Come on Sarah

[Indy 3,283]

BF this has nothing to do with the government, go back to the covid thread to argue about that please.

Thanks for the clarification Well b Back, I thought when I saw some I say 50/50 was way wide of the remarks coming out.

[BigFish 1,986]

2 minutes ago, Indy said:

BF this has nothing to do with the government, go back to the covid thread to argue about that please.

Thanks for the clarification Well b Back, I thought when I saw some I say 50/50 was way wide of the remarks coming out.

It does have everything to do with the reponse to the virus though

[Indy 3,283]

52 minutes ago, BigFish said:

It does have everything to do with the reponse to the virus though

Not on this thread BF, there’s more than enough politics in the main thread, you’ve been asked by lots of people to just stay on topic the ongoing trials, treatments and how they’re going.

You’ll soon be joined by the rest and this thread will be another ruined by the same old posters it’s their agendas. Just leave the politics out of this thread please.

[BigFish 1,986]

24 minutes ago, Indy said:

Not on this thread BF, there’s more than enough politics in the main thread, you’ve been asked by lots of people to just stay on topic the ongoing trials, treatments and how they’re going.

You’ll soon be joined by the rest and this thread will be another ruined by the same old posters it’s their agendas. Just leave the politics out of this thread please.

OK

[Indy 3,283]

Just now, BigFish said:

OK

Top man, I do agree with a lot of what you’ve said on the main thread BF, this is one thread where we can all take heart on the good work by those doing the trials, the scientists working on the treatments.......there’s certainly good feeling on this thread BF.👍💚💛

[Well b back 3,190]

16 minutes ago, Indy said:

Top man, I do agree with a lot of what you’ve said on the main thread BF, this is one thread where we can all take heart on the good work by those doing the trials, the scientists working on the treatments.......there’s certainly good feeling on this thread BF.👍💚💛

Thanks Indy.

This thread is purely for info. I just check certain checks each day and watch Jenners tweets. I don’t want this to be political, it is just me putting in info for people to judge for themselves. 
I hope in fact that people are happy and won’t take offence where I see a story like 50/50 that it works or not and I quote what they said and not what the papers changed it to.

I have seen nothing over the last few days that show the Oxford vaccine as Brits is our best hope at present.

[Well b back 3,190]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Interesting. 

This is a phase 2/3 trial.   Guess that means that results are good enough for wide scale testing in the fit and healthy but the immune response in the elderly and children is still to be determined.

A long way to go yet but anything is better than nothing at this stage.

I dug the following article up on vaccination.   Good discussion of sterilising immunity. Obviously the gold standard is sterilising immunity as this is the best way to eliminate spread.  

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5011745/

It also hints that you can have (at least to one flu strain) an effective t cell response without antibody production.   In the other thread there was talk (before brexit came to dominate the thinking) about whether or not antibody levels were an effective measure of susceptibility. This study (in my amateur estimation)  might be taken as suggesting that other forms of immunity are important and that the serology studies taken at face value might be underestimating how close we are to  herd immunity  

You are spot on in the first bit that it seems they have jumped straight from phase 1 to phase 3. Volunteers are being asked for outside the healthy 18 - 55. 
As far as herd immunity goes Jenner in a tweet ( I will try and find it ) reckon this is highly unlikely especially as the average present rate of people infected in most countries is 5 %.

[Barbe bleu 812]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

As far as herd immunity goes Jenner in a tweet ( I will try and find it ) reckon this is highly unlikely especially as the average present rate of people infected in most countries is 5 %.

Well what we can say is that it probably wouldn't get to any sort of phase 3 trial if it failed at 1 or 2.  

Let's hope the phase 2 trial for the vulnerable groups is successful too.  This seems to me to to be where success is really determined.

Keep us updated!

As to the herd, I was thinking mainly about london. The last figures were 17% with antibodies.  How many though are naturally resilient or have a t cell response in the absence of antibodies?

I was wondering why london figures have recovered so much quicker than elsewhere and the role the herd play in this ( though might only be at a household level its ready having  an effect)

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

4 hours ago, BigFish said:

OK

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Van wink
second thoughts

[Well b back 3,190]

5 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Well what we can say is that it probably wouldn't get to any sort of phase 3 trial if it failed at 1 or 2.  

