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National League null and void

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4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We cannot trust China's figures so extrapolating anything from them may not be a sound idea.

 

Just now, Mello Yello said:

Fortune cookies are more credible.....

 

Whatever the 'true' figures are in China, Italy, the USA or even here  - undoubtedly the Chinese have got it under control!

My only criticism of M.Y. is that he's in danger of trying to read too much into the Chinese pattern (a sole example) and as yet we don't actually know how the Italian (or Spanish) patterns as yet pan-out - the plateau and eventually receding?

In any event - EPL in June/July - well it is April fools day! 

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13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We cannot trust China's figures so extrapolating anything from them may not be a sound idea.

The trend can be seen though, Ricardo

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1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said:

The trend can be seen though, Ricardo

That may be true but from what is slowly seeping out is that there has been a massive state cover up. I think we can rely on the figures coming out of European countries for a more accurate forecast of what is going to happen here. That is what makes me believe that restarting football anytime soon is pie in the sky.

 

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5 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

 

Whatever the 'true' figures are in China, Italy, the USA or even here  - undoubtedly the Chinese have got it under control!

My only criticism of M.Y. is that he's in danger of trying to read too much into the Chinese pattern (a sole example) and as yet we don't actually know how the Italian (or Spanish) patterns as yet pan-out - the plateau and eventually receding?

In any event - EPL in June/July - well it is April fools day! 

YF   I'm also looking at the fall in the new cases in Italy, their peak number of cases was on March 21st so 9 days since of it below that peak, I agree that it is still early days........... and, yes, I'm trying to put an optimistic slant on things. Hopefully the next few days continues the downward trend in Italy, I'm sure there will be days when it jumps up again but hopefully on a distinct downward trend with "R below 0".

Hollands cases are also interesting and worth keeping an eye on their trends.

 

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1 minute ago, ricardo said:

That may be true but from what is slowly seeping out is that there has been a massive state cover up. I think we can rely on the figures coming out of European countries for a more accurate forecast of what is going to happen here. That is what makes me believe that restarting football anytime soon is pie in the sky.

 

I certainly don't disagree with what you are saying about the football  🙂

 

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5 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

YF   I'm also looking at the fall in the new cases in Italy, their peak number of cases was on March 21st so 9 days since of it below that peak, I agree that it is still early days........... and, yes, I'm trying to put an optimistic slant on things. Hopefully the next few days continues the downward trend in Italy, I'm sure there will be days when it jumps up again but hopefully on a distinct downward trend with "R below 0".

Hollands cases are also interesting and worth keeping an eye on their trends.

 

No worries. I agree. R below 1 !

An R below 0 would be quite magical rather like the 30th of February or the league restarting any time soon!

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43 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

No worries. I agree. R below 1 !

An R below 0 would be quite magical rather like the 30th of February or the league restarting any time soon!

Ooops, yes, R below 1  🙂

 

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I think there has be be a real degree of caution about any thoughts of optimism because new cases are falling. I think there may be a temptation from all quarters to get things back on an even keel but this thing really has to be eradicated before a full return to anything.

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1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

I think there has be be a real degree of caution about any thoughts of optimism because new cases are falling. I think there may be a temptation from all quarters to get things back on an even keel but this thing really has to be eradicated before a full return to anything.

Quite so Keelan. Look at the graphs Ricardo has posted on the main thread and you can ignore most of what spokespeople say about rates, numbers, green shoots etc. It is quite clear now what is happening. 

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Clearly, there's no way the league is restarting in the next couple of months but I don't think nullifying it is any kind of solution, nor something that's necessary. I really don't see that finishing it later in the year is an insurmountable problem. Just requires a bit of creative thinking and a couple of years of tight schedules and compromises. I'm assuming that the Nations League will be scrapped for the next couple of seasons so we don't need to worry about international weekends and that the FA gives clubs a bit of leeway with things like allowing teams to opt out of the Carabo cup or send youngsters like Liverpool have done this year. 

