Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,190]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes. The 3rd is incredibly important. I read that a 3rd Pfizer or Moderna jab gave you x 25 times more resistance.

This...just breaking now too:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/two-jabs-give-less-protection-against-catching-omicron-than-delta-uk-data-shows?

Demonstrates very strongly that everyone needs their 3rd vaccination (which I would prefer it to be called and NOT a booster...a matter of semantics I realise but an important distinction for me).

Indeed Sonyc

As you know I have been begging people to get their boosters and not wait until you can book. Unfortunately as BJ didn’t take it serious in September it won’t be until mid Jan when it can go at full pelt again, but it is vital that the forgotten home bound are got to urgently. I understand that is happening in earnest next week. 
We are doing our best but obviously lots of nurses cannot be taken out of the hospitals as the hospitals are approaching breaking point. The furloughed airline staff are now back with their aircraft employers. 
Day off tomorrow for the football and Wednesday as we won’t get back till early hours, but other than that 12 hour shifts.

My daughter and son in law have just tested positive and they are triple jabbed, so glad I got them to have their boosters.

[The Real Buh 3,423]

>Preliminary data

>highly caveated

>released by government department

those rushing for endless vaccination of healthy people with no conditions should try and rush to conclusions a little slower

[Well b back 3,190]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

I should make the most of attending the next two games, should you wish to go.

I still believe the vaccines will hold up against serious illness but the sheer number being predicted ( and that is from real life data ) means we have absoloutely no idea what % will get hospitalised.

I know you are one for real world stats like me, did you hear the Scotland stats ? ( based on event data ). If you have a room of 100 people with one positive in the room, if you are in there for an hour 50 - 60 people will test positive within 5 days ( does not matter about the vaccination status ).

I am looking for the actual data they used, if you find it before me please post it.

[Aggy 752]

A link from today which suggests severity not seeming any worse than delta in South Africa - the hospitalisation increases there are /looking like they may be a result of the numbers of infection rather than any increased level of severity.

What it doesn’t say is how many of those admitted are vaccinated at all . The links I and Sony put up earlier refer to catching it/being symptomatic but both say too early to see effect of vaccines on severe illness.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-sees-positive-signs-hospital-data-amid-omicron-wave-2021-12-10/

“Although scientists say more time is needed to arrive at a definitive conclusion, Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the signs on severity were positive.

"Preliminary data does suggest that while there is increasing rate of hospitalisation ... it looks like it is purely because of the numbers rather than as a result of any severity of the variant itself, this Omicron," he said.

South Africa reported more than 22,000 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, a record during the current fourth wave of infections driven by Omicron but still below a peak of more than 26,000 daily cases during a third wave fuelled by the Delta variant. 

It has fully vaccinated about 38% of adults, more than in many other African countries but well short of the government's year-end target. It recently delayed some vaccine deliveries due to oversupply as the pace of inoculations slowed. “
 

 

Here’s another one from yesterday which, while not giving figures, does say:

“It added that the increase in younger admissions to the hospital could be a result of lower vaccination rates in this age group, stating, “it may be that this is a vaccination effect as 57% of people over the age of 50 have been vaccinated in the province compared to 34% in the 18-to-49-year group.” The majority of the Covid ward patients were unvaccinated.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/south-africa-omicron-crisis-cases-hospitalizations-and-vaccinations.html

Obviously not much to go off there, but sounds hopeful at least. That the amount of admissions seems to reflect percentage of vaccinated (ie; fewer vaccinated in an age group = more admissions from that age group) suggests the vaccines are at least partly effective. Likewise, that the “majority” are unvaccinated.

 

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

45 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I still believe the vaccines will hold up against serious illness but the sheer number being predicted ( and that is from real life data ) means we have absoloutely no idea what % will get hospitalised.

I know you are one for real world stats like me, did you hear the Scotland stats ? ( based on event data ). If you have a room of 100 people with one positive in the room, if you are in there for an hour 50 - 60 people will test positive within 5 days ( does not matter about the vaccination status ).

I am looking for the actual data they used, if you find it before me please post it.

My view of this has been, more infectious and less virulent, I still subscribe to that,  but the rate of spread atm, if it continues, the dry tinder is bound to get found and the NHS will struggle, thats what will lead to tighter restrictions I suspect and likely quite soon. Not enough third doses to cope with the rate of growth.

