Corona Virus main thread

[Barbe bleu 815]

19 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Unwarranted panic.

According to this guy Rt is 1.94, well below Delta.

 

What's Rt of delta in S Africa then?  I've not been paying attention to them but we'll over 2 doesn't seem right.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

16 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

What's Rt of delta in S Africa then?  I've not been paying attention to them but we'll over 2 doesn't seem right.

Agree BB. Is it out competing Delta? That's really all you need to know vs R.

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Well b back 3,190]

36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Unwarranted panic.

According to this guy Rt is 1.94, well below Delta.

 

That’s at odds with what most seem to be saying ( I attach a quote below ). As I understand it ( and always happy to be corrected ) a current R of 2 would mean if it carries on at the current rate it will be 10x more transmissible than Delta in a months time. Your R of 2 allows for vaccines holding up ( something they did against Delta ) and immunity after having it holding up, so unless he knows something the world don’t seem to know we will not have answers for a month, unless of course it completely runs riot. 
 

Dr Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser to the UK Health Security Agency, said the R value, or effective reproduction number, of the B.1.1.529 variant in the South African province of Gauteng, where it was first found, was now 2 – a level of transmission not recorded since the beginning of the pandemic, before restrictions began to be imposed. For an R of anything above 1, an epidemic will grow exponentially.

[Indy 3,283]

The other key is how aggressive this variant is, if it isn’t very aggressive and even those not vaccinated aren’t hospitalised or a killer then it’s not that much of a threat! Each time this mutates it needs to be fully evaluated before we hit the panic button!

[Van wink 2,994]

50 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Unwarranted panic.

According to this guy Rt is 1.94, well below Delta.

 

 

52 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Unwarranted panic.

According to this guy Rt is 1.94, well below Delta.

 

I wouldn't say concern is unwarranted, panic certainly is unwarranted quite simply because atm we dont have enough information. I would suggest that any sort of complacency with the knowledge the we have so far would be foolhardy.

[Well b back 3,190]

38 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

What's Rt of delta in S Africa then?  I've not been paying attention to them but we'll over 2 doesn't seem right.

 

22 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Agree BB. Is it out competing Delta? That's really all you need to know vs R.

 

Where it is is concerning, but still to early to be certain. The worrying thing is those vaccinated catching it ( but hopefully will hold up on hospitalisation ) but more worrying people who have recovered from Delta catching it ( hopefully these unconfirmed reports are not confirmed ). Here are some local figures that hopefully do not repeat across the world, but this is the reason governments have panicked and stock markets crashed. Without pre judgement make of it what you will.  @Van wink you will be interested in this early data as well. @Tetteys Jig will probably also be interested.
https://fortune.com/2021/11/26/new-covid-variant-south-africa-nu-mutations-delta-dominant-strain/

Edited November 26, 2021 by Well b back

[Essjayess 307]

4 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

down to nu (ų) aren't we now?

Not trying to downplay things as I genuinely don't know what this all means for things but wasn't this to be expected? We've been told we have to "live with the virus" since it will basically never go away for the foreseeable and we'll need regular jab updates just like we do every year for flu?

I'm glad we have gone cautious with the red list until we know more and hope we help the people that will be caught in limbo with this but eventually it will come here (if it's not already) and what will be will be.

From a fairly selfish point of view, I hope we can at least get the Christmas period out of the way before we have to do anything major about it. January is always **** anyway.

Yep confirmed...if the WHO officially give the new strain VOC status it will become the Nu Variant.

[Well b back 3,190]

3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Yep confirmed...if the WHO officially give the new strain VOC status it will become the Nu Variant.

Renamed I believe

Increased risk of reinfection with this variant - WHO

More now on the World Health Organization's announcement that the new Covid strain is a "variant of concern".

In a statement, the WHO says that the variant "has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning". 

Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other variants, it says.

The WHO has renamed the recently-discovered B.1.1.529 strain Omicron.

The variant was first reported to WHO from South Africa on Wednesday. It has also been identified in Botswana, Belgium, Hong Kong and Israel.

The WHO says it will take a few weeks to understand the impact of the new variant.

[ricardo 7,347]

8 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Yep confirmed...if the WHO officially give the new strain VOC status it will become the Nu Variant.

Its been named Omicron

Or if you live in France O Macron

[Well b back 3,190]

4 hours ago, KernowCanary said:

Sorry for the third post in a row, but I’ll leave with this…..

I’m not going to worry until it gets bad, I’m not going to worry about my holiday in April to Iceland next year, I’m going to continue with the preparations and booking of my tours, as well as booking my pre-departure lateral-flow test when I get paid on New Years Eve, as I’m saving my upcoming pay for a big night out on Christmas Eve. The BBC can stuff their “Big Night In”, if they do another one. That was so ****, I wanted a big night out and now it’s coming. To go to Iceland you need that test, so ifs or buts about it, so it will be kept out well. Icelanders also are well behaved such as washing hands and following guidance.

I will concentrate on all that worry if need be and cross that bridge when and if it comes.

No doubt the science boffins and Covid Correspondents on the TV news will be having a field day tonight, in their cushy well paid jobs with no worries about losing them.