There are 38 games in a PL season, plus extra weekends required for FA cup etc. With a handful of midweek games, it's realistic to suggest the season could be completed in 35 weeks. This is how I can see it working
 

  • Mid-August/September 2020 - Current season restarts. The exact date depends on the health situation. 8-10 more weeks to complete the 19/20 season would take us to mid-October. Then, have a 2-3 week 'pre-season' break.
  • 2020/21 season starts early November and runs until the end of May 2021. With the Euros in June-July followed by the Olympics, it would be necessary to split next season as well - again coming back in mid August for the last 5-6 games of the season, finishing mid September and taking the rest of September off for another short pre-season. (Bearing in mind the majority of players not at the Euros will have had a full 2+ months of pre-season already)
  • 2021/22 season starts the first week of October and runs through until the end of June - Not a problem as the World Cup will be held in November/December that year, so finishing the season late won't be a problem. 
  • 2022/23 season starts mid-August after a 6-7 week pre-season; It will have to take a month off in November/December for the World Cup so again would likely have to end late, in June 2023.
  • 2023/24 season again starts mid August after a 7-week pre-season, but with no mid-year World Cup break could be finished by the end of May 2024, allowing everything back on track again for an early-August start of the 2024/25 season.

The biggest difficulty, of course, is with player contracts and TV rights. I think the TV deals issue could be relatively easily resolved by giving current rights holders an extra year on their deals for free and extending all contracts by one year. I can't see Sky, BT or anyone else rejecting that offer. Yes, this would cost a year of payments to the league, but it would kick the can down the road and be something everybody knows is coming; allowing clubs and the PL to plan ahead for it and spread the financial impact of lost revenue over the next few years instead of taking the hit now and likely also facing a huge compensation bill. 

The contracts issue I actually think is probably the easiest to resolve - If the season is to be finished later this year, it's in the interests of players and of FIFPRO to agree a universal, across-the-board contract extension of 4-5 months for all its members with expiring contracts. This summer is not going to be a good one for players to be out of contract whatever happens - I suspect there will be far fewer transfer deals coming up and many clubs won't want to take a chance on signing an out-of-contract player with the current uncertainty, so I imagine most players would be willing to agree to a short contract extension for the security. If they're determined to leave on July 1st then sure, they have every right to do that - but if the FA doesn't open the transfer window or allow new player registration until September/October then they would be rather shooting themselves in the foot by doing so.

Yes, it's going to require some difficult decisions and there's going to be a financial impact regardless of what happens; but I think some of the doom and gloom about how we can't possibly finish the season is unfounded - It's entirely possible, we just need to accept that things are going to be disrupted and it's going to take 4-5 seasons before everything can be realigned back to normal again. 

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I appreciate what you have proposed Andy but there is an awful lot of shuffling and supposing when it would be easier just to null and void this one.

I am not interested whether a team misses out on promotion or relegation. So I am not really concerned if a team doesn't make it to the CL. We could argue we missed out on out first FA Cup Final. Too many ifs.

And I really hope that football as an industry with all its excesses is not just using platitudes at the moment when it expresses concern. That will count for nothing if it returns wanting to make up for the past season. 

I am more concerned that thousands of small businesses will go out of business. Football at the highest level will survive this no matter what.

 

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Andyc24

The thing I was thinking about the contracts is what about those foreign players whose contracts are expiring and want to head home.

Given everything that has happened and they may not have seen members of their families for months - I don't think anybody will be able to stop them.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Talking of getting R below 1

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

 

Hope they are right

Its promising. But I am glad they are measured in what they say. Too many would jump on good news as an invitation.

I agree kg, I would like to hear the message at the daily press briefing that their is a small promise of light but everybody needs to double their efforts for at least the next 2 weeks to ensure we keep on top of it

Edited by Mark .Y.
not allowed to write ch**k of light :)

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19 minutes ago, andyc24_uk said:

Clearly, there's no way the league is restarting in the next couple of months but I don't think nullifying it is any kind of solution, nor something that's necessary. I really don't see that finishing it later in the year is an insurmountable problem. Just requires a bit of creative thinking and a couple of years of tight schedules and compromises. I'm assuming that the Nations League will be scrapped for the next couple of seasons so we don't need to worry about international weekends and that the FA gives clubs a bit of leeway with things like allowing teams to opt out of the Carabo cup or send youngsters like Liverpool have done this year. 