Edited December 10, 2021 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Yes, in a months time I could be fighting with the remnants of humanity to lick the last traces of chip fat from ancient discarded wrappings outside the Grosvenor Chip shop in Pottergate.

Looking on the brightside it should be easy to get a casual ticket for next seasons Championship campaign.

Keep the fat to slick the hair, you may need the papers for bog roll. 😀

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

This is reality.

Government leak (or really laying the ground for action....)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

[sonyc 5,492]

8 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

This is reality.

Government leak (or really laying the ground for action....)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

I saw the same article earlier. It is clear the government are very spooked about this, hence the extremely rushed press conference earlier this week as the latest chaotic Johnson incident was tumbling out. Lot of worry about care homes and the NHS again because of the systemic weakness of our health system after the years of cuts and under funding (which at least has been realised but it will be like turning a super tanker .... assuming of course the real plan is to not to let it struggle for longer and then introduce more privatisation).

It makes me nervous that a lot more is known about Omicron. Yet I also want to believe it is less virulent reading many SA reports. I believe the truth might be somewhere in-between. 

The next 7 days will be telling. And if I was a betting person I can easily see the Plan C being brought in by next Friday.

[ricardo 7,347]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

This is reality.

Government leak (or really laying the ground for action....)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

Meanwhile at the epicentre of Omicron, S.Africa, Botswana etc, no lockdown, no overcrowded hospitals, no government or health service panic.

???????

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

I saw the same article earlier. It is clear the government are very spooked about this, hence the extremely rushed press conference earlier this week as the latest chaotic Johnson incident was tumbling out. Lot of worry about care homes and the NHS again because of the systemic weakness of our health system after the years of cuts and under funding (which at least has been realised but it will be like turning a super tanker .... assuming of course the real plan is to not to let it struggle for longer and then introduce more privatisation).

It makes me nervous that a lot more is known about Omicron. Yet I also want to believe it is less virulent reading many SA reports. I believe the truth might be somewhere in-between. 

The next 7 days will be telling. And if I was a betting person I can easily see the Plan C being brought in by next Friday.

Frankly SonyC I suspect plan 'C' will be on by Monday. It was and always is a numbers game with Covid. Gove (who is after all a grown up) was at tonight's Cobra meeting and was 'spooked' . This leak is no doubt the result to prepare the public.

Johnson is finished thank God.

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

This is reality.

Government leak (or really laying the ground for action....)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/stringent-uk-covid-measures-needed-within-a-week-leak-reveals

I can't honestly see how they envisage keeping r below 1 without shutting schools to be honest. If they aren't prepared to do that then it will just have to peak naturally.

It's probably wise to tell the CEV to go back to sheilding for the next couple of months while this wave blows over tbh. Too many folk, particularly younger working age people have had enough and aren't individually worried enough to follow strict rules now.

I'd imagine London itself is completely ****ed now. Clear as day to see the rises there and it will obviously be the Omicron epicentre. Doesn't help that they have such a low vaccination rate too.

Maybe just lock London down and let the rest of us get on with it until Jan at least 😉

[The Real Buh 3,423]

[ricardo 7,347]

Quite surprised at the low level so far in U.K.

Edited December 11, 2021 by ricardo

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

11 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I can't honestly see how they envisage keeping r below 1 without shutting schools to be honest. If they aren't prepared to do that then it will just have to peak naturally.

Schools and Universities are about to be shut for 3 weeks or so. That will help and by then we will know what we are facing.

However your comment does highlight the  old chestnut that should we have vaccinated/boosted the young first or at least those at school if that is the primary means of transmission ?

 

[ricardo 7,347]

Over fifties still flat or down

[ricardo 7,347]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Schools and Universities are about to be shut for 3 weeks or so. That will help and by then we will know what we are facing.

However your comment does highlight the  old chestnut that should we have vaccinated/boosted the young first or at least those at school if that is the primary means of transmission ?

 

JVCI prevarication during the summer was a big mistake.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

JVCI prevarication during the summer was a big mistake.

Simply Yes. The 'vulnerable' or oldies can at least in principal shielded for a week or two longer in the summer autumn.

