Come on Sarah

[Tetteys Jig 830]

5 hours ago, Well b back said:

The bbc still reckon it will be mid 2021. Reading this I reckon it is word for word what the US reports were saying a month ago.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51665497

thats when it is "widely available" so maybe we can get a few of our most vulnerable citizens (that can take the vaccine) vaccinated this side of winter? That would be a huge boost to potentially being back to Boris' near normal by Christmas pledge...

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

5 hours ago, Well b back said:

Now surely this should be headlines. Looks like there is a new treatment that cures 80 % of HOSPITALISED patients wow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53467022

I'd be a little cautious in describing this as a cure. It reduces the treatment needed in 79% of cases. Which is a major breakthrough, admittedly

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

3 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

thats when it is "widely available" so maybe we can get a few of our most vulnerable citizens (that can take the vaccine) vaccinated this side of winter? That would be a huge boost to potentially being back to Boris' near normal by Christmas pledge...

Yep and also this is really reporting most experts "finger in the air" for when it's likely we'll have a vaccine.  Most vaccines don't come through trials successfully.  If the Oxford vaccine is successful, having been the first one into trials AFAIK, that would be very lucky and would definitely put things well ahead of the curve in terms of what "most experts" are thinking.  Not saying they would be wrong, but that we'll be lucky to be ahead of the curve.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-53469839?__twitter_impression=true so far so good!

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Thanks TJ.  As you say, so far so good !

 

So phase I basically demonstrates an immune response and that it hasn't caused problematic side effects.  The immune response doesn't mean it has shown that it will protect against the disease in reality, just that it has stimulated the immune system to produce antibodies etc against the virus - which most readers of this thread already know very well !

 

Can someone remind me, has the phase II trial already started ?  Also did they go ahead with a trial in Brazil given the relatively low infection levels in the UK now ?  I know these were discussed but I can't remember what happened and of course the mainstream media don't discuss these crucial issues !

[Well b back 3,190]

3 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-53469839?__twitter_impression=true so far so good!

 

3 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-53469839?__twitter_impression=true so far so good!

Excellent news. It was how it was reported in the foreign press a week ago. I think you will all agree that following these papers reports with their unsubstantiated claims has shown all of them to be correct about the Oxford vaccine to date. Let’s hope last weeks is also correct which stated there were now enough infections to have a phase 3 result. 

[Well b back 3,190]

2 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks TJ.  As you say, so far so good !

 

So phase I basically demonstrates an immune response and that it hasn't caused problematic side effects.  The immune response doesn't mean it has shown that it will protect against the disease in reality, just that it has stimulated the immune system to produce antibodies etc against the virus - which most readers of this thread already know very well !

 

Can someone remind me, has the phase II trial already started ?  Also did they go ahead with a trial in Brazil given the relatively low infection levels in the UK now ?  I know these were discussed but I can't remember what happened and of course the mainstream media don't discuss these crucial issues !

We believe so, deals were signed for Brazil and South Africa, however there was talk of a slight delay. There was talk last week if you recall that there were enough infections, but until confirmed it is the usual foreign press reporting it.

One last thing that may or may not be a coincidence. As we all know the only reluctance on human challenge has been the lack of treatment. As we now at the weekend the likes of Adrian Hill joined forces with one day Sooner to ask for these tests to commence. Today we hear about the Southampton trial, is it coincidence ?

2 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Thanks guys

 

Just found this link to the Oxford website confirms Phase III trials are underway in Brazil and South Africa, plus in the US they are enrolling 30,000 participants in a Phase III trial. 

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-07-20-new-study-reveals-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-produces-strong-immune-response

Very promising, but Phase III is make or break, i.e. does it actually protect enough people against the Virus.  Fingers crossed.

[Well b back 3,190]

6 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks guys

 

Just found this link to the Oxford website confirms Phase III trials are underway in Brazil and South Africa, plus in the US they are enrolling 30,000 participants in a Phase III trial. 

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-07-20-new-study-reveals-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-produces-strong-immune-response

Very promising, but Phase III is make or break, i.e. does it actually protect enough people against the Virus.  Fingers crossed.

The good news is that ( as we had already got from the foreign press ) 2 doses have worked in 100 % of cases ( giving the reaction required that is ). Remember America were reporting 1 1/2 weeks ago there were enough cases to have results in phase 3 ? Well I appreciate I maybe reading to much into it but Adrian Hill in his interview just said and I quote ‘ we are trialing it in Brazil and South Africa currently and the US next month ‘ and then quote again ‘ As it is no good having a vaccine that works for us in the U.K. but not for people in the rest of the world, in different climates for instance ‘.

[Well b back 3,190]

Here is the full Lancet report.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31604-4/fulltext

[Barbe bleu 814]

7 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks guys

 

Just found this link to the Oxford website confirms Phase III trials are underway in Brazil and South Africa, plus in the US they are enrolling 30,000 participants in a Phase III trial. 