Let’s just get out there, enjoy our lives and keep well away from all this media clickbait nonsense. As soon as the word “mutant”, “mutation” and “variant” crop up, it’s all presented as if that’s really bad, when in fact not all mutations are bad.

This graph will keep us reassured for now….

Not quite sure where that data came from, the data I just looked at shows cases increased from 300 to 3600 a day in last 7 days.

[KernowCanary 214]

16 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Not quite sure where that data came from, the data I just looked at shows cases increased from 300 to 3600 a day in last 7 days.

It’s a screenshot from Worldometer posted sometime earlier today on Twitter. Was searching under “Variant scaremongering” to see what people were saying about it and one person posted that graph in response to a tweet saying that the MSM, Sage and the WHO must be rubbing their hands together right now.

Robert Peston will be for sure loving all this, seeing how much he enjoys broadcasting his negative opinions and tweeting rubbish, while an annoying cartoon face of himself is used as his profile pic.

Edited November 26, 2021 by KernowCanary

[Van wink 2,994]

11 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

It’s a screenshot from Worldometer posted sometime earlier today on Twitter. Was searching under “Variant scaremongering” to see what people were saying about it and one person posted that graph in response to a tweet saying that the MSM, Sage and the WHO must be rubbing their hands together right now.

Robert Peston will be for sure loving all this, seeing how much he enjoys broadcasting his negative opinions and tweeting rubbish, while an annoying cartoon face of himself is used as his profile pic.

How does the graph help us with regional cases?

I hope your scepticism is well founded, for me as things stand this is worrying. vaccines recognise the spike proteins, if there are significant changes there then I'm sure you can work out the implications, it doesn't need Peston to tell us.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,347]

Most European countries are now over 100k cases a day on a UK pop basis. Germany certainly look like going over that line sooner rather than later. The question now is whether the higher vaxxed countries, France, Italy, Spain will manage to avoid this.

The present UK figures suggest a plateau has been reached and the question here is whether the next move will be up or down.

[ricardo 7,347]

The over 60's appear to be headed downwards in all regions. Vaccine effect?

 

[Herman 9,717]

 

[KernowCanary 214]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

How does the graph help us with regional cases?

I hope your scepticism is well founded, for me as things stand this is worrying. vaccines recognise the spike proteins, if there are significant changes there then I'm sure you can work out the implications, it doesn't need Peston to tell us.

This horrible “mutation” came from South Africa hence the reason why the Twitter user posted that graph. I’m only posting what that person did because that’s what they posted, I’m thinking of the source of the problem rather than regional cases.

I’m just being hopeful and not wasting my time worrying. I’ve had my mental health flushed down the toilet these past 24 months come March and it’s not nice at all. You get pr*cks like Peston loving all this and he as well as his fellow MSM cronies don’t help at all.

Living with the other half who always has the news on, it’s hard to avoid. Even when I got to my “man cave” to play my vinyls, she’ll knock the door saying not to be silly and watch the news with her, so there’s no avoiding it.

Am sick of hearing about spikes and proteins, as well as those stupid spikey ball graphics on TV. I’m surprised they haven’t made dog toys out of them yet hence the amount of times they are rammed in our faces 24/7.

Scepticism I may be showing here, but like I said before, my mental health got flushed down the toilet, got badly damaged and having to see a work colleague turn 40 during Covid times and seeing all her colleagues feel sorry for her was just painful to hear when we had a meeting on Teams, it really got to me as if it was me turning 40. I’m sick of those as well; Teams meetings and stupid fancy backgrounds of Cornwall landmarks.

As a result, I am not going to worry, I am not going to let this mess my mental health up all while Peston and his cronies try and do so, I’m just going to get on with things.

I do feel unlucky to be still young in a world with a virus about that can kill anyone, while we left the EU and have the worse MP ever in charge and therefore witness all this first hand, but I just have to live with it all.

The vaccine might even be able to stop this and if it don’t, it’s just some tweaking to the existing vaccines that won’t take ages to do.

Edited November 26, 2021 by KernowCanary

[Well b back 3,190]

Unfortunately that map did not do a lot better it was cut off from the alarming spike in just 2 days, it is like us going from 40,000 cases a day to the next 2 days having 400,000 cases a day ie up by 10x. Hopefully it will shoot back down, but if Tsung University is anything to go by this is highly transmissible.

In a week their 7 day average has shot from 250 - 300 to 3600 and those cases are mainly in an area where they have found the variant.

Edited November 27, 2021 by Well b back

[Well b back 3,190]

The world are clearly trying to delay Omicron, with Pfizer saying 12 weeks to a new vaccine. 
Don’t be shocked to see mask wearing and social distancing return, with Whitty sent out out to fire the first warning shots.

[Well b back 3,190]

Hope we haven’t missed the boat again, news is pointing out we have imposed travel restrictions whilst other major countries have imposed travel bans.

[Well b back 3,190]

14 hours ago, ricardo said:

Unwarranted panic.

According to this guy Rt is 1.94, well below Delta.