[Well b back 3,190]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

JVCI prevarication during the summer was a big mistake.

And the government decision not to take the boosters serious or export vaccine to poorer nations was a bigger one.

[Well b back 3,190]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Simply Yes. The 'vulnerable' or oldies can at least in principal shielded for a week or two longer in the summer autumn.

We dumped an estimated 600,000 doses that went out of date in one month.

The school kids should have been vaccinated in the school holidays, but that was way to simple, instead resources and vaccine have been totally wasted going into schools. The government were told, but chose to ignore.
 

[ricardo 7,347]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

We dumped an estimated 600,000 doses that went out of date in one month.

The school kids should have been vaccinated in the school holidays, but that was way to simple, instead resources and vaccine have been totally wasted going into schools. The government were told, but chose to ignore.
 

Perhaps they should have overuled the JVCI earlier.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

6 minutes ago, Well b back said:

And the government decision not to take the boosters serious or export vaccine to poorer nations was a bigger one.

They are always 'reactive' - never pro-active I'm afraid. Also spin it as 'gone away', it's over, pat on the back and then the complacency starts. Where was the booster 'urgency' or indeed vaccinating the world?

This autumn / winter was actually wholly predictable - if it wasn't a new variant it would of been Delta ++ and so on. The odd always heavily favoured the virus.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

13 hours ago, ricardo said:

Meanwhile at the epicentre of Omicron, S.Africa, Botswana etc, no lockdown, no overcrowded hospitals, no government or health service panic.

???????

Yes. Strange that the nest seems clear.

[Well b back 3,190]

Just now, ricardo said:

Perhaps they should have overuled the JVCI earlier.

As you well know firstly they did not request a review, despite the NHS begging them to get it done in the summer, secondly as they keep telling us the decision is the government’s not the JCVI.

Was it the JCVI that decided to shut the hubs, was it the JCVI that decided that it was to difficult logistically to vaccinate the house bound, Or them that decided to not send texts or emails to those eligible. Johnson even used jokes to explain boosters.

 

[Aggy 752]

On 11/12/2021 at 10:34, ricardo said:

Perhaps they should have overuled the JVCI earlier.

Follow the science unless you don’t like it

[Aggy 752]

No issues with booking boosters where I am, although not sure how the systems differentiate between who is supposed to be able to book or not. I’m not supposed to be able to until tomorrow (although that was only announced today?) but yesterday was able to book in to get ’boosted’ this afternoon.

Choice of three places with slots today, with many venues and slots available over the next couple of weeks.

Edited December 12, 2021 by Aggy

[ricardo 7,347]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Edited December 12, 2021 by ricardo

[Barbe bleu 814]

On 11/12/2021 at 10:26, Well b back said:

And the government decision not to take the boosters serious or export vaccine to poorer nations was a bigger one.

What else could we have done with boosters though?  If we started earlier than 1 oct that first cohort,  the most vulnerable, would already have aB levels that may prove inadequate for early clearance of Omicron  meaning we have made the problem worse,  not better.   Same applies if we had gone bigger earlier.  If the December push had happened at, say,  the start of November,  we might have had a more relaxed Christmas, but a dicey late winter.

I think we are all still seeking that silver bullet. It was lockdowns before, then it was vaccines, and now its boosters and lockdowns. I think eventually we'll have to accept that the silver bullet is a myth and this virus will do what it will do and it will come to us all in time.

[Herman 9,716]

Is the NHS booster website always a bit erratic??

[ricardo 7,347]

National

48,854 - 52

rate of increase of  11.9%  

Local

Norwich   West rate             333.7      Local   R  estimated 0.9 - 1.1

    

N&N Patients  (falling)

07-12-2021                                18 06-12-2021 23 05-12-2021 22 04-12-2021 22                   Vax      1st Dose      25,378              89.1% done                               Norwich numbers   77.8%        Booster rate 28.2 2nd Dose     36,873              81.3% done                                                                  71.1% Booster     530,086     total          23,124,829                40.2% In Hospital 09-12-2021                                       7,413 08-12-2021 7,356 07-12-2021 7,344 06-12-2021 7,361 05-12-2021 7,258 04-12-2021 7,161

[Well b back 3,190]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

Is the NHS booster website always a bit erratic??

Just go to walk in