Corona Virus main thread

[Herman 9,710]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Nobody is going to wear masks in an outside environment, its a pointless comfort blanket. Shops and indoor areas fair enough, I'm happy to comply out of courtesy to others but lets be honest here, the efficacy of masks is so marginal as to make virtually no difference.

Wearing a mask is like trying to keep a fart in your trousers

Are you a fan of Piers Corbyn now?😀

[ricardo 7,339]

Just now, Barbe bleu said:

 

 

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Upo, and Hell followed with him.” (Revelation 6:8)

 

with KG riding sidesaddle on Sancho Panza's donkey

 

 

[ricardo 7,339]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Are you a fan of Piers Corbyn now?😀

He's a much better weather forecaster😉🌦️

[1902 1,167]

9 minutes ago, Upo said:

To your points

1st: There is no reason why a virus can't be both evasive and more transmissible. There was a popular hypothesis that stated that such a trade-off exists for corona, and it is one reason why there was speculation about delta being a dead-end for viral fitness. And here we are.

2nd: There is a lot of air between not escaping immunity and escaping immunity completely. You can have quite a bit of immunity to virus in terms of immune response and it can still be deadly.

3rd: Virus doesn't have to become more virulent or contagious to basically ruin everything forever. It just needs to keep ahead of population immunity and countermeasures. No sign corona is anywhere near maxed out in viral fitness.

There is absolutely no reason a virus would have to become less deadly to survive. Fatality rate could be irrelevant to its transmissibility or it could be an acceptable tradeoff for the virus.

Remember SARS1 had IFR 10%, which is 10x delta's. For MERS it was 30%. What separates SARS2 from MERS and SARS1 is that it transmits readily from people without symptoms and does it very efficiently. In principle, SARS2 could become 100% fatal and do just fine until every human is dead. All it needs to do is a) infect a lot of people, very fast, and with some delay between host becoming infectious and onset of identifiable symptoms or b) find another host species to jump in and out from as it burns through emerging human populations. That's what is keeping ebola and rabies lurking about.

1) that's a hypothesis that still exists, but we are at the start of its existence as a virus as a human pathogen so it's not surprising that it is not anywhere near the point where it is close to it's genetic potential yet.

2) no on is denying that, but it's unlikely that covid will mutate into something that our immune systems do not deaden the impact of. It will still kill, but that's true of influenza, most humans have partial immunity though and that's why it doesn't rip through us.

3) "All it has to do", an airborne pneumatic pathogen that can overwhelm our immune response, is highly transmissible and delays symptoms long enough for people to die in droves against a background of vaccinations which we know confer some immunity is presumably possivle.

It's just highly unlikely because Coroniviruses have limits to their genetic potential and that would need millions of stars to align with our response remaining static.

At that point I will focus on the impending meteor strike.

[Indy 3,283]

3 minutes ago, 1902 said:

1) that's a hypothesis that still exists, but we are at the start of its existence as a virus as a human pathogen so it's not surprising that it is not anywhere near the point where it is close to it's genetic potential yet.

2) no on is denying that, but it's unlikely that covid will mutate into something that our immune systems do not deaden the impact of. It will still kill, but that's true of influenza, most humans have partial immunity though and that's why it doesn't rip through us.

3) "All it has to do", an airborne pneumatic pathogen that can overwhelm our immune response, is highly transmissible and delays symptoms long enough for people to die in droves against a background of vaccinations which we know confer some immunity is presumably possivle.

It's just highly unlikely because Coroniviruses have limits to their genetic potential and that would need millions of stars to align with our response remaining static.

At that point I will focus on the impending meteor strike.

More people will from climate change issues in the next 50 years than will from Covid! Yet we’re so focused on covid, but bury our heads in the sand with climate change issues! 
Anyhow Yellowstone super volcano is well overdue!

[ricardo 7,339]

11 minutes ago, Indy said:

Anyhow Yellowstone super volcano is well overdue!

A thousand time less likely than being struck by lightning so exscuse me if I don't worry about it.

[Indy 3,283]

Just now, ricardo said:

A thousand time less likely than being struck by lightning so exscuse me if I don't worry about it.

