Come on Sarah

[Well b back 3,200]

It puzzles me today. The headlines on bbc and itv are Begum and Archer, yet as we all know today there will be a major announcement on a vaccine ( and probably treatment ). Is this just lazy journalism or is positive news not something worth shouting about.

[Barbe bleu 822]

5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

It puzzles me today. The headlines on bbc and itv are Begum and Archer, yet as we all know today there will be a major announcement on a vaccine ( and probably treatment ). Is this just lazy journalism or is positive news not something worth shouting about.

To be fair the announcement will be the news, not the announcement that there will be an announcement.

That said I have found the press on this and on immunity in general disappointing.  For instance, we were discussing t cell immunity in April but its taken until july for this to filter into the populat press and I dont recall seeing  much about how clinical trials are usually  phased and how this relates to this vaccinr trial.

I suspect that this says a lot about staffing in the mass media and what it sees as its primary roles.

 

[Well b back 3,200]

6 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

To be fair the announcement will be the news, not the announcement that there will be an announcement.

That said I have found the press on this and on immunity in general disappointing.  For instance, we were discussing t cell immunity in April but its taken until july for this to filter into the populat press and I dont recall seeing  much about how clinical trials are usually  phased and how this relates to this vaccinr trial.

I suspect that this says a lot about staffing in the mass media and what it sees as its primary roles.

 

Yes the initial report from lancet is now in the public domain via Jenners website. This tells us all we need to know on the positive news regards T cells etc. Most of it goes way over my head but clearly phase 1 was successful. It is the foreign press that is reporting phase 3 is ready to assess, but that was 2 weeks ago. I suspect though that there are not quite enough to offer conclusive evidence, but enough to convince them as Adrian Hill is one of the signatories of the letter asking for ‘ Human Challenge ‘ trials to commence immediately. 

[Well b back 3,200]

Interestingly it is now thought COVID 19 has possibly been with us for a lot longer than first thought but was not the killer it has become.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/pandemic-virus-slowly-mutating-it-getting-more-dangerous

[Well b back 3,200]

I find it interest that since the day results of phase 1 were to be released the world has gone quiet. I was wondering if this is because we now have results for phase 3 as well ( being optimistic ) or being negative it has all gone wrong. Possibly just coincidence, but it does seem strange as to why Johnson is predicting the possibility of a normal Christmas.

[Van wink 2,994]

15 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Interestingly it is now thought COVID 19 has possibly been with us for a lot longer than first thought but was not the killer it has become.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/pandemic-virus-slowly-mutating-it-getting-more-dangerous

It would help explain the suggestion that there is some residual community immunity. 
 

[Well b back 3,200]

There seem to be 6 different levels of the disease.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/17/covid-19-symptoms-falls-into-six-different-groupings-study-finds-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Van wink 2,994]

34 minutes ago, Well b back said:

There seem to be 6 different levels of the disease.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/17/covid-19-symptoms-falls-into-six-different-groupings-study-finds-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Data from the COVID Symptom Study has revealed six distinct ‘types’ of COVID-19, which has major implications for treatment and monitoring.

Analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Study app, led by researchers from King’s College London and the health technology company ZOE, reveals that there are six distinct ‘types’ of COVID-19, each distinguished by a particular cluster of symptoms. Moreover, the team found that these types differed in the severity of the disease and the need for respiratory support during hospitalisation.

The findings have major implications for clinical management of COVID-19, and could help doctors predict who is most at risk and likely to need hospital care in a second wave of coronavirus infections.

Launched in March in the UK and extended to the US and Sweden, the COVID Symptom Study app asks participants to log their health and any new potential symptoms of COVID-19 on a daily basis. With more than 4 million users, this represents the largest study of its kind in the world.

Although continuous cough, fever and loss of smell (anosmia) are usually highlighted as the three key symptoms of COVID-19, data gathered from app users shows that people can experience a wide range of different symptoms including headaches, muscle pains, fatigue, diarrhoea, confusion, loss of appetite, shortness of breath and more.* The progression and outcomes also vary significantly between people, ranging from mild flu-like symptoms or a simple rash to severe or fatal disease.

To find out whether particular symptoms tend to appear together and how this related to the progression of the disease, the research team used a machine learning algorithm to analyse data from a subset of around 1,600 users in the UK and US with confirmed COVID-19 who had regularly logged their symptoms using the app in March and April. 

The analysis revealed six specific groupings of symptoms emerging at characteristic timepoints in the progression of the illness, representing six distinct ‘types’ of COVID-19. The algorithm was then tested by running it on a second independent dataset of 1,000 users in the UK, US and Sweden, who had logged their symptoms during May.

All people reporting symptoms experienced headache and loss of smell, with varying combinations of additional symptoms at various times. Some of these, such as confusion, abdominal pain and shortness of breath, are not widely known as COVID-19 symptoms, yet are hallmarks of the most severe forms of the disease.

The six clusters are as follows:

1 (‘flu-like’ with no fever): Headache, loss of smell, muscle pains, cough, sore throat, chest pain, no fever.

2 (‘flu-like’ with fever): Headache, loss of smell, cough, sore throat, hoarseness, fever, loss of appetite.

3 (gastrointestinal): Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, diarrhea, sore throat, chest pain, no cough.

4 (severe level one, fatigue): Headache, loss of smell, cough, fever, hoarseness, chest pain, fatigue.

5 (severe level two, confusion):Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain.

6 (severe level three, abdominal and respiratory): Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain, shortness of breath, diarrhea, abdominal pain.

Next, the team investigated whether people experiencing particular symptom clusters were more likely to require breathing support in the form of ventilation or additional oxygen. 

They discovered that only 1.5% of people with cluster 1, 4.4% of people with cluster 2 and 3.3% of people with cluster 3 COVID-19 required breathing support. These figures were 8.6%, 9.9% and 19.8% for clusters 4,5 and 6 respectively. Furthermore, nearly half of the patients in cluster 6 ended up in hospital, compared with just 16% of those in cluster 1.

Broadly, people with cluster 4,5 or 6 COVID-19 symptoms tended to be older and frailer, and were more likely to be overweight and have pre-existing conditions such as diabetes or lung disease than those with type 1,2 or 3. 

The researchers then developed a model combining information about age, ****, BMI and pre-existing conditions together with symptoms gathered over just five days from the onset of the illness. 

This was able to predict which cluster a patient falls into and their risk of requiring hospitalisation and breathing support with a higher likelihood of being correct than an existing risk model based purely on age, ****, BMI and pre-existing conditions alone.

Given that most people who require breathing support come to hospital around 13 days after their first symptoms, this extra eight days represents a significant ‘early warning’ as to who is most likely to need more intensive care.

“These findings have important implications for care and monitoring of people who are most vulnerable to severe COVID-19,” explains consultant geriatrician Dr Claire Steves, one of the team working on the study. “If you can predict who these people are at day five, you have time to give them support and early interventions such as monitoring blood oxygen and sugar levels, and ensuring they are properly hydrated - simple care that could be given at home, preventing hospitalisations and saving lives.”

Lead researcher Dr Carole Sudre said:

”Our study illustrates the importance of monitoring symptoms over time to make our predictions about individual risk and outcomes more sophisticated and accurate. This approach is helping us to understand the unfolding story of this disease in each patient so they can get the best care.”

The study highlights the importance of using technology like the COVID Symptom Study app to monitor health and spot the earliest signs of coronavirus infection. 

“Being able to gather big datasets through the app and apply machine learning to them is having a profound impact on our understanding of the extent and impact of COVID-19, and human health more widely,” said Sebastien Ourselin, professor of healthcare engineering at King’s College London and senior author of the study.

COVID Symptom Study lead Professor Tim Spector added:

"Data is our most powerful tool in the fight against COVID-19. We urge everyone to get in the habit of using the app daily to log their health over the coming months, helping us to stay ahead of any local hotspots or a second wave of infections.”

A paper detailing the results is available online as a pre-print, and has been submitted to a scientific journal for rapid peer review and publication.

 

[sonyc 5,510]

@Well b back and @Van wink....as an early 'signee' to the King's College app, I think this article provides some of the clearest and most practical information I've read about C19. It should be used (if not indeed supported by further research) to provide the basis ahead for public health messaging and clinical treatments. 

The app is quite interesting, dare I say exciting in some respects, because by daily inputs you can see how technology could form a much more central part of our everyday lives and especially health. Of course you can also see how we start to get closer to the Chinese way of self reporting and surveillance, which will worry some about privacy. Yet, as a preventative measure surely a ZOE type app 'checking in' system will be part of our lives ahead. Over 4m people are signed to it, a non inconsiderable cohort.

On another positive point, at long last (and maybe 3 months late),  we're hearing that interventions for tackling C19 are being delegated more and more to local authorities. As trust in central administration messaging is weakening, we may become more trusting of local administrations, who know 'their' communities better.

Now, we just need to hear more about those trials and timeframes for potential vaccines. The residual or natural immunity research (Oxford University) is also of great value. 

All these things together start to map out how we are going to have to live with this virus ahead with greater information and confidence.

Edited July 18, 2020 by sonyc

[Well b back 3,200]

30 minutes ago, sonyc said:

@Well b back and @Van wink....as an early 'signee' to the King's College app, I think this article provides some of the clearest and most practical information I've read about C19. It should be used (if not indeed supported by further research) to provide the basis ahead for public health messaging and clinical treatments. 

