Come on Sarah

[sonyc 5,511]

Thought this was a useful table. Not sure where to put it but best here I think.

 

 

 

[Well b back 3,201]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Thought this was a useful table. Not sure where to put it but best here I think.

 

 

 

Thanks Sonyc

Just shows how we need to get jabbing.

 

[Well b back 3,201]

Moderna now approved in EU with a conditional market use approval as opposed to emergency use. Like every country / region I wish them well and get those jabs in the arms.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-recommends-covid-19-vaccine-moderna-authorisation-eu

[Well b back 3,201]

Let the games commence, India to start their mass vaccination of 1 billion Monday and Covax nations from 3 - 4 weeks ( Covax subject to W.H.O. approval. A special good luck to these guys especially the Serum Institute who will be responsible for 60 % of the world.

 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/all-india-vaccine-rollout-set-for-next-week-govt/articleshow/80123824.cms

[CANARYKING 637]

Local Care Home just had their delivery cancelled for the second time

[Van wink 2,994]

"Pfizer Inc and BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine appeared to work against a key mutation in the highly transmissible new variants of the coronavirus discovered in the UK and South Africa, according to a laboratory study conducted by the US drugmaker.

The not-yet peer reviewed study by Pfizer and scientists from the University of Texas Medical Branch indicated the vaccine was effective in neutralizing virus with the so-called N501Y mutation of the spike protein.

The mutation could be responsible for greater transmissibility and there had been concern it could also make the virus escape antibody neutralization elicited by the vaccine, said Phil Dormitzer, one of Pfizer's top viral vaccine scientists."

[sonyc 5,511]

There's a report just uploaded on this story in the Independent just now VW

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/10/must-treat-rollout-vaccines-asa-military-operation-delays-not/

fairly interesting article calling for more urgency to the vaccine rollout. I'm genuinely much less optimistic than I was a month ago that we are going to get this out as quick as we should have.

Hancocks comments this morning suggesting everyone will have been "offered a jab by Autumn" fill me with a real concern that we are going to spend 2021 even more locked down than 2020.

Seems like if they open up somewhat around Easter time, it's basically a race between the virus and the vaccine to get to us "young and healthy" and I can only see the virus winning if I'm not sorted with a vaccine until Autumn

[Well b back 3,201]

35 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/10/must-treat-rollout-vaccines-asa-military-operation-delays-not/

fairly interesting article calling for more urgency to the vaccine rollout. I'm genuinely much less optimistic than I was a month ago that we are going to get this out as quick as we should have.

Hancocks comments this morning suggesting everyone will have been "offered a jab by Autumn" fill me with a real concern that we are going to spend 2021 even more locked down than 2020.

Seems like if they open up somewhat around Easter time, it's basically a race between the virus and the vaccine to get to us "young and healthy" and I can only see the virus winning if I'm not sorted with a vaccine until Autumn

Hi TJ

Our strategy may well lead to what you mention. My view is effectively what’s happening is we have gone for a strategy of 50 - 70 % immunity ( depends on the vaccine used ) whereas the rest of the world ( Sweden aside currently ) is going for a 90 - 95% immunity. With WHO and many countries suggesting our strategy is based on guesswork I do hope we don’t mess this up. This is the view of Israel, although it should be noted that AstraZeneca are recommending 8 - 12 weeks as they feel their efficacy increases.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/an-act-of-desperation-uks-delay-of-second-vaccine-dose-comes-under-fire/

[Barbe bleu 823]

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/10/must-treat-rollout-vaccines-asa-military-operation-delays-not/

fairly interesting article calling for more urgency to the vaccine rollout. I'm genuinely much less optimistic than I was a month ago that we are going to get this out as quick as we should have.

Hancocks comments this morning suggesting everyone will have been "offered a jab by Autumn" fill me with a real concern that we are going to spend 2021 even more locked down than 2020.