Argh but it’s only statistics, if you don’t worry about it, doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen! There’s been a spate of earthquakes recently! Is the big one coming……..🤔

https://www.livescience.com/yellowstone-earthquake-swarm-july-2021

Like uncle Albert said if you have something else to worry about your Covid worries will go to the back of your mind……posted this for Upo!😉

[ricardo 7,339]

3 minutes ago, Indy said:

Argh but it’s only statistics, if you don’t worry about it, doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen! There’s been a spate of earthquakes recently! Is the big one coming……..🤔

https://www.livescience.com/yellowstone-earthquake-swarm-july-2021

Like uncle Albert said if you have something else to worry about your Covid worries will go to the back of your mind……posted this for Upo!😉

Theres always a big one coming😉. I'm going to invent an anti earthquake mask.

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

6 minutes ago, 1902 said:

1) that's a hypothesis that still exists, but we are at the start of its existence as a virus as a human pathogen so it's not surprising that it is not anywhere near the point where it is close to it's genetic potential yet.

2) no on is denying that, but it's unlikely that covid will mutate into something that our immune systems do not deaden the impact of. It will still kill, but that's true of influenza, most humans have partial immunity though and that's why it doesn't rip through us.

3) "All it has to do", an airborne pneumatic pathogen that can overwhelm our immune response, is highly transmissible and delays symptoms long enough for people to die in droves against a background of vaccinations which we know confer some immunity is presumably possivle.

It's just highly unlikely because Coroniviruses have limits to their genetic potential and that would need millions of stars to align with our response remaining static.

At that point I will focus on the impending meteor strike.

There is a lot wrong with your initial hypothesis a post or two back that a virus needs to get more complicated to keep ahead of the immune system - and then an appeal to entropy arguments for a law of diminishing returns. It just needs to swap (mutate) a few proteins hence change shape. Viruses can be RNA, DNA etc. simple or complicated. RNA (simpler) can 'evolve' (mutate) quicker if I recall! 

The real issue for evolutionary pressure vs mortality is how the virus can spread  - ideally from its perspective asymptomatically and quickly - before the sad host realizes it's ill and crawls away (self isolates as most creatures do - probably a deep seated instinct) to die. There are indeed several parasitic creatures which follow a similar strategy i.e. parasitic wasps that eat their host alive! Once its reproduced in the billions the host is really redundant.

Ebola for instance is deadly but people run a mile from it so its more easily contained. If Ebola was 50/50 asymptomatic we'd be  in trouble!

Of course a virus that killed off an entire species is by its nature self limiting - but that doesn't mean some haven't come close! Even in our own genetic make up there are some thoughts that we had a bottleneck in the past and got down to about 12 'Eaves' - was a close run thing and pandemic is a likely cause!

Its not in the virus's interest to kill its host but it really doesn't care.

[Mark .Y. 351]

3 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Spoke to brother in law in Jalon yesterday and he said mask wearing had not been stopped there. Still compulsory.

Strange how things can be so different a couple of hundred miles apart KG.

I was at my place in Murcia in October and the only evidence of mask wearing was on public transport/airport and hospital.

Shops, bars, restaurants - virtually no masks. Just the odd person who I assumed was clinically vulnerable so was taking no chances. 

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

7 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Hey RTB. In reality things are always more complicated but as a general rule I think the below applies. Bit long and  huge simplification I am afraid...

For a virus to enter a cell and hijack the cellular machinery to replicate it must first bind onto the cell at a particular place  (in this case the ACE2 receptors we hear about).

It binds to the cell by having a surface shape that is the opposite of the cell surface ( think two pieces of a puzzle, or a key in a lock). The more perfect the fit, the more infectious the virus becomes so the virus will naturally mutate to fit better (individual viruses won't mutate,  we are talking the virus as a whole).

Antibodies work in several ways but one of the ways is by latching onto the virus and thus changing its shape. If the fit becomes really poor as a result of have an antibody 'bump' the virus won't get in to the cell. The antibody/virus bind is the same, it requires a good fit, the better the fit the better the effect.  The body adapts antibodies to acheive a better fit.  

In the early days of an infection or after vaccination antibodies will only be able to fit vaguely, but in time the antibodies being produced will switch to  more specialist class with a more perfect fit (ie. Antibodies that work much better). The body will remember what works best and next time it sees the virus it can go straight to the well-honed response.