There are 38 games in a PL season, plus extra weekends required for FA cup etc. With a handful of midweek games, it's realistic to suggest the season could be completed in 35 weeks. 

I'm not sure if it's worth disrupting four seasons just to complete one. Voiding this one and restarting in September, if possible, sounds like the best solution.

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21 minutes ago, andyc24_uk said:

Clearly, there's no way the league is restarting in the next couple of months but I don't think nullifying it is any kind of solution, nor something that's necessary. I really don't see that finishing it later in the year is an insurmountable problem. Just requires a bit of creative thinking and a couple of years of tight schedules and compromises. I'm assuming that the Nations League will be scrapped for the next couple of seasons so we don't need to worry about international weekends and that the FA gives clubs a bit of leeway with things like allowing teams to opt out of the Carabo cup or send youngsters like Liverpool have done this year. 

There are 38 games in a PL season, plus extra weekends required for FA cup etc. With a handful of midweek games, it's realistic to suggest the season could be completed in 35 weeks. This is how I can see it working
 

  • Mid-August/September 2020 - Current season restarts. The exact date depends on the health situation. 8-10 more weeks to complete the 19/20 season would take us to mid-October. Then, have a 2-3 week 'pre-season' break.
  • 2020/21 season starts early November and runs until the end of May 2021. With the Euros in June-July followed by the Olympics, it would be necessary to split next season as well - again coming back in mid August for the last 5-6 games of the season, finishing mid September and taking the rest of September off for another short pre-season. (Bearing in mind the majority of players not at the Euros will have had a full 2+ months of pre-season already)
  • 2021/22 season starts the first week of October and runs through until the end of June - Not a problem as the World Cup will be held in November/December that year, so finishing the season late won't be a problem. 
  • 2022/23 season starts mid-August after a 6-7 week pre-season; It will have to take a month off in November/December for the World Cup so again would likely have to end late, in June 2023.
  • 2023/24 season again starts mid August after a 7-week pre-season, but with no mid-year World Cup break could be finished by the end of May 2024, allowing everything back on track again for an early-August start of the 2024/25 season.

The biggest difficulty, of course, is with player contracts and TV rights. I think the TV deals issue could be relatively easily resolved by giving current rights holders an extra year on their deals for free and extending all contracts by one year. I can't see Sky, BT or anyone else rejecting that offer. Yes, this would cost a year of payments to the league, but it would kick the can down the road and be something everybody knows is coming; allowing clubs and the PL to plan ahead for it and spread the financial impact of lost revenue over the next few years instead of taking the hit now and likely also facing a huge compensation bill. 

The contracts issue I actually think is probably the easiest to resolve - If the season is to be finished later this year, it's in the interests of players and of FIFPRO to agree a universal, across-the-board contract extension of 4-5 months for all its members with expiring contracts. This summer is not going to be a good one for players to be out of contract whatever happens - I suspect there will be far fewer transfer deals coming up and many clubs won't want to take a chance on signing an out-of-contract player with the current uncertainty, so I imagine most players would be willing to agree to a short contract extension for the security. If they're determined to leave on July 1st then sure, they have every right to do that - but if the FA doesn't open the transfer window or allow new player registration until September/October then they would be rather shooting themselves in the foot by doing so.

Yes, it's going to require some difficult decisions and there's going to be a financial impact regardless of what happens; but I think some of the doom and gloom about how we can't possibly finish the season is unfounded - It's entirely possible, we just need to accept that things are going to be disrupted and it's going to take 4-5 seasons before everything can be realigned back to normal again. 

As has already been pointed out. It’s incredibly unlikely that a player whose contract is expiring hasn’t already signed a Pre contract agreement with another club. Also we have no idea what potential transfers are already in place to be completed on a certain date. These issues are not “easy” to resolve at all

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19 minutes ago, andyc24_uk said:

Clearly, there's no way the league is restarting in the next couple of months but I don't think nullifying it is any kind of solution, nor something that's necessary. I really don't see that finishing it later in the year is an insurmountable problem. Just requires a bit of creative thinking and a couple of years of tight schedules and compromises. I'm assuming that the Nations League will be scrapped for the next couple of seasons so we don't need to worry about international weekends and that the FA gives clubs a bit of leeway with things like allowing teams to opt out of the Carabo cup or send youngsters like Liverpool have done this year. 

