Corona Virus main thread

[KernowCanary 214]

If I ever release an album I’ll call it “That’s the weather, now onto todays Coronavirus figures!”, hence this being a phrase that’s been driving me up the wall a lot lately, seeing we are not hearing “We’re in this together” and such similar tripe anymore.

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

The 'far right wing' leftist Tim Poole makes far more cogent argument here than I ever could.

 

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by Iwans Big Toe

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

 

 

In the current European deaths per million list the UK is 19th

Hungary 5th

Romania 8th

Belgium 14th

Italy 15th

Poland 17th

Spain 20th

France 22nd

Sweden 28th

Germany 34th

and Iceland best of all in 47th

 

Maybe, but leaving aside Belgium who have, right from the very start recorded their data in a completely different way to everyone else (always higher) then the other poor performers are the tiny ones (including Gibraltar who I think are right up there at 6th or 7th) and the poorer eastern european countries.

If we look at the western and wealthier european states which we would normally benchmark ourselves against then we find that only Italy has performed worse than the UK, and I think they might reasonably claim to have some mitigation for that performance in that they were the only country in Europe that had zero warning that the virus had arrived and was circulating in Europe.

But Spain, France, Portugal, Greece (amazingly), Netherlands, Sweden, Germany et al have all done better than UK, and the really good ones such as Finland and Norway are only at around 10% of the UK deaths per million.

Ireland, the only country with a land border with the UK, is like Germany at just about 50% of the UK death rate.

So you are correct that we have outperformed the Bulgarians, Bosnians, Macedonians, Romanians, Hungarians and other similar countries, but if you are suggesting that makes our performance good, or even acceptable, then I would suggest that you are completely missing the point.

[KernowCanary 214]

Two of the 34 who died in Iceland were people on holiday there, with their originating locations unreported.

So in reality it’s 32 at the very most, maybe less.

[ricardo 7,328]

31 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

But Spain, France, Portugal, Greece (amazingly), Netherlands, Sweden, Germany et al have all done better than UK, and the really good ones such as Finland and Norway are only at around 10% of the UK deaths per million.

Ireland, the only country with a land border with the UK, is like Germany at just about 50% of the UK death rate.

You really need to be looking at what is happening in those countries tonight. Many are recording record numbers well in excess of their UK population equivalent. Those that are still below it are accelerating sharply and have plenty of scope to go further. There will be a lot of catching up going on in the coming weeks.

 

[Aggy 747]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

In the final analysis it will just be about deaths. Lots of things can be fudged but excess deaths will tell the story.

I expect that will be the case. I would say though that I don’t think even excess deaths are an absolute way of comparing which countries responded “better” than others.

Even if two governments reacted to covid in absolutely “the best” ways possible for their respective countries, but one of those countries had a health and social care system that was on the brink pre-covid and the other had one that was in far better shape, guess which is going to have more excess deaths. 

Or if two governments reacted to covid in absolutely “the best” ways possible for their respective countries, but one of them was a sparsely populated, fairly wealthy island nation, 600 miles away from anywhere else, and the other was a country with extreme poverty and incredibly densely packed cities, guess which is going to have more excess deaths.

Or if one country’s citizens had a median average age of 45 and the other only 28, guess which is going to have more excess deaths even if both governments reacted in “the best” way possible for their country.

As I’ve said on here before, there are so many factors affecting the death numbers for different countries that it really isn’t worth trying to seriously compare or rank.

If people want to hold the government to account, or whatever, far better (and far more persuasive) to focus on what happened here. Was the track and trace system managed properly? Were contracts awarded to the best people/companies for the job? Did they do everything the could, quickly enough, to get proper ppe etc. etc. etc. Did unlocking in July lead to the wave of deaths some on here were adamant there would be? Has the vaccine programme been rolled out well and quickly?

[Well b back 3,180]

8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

You really need to be looking at what is happening in those countries tonight. Many are recording record numbers well in excess of their UK population equivalent. Those that are still below it are accelerating sharply and have plenty of scope to go further. There will be a lot of catching up going on in the coming weeks.