A virus that finds the perfect fit will eventually start to see bodies with a perfect response; To avoid these super antibodies it might have to change its surface shape but if it does so it lowers its ability  to bind onto the cell it requires...

If delta had a perfect fit to ACE2 it stands to reason that what comes after must be less perfect.  Sure it can evade the specialist defences better but that evasion comes at a cost to the virus (if cost is the right word).  But is delta the perfect fit version?

 

 

 

Thanks BB. It's a game of Tetris, basically.

[1902 1,167]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

There is a lot wrong with your initial hypothesis a post or two back that a virus needs to get more complicated to keep ahead of the immune system - and then an appeal to entropy arguments for a law of diminishing returns. It just needs to swap (mutate) a few proteins hence change shape. Viruses can be RNA, DNA etc. simple or complicated. RNA (simpler) can 'evolve' (mutate) quicker if I recall! 

The real issue for evolutionary pressure vs mortality is how the virus can spread  - ideally from its perspective asymptomatically and quickly - before the sad host realizes it's ill and crawls away (self isolates as most creatures do - probably a deep seated instinct) to die. There are indeed several parasitic creatures which follow a similar strategy i.e. parasitic wasps that eat their host alive! Once its reproduced in the billions the host is really redundant.

Ebola for instance is deadly but people run a mile from it so its more easily contained. If Ebola was 50/50 asymptomatic we'd be  in trouble!

Of course a virus that killed off an entire species is by its nature self limiting - but that doesn't mean some haven't come close! Even in our own genetic make up there are some thoughts that we had a bottleneck in the past and got down to about 12 'Eaves' - was a close run thing and pandemic is a likely cause!

Its not in the virus's interest to kill its host but it really doesn't care.

I took my first argument from an article in Nature in an act of blatant plagiarism!

However as I said, I'm not an expert so I can only repeat what I read. Therefore all back out gracefully to those of you who are better versed.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Its not in the virus's interest to kill its host but it really doesn't care.

And it's not a good strategy, its those with a successful strategy that win.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Theres always a big one coming😉. I'm going to invent an anti earthquake mask.

I always found a hammock to be the best thing when the earth moved. Could never quite get it to fit!!

Edited November 29, 2021 by Van wink

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Day on day cases have already started to fall but in a couple of weeks time the same people will be telling us its masks what done it.

But who do you listen to? Who you believe the most of course. I listen to who I choose to listen to most. And do I really think putting a mask on in a store or public transport is a hardship? Of course not. Its pathetic that no-one wants to comply. But that is the hypocrisy of the menu of life when we all select what we want. It is not possible for one opinion to say that is the correct one at the moment.

Basically its just doing as you are told which seems to be a real problem for so many.

I am not concerned about the virus. I am confident that I have enough protection with three jabs, the normal flu one and following all the still recommended guidelines including regular handwashing, using gels and wearing a mask. But surely that was all good advice, even from this pathetic Government.

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

But who do you listen to? Who you believe the most of course. I listen to who I choose to listen to most. And do I really think putting a mask on in a store or public transport is a hardship? Of course not. Its pathetic that no-one wants to comply. But that is the hypocrisy of the menu of life when we all select what we want. It is not possible for one opinion to say that is the correct one at the moment.

Basically its just doing as you are told which seems to be a real problem for so many.

I am not concerned about the virus. I am confident that I have enough protection with three jabs, the normal flu one and following all the still recommended guidelines including regular handwashing, using gels and wearing a mask. But surely that was all good advice, even from this pathetic Government.

 

 

There is a clear and obvious ( see VAR ) advantage to wearing face coverings KG, the quantification of the benefit is a matter for debate of course but to resist such a simple public health measure would be foolhardy imo.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

Strange how things can be so different a couple of hundred miles apart KG.

I was at my place in Murcia in October and the only evidence of mask wearing was on public transport/airport and hospital.

Shops, bars, restaurants - virtually no masks. Just the odd person who I assumed was clinically vulnerable so was taking no chances. 

Yes Mark. Valencia province was one of the lowest for cases in Spain. Is that because they enforced restrictions? One group will say yes and another will say it was coincidence. And the restrictions stay.