Seems like if they open up somewhat around Easter time, it's basically a race between the virus and the vaccine to get to us "young and healthy" and I can only see the virus winning if I'm not sorted with a vaccine until Autumn

I am not sure that there is much magic in the phrase 'by autumn'.   If I recall correctly this came up because the interviewer asked if all adults would be vaccinated by autumn.  It doesn't necessarily mean that this is the government target.

My quick maths is that the adult population of the UK is a little under 54 million.  At 200,000 jabs a day (apparently the current rate and assuming its it 7 days a week) the task would be complete by mid September.

If we ignore prior infection and assuming a very pessimistic R0 of 5 we would be at HIT by mid July.

If we factor in prior infection and assume we are picking up 50% then HIT will be reached at the end of June with the day getting closer the more spread there is between now and then.

If we can keep this rate up or improve it we will have a summer holiday. I have deliberate used figures that are quite pessimistic from this point of view (ie i would we surprised if we had picked up even close to 50% of infections or if R0 was 5. I have though ignored children for the purposes of HIT)

 

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[Well b back 3,201]

3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I am not sure that there is much magic in the phrase 'by autumn'.   If I recall correctly this came up because the interviewer asked if all adults would be vaccinated by autumn.  It doesn't necessarily mean that this is the government target.

My quick maths is that the adult population of the UK is a little under 54 million.  At 200,000 jabs a day (apparently the current rate and assuming its it 7 days a week) the task would be complete by mid September.

If we ignore prior infection and assuming a very pessimistic R0 of 5 we would be at HIT by mid July.

If we factor in prior infection and assume we are picking up 50% then HIT will be reached at the end of June with the day getting closer the more spread there is between now and then.

If we can keep this rate up or improve it we will have a summer holiday. I have deliberate used figures that are quite pessimistic from this point of view (ie i would we surprised if we had picked up even close to 50% of infections or if R0 was 5. I have though ignored children for the purposes of HIT)

 

 

Hi BB

Dont forget that although we have delayed our second jab for Pfizer, this will still need to be given as will the second AstraZeneca jab. 13.5 million 2nd jabs will need to be given in March and April, which will have to be given as a priority above first jabs of groups 5 - 8. Currently we are averaging 48,000 jabs per week but that’s up from 43,000 jabs a week last week and will increase ( hopefully substantially) week by week. They are average figures so the current weekly figure will be much higher. We need to be upto 2.4 million jabs a week within the next 10 days to hit the February target.

[Indy 3,297]

It’s sad that yet again this government bull****e the electorate by over promising and under delivering.

The reality is some vaccine sites on Friday run out of vaccines, turned folk away, I believe it was in Essex.

I believe it is that the over 70 make up nearly 80% of all hospital admissions at present, so if we can close that with vaccinations by April the hospitals won’t be overwhelmed and we can all cope with Covid as it is now, so we will go back to a level of normality once these are all done, it’s around 24 million for the top 9 groups which should be done by June!

Its clear we need to speed up the vaccinations and hopefully with the armed forces involved alongside the NHS I have confidence in them to get there, not our government certainly not.

[Well b back 3,201]

@Barbe bleu

Hi again, I can see where you have got that figure of 200,000 a day from now, I have put the quote below. It will be interesting when the figure comes out tomorrow to see how close to 2.7 million it is ie 1.3 million last Sunday plus 1.4 million this week as my understanding was that AstraZeneca didn’t start arriving at sites until Tuesday. Be great if it’s correct, but that seems to be more vaccine than we had.

How many people have been vaccinated in the UK so far?

Rolling out mass testing and vaccines has been a focus for the scientists and politicians this morning. 

More than 1.2 million people in the UK had received a Covid-19 vaccine in the UK as of 3 January, according to the latest government figures. 

Vaccines are being given to the most vulnerable first, as set out in a list of nine high-priority groups. 

The government aims to offer vaccines to everyone in the top four of these priority groups by mid-February - around 13 million people. 

Health Secretary Matt Hancock reiterated that time goal this morning - saying 15 February.