Let's hope the phase 2 trial for the vulnerable groups is successful too.  This seems to me to to be where success is really determined.

Keep us updated!

As to the herd, I was thinking mainly about london. The last figures were 17% with antibodies.  How many though are naturally resilient or have a t cell response in the absence of antibodies?

I was wondering why london figures have recovered so much quicker than elsewhere and the role the herd play in this ( though might only be at a household level its ready having  an effect)

 

 

I to have no idea, it does seem strange. I know from their tweets their worry is if they don’t get a vaccine in before this wave reduces then it maybe here for years. I still reckon there will be human challenge trials soon. If you think about it fit 18 - 25 year olds will be used. The stats show that group have broken lock downs more than any other. If there is no vaccine this group will likely catch it anyway. In my view you can’t say it’s ok for footballers for instance to be put at risk as the risk of becoming seriously ill is minimal and not beleive the same to be the case if members of this group volunteer to take it.

[Well b back 3,190]

Have you had Covid 19 ?. You maybe able to help others as again this trial appears to be gaining momentum. 
 

Coronavirus: The search for antibody super donors

Alessandro Giardini is a consultant at Great Ormond Street Hospital, London, and spent seven days on a ventilator due to Covid-19. The doctor recovered and went on to donate plasma. 

The plasma, the liquid portion of the blood, contains coronavirus antibodies and he has the highest antibody level of those measured so far. 

The antibody rich plasma taken from people who have recovered can be transfused into people being treated for Covid-19. 

Three groups of donors - men, those over 35 and people who have had hospital treatment - are most likley to have antibody rich plasma. 

The NHS is now urging people who have had coronavirus and are in one or more of those three groups to donate plasma for a treatment trial.

[Well b back 3,190]

The US vaccine is to commence trials inAustralia. I can only assume this is still well in phase 1 because of their infection rates, but just to show how far this is behind Oxford this phase results will not be expected till mid July.

The first human trial of a vaccine in the southern hemisphere has begun today in Melbourne, Australia.

The vaccine being tested - with the catchy name of NVX-CoV2373 - was made by US company, Novavax. It will be tested on a group of 130 healthy adults with the first results expected in July.

There are more than 100 vaccines being developed around the world, and around a dozen have begun human testing.

[Well b back 3,190]

For those that were asking I have just found out why Jenner think herd immunity will be impossible. Just like the flu they expect the virus to mutate and consequently just like the flu each year may bring a different form of the virus. Having it will not then mean you are immune, but just like the flu vaccine hey expect to be able to alter it to protect you against that years strain. Not sure if that offers a complete answer but certainly seems to make sense.

This is the reason as well why they feel it is vital to develop the 1st vaccine before it dies down for this year, or they will be back to square one. 

[Well b back 3,190]

Details of another vaccine, this time China’s, that is showing promise. However the problem with this one seems to be the side effects. No idea what they are but I will try to find out. Always hard to know if any political views in this article as it comes from the US. In the article they were still running on about Oxford and the monkies casting doubt, but of course said the US vaccine was showing great potential.

The strongest new contender in the global vaccine race has been touted as the vaccine developed by CanSino Biologics Inc from China. Studies conducted so far have claimed that the vaccine, which has surpassed the human testing phase appeared to be safe. The report which has been tabled is based on a Lancet study which drew observations from an early trial conducted on humans in several laboratories, based on 108 participants aged between 18-60. The vaccine was made with a certain mutation of a virus, named Ad5, which genetically modifies the protein structure once injected inside the cell. Once the body identifies, the virus is able to break down the molecule and stop it from further multiplying. The study also shows that the vaccine injection could possibly help the body's immunity and T-cell production as well.

However, there is still a long way to go for this vaccine to receive green signals, since a lot of side effects during injection have been observed.

Cansino vaccine, which is developed by a China-based company also became the first of its kind to proceed to the stage 2 of the study and for its preliminary results to get peer reviewed. In the testing done so far, participants who received a single dose of the vaccine produced certain immune cells, called T cells, within two weeks while the antibodies needed for immunity peaked at 28 days.

 

[Barry Brockes 145]

Personally, I think I'd need more than a little persuasion to be injected by a vaccine developed in a Chinese Laboratory. Think I'll stick with Sarah! 