Just been chatting with the inlaws in NZ. Auckland and many other centres are loosening restrictions so that restaurants can open. However, as it is approaching summer holiday time there, some areas are banning visitors to their areas because much of the population in those areas are not vaccinated.

So we can see the variation in restrictions in just two areas. NZ is doing what it seems is right and some would see as unnecessary whereas others are moaning about mask wearing.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

with KG riding sidesaddle on Sancho Panza's donkey

 

 

I haven't got your couch to hide behind

[Upo 91]

5 hours ago, ricardo said:

Nobody is going to wear masks in an outside environment, its a pointless comfort blanket. Shops and indoor areas fair enough, I'm happy to comply out of courtesy to others but lets be honest here, the efficacy of masks is so marginal as to make virtually no difference.

Wearing a mask is like trying to keep a fart in your trousers

Masks work. This has been known since mid-2020.

https://www.thelancet.com/infographics/coronavirus/COVID-prevention

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

2021

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(20)30293-4/fulltext

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(21)00003-0/fulltext

 

Of course, mask use is almost certainly stupefyingly more effective than the strong evidence supporting mask use in these studies if the masks that were used  were high quality FFP2 masks which filter 95% of viral particles or FFP3 which filters 99% of viral particle vs 60-70% by surgical masks or negligible protection cloth masks offer for the wearer (more useful for protecting others).

 

[Upo 91]

3 hours ago, Indy said:

More people will from climate change issues in the next 50 years than will from Covid! Yet we’re so focused on covid, but bury our heads in the sand with climate change issues! 
Anyhow Yellowstone super volcano is well overdue!

Short term a pandemic that kills almost everybody is everything, but a mere speed bump over long term.

A giant impact even is irrelevant short term due to rarity of such an event, but long term it is basically the only thing that matters.

Supervolcano eruption and climate change are somewhere in between.

A giant solar flare that destroys our electric grid, microchips, data networks and microchip production capacity is a high probability event that might kill as many people as Covid and be a lot - a LOT -more expensive.

[Indy 3,283]

11 minutes ago, Upo said:

Short term a pandemic that kills almost everybody is everything, but a mere speed bump over long term.

A giant impact even is irrelevant short term due to rarity of such an event, but long term it is basically the only thing that matters.

Supervolcano eruption and climate change are somewhere in between.

A giant solar flare that destroys our electric grid, microchips, data networks and microchip production capacity is a high probability event that might kill as many people as Covid and be a lot - a LOT -more expensive.

What do you mean by pandemic that kills everybody? Covid isn’t it! Never will be! The only thing is Ebola if that ever took off the same as Covid or a man made virus, but that’s not happening! I’m lost to why you need to make such a big fuss! Really need to chill, we’re all going to die one day….enjoy life best you can……

I do agree with my Swedish cousin this is nature trying to reduce the virus that is humanity on its planet.

Edited November 29, 2021 by Indy

[Van wink 2,994]

6 hours ago, ricardo said:

Nobody is going to wear masks in an outside environment, its a pointless comfort blanket. Shops and indoor areas fair enough, I'm happy to comply out of courtesy to others but lets be honest here, the efficacy of masks is so marginal as to make virtually no difference.

Wearing a mask is like trying to keep a fart in your trousers

Only if you wear your underpants on your head

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

2 hours ago, 1902 said:

I took my first argument from an article in Nature in an act of blatant plagiarism!

However as I said, I'm not an expert so I can only repeat what I read. Therefore all back out gracefully to those of you who are better versed.

Do you have the link. I'm open to all arguments.

Just saw a Prof Bell on the box just saying much the same though - if I precis him - bit of a myth that viruses amereliroate quickly (perhaps over 1000s of generations).

Delta I believe is actually more severe than alpha etc.

[Indy 3,283]

The key is definitely the severity of this new strain, if it does turnout to be highly infectious but only causes mild symptoms then it’s the variant that they said would come, one which can infect its host without causing many health issues. This would be good news as it would become the dominant strain hopefully overtaking the more deadly Delta strain. So fingers crossed! 
Until we know exactly let’s look to the preliminary good news data rather than jumping the panic button as some appear to be!

