Corona Virus main thread

[Indy 1,975]

11 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

pretty much with you on this, though I can see it being a bit more of a problem with schools potentially. So long as our booster campaign gets to the JCVI 1-9 in equally large numbers (like 95%) then I think the hospitals will primarily be fine (other than all the other non covid issues they have had for many years now).

Weirdly enough, I found the whole "3 fold reduction in prior immunity from infection" thing quite encouraging as it potentially means less of a hit in other areas. Clearly this is from a selfish point of view as it probably spells disaster for countries with poor vaccination rates particularly in their older populace. Surely now we know even more so that we need to get this vaccine round the world as quick as possible.

I wonder what the next big variant will do. Are we just going to do this dance forever or will we ever get to a point where we have high confidence in our vaccines and treatments so much that we can just put it to the back of our minds like we do with the yearly flu outbreaks?

I think the treatments are getting better and certainly we don’t bat an eyelid at 40,000 deaths from flu in previous years, so if Covid death numbers keep to around 750 a week, then it’s in the same bracket now. It’s a mad world where with social media and the global network it’s made Covid a focus which is going to be hard to shake off into the background.

Agree about global vaccinations, far too slow.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Indy

[Aggy 618]

2 hours ago, Indy said:

Thanks for the links guys, like last year flu deaths would be much higher as most are down Covid, so it does make me question if Covid hadn’t killed off a lot of vulnerable people flu possibly would have.

But wearing masks and good hygiene certainly help combat flu too.

A strange one with flu as from my understanding of the charts in the link BB provided (and there were lots, many of which I skipped over so I may have completely misinterpreted!) it doesn’t even look like there’s much of it floating around - low infections. Not a bad thing of course, but quite strange. Although isn’t unusual for peak flu season to be in the January/Feb parts of winter rather than Nov/Dec so that might change.

I was half expecting to see quite a few flu infections but not many deaths, which would have suggested people were dying from covid ‘before’ flu. But that doesn’t appear to be the case.

At the moment doesn’t look like there is much flu at all. If that’s a result of masks and social distancing then I suppose there are two ways of looking at it. Of course its good that it is helping with one deadly infection. But, if masks are so effective against flu as to almost eliminate it, why are covid cases still so high - is it the case that covid is “too strong” for masks and social distancing to be of much use?

However, I suspect the low flu infections are less to do with masks and social distancing and more just that flu hasn’t yet really ‘arrived’. 

[Upo 91]

2 hours ago, Indy said:

I think the treatments are getting better and certainly we don’t bat an eyelid at 40,000 deaths from flu in previous years, so if Covid death numbers keep to around 750 a week, then it’s in the same bracket now. It’s a mad world where with social media and the global network it’s made Covid a focus which is going to be hard to shake off into the background.

Agree about global vaccinations, far too slow.

30k deaths from influenza is an exceptionally bad year. Usually under 25k. I don't know where you get that 40k from. If UK keeps losing 150 per day, it's annualized 50k.

[Indy 1,975]

27 minutes ago, Upo said:

30k deaths from influenza is an exceptionally bad year. Usually under 25k. I don't know where you get that 40k from. If UK keeps losing 150 per day, it's annualized 50k.

A bad year as this one is forecast is around 40,000 attributed, but it does vary year to year depending in the strain of flu. Up to 2000 we had a spate of cold winters where over 50k were attributed to flu connections, with this years strain and if we get a cold hit we can hit 40k. If you look at the charts as Aggy pointed out last year and this year flu deaths are very low and some who died of Covid might well have died from flu. I’m not sure why your so hooked up on Covid, you’re really a bit of a doom merchant. The vaccines are really effective, the treatments are getting better and even with the worst mutation the drug manufacturers have the ability to tweak them! It’s because of people who love a drama that keep full focus on the negative as positive doesn’t have the impact……

Edited December 4, 2021 by Indy

[Indy 1,975]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

A strange one with flu as from my understanding of the charts in the link BB provided (and there were lots, many of which I skipped over so I may have completely misinterpreted!) it doesn’t even look like there’s much of it floating around - low infections. Not a bad thing of course, but quite strange. Although isn’t unusual for peak flu season to be in the January/Feb parts of winter rather than Nov/Dec so that might change.

I was half expecting to see quite a few flu infections but not many deaths, which would have suggested people were dying from covid ‘before’ flu. But that doesn’t appear to be the case.

At the moment doesn’t look like there is much flu at all. If that’s a result of masks and social distancing then I suppose there are two ways of looking at it. Of course its good that it is helping with one deadly infection. But, if masks are so effective against flu as to almost eliminate it, why are covid cases still so high - is it the case that covid is “too strong” for masks and social distancing to be of much use?

However, I suspect the low flu infections are less to do with masks and social distancing and more just that flu hasn’t yet really ‘arrived’. 

Yes I’m not sure it has either, but no one mentions flu!

[Yellow Fever 1,942]

18 minutes ago, Indy said:

Yes I’m not sure it has either, but no one mentions flu!

The short answer is the R0 of Covid (even the original)  is very much higher than than that of 'flu'. All else follows.

Many similar discussions - this one popped up instantly

https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/

Edited December 4, 2021 by Yellow Fever
https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/

[Indy 1,975]

12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The short answer is the R0 of Covid (even the original)  is very much higher than than that of 'flu'. All else follows.

Many similar discussions - this one popped up instantly

https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/

Indeed, like I have been saying at what point will Covid be viewed at the same level as flu? Before Covid not many people talked about flu, no one wore masks. As I’ve said if the death per year of Covid stays around 50k it will be the norm, there’s always people who won’t let the Covid drama go nor learn to live with Covid and the death it’ll bring as sad as any death is. But there’s going to have an acceptance at some point, isn’t there?

[Yellow Fever 1,942]

8 minutes ago, Indy said:

Indeed, like I have been saying at what point will Covid be viewed at the same level as flu? Before Covid not many people talked about flu, no one wore masks. As I’ve said if the death per year of Covid stays around 50k it will be the norm, there’s always people who won’t let the Covid drama go nor learn to live with Covid and the death it’ll bring as sad as any death is. But there’s going to have an acceptance at some point, isn’t there?

Indy - its the IF.

IF we had a Flu variant that was as severe as Covid (it isn't) and IF it was as transmissible (it isn't - more easy to isolate and prevent - the masks etc.) then almost certainly we would have the same restrictions.  Indeed pre Covid the government pandemic plans were based on such a flu variant!

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-pandemic-preparedness/annex-a-about-exercise-cygnus

Discussions on flu vs Covid have been done to death far far too many times. Covid simply is far far more of problem today which is why governments across the world of all persuasions treat it with the respect it currently deserves. 

Yes one day in perhaps 3 to 5 years (typical for pandemics) we will have learnt globally to live with it and its offspring.

[Upo 91]

40 minutes ago, Indy said:

Indeed, like I have been saying at what point will Covid be viewed at the same level as flu? Before Covid not many people talked about flu, no one wore masks. As I’ve said if the death per year of Covid stays around 50k it will be the norm, there’s always people who won’t let the Covid drama go nor learn to live with Covid and the death it’ll bring as sad as any death is. But there’s going to have an acceptance at some point, isn’t there?

There is definitely some hypocrisy in principle if we allow death from one preventable cause (flu) and not another ( corona). Of course, quantitatively you can make the argument that flu is not nearly as bad as corona and corona is simply intolerable. Yellow Fever made a good post there. Personally I'd make the argument that we should prevent both.

Below is development of average life expectancy in UK starting from 1765. Progress goes against convention. We have come to expect more from life than resignation to misery and suffering. Yet that is what we're being asked now. We have the means to do better. Much better.

 

[Indy 1,975]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Indy - its the IF.

IF we had a Flu variant that was as severe as Covid (it isn't) and IF it was as transmissible (it isn't - more easy to isolate and prevent - the masks etc.) then almost certainly we would have the same restrictions.  Indeed pre Covid the government pandemic plans were based on such a flu variant!

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-pandemic-preparedness/annex-a-about-exercise-cygnus

Discussions on flu vs Covid have been done to death far far too many times. Covid simply is far far more of problem today which is why governments across the world of all persuasions treat it with the respect it currently deserves. 

Yes one day in perhaps 3 to 5 years (typical for pandemics) we will have learnt globally to live with it and its offspring.

Agree, but I wasn’t comparing the two, I was making the point we don’t even flinch at the flu, what point do we do the same with Covid? The numbers of hospitalisation and deaths at the current levels is very much less than some were forecasting, we have a number of viral treatments in conjunction with vaccines and let’s not beat round the bush it’s predominantly those with other life threatening issues who are susceptible from both. Everyone know Covid is far more of a threat, but I think there’s going to be a point where it’s go as we are and there will be deaths, that’s the way of the world. 

[ricardo 4,463]

National

42,848 - 127

rate of increase of  2.5%     

Local

Norwich   West rate             259.6      slight rise, low numbers             Local   R  estimated 0.9 - 1.1

    

N&N Patients  (falling)

30-11-2021                                   20 29-11-2021 23 28-11-2021 24 27-11-2021 26 26-11-2021 27

Vax     

1st Dose      22,828              88.8% done                               Norwich numbers   77.6% 

2nd Dose     28,945              80.8% done                                                                  70.8%

Booster     372,577     total          19,809,442                 34.4%

In Hospital  

02-12-2021	7,373
01-12-2021	7,321
30-11-2021	7,652
29-11-2021	7,645
28-11-2021	7,420
27-11-2021	7,395
26-11-2021	7,550

Edited December 4, 2021 by ricardo

[Aggy 618]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Agree, but I wasn’t comparing the two, I was making the point we don’t even flinch at the flu, what point do we do the same with Covid? The numbers of hospitalisation and deaths at the current levels is very much less than some were forecasting, we have a number of viral treatments in conjunction with vaccines and let’s not beat round the bush it’s predominantly those with other life threatening issues who are susceptible from both. Everyone know Covid is far more of a threat, but I think there’s going to be a point where it’s go as we are and there will be deaths, that’s the way of the world.

I expect if you travelled back in time 60 or 70 years before flu jabs were ‘a thing’ people wouldn’t be as dismissive of ‘just flu’ as some on this thread are. A lot of people who have been lucky enough to live through the least risky period of human history ever who appear to have forgotten that humans die of things.

 

[Well b back 2,104]

Good move hopefully not to late

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59534685

[Yellow Fever 1,942]

34 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Good move hopefully not to late

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59534685

They are too late if the intention was to slow Omicron. They may however limit the next one !

[Yellow Fever 1,942]

3 hours ago, Indy said:

Agree, but I wasn’t comparing the two, I was making the point we don’t even flinch at the flu, what point do we do the same with Covid? The numbers of hospitalisation and deaths at the current levels is very much less than some were forecasting, we have a number of viral treatments in conjunction with vaccines and let’s not beat round the bush it’s predominantly those with other life threatening issues who are susceptible from both. Everyone know Covid is far more of a threat, but I think there’s going to be a point where it’s go as we are and there will be deaths, that’s the way of the world. 

Fair comment but the answer is really just an extension or corollary of the one before. When Covid is stable,  largely predictable and  no more of an issue than a typical seasonal flu year. I suspect we are still some way off that as Omicron looks very infectious, far more than flu, and unless it then behaves as a common cold.

If say half of us got proper flu then the NHS would easily collapse. 

[Indy 1,975]

32 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Fair comment but the answer is really just an extension or corollary of the one before. When Covid is stable,  largely predictable and  no more of an issue than a typical seasonal flu year. I suspect we are still some way off that as Omicron looks very infectious, far more than flu, and unless it then behaves as a common cold.

If say half of us got proper flu then the NHS would easily collapse. 

Well true, but as you say initial reports look like it’s fairly mild in its symptoms so fingers crossed we get a good result.

[Tetteys Jig 715]

53 minutes ago, Indy said:

Well true, but as you say initial reports look like it’s fairly mild in its symptoms so fingers crossed we get a good result.

it's the unpredictability for sure. at current levels it's a bit of a nuisance but not a big problem. We've seen what can happen if our vaccine wall fails though so I guess the key is gaining trust in that. For me, I'm still confident it will but I appreciate others are more apprehensive.

I'm waiting for my go at the sniffles later this week after being sat watching the panto surrounded by snotty kids this afternoon anyway! Gotta give Dr Pfizer a bit of a test at some point!

[ricardo 4,463]

8 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

it's the unpredictability for sure. at current levels it's a bit of a nuisance but not a big problem. We've seen what can happen if our vaccine wall fails though so I guess the key is gaining trust in that. For me, I'm still confident it will but I appreciate others are more apprehensive.

I'm waiting for my go at the sniffles later this week after being sat watching the panto surrounded by snotty kids this afternoon anyway! Gotta give Dr Pfizer a bit of a test at some point!

Everyone is going to get it at sometime, hopefully with the vax prog and new medication it will be a mild illness for most of us. The odds are much more in our favour than twelve months ago.

[ricardo 4,463]

Good news from South Africa.

 

 

[chicken 1,513]

On 17/07/2021 at 20:12, Well b back said:

Those with Pfizer 2 doses all seem ok, but it got me wondering. As I was so exposed did my body have to have a fight to kill off any Delta that made its way into me ? Am I know filled with immunity to Delta as well, is being exposed to it to that extreme the same as actually testing positive. Would love to know.

Yes and no.

The vaccine improves your immune's system ability to fight the corona virus. Immunity is not 100% hence you can still find covid-19 in your system and test positive. If you have been exposed to the Delta variant then it could possibly boost your immunity to it further. It depends upon how heavy a dose and how long you were exposed to it. Also, our immune systems are all different. 

[ricardo 4,463]

National

43,992 - 54

rate of increase of  5.4%     

Local

Norwich   West rate             259.6      Local   R  estimated 0.9 - 1.1

    

N&N Patients  (falling)

30-11-2021                                   20 29-11-2021 23 28-11-2021 24 27-11-2021 26 26-11-2021 27

Vax     

1st Dose      25,679              88.8% done                               Norwich numbers   77.6% 

2nd Dose     35,719              80.9% done                                                                  70.9%

Booster     448,975     total          20,258,417                35.2%

In Hospital  

02-12-2021	7,373
01-12-2021	7,321
30-11-2021	7,652
29-11-2021	7,645
28-11-2021	7,420
27-11-2021	7,395
26-11-2021	7,550

[Iwans Big Toe 189]

So omicron is an anagram of moronic. Coincidence?

 

 

[Tetteys Jig 715]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59542211#comments

seems most of the premise of this is to request treating pandemic preparedness the same way we'd have a defence budget and an army even when we aren't at war.

Its a pretty good point and just like the army, I doesn't mean we'd have a bunch of scientists sat around twiddling their thumbs in times where there is no pandemic etc.

Interesting hearing her comments on Omicron, starting to look like we could have astronomical cases but still keep the vast majority people from hospitalisation if the vaccines still prevent serious illness and death.

I wonder if we'd accept 500k cases a day but no risk from current hospitalisation and death levels?

[Indy 1,975]

48 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59542211#comments

seems most of the premise of this is to request treating pandemic preparedness the same way we'd have a defence budget and an army even when we aren't at war.

Its a pretty good point and just like the army, I doesn't mean we'd have a bunch of scientists sat around twiddling their thumbs in times where there is no pandemic etc.

Interesting hearing her comments on Omicron, starting to look like we could have astronomical cases but still keep the vast majority people from hospitalisation if the vaccines still prevent serious illness and death.

I wonder if we'd accept 500k cases a day but no risk from current hospitalisation and death levels?

Wouldn’t 500k per day build up herd immunity in 120 days?

Edited December 6, 2021 by Indy

[Tetteys Jig 715]

6 minutes ago, Indy said:

Wouldn’t 500k per day build up herd immunity in 120 days?

I guess in theory it would take 70m people 120 days to get infected at a rate of 500k a day.

Alternatively, if the Omicron rate doubled every day to a peak then halved every day to the end we'd peak at 16m infections on day 24 and infect 48m in 47 days

[ricardo 4,463]

ZOE going back up.

is it the Omicron rush?

[Aggy 618]

5 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59542211#comments

seems most of the premise of this is to request treating pandemic preparedness the same way we'd have a defence budget and an army even when we aren't at war.

Its a pretty good point and just like the army, I doesn't mean we'd have a bunch of scientists sat around twiddling their thumbs in times where there is no pandemic etc.

Interesting hearing her comments on Omicron, starting to look like we could have astronomical cases but still keep the vast majority people from hospitalisation if the vaccines still prevent serious illness and death.

I wonder if we'd accept 500k cases a day but no risk from current hospitalisation and death levels?

Haven’t read the article but it’s not just about scientists. The government has underfunded the nhs for decades and then seemed surprised when it didn’t have enough beds, masks or protective equipment. As we’ve been saying, hospitals are almost overwhelmed virtually every year, the waiting lists were a joke before covid etc etc. That’s not just because we haven’t got an army of scientists waiting for a pandemic, it’s because the funding has been a shambles for ages.

As to the last question, why would we not? If you could guarantee hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed, you surely wouldn’t care less how many cases there are - same way we don’t care how much common cold there is.

[ricardo 4,463]

National

51,459 - 45

rate of increase of  9.1%     Omicron is here.

Local

Norwich   West rate             285.5      Local   R  estimated 0.9 - 1.1

    

N&N Patients  (falling)

30-11-2021                                20 29-11-2021 23 28-11-2021 24 27-11-2021 26

Vax     

1st Dose      21,995              88.9% done                               Norwich numbers   77.6% 

2nd Dose     27,166              81% done                                                                  70.9%

Booster     290,165     total          20,580,644                35.8%

In Hospital  

03-12-2021	7,268
02-12-2021	7,383
01-12-2021	7,327
30-11-2021	7,658
29-11-2021	7,652
28-11-2021	7,426

[ricardo 4,463]

43 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Haven’t read the article but it’s not just about scientists. The government has underfunded the nhs for decades and then seemed surprised when it didn’t have enough beds, masks or protective equipment. As we’ve been saying, hospitals are almost overwhelmed virtually every year, the waiting lists were a joke before covid etc etc. That’s not just because we haven’t got an army of scientists waiting for a pandemic, it’s because the funding has been a shambles for ages.

As to the last question, why would we not? If you could guarantee hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed, you surely wouldn’t care less how many cases there are - same way we don’t care how much common cold there is.

Hospitalisation and deaths still decreasing.

If Omicron is indeed less dangerous then rising cases may be irrelevant.

Time will tell.

[Indy 1,975]

22 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Hospitalisation and deaths still decreasing.

If Omicron is indeed less dangerous then rising cases may be irrelevant.

Time will tell.

If it’s as mild as first indications this could be the strain which dominates with no real illness which is what was forecast in the mutations. Indeed Time will tell.

Edited December 6, 2021 by Indy