[Well b back 3,190]

Here we have a drug looking fairly promising, however it will be limited as there are limited supplies. Looks like Donald Trump picked the wrong drug to play with.

Coronavirus: UK authorises anti-viral drug remdesivir

A drug treatment that appears to shorten recovery time for people with coronavirus is being made available on the NHS. 

Remdesivir is an anti-viral medicine that was originally developed to fight Ebola. 

UK regulators say there is enough evidence to approve its use in selected hospital patients. 

For the time being and due to limited supplies, it will go to those most likely to benefit.

The US and Japan have already made similar arrangements to provide early access to the medicine before they have a marketing agreement.

The drug, is currently undergoing clinical trials around the world, including in the UK. Early data suggests it can cut recovery time by about four days.

• Coronavirus cure: When will we have a drug to treat it?

It is not clear how much stock pharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences has available to treat UK patients. 

Allocation of the drug will be based on the advice of doctors.

Minister for Innovation Lord Bethell said: "This shows fantastic progress. As we navigate this unprecedented period, we must be on the front foot of the latest medical advancements, while always ensuring patient safety remains a top priority.

"The latest, expert scientific advice is at the heart of every decision we make, and we will continue to monitor remdesivir's success in clinical trials across the country to ensure the best results for UK patients."

Other drugs being investigated for coronavirus include those for malaria and HIV.

Testing of the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine has been halted in some trials because of safety fears. 

The World Health Organization says the temporary suspension is a precaution, after a recent medical study found the drug might increase the risk of death and heart rhythm complications.

In the UK, the Recovery trial looking at using this drug in patients remains open, but another one, using it in frontline NHS staff to prevent rather than treat infections, has been paused.

 

[Barbe bleu 812]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

For those that were asking I have just found out why Jenner think herd immunity will be impossible. Just like the flu they expect the virus to mutate and consequently just like the flu each year may bring a different form of the virus. Having it will not then mean you are immune, but just like the flu vaccine hey expect to be able to alter it to protect you against that years strain. Not sure if that offers a complete answer but certainly seems to make sense.

This is the reason as well why they feel it is vital to develop the 1st vaccine before it dies down for this year, or they will be back to square one. 

Really? That's a real shame.  Earlier reports were that the mutation rate was much lower than flu (and of course less human disease strains to start with)  and less than SARS. Hopefully this is just expectation managing.

[Van wink 2,994]

10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Really? That's a real shame.  Earlier reports were that the mutation rate was much lower than flu (and of course less human disease strains to start with)  and less than SARS. Hopefully this is just expectation managing.

From what I read some time ago, the belief was that the virus was regularly mutating as it passed from host to host but that the mutations were not significant and insufficient to cause the Oxford vaccine to fail, but  clearly we are learning all the time and things must have changed.

[The Bristol Nest 513]

I read yesterday that apart from the lack of C19 for testing, hence the 50/50 report, Oxford are pretty optimistic following 16 years of research into Coronavirus vaccines and a successful adaptation to treat Mers. They believe that they have adapted this for C19. 

[Indy 3,283]

Additionally I remember reading that Coronavirus tends to mutate downwards, meaning it becomes less threatening to its host, as it’s not in its interest to kill the host but to use the host.

[ron obvious 1,498]

Many thanks Well b back for your sterling work in updating this most useful of threads. Much appreciated.

[Mark .Y. 351]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Additionally I remember reading that Coronavirus tends to mutate downwards, meaning it becomes less threatening to its host, as it’s not in its interest to kill the host but to use the host.

Yes, I read a similar article. Would that explain why it seems to almost "die out" in countries. Even after lockdowns are eased there only seems to be a few localised flare-ups and no significant rise in deaths, even allowing for the 3 week lag.

[Well b back 3,190]

5 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Really? That's a real shame.  Earlier reports were that the mutation rate was much lower than flu (and of course less human disease strains to start with)  and less than SARS. Hopefully this is just expectation managing.

Yes, but they are not expecting a major variation just like you get in flu. Apparently once you have a vaccine you can tweak it, if you don’t have one then you are still stuck at the stage of proving it’s safe and then it works. No vaccine as I understand means you have taken 2 steps forward and 1 step back not even knowing if it works. 

[Well b back 3,190]

4 hours ago, The Bristol Nest said:

I read yesterday that apart from the lack of C19 for testing, hence the 50/50 report, Oxford are pretty optimistic following 16 years of research into Coronavirus vaccines and a successful adaptation to treat Mers. They believe that they have adapted this for C19. 