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-07-20-new-study-reveals-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-produces-strong-immune-response

Very promising, but Phase III is make or break, i.e. does it actually protect enough people against the Virus.  Fingers crossed.

The question of protection in the phase 3 is obviously important but I think I'm more interested in the phase 1 element of the studies to come and if it protects the elderly and vulnerable. I'm also interested in the ability of the vaccine to reduce viral load to levels at which spread won't occur.

I expect the phase 3 study to be successful  and that clearly would be very good news but until the other two questions are answered we haven't actually answered a single important question

 

[Well b back 3,190]

I have signed up for the trials.

I will let you all know if I hear something.

[Well b back 3,190]

For those interested here is the official government / nhs link. It also gives the link to volunteer.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/millions-could-be-vaccinated-against-covid-19-as-uk-secures-strong-portfolio-of-promising-vaccines

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

I have signed up for the trials.

I will let you all know if I hear something.

Well done WBB !

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Some negative news from the Covid app website

 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/weather-covid

 

Basically answering the question about whether Covid is worse in winter with the answer yes, so part of the decline in cases here since March is due to the better weather.

 

its just one factor, so Covid has still had an impact in some hot places. But in the UK it’s likely to get worse through the autumn 😟

[Indy 3,283]

5 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Some negative news from the Covid app website

 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/weather-covid

 

Basically answering the question about whether Covid is worse in winter with the answer yes, so part of the decline in cases here since March is due to the better weather.

 

its just one factor, so Covid has still had an impact in some hot places. But in the UK it’s likely to get worse through the autumn 😟

Again you need to take this with a pinch of salt as Mexico and Brazil show, weather actually has minimal influence on it, more so about hygiene and segregation! One reason the government is desperate to get the vulnerable vaccinated by December.

That said treatments have improved and continue to improve as numbers of infected go up deaths have stabilised, by the winter the treatments available will hopefully lead to a 75% reduction in those needing ventilator treatment in intensive care.

Again I’m only passing on limited info I have, but the main focus is to get the vulnerable vaccinated before winter allowing some form of normality to gain hold for Christmas. Now you won’t hear that from the news as they have a few scientific people who need public exposure and are telling everyone all about the negatives!

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

19 minutes ago, Indy said:

Again you need to take this with a pinch of salt as Mexico and Brazil show, weather actually has minimal influence on it, more so about hygiene and segregation! One reason the government is desperate to get the vulnerable vaccinated by December.

That said treatments have improved and continue to improve as numbers of infected go up deaths have stabilised, by the winter the treatments available will hopefully lead to a 75% reduction in those needing ventilator treatment in intensive care.

Again I’m only passing on limited info I have, but the main focus is to get the vulnerable vaccinated before winter allowing some form of normality to gain hold for Christmas. Now you won’t hear that from the news as they have a few scientific people who need public exposure and are telling everyone all about the negatives!

Hi Indy

 

The research on that link isn't looking at which is more important - it seems pretty clear from the success of lockdowns in containing the virus that distancing is crucial and it's also obvious that hygiene is essential.  What hasn't been clear though is how far the weather has a link to Covid, which was speculated about early on (part of which was wishful thinking that it would just go away by itself over the summer) but AFAIK hasn't had follow up research before this.  This research is based on analysis of data about 7,000 patients admitted to hospital in various countries, and it simply shows that in better weather, the severity of Covid (including the level of mortality) is (to a marginal extent) not as bad.  So in other words, it will get marginally worse in winter (other things being equal of course).

 

This completely supports the suggestion that we need to get the vulnerable vaccinated before winter as far as possible.  Let's hope we have a vaccine available by then !

[Barbe bleu 814]

27 minutes ago, Indy said:

Again you need to take this with a pinch of salt as Mexico and Brazil show, weather actually has minimal influence on it, more so about hygiene and segregation! 

what are you basing this on? Obviously segregation and hygiene are the most important factors but to suggest that any seasonal variation does seem bold.

27 minutes ago, Indy said:

 

Again I’m only passing on limited info I have, but the main focus is to get the vulnerable vaccinated before winter allowing some form of normality to gain hold for Christmas. 

Problem with that is that no vaccine is proven to any degree to be safe or vaccine in this group and this is the group most likely to have a poor response to vaccination .    I would probably put care home/carers and NHS staff in the first group. Possibly with relatives of the vulnerable, especially if a vaccine is licenced for the fit and healthy before the vulnerable

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Van wink 2,994]

I saw that report earlier and it  is interesting. It’s not talking about the rate of infection changing of course, it’s reporting that the severity of the infection, the clinical outcomes seem to have a seasonal relationship.

Maintaining social distancing, personal hygiene and mask wearing will be even more important during the winter.

[Indy 3,283]

Sorry guys, don’t misinterpret me, UV levels certainly have an impact on the longevity of the virus, the issue comes in close communities where hygiene & segregation is an issue. This has a bigger impact on the spread of the virus.

Secondly the immune response in warm weather climate, where poor hygiene standards are tends to be stronger, possibly the immune system is more hardy! I don’t know, just surmising.
 

All I know is the bits I get told, one being that there are a few vaccines which are showing real promising results, the rich countries are buying the first doses to ensure their population are treated, vulnerable first, but also mustn’t be overlooked the significant number of vaccines destined to poorer nations.

As for the proven to be safe, sorry that’s not entirely correct, the Oxford vaccine has been tested in the phase where over a thousand patients have been treated without any significant side effects, some have shown fevers and smaller issues, but not long term. The next phase oh larger number is now in process.

Its pretty likely that the vaccine will be used from November onwards, the financial pressure on all countries is now impacting on lives more significant than Covid, just to point out June figure for UK average deaths is 6% down on the average, basically showing that some who died of Covid would have died of other causes by the end of June, July looks to be the same or better.

I’m not saying this with certainty but with the knowledge of my friend in GSK.

I think we should be cautious but hopeful, don’t believe all the ****e the press, there’s good news in treatments and vaccines, those who are working on them whichever country should be fully applauded by us all.

There are a lot of fringe scientists who just want to get their name in the limelight and some should be gagged!

 

[Barbe bleu 814]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

 

As for the proven to be safe, sorry that’s not entirely correct, the Oxford vaccine has been tested in the phase where over a thousand patients have been treated without any significant side effects, some have shown fevers and smaller issues, but not long term. The next phase oh larger number is now in process.

 

Sorry, to be clear I meant the Oxford vaccine has only been trialled in the fit and healthy.  Very promising for this group  but no phase one results for the most needy as far as i know.

[Indy 3,283]

4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Sorry, to be clear I meant the Oxford vaccine has only been trialled in the fit and healthy.  Very promising for this group  but no phase one results for the most needy as far as i know.

That’s true to any testing, the healthy will be the testing ground. But general thought is that it will instigate t-cell and antibodies in all groups.

It has to be pointed out, vulnerable older groups are at risk from common cold viruses and flue viruses too.

There has to be a normal level of life to promote growth in finances, as highlighted other infections, cancers and illnesses are taking over death rates as focus is lost, not to mention financial issues for poorer families in the long run will lead to stress or other problems.

As I said not a quick fix but not as far away as some people with an agenda might want you to think! For some reason we’re in a world full of people wanting their 15 minutes of fame, in a society helping to give them the platformm. 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

the Economist blog on science (called Babbage) current entry is an interview with Sarah Gilbert, I think it’s available to all.

 

Nothing particularly new (she’s pretty cautious in what she says) but it does confirm where they are on Phase III trials etc. Basically it sounds like it is going as well as it could so far. But the Phase III trials ongoing in Brazil & S Africa are the ones that they’re expecting to give results on it’s effectiveness (now there are too few cases in the UK) and these trials are all blind ie during the trial the data about who’s had the vaccine vs who’s in the control group are kept separate to avoid prejudicing the outcome. They wait until they have enough Covid cases to be statistically significant and then check how many of them are in the vaccine group.

 

The data then Is passed to regulators to check before it can be used. Also the two doses are a month apart which adds a further delay in the process.

 

it seems to me from what she says October is realistic to have an answer on the Oxford vaccine, just that there’s no guarantee it will work.

 

Fingers crossed!

[Well b back 3,190]

Moderna vaccine moves to phase 3

 https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/24/health/moderna-vaccine-barney-graham-gupta/index.html

[sonyc 5,491]

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18609000.conspiracy-theories-rumours-bradford-ahead-coronavirus-vaccine-trials/

I read our local fella (who also writes for the BBC) and here is his piece today about peoples' vaccine worries but also a snippet on trials (very soon).

[Well b back 3,190]

Wow this makes worrying reading. All the more reason for a vaccine. So changing the statement from stay home save lives at the end of June has seen an alarming increase in cases. Must say I am shocked as it is being made out things are getting better.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

Some better news the T cells may last for upto 17 years

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_campaign=NGMT_USG_JC01_GL_Nature

[Well b back 3,190]

Here is the actual Oxford summary of phase 1 with links to the lancet report if you want that as well. Sounds even more promising than the papers were having us beleive.

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-07-20-safety-and-immunogenicity-of-the-chadox1-ncov-19-vaccine-against-sars-cov-2-a-phase-i-2-randomized-control-trial

[Well b back 3,190]

Moderna has now moved to phase 3 and 2 others go to phase 3 on Monday. I find it interesting how our press are more positive about the other countries vaccines than ours

https://www.ft.com/content/a7a64042-c471-40dd-8290-e7eb86731569

[Van wink 2,994]

16 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Moderna has now moved to phase 3 and 2 others go to phase 3 on Monday. I find it interesting how our press are more positive about the other countries vaccines than ours

https://www.ft.com/content/a7a64042-c471-40dd-8290-e7eb86731569

It’s a British thing isn’t it 😀

Good news from Oxford, thanks for the updates.