ricardo 7,239 Posted January 23, 2022 What SAGE got wrong https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sage-vs-actual-update-as-of-22-jan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ron obvious 1,473 Posted January 23, 2022 https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathsandautopsiesfeb2020todec2021 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted January 23, 2022 So now we have BA.2 Omicron but no details of symptoms etc. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Real Buh 3,365 Posted January 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said: So now we have BA.2 Omicron but no details of symptoms etc. Wishful thinking from scientists and tyrant politicians clinging to relevancy. its.over 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KernowCanary 214 Posted January 23, 2022 39 minutes ago, The Real Buh said: Wishful thinking from scientists and tyrant politicians clinging to relevancy. its.over It’s not over yet, but it’s on its way to being so. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pete Raven 276 Posted January 24, 2022 On 23/01/2022 at 10:25, ron obvious said: https://unherd.com/2022/01/we-need-to-talk-about-the-vaccines/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=d04bb70e2c&mc_eid=79d954db01 "I've seen a few people recently shouting about how new ONS data shows that the "true" death toll from COVID in England & Wales is only 17,371, rather than the ONS figure of 157,816. This is obviously nonsense, but evidently still needs debunking, so here goes..." https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1485570732553875456 2 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,690 Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Pete Raven said: "I've seen a few people recently shouting about how new ONS data shows that the "true" death toll from COVID in England & Wales is only 17,371, rather than the ONS figure of 157,816. This is obviously nonsense, but evidently still needs debunking, so here goes..." https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1485570732553875456 Thanks. A moments thought could see this why at best this was a 'misleading' statistic and at worst - well simply disingenuous. Its why it wasn't much reported. I gave up 1/2 way through the video when it came off the rails but it took a good ten minutes to get there of waffle. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted January 24, 2022 National 88,447 - 56 (two days of Scotland figures added) rate of decrease of 6.8% 1.2 million tests Local Norwich West rate 770.1 N & N Patients 18-01-2022 113 17-01-2022 118 16-01-2022 114 15-01-2022 109 14-01-2022 116 Vax 1st Dose 12,266 90.8% done Norwich numbers 79% Booster rate 55.5% 2nd Dose 30,710 83.8% done 73.3% Booster 42,724 total 36,941,059 64.2% In Hospital 21-01-2022 17,523 20-01-2022 17,986 19-01-2022 18,529 18-01-2022 19,025 17-01-2022 19,506 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted January 24, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said: Thanks. A moments thought could see this why at best this was a 'misleading' statistic and at worst - well simply disingenuous. Its why it wasn't much reported. I gave up 1/2 way through the video when it came off the rails but it took a good ten minutes to get there of waffle. personally, I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with the information from the FOI request. I'm certain it's been available all this time from ONS anyway so there's no "cover up" or anything. As ever, it's peoples horrible interpretation of the data to suit their agenda. It's not false information to suggest only about a tenth of the covid deaths were basically solely Covid at all but as Victimofmaths states, there's around half of the whole population that have a preexisting condition. Many of those people potentially had years of quality life ahead of them prior to getting Covid. The way I've seen it is a little bit like the street fighter analogy I came up with. Covid is an attack that does 5 damage with 100 being full health. Everyone is at different points on their health bar and Covid will hit that harsher for those at the lower end but it will impact everyone. Perhaps it should be used to encourage healthier living and getting people out exercising. I'm generally not anti vaxx (in fact I've been one of the biggest proponents of the covid vaccine) but I had to laugh when some obese Aussie politician called Novak Djokovic a "danger to public health". Yet again, it's the same stupid dance we do every week. The bed wetters come out on a Tuesday quoting the catch up figures as if that's the every day story and then the deniers come out on Sunday quoting weekend figures as if that's every day. Personally bored of the obvious inherent biases that people can't seem to let go of now. It's no longer March 2020. Edited January 24, 2022 by Tetteys Jig 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,690 Posted January 24, 2022 32 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said: personally, I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with the information from the FOI request. I'm certain it's been available all this time from ONS anyway so there's no "cover up" or anything. As ever, it's peoples horrible interpretation of the data to suit their agenda. It's not false information to suggest only about a tenth of the covid deaths were basically solely Covid at all but as Victimofmaths states, there's around half of the whole population that have a preexisting condition. Many of those people potentially had years of quality life ahead of them prior to getting Covid. The way I've seen it is a little bit like the street fighter analogy I came up with. Covid is an attack that does 5 damage with 100 being full health. Everyone is at different points on their health bar and Covid will hit that harsher for those at the lower end but it will impact everyone. Perhaps it should be used