 

Indeed

Portugal high = 15073 Today = 2398 86.9% of population fully vaccinated

France high = 86582 Today = 20366 77.9% of population fully vaccinated

Italy high = 37249 Today = 10645 74.8% of population fully vaccinated

Spain high = 44257 Today = 6315 80.7% of population fully vaccinated

Sweden 13% of its peak 67.7% of their population fully vaccinated

Ireland although still increasing a way to go until it reaches its peak 76.2% of population fully vaccinated 

It is estimated that 85% of population fully vaccinated could get you to herd immunity status.

For comparison in the U.K. 69% of the population are vaccinated.

The vaccinations are meant to prevent severe COVID not transmission and currently these countries have kept very low death rates since July / August.

Lets hope it stays that way and the U.K. Germany Austria to name but a few can finally have data to attack the anti vaxers so we can all get up to that magical 85% vaccinated. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

8 hours ago, ricardo said:

You really need to be looking at what is happening in those countries tonight. Many are recording record numbers well in excess of their UK population equivalent. Those that are still below it are accelerating sharply and have plenty of scope to go further. There will be a lot of catching up going on in the coming weeks.

 

Cases may be accelerating but are you seriously suggesting that the vaccines aren't going to work over there and that these countries are going to record the tens of thousands of deaths that they would need to catch up with the UK numbers, which let's not forget are also rising??

[Mark .Y. 351]

11 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I don't keep hammering the UK for its vaccination program which in general has been pretty successful albeit I think it is perfectly reasonable to say that the booster rollout was initially shambolic - though TBF that was nothing to do with the NHS Vaccination program and everything to do with this government's longstanding and complete inability to come up with simple, accurate and clear messages about the virus.

In fact I'm pretty sure that I've never 'hammered' the UK vaccination program & I've been very happy to be a beneficiary of it - what I have done on a few occasions though is to push back against the sort of nationalistic triumphalism we heard quite a lot of earlier in the year that our vaccine program was unique and a success which no other country would match whereas in practice although they may have started a bit later than us many countries have not just caught us up but overtaken us.

Anyway there was deinitely no criticism of our vaccine program in my post you replied to - I was simply pointing out that @Ricardo, who seems to delight in any problems our European neighbours may hit and use them as an excuse to peddle the same old myth that 'there wouldnt be a fag packet between them when all is done and dusted' is completely wrong.

We all know, @ricardo better than many, that the vaccines have completely changed the arithmetic of the virus.and therefore countries like the US & UK that performed very badly last year in terms of unnecessary deaths are inevitably still going be poor performers in the final analysis. So given the huge existing discrepany in deaths between UK and Germany, even another wave of virus isn't going to change that gap much since both countries have pretty good levels of vaccine meaning the death toll will be of a completely different order to the last year without vaccine.

The whole point of restrictions last year was to buy time until we had a vaccine and some countries played it a lot better than others and protected their citizens much better than others, and the vaccine is gradually baking those differences in as it scales back the death tolls for everyone - we are not all, despite @ricardo's protestations, going to come out of this with very similar overall outcomes.

Once again, I agree with some of what you say, but you did say this..............

 Exactly so - France is the only one that I've been keeping much of an eye on - they are well ahead of us in vaccinations and at about 20% of UK cases, hospitalisations, and deaths and this has been the case for months now.

and the "Our World in Data" charts do not seem to support this.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said:

Once again, I agree with some of what you say, but you did say this..............

 Exactly so - France is the only one that I've been keeping much of an eye on - they are well ahead of us in vaccinations and at about 20% of UK cases, hospitalisations, and deaths and this has been the case for months now.

and the "Our World in Data" charts do not seem to support this.

Which bit don't they support? I suppose 'well ahead' in vaccination is somewhat subjective but from memory I think it was around 67% to 74/75% which I'd say is pretty significant, and as you can see from @Well b back's updated numbers they are maintaining and probably stretching that lead a bit further.

As for the French case numbers they were correct when I quoted them and even though France is now rising a bit more quickly than the UK their daily cases & deaths are still less than a third of the UK's.

[Mark .Y. 351]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Which bit don't they support? I suppose 'well ahead' in vaccination is somewhat subjective but from memory I think it was around 67% to 74/75% which I'd say is pretty significant, and as you can see from @Well b back's updated numbers they are maintaining and probably stretching that lead a bit further.

As for the French case numbers they were correct when I quoted them and even though France is now rising a bit more quickly than the UK their daily cases & deaths are still less than a third of the UK's.

It's the vaccinations part CM. If you look back on the chart I have recently posted you will see that, according to "Our World in Data" (which I did think was a good source) there is around 1% difference between the UK and France in percentage of population fully vaccinated, with Germany very close behind us. 

I'm not sure what @Well b back has used for his source. 

[Well b back 3,180]

This also shows how the rich nations don’t give a flying f*** about the poorer nations unless it is to help a country economically or politically. Portugal is about to start vaccinating their 5 - 11 when it is approved next few days, at that point they estimate they will be 94% vaccinated. I may be mistaken but the bigger anti vax movement you have in your country then the lower your rate once you get below age 45. It also seems the more freedoms you give your citizens the lower the take up rate.
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

[ricardo 7,328]

The Dutch not happy about another lockdown.

 

[Indy 3,283]

From what I can see, we should all take heed and adopt simple measures like wearing masks and distancing if we can….

The key measures for ma are still the hospitalisation and deaths, not the confirmed Covid cases as it’s generally the over 60 and those with other ailments who are likely to need treatment. If the vaccines are keeping these number low enough to continue, then lockdowns don’t work as all it’s doing is extending the virus timeline, we will need to live with it and we need to accept it for what it is, we can’t keep closing the normal way of life down every few months, we need to learn to be smarter and not think the new normal is as it was in 2019! We need to keep ourselves safe by doing our own risk assessment and protect ourselves by our own measure, by doing this we protect others too.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

16 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

I guess I had just seen it pretty simplistically :

 

Israel vaccinated first and then started to see increased cases earlier in the year, which came down after they rolled out boosters.

 

The UK was next with its vaccine programme and saw an increased number of cases after a similar delay to Israel which has come down after rolling out boosters.

The EU was some was behind the UK in its vaccine programme and has now started to see an increased number of cases and is now starting to roll out boosters....

 

I'm sure there can be plenty of other factors but I haven't seen anything to say this is not the main reason for this repeated pattern as yet.  Certainly we should be keeping a very close eye on what happens now and next few months  in Israel !!

 

Not trying to be picky  - but 

"The UK was next with its vaccine programme and saw an increased number of cases after a similar delay to Israel which has come down after rolling out boosters."

Just isn't true. Yes Israel rolled out boosters (and reintroduced masks) and their numbers rapidly decreased.

The UK rolled out boosters (and no masks etc) and the numbers at best have remained stable or indeed risen. 

 

That really sums up my much earlier point - boosters alone didn't/doesn't quickly reduce numbers - well not until the young are boosted too (let alone even vaccinated). The booster argument is important for severe symptoms but isn't what is driving the case numbers themselves (and then spill over into the vaccinated/boosted even) in many countries even here but I think is being portrayed as a painless simple as opposed to slightly more intrusive measures (masks & social distancing) by some. 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Discussion on BBC breakfast about rising cases in much of Europe citing a range of factors, low vaccine uptake in some areas, vaccine efficacy starting to wane (now about 6 months since they were giving 2nd jabs widely) and that they didn’t have the delta wave of cases earlier so don’t have as much natural immunity as the Uk. Also maybe effect of winter weather meaning more indoor socialising.

 

Personally I think the UK generally is on the right course at the moment, it’s been 4 months with no restrictions and modelling is predicting case numbers to go down. The mental health impacts of lockdowns and restrictions generally should not be ignored, we should avoid reimposing them unless absolutely necessary which so far they’ve not been.

 

Opening up during the good (well, mostly) weather in July is now looking a very good decision.

 

yes we should have pushed the booster vaccines much more high profile way and we should be funding vaccines for the areas that haven’t had so many much more than we are. I wish people would be asking about this not debating why Iceland has done better than other countries etc.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Discussion on BBC breakfast about rising cases in much of Europe citing a range of factors, low vaccine uptake in some areas, vaccine efficacy starting to wane (now about 6 months since they were giving 2nd jabs widely) and that they didn’t have the delta wave of cases earlier so don’t have as much natural immunity as the Uk. Also maybe effect of winter weather meaning more indoor socialising.