That I believe is spot on. However they do not think they definitely have something that stops you getting it, but something that protects you from the bad things that kill you, a bit like flu now.

[Well b back 3,190]

5 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Really? That's a real shame.  Earlier reports were that the mutation rate was much lower than flu (and of course less human disease strains to start with)  and less than SARS. Hopefully this is just expectation managing.

Hi

As I understand it it is a bit like flu and once you have a vaccine you can change it if the virus changes. I still feel if this wave dies out USA will move to human challenge. The upcoming election in the USA could strangely be the thing that gets us a vaccine quickly. If he has one he will probably win by a country mile.

[Well b back 3,190]

Evening all.

I hope you are enjoying this thread and I am really happy it is sticking to the point, so thanks. I would like to mention that the things I put here are from press reports, often days before they are announced officially, and are not always correct. However I am beginning to find a lot of the stuff is either spot on, or strangely 2 weeks old and completely outdated. Please bear in mind therefore that eventually there will be something miles out that I mention. It was good to see today Mr Hancock letting us know about the trials for Remisvar which of course we already knew.

One last one before I go there are now thoughts that the flu season has pretty much been a non event because of Coronavirus. They are not sure however wether it was because of lockdowns or the fact we were doing things like washing our hands, showing how little we used to do this in previous years. There’s food for thought.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

44 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Evening all.

I hope you are enjoying this thread and I am really happy it is sticking to the point, so thanks. I would like to mention that the things I put here are from press reports, often days before they are announced officially, and are not always correct. However I am beginning to find a lot of the stuff is either spot on, or strangely 2 weeks old and completely outdated. Please bear in mind therefore that eventually there will be something miles out that I mention. It was good to see today Mr Hancock letting us know about the trials for Remisvar which of course we already knew.

One last one before I go there are now thoughts that the flu season has pretty much been a non event because of Coronavirus. They are not sure however wether it was because of lockdowns or the fact we were doing things like washing our hands, showing how little we used to do this in previous years. There’s food for thought.

Thanks @well be back. Keep up the good work!!

[sonyc 5,489]

55 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Evening all.

I hope you are enjoying this thread and I am really happy it is sticking to the point, so thanks. I would like to mention that the things I put here are from press reports, often days before they are announced officially, and are not always correct. However I am beginning to find a lot of the stuff is either spot on, or strangely 2 weeks old and completely outdated. Please bear in mind therefore that eventually there will be something miles out that I mention. It was good to see today Mr Hancock letting us know about the trials for Remisvar which of course we already knew.

One last one before I go there are now thoughts that the flu season has pretty much been a non event because of Coronavirus. They are not sure however wether it was because of lockdowns or the fact we were doing things like washing our hands, showing how little we used to do this in previous years. There’s food for thought.

Thanks as ever Wbb. 

I found this article (one of those suggested ones you get when you look to Google something) and felt it was educational about vaccines and the experience going through the testing phases you've mentioned earlier up this thread.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/26/moderna-vaccine-candidate-trial-participant-severe-reaction/

[Barbe bleu 812]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

One last one before I go there are now thoughts that the flu season has pretty much been a non event because of Coronavirus. They are not sure however wether it was because of lockdowns or the fact we were doing things like washing our hands, showing how little we used to do this in previous years. There’s food for thought.

Makes sense.   I posted elsewhere that I wondered if the italian peak being earlier than ours masked the true extent of the outbreak in italy if only excess deaths were considered.  Ie. that covid deaths were very high but flu deaths lower so lower overall excess deaths than if the covid had come along outside of the season where there is less saving to be had from infection control measures.

 

Then I got shouted down as people assumed i was making  a political point( which i wasn't)

[Well b back 3,190]

Here is an excellent article about human challenge. It mentions how ‘ one day sooner ‘ the website to register your interest in human trials began, the fors and against, both ethically and scientifically and everything you can think of re the human challenge. In one of my earlier posts I mentioned how a few hundred had signed up, then updated that with a few thousand. The upto date figure is 26,000. Although there are a lot of reasons why this shouldn’t go ahead I wouldn’t bet against Mr Trump disregarding them all.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-vaccine-challenge-trial