to encourage healthier living and getting people out exercising. I'm generally not anti vaxx (in fact I've been one of the biggest proponents of the covid vaccine) but I had to laugh when some obese Aussie politician called Novak Djokovic a "danger to public health". Yet again, it's the same stupid dance we do every week. The bed wetters come out on a Tuesday quoting the catch up figures as if that's the every day story and then the deniers come out on Sunday quoting weekend figures as if that's every day. Personally bored of the obvious inherent biases that people can't seem to let go of now. It's no longer March 2020. Don't disagree with that - Nobody said there was anything wrong with the FOI request but just those that seemed to leap or infer conclusions. I gave up with it when it started to misunderstand life expectancy - Pete went for the belt'n'braces rebuttal which I thought was largely obvious anyway without all the figures (most victims have other chronic comorbidities) . It's possible the guy said it was misleading in the second half but I hadn't the time to wait forever. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KernowCanary 214 Posted January 24, 2022 On 21/01/2022 at 17:28, ricardo said: National 95,787 - 288 rate of decrease of 27.3% 1.4 million tests Local Norwich West rate 960.5 not updated yet N & N Patients 18-01-2022 113 17-01-2022 118 16-01-2022 114 15-01-2022 109 14-01-2022 116 Vax 1st Dose 17,806 90.7% done Norwich numbers 79% Booster rate 55.1% 2nd Dose 33,674 83.6% done 73.2% Booster 65,203 total 36,753,644 63.9% In Hospital 20-01-2022 17,976 19-01-2022 18,517 18-01-2022 19,014 17-01-2022 19,498 16-01-2022 19,271 5 news said a case increase from 7 days ago, are they wrong and confusing the figures from devolved nations?. The main thing is that hospital figures continue to decrease. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KernowCanary 214 Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) I think it was said on this thread or elsewhere, that when the cases start to drop, they suddenly stop doing this while they are still high and then flatten out at that point because we keep testing so many people. It looks like after yesterday’s week on week increase, that’s starting to happen and yesterday in Cornwall almost every region had a red arrow indicating an increase in cases per 100,000. This happened the same day the relaxation of the rules got announced. Hopefully this is just a blip and those in charge realise cases are irrelevant now, as it’s hospital figures that matter the most. Edited January 25, 2022 by KernowCanary Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted January 25, 2022 National 94,326 - 439 rate of decrease of 3.2% 1.2 million tests Local Norwich West rate 718.2 N & N Patients 18-01-2022 113 17-01-2022 118 16-01-2022 114 15-01-2022 109 14-01-2022 116 Vax 1st Dose 16,005 90.9% done Norwich numbers 79.1% Booster rate 55.7% 2nd Dose 29,833 83.9% done 73.4% Booster 55,887 total 36,996,939 64.3% In Hospital 21-01-2022 17,523 20-01-2022 17,986 19-01-2022 18,529 18-01-2022 19,025 17-01-2022 19,506 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KernowCanary 214 Posted January 25, 2022 Patients in English hospitals down 475 to 14,088 today, that is down 2130 from last Tuesday's 16,218 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, KernowCanary said: Patients in English hospitals down 475 to 14,088 today, that is down 2130 from last Tuesday's 16,218 Great news. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted January 25, 2022 10 hours ago, KernowCanary said: I think it was said on this thread or elsewhere, that when the cases start to drop, they suddenly stop doing this while they are still high and then flatten out at that point because we keep testing so many people. It looks like after yesterday’s week on week increase, that’s starting to happen and yesterday in Cornwall almost every region had a red arrow indicating an increase in cases per 100,000. This happened the same day the relaxation of the rules got announced. Hopefully this is just a blip and those in charge realise cases are irrelevant now, as it’s hospital figures that matter the most. it's so obviously unvaccinated kids gathering into rooms of 30+ people that is having a bit of an upwards tick. This is their first few weeks of Omicron exposure coming into play after the 2 week Christmas break. Omicron was barely about prior to the Christmas holidays. Hopefully this sub wave of cases will peak soon then at least leave large swathes of kids some good solid natural immunity from transmitting Covid further. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CANARYKING 634 Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, ricardo said: Great news. 439 deaths is not so great Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 739 Posted January 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, CANARYKING said: 439 deaths is not so great But deaths from anything other than covid are great? Or what’s the point you’re making? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted January 25, 2022 Another reminder for those who still don't understand how deaths are reported. Regular Tuesday reminder that today's reported 439 deaths did not *happen* in the last 24 hours. They are all shown in orange against actual date-of-death on this chart. In fact it's looking increasingly promising that deaths have already peaked mid-January. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted January 25, 2022 France reports 501k cases tonight. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KernowCanary 214 Posted January 25, 2022 What’s going on in France!?. Are boosters low by any chance and how many people are in hospital?. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 350 Posted January 26, 2022 11 hours ago, ricardo said: Another reminder for those who still don't understand how deaths are reported. Regular Tuesday reminder that today's reported 439 deaths did not *happen* in the last 24 hours. They are all shown in orange against actual date-of-death on this chart. In fact it's looking increasingly promising that deaths have already peaked mid-January. I think Omicron is really showing up the differences in the ways various countries record Covid-19 deaths. For example, the Netherlands is reporting around 50K cases/day but only around 10 deaths. France, I believe, also records deaths differently to the UK. I guess the best indicator will be the excess deaths when the figures become published to fully reflect this time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KernowCanary 214 Posted January 26, 2022 Now it’s been said that two thirds who got Omicron had Covid before….. When will this ever end?, I just hope hospital figures continue to decline and that’s all those in charge will worry about. Why they still publish the daily figures after July 19th still baffles me today. Apparently it’s in “the public’s interest” to keep this up, while everyone I know is sick of it and turns the channel over when it’s announced. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Creative Midfielder 1,976 Posted January 26, 2022 4 hours ago, Mark .Y. said: I think Omicron is really showing up the differences in the ways various countries record Covid-19 deaths. For example, the Netherlands is reporting around 50K cases/day but only around 10 deaths. France, I believe, also records deaths differently to the UK. I guess the best indicator will be the excess deaths when the figures become published to fully reflect this time. There are certainly differences in the way that different countries record the data but I suspect it is only one factor in what appear at times to be quite startling differences in outcomes such as your Dutch example - as well as vaccines obviously, I'm thinking that for example that obesity is a major (the major?) risk factor with Covid and the UK, and the US, have a huge (no pun intended) issue with that relative to many European countries - I've no idea whether the Netherlands is one of those but with all those bikes I'm guessing that its quite likely 😀 But as you say, the genuine/meaningful comparison is/and will be excess not Covid deaths. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted January 26, 2022 46 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said: There are certainly differences in the way that different countries record the data but I suspect it is only one factor in what appear at times to be quite startling differences in outcomes such as your Dutch example - as well as vaccines obviously, I'm thinking that for example that obesity is a major (the major?) risk factor with Covid and the UK, and the US, have a huge (no pun intended) issue with that relative to many European countries - I've no idea whether the Netherlands is one of those but with all those bikes I'm guessing that its quite likely 😀 But as you say, the genuine/meaningful comparison is/and will be excess not Covid deaths. Apparently there are still different methods of analysing the data even after 2 years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said: But as you say, the genuine/meaningful comparison is/and will be excess not Covid deaths. This will be the ultimate arbiter. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted January 26, 2022 National 102,292 - 346 rate of decrease of 0.9% 1.2 million tests Local Norwich West rate 674.9 N & N Patients (no weekly update yet) 18-01-2022 113 17-01-2022 118 16-01-2022 114 15-01-2022 109 14-01-2022 116 Vax 1st Dose 13,304 90.9% done Norwich numbers 79.1% Booster rate 55.8% 2nd Dose 27,804 83.9% done 73.5% Booster 51,097 total 37,048,033 64.4% In Hospital 25-01-2022 16,594 24-01-2022 17,201 23-01-2022 16,931 22-01-2022 16,966 21-01-2022 17,572 20-01-2022 18,025 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KernowCanary 214 Posted January 27, 2022 (edited) Idiot Stephen Reicher given free airtime by a “breakfast show” yet again saying through his webcam in a dimly lit room, just to match the mood of what he is saying, being that the virus can get deadlier and the government are doing wrong in going back to plan A. What an utter **** and everyone on his Twitter “threads” agreeing with him. This is the same moron in June last year who said while we were eating our cereals, that people do not have to take the vaccine if they don’t want to, while saying during that same month that the government are wrong in releasing restrictions, so it will get bad again. Yet we all know how wrong his prediction turned out seeing how not having restrictions or so called “curbs” ever since then, has been the right thing to do. This physiological idiot who works for Sage, has no idea on anything. He’s just a lockdown septic who has not got one good thing to say about Boris. Every tweet is slagging him off, nothing positive. Okay, I’m no fan of the bloke just like many on here, but we have all agreed that since 2021, that our government have got all the key decisions right. If that certain organisation that shares its name with a herb and it’s cronies had their way, we would be floating in and out of lockdowns with us having no say over it. They should be swept away out of existence like leaves on the floor. Edited January 27, 2022 by KernowCanary 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted January 27, 2022 Still virtually everyone wearing masks in Tesco this morning. Not sure if Tesco asked people to do it as Sainsbury did. Pasty shop still asking for observance. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted January 27, 2022 (edited) Prof Spector saying that infections may rise for a time in younger cohorts (schools etc) and unvaxed. Older corts still in gentle decline. Also of those in hospital with Covid, 52% are in for non Covid related disorders. Edited January 27, 2022 by ricardo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites