Corona Virus main thread

[Upo 91]

SA has extremely high level of population immunity due to "everybody" having had covid or vaxxed. Only 30% fully vaxxed, mostly older adults.

Children are not vaxxed and are getting disproportionately hospitalized.:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-29/young-kids-make-up-10-of-hospital-cases-in-omicron-epicenter

Despite population immunity, total cases and hospitalizations are exploding:

https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/covid-19-hospitalizations-rising-south-africas-omicron-hot-spot-rcna6922

Gauteng Province wastewater viral load:

If these reports are accurate, and this is striking unvaxxed children hard, prepare for mother of all lockdowns. You have seen absolutely nothing yet. Stock up on FFP3 masks and supplies so you can survive a month at home.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Upo

[Yellow Fever 3,732]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

No doubt that we should be introducing more restrictions, we have to be cautious until we know more, but I share your concern at some of the extreme predictions about infectiousness and virulence that some seem to enjoy, drawing upon apparent analogies with the Black Death !!  Yes it could be really bad, I think most people get that, but with a topic such as this I think we should be calling out posters who are deliberately trying to frighten people.

Posters seem to generally fall into two groups  - 

Happy go lucky  - generally trying to down play the virus, restrictions and always looking for reasons however obtuse why it isn't so serious.

Cautious - Those that see the potential downsides and wish to take early preventive action - better safe than sorry.

In my own life I'm actually happy go lucky - but from a public perspective and policy cautious. I would be mortified if I was responsible by carelessness (or worse) for bringing Covid into a care home or a hospital.

Countries seem to fall into the same categories - Israel, Japan etc 'cautious' and largely successful . UK, USA - Happy go lucky. 

Are you feeling lucky ?

I should add that the change of boosters from 6 months to 3 (given previous cold water on accelerating) does shout to a large concern in JCVI and wider about this variant.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Barbe bleu 809]

17 minutes ago, Upo said:

If these reports are accurate, and this is striking unvaxxed children hard, prepare for mother of all lockdowns. You have seen absolutely nothing yet. Stock up on FFP3 masks and supplies so you can survive a month at home.

Upo,  after the earthquakes and volcanoes, and the stars falling to earth and after the great pestilence and the hellfire that you talked about before will a great beast with seven heads and ten horns rise out of the sea? 

Only I dont really like fish and would rather not face the the end of the world bring eaten by one.

[sonyc 5,481]

I'm quite astonished actually at the response of our government this time. Has it had a complete change in personality? Another press conference tonight (Johnson) and ministers saying we should overreact not just let things play out. That they hope Christmas will be be "on track". For a government that has played quite loose (let's face it, the tone has been less serious than in Scotland or Wales) for quite some months it is an odd thing to witness.

Why? Is Omicron such a worry? They are pushing vaccination so hard now and applying the kind of messaging pressure they might have done much earlier. 

Or maybe the message doesn't really matter? That people have had enough, are less compliant...which is visible just by seeing for oneself how many people wear masks or distance in shops etc (very little). On Brexit too, people haven't greatly changed their minds. Those that wanted out still feel much the same despite the economic fall out and projections. So, I'm not convinced we are going to see much change in behaviour. The lead from government on both Brexit and Covid has been on the side of laissez faire hasn't it? On the former, so much so that our relationship with France for example, they are happy to trash. On Covid, not even wearing masks in parliament until very recently. The leadership (as such) or maybe the approach has been clear to see.

So why now are they doubling down and being so concerned? As stated I'm really surprised. We haven't seen enough data yet have we to know the degree of impact on health systems. Perhaps there is a seasonal concern given the usual pressures on the NHS at winter? And we've read many stories of staff shortages and burnout.

Very curious. Maybe they are really starting to learn from their past management?

 

[Barbe bleu 809]

14 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I'm quite astonished actually at the response of our government this time. Has it had a complete change in personality? Another press conference tonight (Johnson) and ministers saying we should overreact not just let things play out. That they hope Christmas will be be "on track". For a government that has played quite loose (let's face it, the tone has been less serious than in Scotland or Wales) for quite some months it is an odd thing to witness.

Why? Is Omicron such a worry? They are pushing vaccination so hard now and applying the kind of messaging pressure they might have done much earlier. 

Very curious. Maybe they are really starting to learn from their past management?

 

No one knows for sure what omnicron will bring so I think a ramp up in messaging was required as a reasonable precaution, doubly so given we are at the start of 'the season'. 

But a couple.of months ago we didn't have omnicron and it wasn't season so I am not sure what a stronger message would have really achieved.

[sonyc 5,481]

17 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

No one knows for sure what omnicron will bring so I think a ramp up in messaging was required as a reasonable precaution, doubly so given we are at the start of 'the season'. 

But a couple.of months ago we didn't have omnicron and it wasn't season so I am not sure what a stronger message would have really achieved.

Agree on reasonable precautions. Yet I don't think the messaging overall has been strong throughout. Just seems a little ramped up now. I'm wondering whether it really matters though.

Perhaps too cynical of me if I reflect more....but maybe it's with one eye on a future election....that they need not to lose the narrative on the vaccination success that they've pushed. I don't know of course. Just some interesting signs. I might be looking for something that's not there. Or, something very serious is afoot which is modelled. 

Edit: difficult to see the wood for the trees in the way the media is all over this!

Edited November 30, 2021 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

49 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Posters seem to generally fall into two groups  - 

Happy go lucky  - generally trying to down play the virus, restrictions and always looking for reasons however obtuse why it isn't so serious.

Cautious - Those that see the potential downsides and wish to take early preventive action - better safe than sorry.

In my own life I'm actually happy go lucky - but from a public perspective and policy cautious. I would be mortified if I was responsible by carelessness (or worse) for bringing Covid into a care home or a hospital.

Countries seem to fall into the same categories - Israel, Japan etc 'cautious' and largely successful . UK, USA - Happy go lucky. 

Are you feeling lucky ?

I should add that the change of boosters from 6 months to 3 (given previous cold water on accelerating) does shout to a large concern in JCVI and wider about this variant.

You have missed out the third group, those who gleefully post predictions of doom and destruction.

Of course we should all be very concerned and cautious, I certainly am, faced with the current understanding that we have it would be foolish to be otherwise.

[Van wink 2,994]

9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Agree on reasonable precautions. Yet I don't think the messaging overall has been strong throughout. Just seems a little ramped up now. I'm wondering whether it really matters though.

Perhaps too cynical of me if I reflect more....but maybe it's with one eye on a future election....that they need not to lose the narrative on the vaccination success that they've pushed. I don't know of course. Just some interesting signs. I might be looking for something that's not there.

I share some of your cynicism, maybe Javid is having some influence but fundamentally there is cause for concern and the level of response is appropriate atm

Edited November 30, 2021 by Van wink

[sonyc 5,481]

15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I share some of your cynicism, maybe Javid is having some influence but fundamentally there is cause for concern and the level of response is appropriate.

Never complained it wasn't appropriate VW. Have always supported very strong messaging... because....it's a pandemic and if you are not strong and clear in such a time then it's a poor show! So much has been played down (in my view) compared to say Wales. As you know I think I watch a lot more SC4 as I'm trying to learn the language. It's amazing how grown up (right term?) and serious the government is (constant adverts) .....yet, their stats are not better (as Ricardo would tell us) than England.

Hence my question or comment - perhaps it doesn't matter! Perhaps the government knows the population and behaviours.

I suppose I've wanted to see more lead in messaging which then influences better behaviours in society. It's a bit like schools and having a decent education. I've always felt a government is there to do that job. Of course if you're a free market Tory then the mantra is personal freedom. I've not heard so much free market liberalist talk in any government I've lived under (am in my 60s). I'm more for steady and responsible state involvement.

As stated, it's very interesting to see and consider the impact of ideology.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by sonyc

[dj11 377]

How I long for the next freedom day. 

[Yellow Fever 3,732]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

You have missed out the third group, those who gleefully post predictions of doom and destruction.

Of course we should all be very concerned and cautious, I certainly am, faced with the current understanding that we have it would be foolish to be otherwise.

I'd avoided the extremes both ends - anti-vaxers / conspiracy theories and doomsday merchants.

However - to be sure the East Asian countries have generally done much better by the the very real doomsday scare that SARs (a close cousin to Covid) gave them a decade back. 10% mortality that would of been a very real doomsday if it had been more infectious.

Only a week or two (pre Omicron) ago I was discussing on here against some that couldn't see any point in mild restrictions such as masks, social distancing etc. to 'buy time' for improved vaccines, treatments and the like and that we always play for time in the absence of an existing fix. Well surprise surprise we are now all playing for time. I trust they'll happily go to the back of the queue for any further new hurried pharmaceutical intervention.

Given what I can see at present our best hope (and hope it is) is that the new variant is indeed much milder than Delta which it appears to outcompete given the limited data we have at present. As to vaccine efficacy I see the Moderna boss has spooked everybody -

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/nov/30/moderna-boss-predicts-current-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-against-omicron.

We should exercise cautions at present without panic until we clearly know more - and hopefully quickly although many an alarm bell seems to be ringing.

 

[KernowCanary 214]

I am for one absolutely astonished that there are people in this thread dismissing the positive comments from the South African scientist that it’s mild symptoms she is seeing in others, just so they can listen and believe all the negative stuff being mentioned although it hasn’t been reviewed as official.

I’m not surprised there are people in this thread being about five who would love the idea of being stuck in lockdowns forever all while nobody complains and accepts it all with a chiched response of “it is what it is!”. Of course, Twitter is worse and nothing but a glorified echo chamber of people who all think the same negative and twisted ways.

It seems to me this thread is the same; likeminded people like me keeping out of it only to leave mostly those who are enjoying all this and want another lockdown. I bet the MSM and their annoying buzzwords will say “Omicron Lockdown”.

As Deborah Meaden often says “I’m out” (and that’s out this thread for good and that’s final). I’d expect for example 10 year old kids who don’t know any better to enjoy this, not grown ups.

Jesus wept.

Edited November 30, 2021 by KernowCanary

[Tetteys Jig 830]

in that case @Yellow Fever, would you say we are not going far enough? What would you do if you were in charge? Cancel mass gatherings? Mandate vaccines? Return to full lockdown?

Do you think that travel restrictions and masks in shops and public transport will be enough? Did you want these prior to the emergence of Omicron?

[sonyc 5,481]

3 hours ago, KernowCanary said:

I am for one absolutely astonished that there are people in this thread dismissing the positive comments from the South African scientist that it’s mild symptoms she is seeing in others, just so they can listen and believe all the negative stuff being mentioned although it hasn’t been reviewed as official.

I’m not surprised there are people in this thread being about five who would love the idea of being stuck in lockdowns forever all while nobody complains and accepts it all with a chiched response of “it is what it is!”. Of course, Twitter is worse and nothing but a glorified echo chamber of people who all think the same negative and twisted ways.

It seems to me this thread is the same; likeminded people like me keeping out of it only to leave mostly those who are enjoying all this and want another lockdown. I bet the MSM and their annoying buzzwords will say “Omicron Lockdown”.

As Deborah Meaden often says “I’m out” (and that’s out this thread for good and that’s final). I’d expect for example 10 year old kids who don’t know any better to enjoy this, not grown ups.

Jesus wept.

Well I've changed my opinion for one Kernow. I used to think a 'firebreak' was a logical way of stopping the spread. It appears the virus is everywhere and simply awaits unlocking. Further, I believe that the effect of lockdowns on well-being and the economy is worse (of course related).

Just keep finding things each day that make you happy - like your music. That's the best we can do. Actually I think we find more value in those daily things (and relationships). Covid has brought all the things we've perhaps taken a little for granted much closer. Just seeing someone now I had not seen for a few weeks or months feels that little bit more precious somehow. So, not all bad when you really think about it. 

Edit...oh, and stay away from too many echo chambers. They draw you in to a weird world sometimes!

Edited November 30, 2021 by sonyc
Precious NOT Previous

[Yellow Fever 3,732]

43 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

in that case @Yellow Fever, would you say we are not going far enough? What would you do if you were in charge? Cancel mass gatherings? Mandate vaccines? Return to full lockdown?

Do you think that travel restrictions and masks in shops and public transport will be enough? Did you want these prior to the emergence of Omicron?

At the time TJ I think and still do we should have had these same minor mask restrictions we now have as we go into winter with Delta to keep it under control or under downward pressure - same as other 'sensible' countries that some like to laud. Israel etc. It was and remains an accident waiting to happen.

As to Omicron - (and I note its high summer in SA vs 'seasonal' effects) - if it shows any signs of spreading quickly here then yes we will need toughen up very quickly (this week) UNTIL we can show its mild or of little concern. That may indeed mean temporarily closing some venues or suspending flights.

Mandatory vaccines - eventually we may need too. That's called society (we all trade some 'sovereignty' for greater benefits - i.e. law and order) else we may need leper colonies (an easily treatable disease).

[Tetteys Jig 830]

18 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

At the time TJ I think and still do we should have had these same minor mask restrictions we now have as we go into winter with Delta to keep it under control or under downward pressure - same as other 'sensible' countries that some like to laud. Israel etc. It was and remains an accident waiting to happen.

As to Omicron - (and I note its high summer in SA vs 'seasonal' effects) - if it shows any signs of spreading quickly here then yes we will need toughen up very quickly (this week) UNTIL we can show its mild or of little concern. That may indeed mean temporarily closing some venues or suspending flights.

Mandatory vaccines - eventually we may need too. That's called society (we all trade some 'sovereignty' for greater benefits - i.e. law and order) else we may need leper colonies (an easily treatable disease).

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greece-make-vaccinations-persons-over-60-mandatory-pm-2021-11-30/?utm_source=reddit.com interesting one from Greece... discriminating by age since its this age group most likely to suffer the worst affects.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, KernowCanary said:

I am for one absolutely astonished that there are people in this thread dismissing the positive comments from the South African scientist that it’s mild symptoms she is seeing in others, just so they can listen and believe all the negative stuff being mentioned although it hasn’t been reviewed as official.

I’m not surprised there are people in this thread being about five who would love the idea of being stuck in lockdowns forever all while nobody complains and accepts it all with a chiched response of “it is what it is!”. Of course, Twitter is worse and nothing but a glorified echo chamber of people who all think the same negative and twisted ways.

It seems to me this thread is the same; likeminded people like me keeping out of it only to leave mostly those who are enjoying all this and want another lockdown. I bet the MSM and their annoying buzzwords will say “Omicron Lockdown”.

As Deborah Meaden often says “I’m out” (and that’s out this thread for good and that’s final). I’d expect for example 10 year old kids who don’t know any better to enjoy this, not grown ups.

Jesus wept.

I think he may have wept with laughter at that post.

[Aggy 747]

14 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I think he may have wept with laughter at that post.

What did you say recently about toning down the arrogance? Or does that only apply to people who don’t agree with you?

[Aggy 747]

4 hours ago, sonyc said:

Never complained it wasn't appropriate VW. Have always supported very strong messaging... because....it's a pandemic and if you are not strong and clear in such a time then it's a poor show! So much has been played down (in my view) compared to say Wales. As you know I think I watch a lot more SC4 as I'm trying to learn the language. It's amazing how grown up (right term?) and serious the government is (constant adverts) .....yet, their stats are not better (as Ricardo would tell us) than England.

Hence my question or comment - perhaps it doesn't matter! Perhaps the government knows the population and behaviours.

I suppose I've wanted to see more lead in messaging which then influences better behaviours in society. It's a bit like schools and having a decent education. I've always felt a government is there to do that job. Of course if you're a free market Tory then the mantra is personal freedom. I've not heard so much free market liberalist talk in any government I've lived under (am in my 60s). I'm more for steady and responsible state involvement.

As stated, it's very interesting to see and consider the impact of ideology.

 

 

Hint at Christmas lockdowns and then when they don’t come the government has saved the day.

Cynical perhaps but we’ve known about the need to get vaccines and boosters for ages and the messaging and “threats” to the old people refusing to get vaccinated hasn’t been strong enough. It’s almost as if the government is thrilled this new variant has come out so they’ve got an ‘excuse’ to change the messaging without admitting their earlier messaging was too weak.

They can ramp up the messaging as a result of this new variant (not because they should have done it months ago), if we avoid lockdown they’ve saved the day and if we don’t avoid lockdown then it’s only because of the new variant and not their weak messaging for months.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

11 minutes ago, Aggy said:

What did you say recently about toning down the arrogance? Or does that only apply to people who don’t agree with you?

Here we go again. Waiting to jump on one of my posts.

The post I replied to with a bit of humour contains derisory remarks about posters who may have a more concerned approach about the future. I haven't seen or read anything but genuine concern about a subject that has caused millions of excess deaths. Nobody has advocated lockdown. To say that people enjoyed the last lockdowns is not justified.

Those who believe that the emergence of another variant is not so serious are quite welcome to that judgement. It may well be the correct point of view. But there was no reason to put Jesus wept on that post.

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by keelansgrandad

[Aggy 747]

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greece-make-vaccinations-persons-over-60-mandatory-pm-2021-11-30/?utm_source=reddit.com interesting one from Greece... discriminating by age since its this age group most likely to suffer the worst affects.

What’s the point though? Other than cost saving, if it’s going to be mandatory then it may as well be for everyone?

[Aggy 747]

5 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Here we go again. Waiting to jump on one of my posts.

The post I replied to with a bit of humour contains derisory remarks about posters who may have a more concerned approach about the future. I haven't seen or read anything but genuine concern about a subject that has caused millions of excess deaths. Nobody has advocated lockdown. To say that people enjoyed the last lockdowns is not justified.

Those who believe that the emergence of another variant is not so serious are quite welcome to that judgement. It may well be the correct point of view. But there was no reason to put Jesus wept on that post.

 

I’m not sure about waiting to jump on them. You accused me of bullying for basically questioning your opinion, accused me of arrogance.

Then you’ve come out and responded like that to a poster who - as far as I can tell - hasn’t been offensive to anyone at any point in the thread.

If you’re going to get this upset every time someone gives you some back, maybe don’t give it out?

 

ps given that Kernow’s post didn’t mention any names, interesting that you seem to have taken that so personally as well.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Aggy

[Indy 3,283]

2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Here we go again. Waiting to jump on one of my posts.

The post I replied to with a bit of humour contains derisory remarks about posters who may have a more concerned approach about the future. I haven't seen or read anything but genuine concern about a subject that has caused millions of excess deaths. Nobody has advocated lockdown. To say that people enjoyed the last lockdowns is not justified.

Those who believe that the emergence of another variant is not so serious are quite welcome to that judgement. It may well be the correct point of view. But there was no reason to put Jesus wept on that post.

 

I think reading his previous posts, he might be struggling a little with how depressing these Covid months have been. I’d cut him some slack as if he’s struggling with it then we should be supportive and not pander to wild speculation as some revel in before we know the real effects of this strain.

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Indy

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I’m not sure about waiting to jump on them. You accused me of bullying for basically questioning your opinion, accused me of arrogance.

Then you’ve come out and responded like that to a poster who - as far as I can tell - hasn’t been offensive to anyone at any point in the thread.

If you’re going to get this upset every time someone gives you some back, maybe don’t give it out?

 

ps given that Kernow’s post didn’t mention any names, interesting that you seem to have taken that so personally as well.

I'm very far from upset. I don't know any of you so would hardly get upset about a few posts. Personal ones aside.

You don't think that putting Jesus wept at the end of the post doesn't signify exasperation? The kind of exasperation that is unfair towards some very calm and inoffensive posters.

It isn't personal at all. I don't necessarily subscribe to too many theories about the future. Just like today in Tesco when I asked a young couple dressed in athletic clothing but not wearing a face covering if they were exempt. They said yes so I took them at their word and said thank you and carried on. In other words we have to accept this all at face value and in good faith. But if I am told to wear a mask I will follow the advice. But for most of us, as I have said countless times, you believe what you choose to believe. As we have to count the cost personally, such as losing a business, then it is probably wiser to err on the side of the cautious advice.

[Aggy 747]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I'm very far from upset. I don't know any of you so would hardly get upset about a few posts. Personal ones aside.

You don't think that putting Jesus wept at the end of the post doesn't signify exasperation? The kind of exasperation that is unfair towards some very calm and inoffensive posters.

It isn't personal at all. I don't necessarily subscribe to too many theories about the future. Just like today in Tesco when I asked a young couple dressed in athletic clothing but not wearing a face covering if they were exempt. They said yes so I took them at their word and said thank you and carried on. In other words we have to accept this all at face value and in good faith. But if I am told to wear a mask I will follow the advice. But for most of us, as I have said countless times, you believe what you choose to believe. As we have to count the cost personally, such as losing a business, then it is probably wiser to err on the side of the cautious advice.

Kernows post didn’t mention anybody and set out his own frustrations. You felt the need to respond like that, basically openly mocking him for his (inoffensive) opinion “humorous” or not. He’s posted a couple of times about how worked up he is and you don’t see any problem with your response.

I get it - you can talk to people how you want and also get to throw your toys out the pram if (a) anyone talks to you in the same way or (b) calls you out for it. 

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

21 minutes ago, Aggy said:

What’s the point though? Other than cost saving, if it’s going to be mandatory then it may as well be for everyone?

presumably the thinking is because its those over 60s that are filling up hospitals and dying. Focus measures where the problem lies. Hence why up to now we have had basically no restrictions for over 5 months in UK and hospitals haven't been overwhelmed nor has the death rate gone above 200 per day. Compare this to Germany where 3 million over 60s remain unvaccinated and they are having to resort to NPIs to try save their healthcare system.

[Aggy 747]

15 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

presumably the thinking is because its those over 60s that are filling up hospitals and dying. Focus measures where the problem lies. Hence why up to now we have had basically no restrictions for over 5 months in UK and hospitals haven't been overwhelmed nor has the death rate gone above 200 per day. Compare this to Germany where 3 million over 60s remain unvaccinated and they are having to resort to NPIs to try save their healthcare system.

I get that, and it’s difficult, but given there isn’t really any downside to having the vaccine I’m not keen on splitting age groups. I just don’t like the idea of making things mandatory on arbitrary grounds. Why 60 and not 59 or 62? Why based solely on age and not factoring in that some people under 60 might need hospitalisation while some over 60 might not?

Its a wider point for me, and I just think slippery slope every time I see things like this. What I couldn’t tell from the article was whether this was voted on. It sounds from the article (although doesn’t expressly state) as if this has been imposed by the government rather than via a vote in Parliament? If that’s the case, even more slippery slope IMO. 

[ricardo 7,328]

Difficult to argue that ZOE has not peaked.

We will certainly begin to see lower numbers this week.

What Omicron does to numbers further in the future  is up for speculation.

Apparantly us vulnerables who had three jabs as a main course will now get a fourth as a booster. My arm is feeling like a dartboard.😉

Edited November 30, 2021 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,328]

Note.

There is a delay in releasing Covid Dashboard numbers until at least 6pm today.

Conspiracy Theorists may now speculate as to the reason.😀 (rubber keys may have fallen out of the ZX Spectrum)

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

42 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Kernows post didn’t mention anybody and set out his own frustrations. You felt the need to respond like that, basically openly mocking him for his (inoffensive) opinion “humorous” or not. He’s posted a couple of times about how worked up he is and you don’t see any problem with your response.

I get it - you can talk to people how you want and also get to throw your toys out the pram if (a) anyone talks to you in the same way or (b) calls you out for it. 

 

If that is your opinion then so be it. I can assure you I meant no harm to KC. I haven't read the posts in which you seem to signify he is worked up.

I found his post derisory. You found mine that way. We are miles apart on this one. Familiar territory with us two I'm afraid.