The app is quite interesting, dare I say exciting in some respects, because by daily inputs you can see how technology could form a much more central part of our everyday lives and especially health. Of course you can also see how we start to get closer to the Chinese way of self reporting and surveillance, which will worry some about privacy. Yet, as a preventative measure surely a ZOE type app 'checking in' system will be part of our lives ahead. Over 4m people are signed to it, a non inconsiderable cohort.

On another positive point, at long last (and maybe 3 months late),  we're hearing that interventions for tackling C19 are being delegated more and more to local authorities. As trust in central administration messaging is weakening, we may become more trusting of local administrations, who know 'their' communities better.

Now, we just need to hear more about those trials and timeframes for potential vaccines. The residual or natural immunity research (Oxford University) is also of great value. 

All these things together start to map out how we are going to have to live with this virus ahead with greater information and confidence.

Spot on.

I have begun following this as it now has regular updates on Jenners website.

One worrying piece of data however is despite what we are being told, according to data from this app, since 1/7 when things started to relax infections are increasing across the country.

On your last point I am wondering why when certainly results of phase 1 of the vaccine are available they are not yet in the public domain.

[sonyc 5,510]

Yes, the numbers have shown an increase in the last week (1400 to over 2000). It is a concern. But, we know that perhaps nothing has really changed since indeed March in terms of prevalence but now R is around 1 and not 3. Nipping it as it grows in local outbreaks  is going to be a feature of the news for months isn't it?

[Van wink 2,994]

27 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, the numbers have shown an increase in the last week (1400 to over 2000). It is a concern. But, we know that perhaps nothing has really changed since indeed March in terms of prevalence but now R is around 1 and not 3. Nipping it as it grows in local outbreaks  is going to be a feature of the news for months isn't it?

Yes indeed I have been reporting for many months and indeed have tried to get others to sign up. I have been getting my data from here and as I posted elsewhere the rate of infection is static at best, probably on the upside with what appears to be an increase in North Norfolk. 
It sounds as if Local authorities are to get more powers to deal with the outbreak, long overdue. 

Edited July 18, 2020 by Van wink

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

On 16/07/2020 at 13:00, Well b back said:

It puzzles me today. The headlines on bbc and itv are Begum and Archer, yet as we all know today there will be a major announcement on a vaccine ( and probably treatment ). Is this just lazy journalism or is positive news not something worth shouting about.

Its the lead story in the Telegraph

[Well b back 3,200]

2 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Its the lead story in the Telegraph

Thanks rock the boat. Link below for the first part but can’t get to the main stories. Surely this should be headlines, what am I missing ?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-vaccine-news-uk-update-oxford-russia-covid-19/

[sonyc 5,510]

https://www.ft.com/content/5cf2ee49-df7a-4990-b337-860cf7737b2f

More on T cells here but also a note that Oxford will be publishing the first clinical trial results tomorrow.

Worth sharing this too for the Immune System diagram (do love a decent diagram!).

[Well b back 3,200]

So yesterday we heard from the scientists telling us the main mutation was actually helping. Today the bbc have changed a few words here and there to make it seem the mutation ‘ could ‘ be more dangerous.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53325771

[Well b back 3,200]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

https://www.ft.com/content/5cf2ee49-df7a-4990-b337-860cf7737b2f

More on T cells here but also a note that Oxford will be publishing the first clinical trial results tomorrow.

Worth sharing this too for the Immune System diagram (do love a decent diagram!).

Initially the results were coming out last week. With my optimist hat on I hope it’s because they also have clues regards phase 3 as reported in other countries. I have a feeling this will all be mega positive as I cannot see why Boris indicated we would be back to normal at Christmas ( he hoped ).

[sonyc 5,510]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Initially the results were coming out last week. With my optimist hat on I hope it’s because they also have clues regards phase 3 as reported in other countries. I have a feeling this will all be mega positive as I cannot see why Boris indicated we would be back to normal at Christmas ( he hoped ).

Perhaps a Monday is a better day for good news than the possibility that it could be lost on a Sunday?!

[Barbe bleu 822]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

https://www.ft.com/content/5cf2ee49-df7a-4990-b337-860cf7737b2f

More on T cells here but also a note that Oxford will be publishing the first clinical trial results tomorrow.

Worth sharing this too for the Immune System diagram (do love a decent diagram!).

The article begins:

"Scientists who have spent months focused on the role of antibodies in fighting Covid-19 are beginning to suspect that a lesser known part of the immune system is equally crucial: T-cells."

Given that we have been discussing t ceels for months I dont think it is accurate to say that "scientists are beginning to suspect". I think it should probably read " journalists are finally catching  up with what scientists have suspected for months".

I wonder how many journalists in the mass media have any science training.

 

[Well b back 3,200]

5 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

The article begins:

"Scientists who have spent months focused on the role of antibodies in fighting Covid-19 are beginning to suspect that a lesser known part of the immune system is equally crucial: T-cells."