 

Personally I think the UK generally is on the right course at the moment, it’s been 4 months with no restrictions and modelling is predicting case numbers to go down. The mental health impacts of lockdowns and restrictions generally should not be ignored, we should avoid reimposing them unless absolutely necessary which so far they’ve not been.

 

Opening up during the good (well, mostly) weather in July is now looking a very good decision.

 

yes we should have pushed the booster vaccines much more high profile way and we should be funding vaccines for the areas that haven’t had so many much more than we are. I wish people would be asking about this not debating why Iceland has done better than other countries etc.

I agree entirely that it isn't a competition. No country will come out of this better than before so its totally irrelevant. We just need to hope that the UK does the right thing by its own citizens and the rest of the world.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Not trying to be picky  - but 

"The UK was next with its vaccine programme and saw an increased number of cases after a similar delay to Israel which has come down after rolling out boosters."

Just isn't true. Yes Israel rolled out boosters (and reintroduced masks) and their numbers rapidly decreased.

The UK rolled out boosters (and no masks etc) and the numbers at best have remained stable or indeed risen. 

 

That really sums up my much earlier point - boosters alone didn't/doesn't quickly reduce numbers - well not until the young are boosted too (let alone even vaccinated). The booster argument is important for severe symptoms but isn't what is driving the case numbers themselves (and then spill over into the vaccinated/boosted even) in many countries even here but I think is being portrayed as a painless simple as opposed to slightly more intrusive measures (masks & social distancing) by some. 

According to the ONS the level of Covid cases in England declined by about 25% in the two weeks to 19th November going from over 2% with Covid to about 1.5% with Covid.

I don’t mind you being picky but the true picture is that since reopening in July we’ve seen some periods of cases going down (which was a big surprise at the time), periods when they were level and periods when they’ve gone up. To say “at best stable” is simply and categorically wrong according to the ONS data.

 

Given our discussions about the need to manage Covid numbers not hoping it will just go ahead, I think the general policy is correct.

[sonyc 5,481]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

From what I can see, we should all take heed and adopt simple measures like wearing masks and distancing if we can….

The key measures for ma are still the hospitalisation and deaths, not the confirmed Covid cases as it’s generally the over 60 and those with other ailments who are likely to need treatment. If the vaccines are keeping these number low enough to continue, then lockdowns don’t work as all it’s doing is extending the virus timeline, we will need to live with it and we need to accept it for what it is, we can’t keep closing the normal way of life down every few months, we need to learn to be smarter and not think the new normal is as it was in 2019! We need to keep ourselves safe by doing our own risk assessment and protect ourselves by our own measure, by doing this we protect others too.

Agree with you here Indy. I doubt we will see a lockdown again (unless something catastrophic happens). The figures of infections are higher now than they ever were under the lockdown periods (Zoe). Vaccines work but they are expected, it feels, to do all the heavy lifting. I would prefer our government to provide a stronger message on mask wearing etc - not a sort of Draconian edict - especially whilst case numbers remain so high.

I think this is needed. We read weekly now about the NHS and winter, about the pressure on non-Covid treatments but serious staff shortages in some areas too. Worryingly, staff are saying they are exhausted.  These are not just sound bites from the popular press but the voices of senior staff nurses who run departments. They form a collective a voice I tend to listen to.

The additional pressure this pandemic has caused on an already stressed sector (not forgetting the loss of nurses who have returned to Europe) is just not relenting.

I'm much more hopeful for 2022 I have to say, yet the story that is the state of our health service, is going to fill many front pages in the next 4 months. Just must hope that the development of oral treatments can accelerate and that our immunity levels adapt well 

[Barbe bleu 809]

4 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

It's the vaccinations part CM. If you look back on the chart I have recently posted you will see that, according to "Our World in Data" (which I did think was a good source) there is around 1% difference between the UK and France in percentage of population fully vaccinated, with Germany very close behind us. 

I'm not sure what @Well b back has used for his source. 

You might both be right.

In terms of number of jabs France is around 1-2% ahead of the UK which is almost  immaterial. 

But in terms of 'fully vaccinated' the two nations define it differently. In the UK its two jabs; in France its two jabs or one jab and confirmed infection.    That might be the reason for CMs 7-8% difference.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I wonder how high cases will have to go before some travel restrictions may be imposed.

[KernowCanary 214]

How long did Spanish flu keep a presence in the world media?, two years and a few months wasn’t it?, I think this one will beat that due to our hysteria-obsessed MSM.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 minute ago, KernowCanary said:

How long did Spanish flu keep a presence in the world media?, two years and a few months wasn’t it?, I think this one will beat that due to our hysteria-obsessed MSM.

To be fair, there was a news blackout and censorship immediately after WW1.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

As always I’m so impressed with how far back posters’ memories go 😂😂 how did City fare in the 19/20 season (that’s 1919/1920) !!

[Mark .Y. 351]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

You might both be right.

In terms of number of jabs France is around 1-2% ahead of the UK which is almost  immaterial. 

But in terms of 'fully vaccinated' the two nations define it differently. In the UK its two jabs; in France its two jabs or one jab and confirmed infection.    That might be the reason for CMs 7-8% difference.

Here is the chart that is simply those who are fully vaccinated, this shows (as you said) that France hasn't really done much more than the UK. I think @Creative Midfielder and @Well b back  must have seen figures showing that different definition.....................

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

9 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

As always I’m so impressed with how far back posters’ memories go 😂😂 how did City fare in the 19/20 season (that’s 1919/1920) !!

I must admit I am like a sponge. If I hear or read something it normally sticks in my brain. And Spanish Flu is quite topical. Good chat round the golf course throws up some useful information although some might consider it trivia.

[sonyc 5,481]

1 hour ago, KernowCanary said:

How long did Spanish flu keep a presence in the world media?, two years and a few months wasn’t it?, I think this one will beat that due to our hysteria-obsessed MSM.

Incredibly it NEVER went away. And still it is about today!

https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

Quite incredible really.

Masks forever? Just wonder whether we might see masks worn more in the future in the UK (like significant numbers of the population do in Japanese cities)?

Maybe Covid becomes something else like Spanish Flu has.

 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Incredibly it NEVER went away. And still it is about today!

https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

Quite incredible really.

Masks forever? Just wonder whether we might see masks worn more in the future in the UK (like significant numbers of the population do in Japanese cities)?

Maybe Covid becomes something else like Spanish Flu has.

 

I can live with that ... hopefully.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

3 hours ago, sonyc said:

Incredibly it NEVER went away. And still it is about today!

https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

Quite incredible really.

Masks forever? Just wonder whether we might see masks worn more in the future in the UK (like significant numbers of the population do in Japanese cities)?

Maybe Covid becomes something else like Spanish Flu has.

 

this was precisely what was predicted all along. Realistically, all we can do is get better and better vaccines and therapeutics and support wider public health equality better with the goal of reducing COVID to nothing more than a nuisance cold. Sarah Gilbert and Andrew Pollard have both essentially said this when asked how it ends a year ago.

Maybe at that point we can have 1 million cases a day and it doesn't really matter. Mandatory NPI's are unsustainable and their negative effects are chronic (I.e. shut a business for 2 weeks and most will cope, continuously do that and they've got no chance). The world needs to keep turning or we'll end up with far worse problems than Covid.

[ricardo 7,328]

National

40,941 - 150

rate of increase of 10.7% over 7 days, . Rate of increase slows for third day, good news??

 

Local

Norwich rate  285.5            but rate falling from Thursday

All of Norwich down 3.8%

     

N&N Patients

16-11-2021                            27     down slightly from 30

Vax     

1st Dose      26,603              88.2% done                               Norwich numbers   77.3% 

2nd Dose     20,942              80.2% done                                                                  70.2%

Booster     348,245     total          14,614,613                 25.4%

In Hospital

18-11-2021	8,079
17-11-2021	8,182
16-11-2021	8,435
15-11-2021	8,720
14-11-2021	8,565
13-11-2021	8,483
12-11-2021	8,619