This covers all residents in care homes for older adults and their carers, all over-70s, anyone who is clinically extremely vulnerable and frontline health and social care workers 

To meet this target, ministers need to deliver more than two million jabs a week by the end of January

Earlier today, Hancock also said everyone over the age of 18 would be offered a coronavirus vaccine by the autumn. 

He said the UK was now vaccinating more than 200,000 people a day and around a third of all over-80s had received a jab.

[Well b back 3,201]

10 minutes ago, Indy said:

It’s sad that yet again this government bull****e the electorate by over promising and under delivering.

The reality is some vaccine sites on Friday run out of vaccines, turned folk away, I believe it was in Essex.

I believe it is that the over 70 make up nearly 80% of all hospital admissions at present, so if we can close that with vaccinations by April the hospitals won’t be overwhelmed and we can all cope with Covid as it is now, so we will go back to a level of normality once these are all done, it’s around 24 million for the top 9 groups which should be done by June!

Its clear we need to speed up the vaccinations and hopefully with the armed forces involved alongside the NHS I have confidence in them to get there, not our government certainly not.

But Mr Johnson said the top 8 groups would be done by March lol. It maybe possible but we cannot compare our figures to most of the rest of the world using Pfizer as they will be issuing their second jab within 28 days.

[Well b back 3,201]

@Indy

Should have also said this operation is huge the logistics of this are not like the flu jab. Things will get easier but to vaccinate 800 on Friday I reckon it took us about 70 people ( most didn’t work the 12 hours ). It will get easier, especially if we can move on from emergency usage.

[Barbe bleu 823]

25 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi BB

Dont forget that although we have delayed our second jab for Pfizer, this will still need to be given as will the second AstraZeneca jab.

Yes, very true.  If there was no increase in rate we would need to push the dates back by three months.  So everyone with at least one jab by the end of the year and HIT in the autumn.

So the government does need to double the rate before April to have jabs in veryone by autumn and two in many.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

It’s sad that yet again this government bull****e the electorate by over promising and under delivering.

The reality is some vaccine sites on Friday run out of vaccines, turned folk away, I believe it was in Essex.

I believe it is that the over 70 make up nearly 80% of all hospital admissions at present, so if we can close that with vaccinations by April the hospitals won’t be overwhelmed and we can all cope with Covid as it is now, so we will go back to a level of normality once these are all done, it’s around 24 million for the top 9 groups which should be done by June!

Its clear we need to speed up the vaccinations and hopefully with the armed forces involved alongside the NHS I have confidence in them to get there, not our government certainly not.

I would rather read that people were being turned away because vaccines had all gone into people's arms than read vaccines had to be poured down the drain because people hadn't turned up. The vaccine has a very short shelf life and is difficult to store and as WBB posted the other day, the logistics are a headache. 

At least the process is underway and we are heading out of the tunnel. Other countries are looking at not even receiving the vaccine until the end of the year so we should consider ourselves in a very fortunate position 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Rock The Boat

[CANARYKING 637]

Just read that the delivery of vaccines to the Southwold Surgery has been cancelled, no new date known. Was due to start Monday, this covers Beccles, Bungay, Halesworth, Southwold and surrounding villages, not a good start !

[Indy 3,297]

41 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Just read that the delivery of vaccines to the Southwold Surgery has been cancelled, no new date known. Was due to start Monday, this covers Beccles, Bungay, Halesworth, Southwold and surrounding villages, not a good start !

Not according to RTB, he’d rather not have the vaccine to distribute than poor it down the drain! I despair how some people view things.

This is another balls up by our brilliant government, by no doubt the worst government in many a generation! Lies, bumbling and totally self indulgent bunch of ****.

[Indy 3,297]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

@Indy

Should have also said this operation is huge the logistics of this are not like the flu jab. Things will get easier but to vaccinate 800 on Friday I reckon it took us about 70 people ( most didn’t work the 12 hours ). It will get easier, especially if we can move on from emergency usage.

WBB really appreciate everyone involved in this you guys deserve a lot of thanks from us also need proper support from the government, something which I doubt you’ll get fully. Good luck fingers crossed you guys get deliveries in a timely manner.

[Indy 3,297]

54 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I would rather read that people were being turned away because vaccines had all gone into people's arms than read vaccines had to be poured down the drain because people hadn't turned up. The vaccine has a very short shelf life and is difficult to store and as WBB posted the other day, the logistics are a headache. 

At least the process is underway and we are heading out of the tunnel. Other countries are looking at not even receiving the vaccine until the end of the year so we should consider ourselves in a very fortunate position 

Why try to benchmark against the EU? Why not concentrate on the UK, you wanted out so what the EU does shouldn’t matter to you, you need to take your own government into account on their promises and performance, makes no difference to you how anyone else does!

[Well b back 3,201]

17 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I would rather read that people were being turned away because vaccines had all gone into people's arms than read vaccines had to be poured down the drain because people hadn't turned up. The vaccine has a very short shelf life and is difficult to store and as WBB posted the other day, the logistics are a headache. 

At least the process is underway and we are heading out of the tunnel. Other countries are looking at not even receiving the vaccine until the end of the year so we should consider ourselves in a very fortunate position 

 

11 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Just read that the delivery of vaccines to the Southwold Surgery has been cancelled, no new date known. Was due to start Monday, this covers Beccles, Bungay, Halesworth, Southwold and surrounding villages, not a good start !

After seeing everything first hand, the real concern I have is because of the information we are given, people expect that to be correct. I know I got a bit of stick for saying it but I do think it is really important to explain the problems correctly, as RTB says our country along with other countries are in a fortunate position and people will really understand. Even if it is telling people in the early days there will be disruption to getting the vaccine out for general use as we cannot predict when the initial supplies will be available.

I hope Canary King your delivery is AstraZeneca as opposed to Pfizer as at least appointments can just be moved on. If it is Pfizer it could turn up tonight. It will be defrosted so has a 4 day shelf life. Realistically you ain’t going to get 10 - 15 vaccinators there next morning let alone 400 patients if they have just all had their appointments cancelled. What you finish up with is having to do 4 days vaccinating in 2 days. If it’s your 1st delivery it takes the first day to work out what is quickest, just like the virus is new so is the distribution, and delivery of the vaccine.

When these initial things will be sorted, I have no idea I hope it will be next week, but I have no idea. Maybe as well it’s just the first delivery, that will become clearer next week.

 

[Indy 3,297]

12 minutes ago, Well b back said:

 

After seeing everything first hand, the real concern I have is because of the information we are given, people expect that to be correct. I know I got a bit of stick for saying it but I do think it is really important to explain the problems correctly, as RTB says our country along with other countries are in a fortunate position and people will really understand. Even if it is telling people in the early days there will be disruption to getting the vaccine out for general use as we cannot predict when the initial supplies will be available.

I hope Canary King your delivery is AstraZeneca as opposed to Pfizer as at least appointments can just be moved on. If it is Pfizer it could turn up tonight. It will be defrosted so has a 4 day shelf life. Realistically you ain’t going to get 10 - 15 vaccinators there next morning let alone 400 patients if they have just all had their appointments cancelled. What you finish up with is having to do 4 days vaccinating in 2 days. If it’s your 1st delivery it takes the first day to work out what is quickest, just like the virus is new so is the distribution, and delivery of the vaccine.

When these initial things will be sorted, I have no idea I hope it will be next week, but I have no idea. Maybe as well it’s just the first delivery, that will become clearer next week.

 

Just a quick note on Pfizer, from notes from Reuters , the vials are sent out in Pfizer storage boxes which can keep the vails good for longer up to 15 days with correct storage and 5 days in a normal medical refrigerator. Not sure what your experience is over the past week, but surely if the vaccines are scheduled they should be delivered?