Given that we have been discussing t ceels for months I dont think it is accurate to say that "scientists are beginning to suspect". I think it should probably read " journalists are finally catching  up with what scientists have suspected for months".

I wonder how many journalists in the mass media have any science training.

 

Spot on it’s bazaar. Jenner announced ( recorded in this thread ) that it seemed T cells were being produced a couple of months ago. They stated that this was after the second dose of the vaccine. The press reported that as though it wasn’t working ( which it wasn’t with one dose ). They also reported the 6 monkey experiment as the vaccine not working as opposed to the vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it, but stops it getting on your lungs and killing you. It’s like the mutation story from bbc today giving doom and gloom, when we had scientists on here 2 weeks ago being very positive about the mutation.

What odds that Boris will be holding a press conference tomorrow to state what we on here have known for 3 weeks. It’s as though the press don’t want Covid to go away as they will actually have to work to get stories. 

[Well b back 3,200]

So the US have spent $1.2 Billion buying a billion doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. What a waste of money if there is no evidence it works ! I am getting good vibes about tomorrow.

The US last week secured almost a third of the first 1bn doses planned for AstraZeneca’s experimental Covid-19 vaccine by pledging up to $1.2bn.

 

 

[Well b back 3,200]

Now this is interesting. Apparently we have also now signed up to others. However I wonder if reading between the lines it’s because AstraZeneca does not work on everyone ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53469269

 

 

[Well b back 3,200]

Now surely this should be headlines. Looks like there is a new treatment that cures 80 % of HOSPITALISED patients wow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53467022

[Well b back 3,200]

The bbc still reckon it will be mid 2021. Reading this I reckon it is word for word what the US reports were saying a month ago.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51665497

[Well b back 3,200]

Confirmation that the 1st results are coming out today from the FTSE and FT. If I see a surge in the FTSE I will let you all know. Has anyone seen when Lancet are releasing the data ?. Still reckon it will be kept a secret and Boris will announce it as though he is solely responsible.

[Well b back 3,200]

Sorry my last message meant to include the article ( can’t get the link.

It's the question that could dictate the next year for Britain: does AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine work? The Lancet medical journal is today expected to publish the phase 1 clinical trial data for the British pharma giant's research collaboration with the University of Oxford.

The duo have been working on the vaccine candidate - which had been dubbed ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and now carries the more snappy moniker AZD1222.

Reports last week indicated that early stage human trials had been positive, lifting the FTSE 100. Today any confirmation of that could provide a further boost to the blue chip index. Traders are looking for any sign that the vaccine is effective enough to provide widespread immunity across the country, lifting public confidence and the chances of a decent economic recovery simultaneously.

The results will come on top of news that Britain has signed deals to secure 90 million doses of two possible coronavirus vaccines from the Pfizer and BioNTech (22UAy.F) alliance and French group Valneva.

The Government said the UK had secured 30 million doses of the experimental BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, and a deal in principle for 60 million doses of the Valneva vaccine, with a option of 40 million more doses if it was proven to be safe, effective and suitable.

European traders will be putting their focus on any signs of white smoke from the EU summit. The crunch meeting over a rescue fund kicked off on Friday, with the details of a €750 billion package set to be thrashed out. The Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark are the hold out nations, arguing against to €500 billion being allocated as grants without conditions.

[Van wink 2,994]

22 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Now surely this should be headlines. Looks like there is a new treatment that cures 80 % of HOSPITALISED patients wow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53467022

It was on the news this morning but not peer reviewed or approved. The BBC will rarely go big on a story unless the product is proven. On the face of it this really is great news.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Confirmation that the 1st results are coming out today from the FTSE and FT. If I see a surge in the FTSE I will let you all know. Has anyone seen when Lancet are releasing the data ?. Still reckon it will be kept a secret and Boris will announce it as though he is solely responsible.

From what I heard this morning it’s being played down a little. Certainly the timeline has been put back till end of the year due to the delay in setting up clinical trials outside of U.K. which is a shame. Astra Zeneca has already seen big moves hasn’t it, I suspect the market may have already priced in the phase 1 results

[Well b back 3,200]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

From what I heard this morning it’s being played down a little. Certainly the timeline has been put back till end of the year due to the delay in setting up clinical trials outside of U.K. which is a shame. Astra Zeneca has already seen big moves hasn’t it, I suspect the market may have already priced in the phase 1 results

They did, but it was dependent the next move on the lancet report. I suspect if they have moved the date to the end of the year this will push it back down again.

i am trying to volunteer to take it now ( there is a link on one of the things I put on this morning ) but it is so slow getting back to me. Will update later.

[Well b back 3,200]

I don’t get it. The foreign press have been telling us for weeks the positive news re the phase 1 results, yet hours before they are released Boris just spoke and seems to have no idea at all.