild cases of the disease are more likely to have a variety of “strange” symptoms that come and go over a longer period, according to Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, who is leading the study.

 

Weirder It Gets’

“The more we learn about coronavirus, the weirder it gets,” he said.

The still-evolving clinical picture, dearth of patient follow-up, and incomplete data on the number of people afflicted by Covid-19 make it difficult to predict the pandemic’s long-term health and economic consequences, according to Christopher J. Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.

“There’s enough out there to suggest it’s appreciable, and this is something we’re becoming interested in trying to measure,” said Murray, who has studied the global burden of disease for almost 30 years.

That information will be critical for anticipating and funding future health-care needs, said Thomas File, president of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

‘Significant Burden’

“If you look at the intermediate-term consequences right now, we’re already seeing it” on the lungs, heart, neurological and psychological systems, said File, who is also chair of infectious diseases at Summa Health, a hospital system in Akron, Ohio. “This is going to have a significant burden on our health-care system for years to come.”

The economic impact will be much greater if younger survivors endure decades of coronavirus-related disability, said Olga Jonas, a former economic adviser at the World Bank who studies the impact of contagions at Harvard University in Boston. Polio, a paralyzing disease, would have led to an estimated $215 billion in treatment costs in the U.S. from 1955 to 2015 had vaccines not become widely available, a 2006

 

[Well b back 3,190]

Is anyone else reading a regular theme in reports on deaths of people who did not think corona virus was for real, that ‘ had they had come forward earlier and got treatment, this may not have had the same outcome ‘. It’s as though there are some early treatments that help.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Is anyone else reading a regular theme in reports on deaths of people who did not think corona virus was for real, that ‘ had they had come forward earlier and got treatment, this may not have had the same outcome ‘. It’s as though there are some early treatments that help.

By coincidence I was looking at this article on the FT website (part of their freely available coverage) discussing why the increased case numbers are not, as yet, translating into increased numbers in hospital and deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/c011e214-fb95-4a64-b23c-2bd87ebb29d7

 

One factor they mention is that they're getting better at identifying who needs to go into hospital (and then better at treating them when they're there).  This would support your idea that people who are ducking it and not coming forward for help, could be missing out on treatment when they need it.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/amp/Article/2020-08-25-coronavirus-vaccine-steps-towards-a-safe-effective-and-accessible-vaccine?__twitter_impression=true This explains really well my point that we may have emergency use of the vaccine by October but it'll be probably early next year for it to reach full approval. I'm sure the politicians etc will be as helpful and patient as ever to let the scientists get on with their jobs...

Just gotta hope it works now!

[Well b back 3,190]

2 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/amp/Article/2020-08-25-coronavirus-vaccine-steps-towards-a-safe-effective-and-accessible-vaccine?__twitter_impression=true This explains really well my point that we may have emergency use of the vaccine by October but it'll be probably early next year for it to reach full approval. I'm sure the politicians etc will be as helpful and patient as ever to let the scientists get on with their jobs...

Just gotta hope it works now!

Going by the latest fiascos if the scientists say it’s safe he won’t go with it, if they say it is not safe he will lol.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

T

[Well b back 3,190]

For got to write my text.

The FT are reporting that governments are being asked to give legal indemnities for any vaccine. If governments are agreeing then forget it won’t be happening until next year end, they are pushing for soon I reckon

[Well b back 3,190]

Just found this little snippet hidden away. Note the US are funding a trial in the U.K. working closely with Oxford and AstraZeneca. They seem to be very close considering ‘ there are no deals ‘. Why aren’t we funding this ?.

AstraZeneca has started a Phase 1 clinical trial of its drug AZD7442, a combination of two monoclonal antibodies, for the prevention and treatment of Covid-19. The trial, funded by the US Government, will include up to 48 healthy participants in the UK aged 18 to 55.

A so-called monoclonal antibody combination works by mimicking the body's natural antibodies.

[Well b back 3,190]

Right I have scoured the web. I have searched every nook and cranny and nowhere can I find AstraZeneca or Oxford denying they have done a deal with America. I have found 1 or 2 politicians saying ‘ AstraZeneca have said ‘ but there are no sources. 

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

38 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Right I have scoured the web. I have searched every nook and cranny and nowhere can I find AstraZeneca or Oxford denying they have done a deal with America. I have found 1 or 2 politicians saying ‘ AstraZeneca have said ‘ but there are no sources. 

Often times what is not said is as significant as what is said. 

[Well b back 3,190]

13 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Often times what is not said is as significant as what is said. 

Hi RTB

Yep everyone seems to be coming out saying AstraZeneca said x and their comments are usually in the public domain. There is nothing about their denial, but there is a couple of snippets thanking the US for their extra 1.2 billion investment.

 

 

[Well b back 3,190]

Here’s an interesting article on the flu jab, I suspect the uptake this year will get much higher. This article also mentions how COVID has its long term effects especially on the younger people. I really think PHE and the government should be explaining this to the younger members of society, maybe that will persuade some of them it does effect them to ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53889184

 

[Well b back 3,190]

Well China seem ready. I wonder if there will be a bit of pushing from Trump ie we will give you the trade deal, you give us the vaccine.

Also worth noting the Chinese feel other Countries vaccines will be launched by December, that just adds to Oxford October, November, December.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53917315

[Well b back 3,190]

This must be the drug we saw mentioned yesterday, trial in U.K. funded by US.

AstraZeneca has started trials for a drug which could work as a preventative option for healthy people or slow the disease’s progression in those who are already infected. 

[Well b back 3,190]

This is the link to the link that I just put up. As always I will stand to be corrected, but I am reading this as AstraZeneca and Oxford have not denied at all the Trump story about having the vaccine early. If I have read it right 30,000 Americans are about to enter the trial ( contrary to the report the other day that they were struggling to get to the 50,000 ). The safety data is already out and the next step is the effectiveness ( did they not say they needed 38 infections to test if they were mainly from the placebo or vaccinated groups ). Now here’s the bit, it is then upto individual governments ( please tell me if I have got it wrong ) to regulate based on the evidence from AstraZeneca. Trump is saying ( rightly or wrongly ) he would give immediate emergency use, we are saying ( hence Whiteys comments ) it could take upto a year for the U.K. to approve the vaccine. I sense a black market coming up in the sale of vaccines. China are already saying theirs will be for sale from December for £140.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/25/astrazeneca-covid-19-antibody-drug-trial-volunteers-vaccine

[Well b back 3,190]

Morning all

This is in our friend the NY Times. They are talking about the US which places into question if correct what we are being told. They also confirm that the US have given AstraZeneca / Oxford $1.2 BILLION which does not tie in with the quotes attributed to AstraZeneca regards the U.K. earlier in the week. They have also confirmed volunteers are now being vaccinated as part of the trial. Again if that is true that contradicts what we are being told that they are struggling to get 50,000 volunteers.

As a side issue last night, no masks, no social distancing at Trumps thing last night, I wonder ( as a conspiracy theory ) if they had all been given the jab.

AstraZeneca has indicated they might be able to start delivering emergency vaccines as early as October, depending on the outcome of the studies. The company has said their total manufacturing capacity for the vaccine, if approved, stands at two billion doses. India’s Serum Institute has already produced millions of doses to be used in trials.