 

Sorry to keep posting this morning but plenty of initial facts now being realised, but the data is not yet on a long enough timescale to show how accurate it is and may have been a one off. The data from the WHO puts the perspective into how transmissible this is. Their comparison shows it took Delta 6 weeks to become dominant in an area, whereas and I stress this is from a small area the new variant took 2 weeks to become dominant, with reports that people recently recovered from delta are catching it.

I know I bang on and on about this but anyone you know young or old ( 16/18 now can have 2 jabs ) that are due a jab, make sure they get there. 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

31 minutes ago, Well b back said:

The world are clearly trying to delay Omicron, with Pfizer saying 12 weeks to a new vaccine. 
Don’t be shocked to see mask wearing and social distancing return, with Whitty sent out out to fire the first warning shots.

All will agree that tweaks or modifications of the mRNA vaccines is relatively quick - but production, certification, distribution then actual jabs in a arms is easily 6 months plus. Far too late for this winter in the northern hemisphere.

If in the next 2  or 3 weeks Omicron turns out to be as billed then yes we are in for a very rough clamped down winter - Johnsons decision will be to act pre-emptively before Christmas - and we know the way he dithers

[ricardo 7,347]

Its just another step on the way to becoming the common cold.😉

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Well at least we have boosted the vast majority of the most vulnerable thst need it. I don't really care too much if we get to half a million cases a day tbh, as long as people aren't ending up in hospital or dead.

To think, if we'd have gone with indie sages idea of going back to step 2 and staying there for months back in July when delta first hit we'd, we'd still be having to deal with this uncertainty anyway just with a whole bunch of kids without antibodies 🤷

The single most important thing is vaccinating those groups that are likely to burden the health service. If there's a need for coercion or mandates, it has to focus squarely on these groups or we'll have to accept an overwhelmed health service. If it is really *that* transmissible then a bit of mask wearing and locking down without shutting schools etc. won't be enough.

Edited November 27, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Its just another step on the way to becoming the common cold.😉

Bleddy got one at the mo, Lateral flow says you can still kiss me.

[ricardo 7,347]

13 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Bleddy got one at the mo, Lateral flow says you can still kiss me.

Every silver lining has a cloud.

Had my flu jab this morning.

Keep on keeping on jabbing.👍

Edited November 27, 2021 by ricardo

[KernowCanary 214]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

The world are clearly trying to delay Omicron, with Pfizer saying 12 weeks to a new vaccine. 
Don’t be shocked to see mask wearing and social distancing return, with Whitty sent out out to fire the first warning shots.

Well aren’t you a ray of sunshine this fine morning!?.

No it damn won’t happen, as long as it’s kept away. I don’t think I’ll come into this thread anymore, it’s really doing me in.

Science boffins with their graphs and Twitter threads with a cotton reel emoji on show, scaremongering that we are returning to gloomy days again of keeping away from people by two metres and traffic lights at shops.

Its a shame there isn’t a function on here to make threads you don’t like invisible.

Edited November 27, 2021 by KernowCanary

[KernowCanary 214]

33 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Well at least we have boosted the vast majority of the most vulnerable thst need it. I don't really care too much if we get to half a million cases a day tbh, as long as people aren't ending up in hospital or dead.

To think, if we'd have gone with indie sages idea of going back to step 2 and staying there for months back in July when delta first hit we'd, we'd still be having to deal with this uncertainty anyway just with a whole bunch of kids without antibodies 🤷

The single most important thing is vaccinating those groups that are likely to burden the health service. If there's a need for coercion or mandates, it has to focus squarely on these groups or we'll have to accept an overwhelmed health service. If it is really *that* transmissible then a bit of mask wearing and locking down without shutting schools etc. won't be enough.

Well said, just what I want to hear. Some optimism and not a post to shatter mental health.

That’s me done in this thread.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Every silver lining has a cloud.

Had my flu jab this morning.

Keep on keeping on jabbing.👍

You're a bit behind with that. I walked into Boots (no, not marched) and within ten minutes I was walking out again having had the flu jab. No point going to the local surgery. Its barricaded. You've had your fuel allowance already I take it😉

[Indy 3,283]

Unfortunately those youngsters I know have been very vocal in saying they won’t be locked down again! I can understand that they’ve had enough of Covid, so I can’t see any enforced lockdown working, so the quicker this useless government bring back mandatory face masks, hygiene measures and social distancing the better things will be. If required once we know the impact of this new variant then more measures might need to be taken.

But it’s clear that even though Covid  umbers are up, hospitalisation and deaths haven’t gone up anywhere near enough to bring in any lockdowns or restrictions yet. Let’s not over react till we know.

Yes restrict travel and put in measures for traveling in and out of the country, measure test and learn.

Edited November 27, 2021 by Indy

[ricardo 7,347]

55 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

You're a bit behind with that. I walked into Boots (no, not marched) and within ten minutes I was walking out again having had the flu jab. No point going to the local surgery. Its barricaded. You've had your fuel allowance already I take it😉

Had it and spent it👍

Boots and Lloyds both let me down with no vaccine after making appointments.

Surgery had a big queue at 8.30am

Edited November 27, 2021 by ricardo