Edited January 10, 2021 by Indy

[Well b back 3,201]

I am going to move back onto some really good news. Whatever we all think about any country some of the most important people to rid the world of this will be The Serum Institute of India. With the WHO stating that 60 - 70 % of the world need to be vaccinated to start to control ( or rid us ) of this disease tomorrow all their build up changes from theory to reality. Tomorrow they will commence supplying the vaccine to the Indian population, and if you think our targets have some logistics, theirs are to vaccinate 300 million by July, that’s 1.5 million per day. In addition to that they aim to supply The WHO 1.7 billion doses by August via Covax, that will commence in 6 weeks time.

Good luck Serum in this massive task.

[Daz Sparks 1,152]

23 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I am going to move back onto some really good news. Whatever we all think about any country some of the most important people to rid the world of this will be The Serum Institute of India. With the WHO stating that 60 - 70 % of the world need to be vaccinated to start to control ( or rid us ) of this disease tomorrow all their build up changes from theory to reality. Tomorrow they will commence supplying the vaccine to the Indian population, and if you think our targets have some logistics, theirs are to vaccinate 300 million by July, that’s 1.5 million per day. In addition to that they aim to supply The WHO 1.7 billion doses by August via Covax, that will commence in 6 weeks time.

Good luck Serum in this massive task.

Good luck from me too. And thanks for the info WBB.

[Well b back 3,201]

12 minutes ago, Indy said:

Just a quick note on Pfizer, from notes from Reuters , the vials are sent out in Pfizer storage boxes which can keep the vails good for longer up to 15 days with correct storage and 5 days in a normal medical refrigerator. Not sure what your experience is over the past week, but surely if the vaccines are scheduled they should be delivered?

I am not a doctor, but as I understand it they are dated for usage from when they are defrosted. Outside the hospitals few distribution points will have the freezers needed, so they go straight into fridges. Hence the 4 days ( not disputing 5 just what I was told ). I am assuming under emergency usage they have to be defrosted under certain conditions. You must be able to have them frozen for sometime as most countries other than us and Sweden save a second dose for 21 to 28 days, so where they say they have vaccinated x number they have actually used twice as many doses ( hope that makes sense ), except Belgium who have now had guarantees ( for obvious reasons ) that they will be supplied 2nd doses so won’t have to hold any back.

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

@Indy

Should have also said this operation is huge the logistics of this are not like the flu jab. Things will get easier but to vaccinate 800 on Friday I reckon it took us about 70 people ( most didn’t work the 12 hours ). It will get easier, especially if we can move on from emergency usage.

So the “emergency usage” is the categorisation of the current current approval?

Any idea what sort of timescale we are looking at for full approval? Is the emergency approval because of the current regime of delaying the second jab or is there some other reason why it’s only at emergency level atm?

sorry for all the questions 

[Well b back 3,201]

31 minutes ago, Van wink said:

So the “emergency usage” is the categorisation of the current current approval?

Any idea what sort of timescale we are looking at for full approval? Is the emergency approval because of the current regime of delaying the second jab or is there some other reason why it’s only at emergency level atm?

sorry for all the questions 

Emergency usage is what the vaccine has been approved for. There are therefore lots of conditions. The AstraZeneca link below although it does not explain emergency usage, it shows how they will move to the next level and so on. You will also see the usage after emergency is conditional market authorisation is the next step for the U.K. which is what Europe and others went for. Australia for instance have time on their hands so they are waiting 3 months for full approval, however because of their new clusters they are likely to bring that forward and get a different approval by February. Pfizer and Moderna have conditional market usage in Europe and are trying to achieve the same for Oxford-AstraZeneca. This is why it really is impossible to compare like for like statistics.