There are 38 games in a PL season, plus extra weekends required for FA cup etc. With a handful of midweek games, it's realistic to suggest the season could be completed in 35 weeks. This is how I can see it working
 

  • Mid-August/September 2020 - Current season restarts. The exact date depends on the health situation. 8-10 more weeks to complete the 19/20 season would take us to mid-October. Then, have a 2-3 week 'pre-season' break.
  • 2020/21 season starts early November and runs until the end of May 2021. With the Euros in June-July followed by the Olympics, it would be necessary to split next season as well - again coming back in mid August for the last 5-6 games of the season, finishing mid September and taking the rest of September off for another short pre-season. (Bearing in mind the majority of players not at the Euros will have had a full 2+ months of pre-season already)
  • 2021/22 season starts the first week of October and runs through until the end of June - Not a problem as the World Cup will be held in November/December that year, so finishing the season late won't be a problem. 
  • 2022/23 season starts mid-August after a 6-7 week pre-season; It will have to take a month off in November/December for the World Cup so again would likely have to end late, in June 2023.
  • 2023/24 season again starts mid August after a 7-week pre-season, but with no mid-year World Cup break could be finished by the end of May 2024, allowing everything back on track again for an early-August start of the 2024/25 season.

The biggest difficulty, of course, is with player contracts and TV rights. I think the TV deals issue could be relatively easily resolved by giving current rights holders an extra year on their deals for free and extending all contracts by one year. I can't see Sky, BT or anyone else rejecting that offer. Yes, this would cost a year of payments to the league, but it would kick the can down the road and be something everybody knows is coming; allowing clubs and the PL to plan ahead for it and spread the financial impact of lost revenue over the next few years instead of taking the hit now and likely also facing a huge compensation bill. 

The contracts issue I actually think is probably the easiest to resolve - If the season is to be finished later this year, it's in the interests of players and of FIFPRO to agree a universal, across-the-board contract extension of 4-5 months for all its members with expiring contracts. This summer is not going to be a good one for players to be out of contract whatever happens - I suspect there will be far fewer transfer deals coming up and many clubs won't want to take a chance on signing an out-of-contract player with the current uncertainty, so I imagine most players would be willing to agree to a short contract extension for the security. If they're determined to leave on July 1st then sure, they have every right to do that - but if the FA doesn't open the transfer window or allow new player registration until September/October then they would be rather shooting themselves in the foot by doing so.

Yes, it's going to require some difficult decisions and there's going to be a financial impact regardless of what happens; but I think some of the doom and gloom about how we can't possibly finish the season is unfounded - It's entirely possible, we just need to accept that things are going to be disrupted and it's going to take 4-5 seasons before everything can be realigned back to normal again. 

There are any number of other problems with that kind of timetable, including clubs simply going out of business, but two simple ones stand out. The season is 46 games plus the play-offs, since there is little point finishing the EPL if the divisions below are not completed, and there will have to be international breaks  because there are no fewer than five planned to accommodate the European World Cup qualifiers. And international managers will almost certainly demand at least one extra  break to play friendlies to get their preparations finalised.

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It is always possible to concoct a plan whereby the season is completed. However the virus does not adhere to any plan we may make. Starting again in September and a new season in November is entirely at the mercy of events e.g. the duration of lockdown and social distancing and the high probability of a second wave in the winter. You cannot build a wall while something beyond your control is constantly knocking away the foundations.

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, ricardo said:

It is always possible to concoct a plan whereby the season is completed. However the virus does not adhere to any plan we may make. Starting again in September and a new season in November is entirely at the mercy of events e.g. the duration of lockdown and social distancing and the high probability of a second wave in the winter. You cannot build a wall while something beyond your control is constantly knocking away the foundations.

Agreed - At the moment clubs are 'bleeding' money having to maintain core services and player/staff availability for a purely fictional restart in May/June. It's absurd. 

A swift end to this nonsense lets the clubs fully go into hibernation, saves money, sort their finances and make proper plans for a clean restart when conditions allow. An (amicable) settlement with the broadcasters sooner rather than later is inevitable. Personally can't see any other legal challenges getting past a judges first hearing - just load of hogwash.

The only competition that may survive into the autumn is actually the FA cup!  Only 7 games needed (3 for Norwich 😉!)

Edited by Yellow Fever
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Meetings with uefa today and another PL meeting Friday. Other sports are seeing their seasons cancelled and other major events cancelled but fully expect to see football kick the can further down the road in the pursuit of money 

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49 minutes ago, ricardo said:

It is always possible to concoct a plan whereby the season is completed. However the virus does not adhere to any plan we may make. Starting again in September and a new season in November is entirely at the mercy of events e.g. the duration of lockdown and social distancing and the high probability of a second wave in the winter. You cannot build a wall while something beyond your control is constantly knocking away the foundations.

Completely agree with this. Coronavirus has freedom to do what it wants, in Europe we will be waiting a good time yet to see if lockdowns even work...talk of slight slowdowns or eventually  any kind of decreases sounds good on a graph...but in the real world the picture  may and likely look very different...and then when any lockdown is over there is the as yet unknown factor of  waves  of virus returning as ricardo says. This is not even including the economical side of things...another 6 months...9 months...never mind just football..from individuals to entire nations we will all be affected in small or great measure..and not for the good.

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Posted (edited)

I don't believe it is possible to impose that contracts be extended.

The issue of player contracts for instance is being looked at from the wrong direction becase it will be the clubs who won't want to extend them when there is no money coming in. Imagine if we had not released Farmann and Amadou from their loan agreements. Is anyone thinking we would have looked to extend the contracts of two players who weren't being picked in order to maybe play nine games at a later point? What about the players we have out on loan with lower league clubs. They don't have the cash to pay them even if they wanted to keep them on, particularly if there is no prospect of promotion or relegation.

Edited by Hairy Canary
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Given that it's in the DM I don't know how valid it is but there is an article today from a football lawyer who says that the "null and void" option will just invite claims worth billions of pounds - but then he would say that.

Even with those caveats, the null and void scenario doesn't make any sense to me - yet. We know that the only decisions that absolutely have to be made now are the ones impacting cashflow - so, player wages and stadium costs etc. If most contracts run to June 30 that is still 3 months away and a lot can happen before then that we just can't forecast. So they won't make a decision yet because they don't have to.

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43 minutes ago, sgncfc said:

. So they won't make a decision yet because they don't have to.

As the numbers increase they will realise that the decision is being made for them.

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5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

As the numbers increase they will realise that the decision is being made for them.

Exactly -  same as happened to Johnson and the 'lock-down'. Lost control of the timing and frankly the agenda. Purely reactive.

Now another 563 dead today.

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6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

As the numbers increase they will realise that the decision is being made for them.

I can see why you might think that, but I don't agree. I still think the nuclear option is indefinite suspension as opposed to null and void. 

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So they won't make a decision yet because they don't have to.

So why have so many others? Probably because the disruption means you cannot plan forward. And that is a good reason to start with a blank planner.

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41 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Exactly -  same as happened to Johnson and the 'lock-down'. Lost control of the timing and frankly the agenda. Purely reactive.

Now another 563 dead today.

Reactive is the right word YF.

Even Hugh Pym today on the BBC referred to a "shambles in Whitehall" . No grip or serious planning apparent. Both the public  (calls for PPE, NHS testing etc) as well of course as the virus itself are leading the agenda. It's pure amateurism and I had expected far more given the collective intellectual capital available in any government (but little in the actual cabinet).

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Even Hugh Pym today on the BBC referred to a "shambles in Whitehall" . No grip or serious planning apparent. Both the public  (calls for PPE, NHS testing etc) as well of course as the virus itself are leading the agenda. It's pure amateurism and I had expected far more given the collective intellectual capital available in any government (but little in the actual cabinet).

Because this Government said the right things about Brexit. And that was down to the electorate. But we have no idea how capable they are. Javid soon jumped ship when he found out Cummings was our Rasputin.

 

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