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Only if you wear your underpants on your head

I'll lend him a proper mask

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

24 minutes ago, Indy said:

The key is definitely the severity of this new strain, if it does turnout to be highly infectious but only causes mild symptoms then it’s the variant that they said would come, one which can infect its host without causing many health issues. This would be good news as it would become the dominant strain hopefully overtaking the more deadly Delta strain. So fingers crossed! 
Until we know exactly let’s look to the preliminary good news data rather than jumping the panic button as some appear to be!

I haven't heard anyone panic. Its almost like a reverse woke attitude from some if you show any concern that we may have to go through restrictions again because the darn thing just won't go way.

Our family lost a business because of the virus. We live in area dependent on visitors. Forgive us if we are concerned that further disruption is a possibilty.

 

[Indy 3,283]

1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

I haven't heard anyone panic. Its almost like a reverse woke attitude from some if you show any concern that we may have to go through restrictions again because the darn thing just won't go way.

Our family lost a business because of the virus. We live in area dependent on visitors. Forgive us if we are concerned that further disruption is a possibilty.

 

KG you’re not alone, and there’s few on here who are…..so that’s my point, we don’t need further restrictions till we know where we are, bringing in the travel restriction, face masks and hygiene is very good and as far as I’m concerned should have stayed in place.

[Van wink 2,994]

9 hours ago, Indy said:

The key is definitely the severity of this new strain, if it does turnout to be highly infectious but only causes mild symptoms then it’s the variant that they said would come, one which can infect its host without causing many health issues. This would be good news as it would become the dominant strain hopefully overtaking the more deadly Delta strain. So fingers crossed! 
Until we know exactly let’s look to the preliminary good news data rather than jumping the panic button as some appear to be!

No doubt that we should be introducing more restrictions, we have to be cautious until we know more, but I share your concern at some of the extreme predictions about infectiousness and virulence that some seem to enjoy, drawing upon apparent analogies with the Black Death !!  Yes it could be really bad, I think most people get that, but with a topic such as this I think we should be calling out posters who are deliberately trying to frighten people.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Van wink

[Upo 91]

10 hours ago, Indy said:

What do you mean by pandemic that kills everybody? Covid isn’t it! Never will be! The only thing is Ebola if that ever took off the same as Covid or a man made virus, but that’s not happening! I’m lost to why you need to make such a big fuss! Really need to chill, we’re all going to die one day….enjoy life best you can……

I do agree with my Swedish cousin this is nature trying to reduce the virus that is humanity on its planet.

Covid is not going to kill everybody. Even ebola doesn't kill everybody. I was making a point that even if for any reason almost all of us would perish from disease, with 8 bn humans around, 0.01% - e.g. less than a million - would repopulate Earth in less than 1000 years. A giant meteor strike would kill as many, but there would be no functional ecosystems for humans to repopulate. We'd have to terraform Earth.

Everybody dies. I'd rather not die of a disease that is preventable with modest means. E.g. mandatory FFP2/3 masks, triple vaccinations, partial social distancing, quick tests at home, test&tracing, HEPA air filters, UV sterilization of surfaces, monitored quarantines, locally applied effective countermeasures, travel bans, banning mass infection events... We don't do these measures because our leaders think that it is better to achieve herd immunity via infection. But there is no herd immunity that can be achieved. The virus simply evolves.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Upo

[Mark .Y. 351]

12 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Yes Mark. Valencia province was one of the lowest for cases in Spain. Is that because they enforced restrictions? One group will say yes and another will say it was coincidence. And the restrictions stay.

Just been chatting with the inlaws in NZ. Auckland and many other centres are loosening restrictions so that restaurants can open. However, as it is approaching summer holiday time there, some areas are banning visitors to their areas because much of the population in those areas are not vaccinated.

So we can see the variation in restrictions in just two areas. NZ is doing what it seems is right and some would see as unnecessary whereas others are moaning about mask wearing.

 

Murcia has had pretty low cases too KG. I guess there is something in that both regions are slightly more rural than some others, and of course, the warmer weather probably helped too.

I did see last night that some areas of the Murcia region have been told that bar/restaurant capacity is not to exceed 30% of normal total so there must be something of a worry there.