Regards Pfizer for the second jab this is something that currently only the U.K. and Sweden to my knowledge are doing. It is however possible under Biden that 2nd doses are not held back, but it is not certain that, that means you won’t be given your 2nd dose within 21 - 28 days. This has caused a lot of concern from Pfizer and The WHO. There is no data that supports 8 - 12 weeks for Pfizer, this decision is taken because of our current situation. With regards the 8 - 12 weeks with Oxford-AstraZeneca, there is a bit of government spin here. It is not the governments idea to get everybody the jab quicker, it is the recommendation from AstraZeneca as they believe the efficacy will increase dramatically if the second dose is administered later. This is adopted around the world as there is trial data to support this unlike Pfizer.

As always I stress this is my understanding and am happy to be corrected as things change by the day. Here are a number of links that are meaning to explain rather than be political or comparing, so please take them like that. I should stress the Israel report where it quotes the NY Times report on getting the 2nd dose as a different vaccine has been completely denied by the U.K. government so at this stage please ignore that. I stress again none of these are meant to be controversial or compare ( especially the Israeli view ) and if it works for us with the Pfizer jab it will be hailed as a great decision. I should also stress the MHRA have no concerns with the 8 - 12 weeks for Pfizer, that keeps it fair for all concerned.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-authorised-in-uk.html

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-recommends-first-covid-19-vaccine-authorisation-eu

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/update-rolling-review-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/pfizer-vaccine-second-dose-delay-who-advice-b714491.html

https://www.timesofisrael.com/an-act-of-desperation-uks-delay-of-second-vaccine-dose-comes-under-fire/

 

[Van wink 2,994]

4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Emergency usage is what the vaccine has been approved for. There are therefore lots of conditions. The AstraZeneca link below although it does not explain emergency usage, it shows how they will move to the next level and so on. You will also see the usage after emergency is conditional market authorisation is the next step for the U.K. which is what Europe and others went for. Australia for instance have time on their hands so they are waiting 3 months for full approval, however because of their new clusters they are likely to bring that forward and get a different approval by February. Pfizer and Moderna have conditional market usage in Europe and are trying to achieve the same for Oxford-AstraZeneca. This is why it really is impossible to compare like for like statistics.

Regards Pfizer for the second jab this is something that currently only the U.K. and Sweden to my knowledge are doing. It is however possible under Biden that 2nd doses are not held back, but it is not certain that, that means you won’t be given your 2nd dose within 21 - 28 days. This has caused a lot of concern from Pfizer and The WHO. There is no data that supports 8 - 12 weeks for Pfizer, this decision is taken because of our current situation. With regards the 8 - 12 weeks with Oxford-AstraZeneca, there is a bit of government spin here. It is not the governments idea to get everybody the jab quicker, it is the recommendation from AstraZeneca as they believe the efficacy will increase dramatically if the second dose is administered later. This is adopted around the world as there is trial data to support this unlike Pfizer.

As always I stress this is my understanding and am happy to be corrected as things change by the day. Here are a number of links that are meaning to explain rather than be political or comparing, so please take them like that. I should stress the Israel report where it quotes the NY Times report on getting the 2nd dose as a different vaccine has been completely denied by the U.K. government so at this stage please ignore that. I stress again none of these are meant to be controversial or compare ( especially the Israeli view ) and if it works for us with the Pfizer jab it will be hailed as a great decision. I should also stress the MHRA have no concerns with the 8 - 12 weeks for Pfizer, that keeps it fair for all concerned.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-authorised-in-uk.html

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-recommends-first-covid-19-vaccine-authorisation-eu

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/update-rolling-review-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/pfizer-vaccine-second-dose-delay-who-advice-b714491.html

https://www.timesofisrael.com/an-act-of-desperation-uks-delay-of-second-vaccine-dose-comes-under-fire/

 

You’re a star, cheers 👍

[Well b back 3,201]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

You’re a star, cheers 👍

Like I say take those as why it is impossible to compare and why the worst your current COVID situation is the more you have to react, often outside the box and not to be used for comparing or political reasons. I have had the Pfizer jab as well so I tend to believe the MHRA have got it right, I will be none to pleased if they haven’t.

As I mentioned earlier a big player in the world stakes will be The Serum Institute of India.