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National

43,467 - 186

rate of decrease of 12.7% over 7 days,

decrease begins to speed up.

 

Local

Norwich rate 519.2  down 13.4% (7 days) peaked

patients in N&N 

26-10-2021                              38
25-10-2021 33
24-10-2021 28
23-10-2021 22
22-10-2021 22
21-10-2021 26
20-10-2021 26
 
   
   
   
   

Vax     

1st Dose      44,702             86.7% done                               Norwich numbers   75% 

2nd Dose     23,723             79.4% done                                                                  68.5%

Booster    297,656     total 7,293,638

In Hospital  (close to peak)

28-10-2021                                     8,983
27-10-2021 8,926
26-10-2021 8,829
25-10-2021 8,725
24-10-2021 8,411
23-10-2021 8,248
22-10-2021 8,268
 
 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
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4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

More blue now beginning to appear, confirming we have peaked.

Image

Going down according to this fella I follow. Click for more responses.

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2 hours ago, Well b back said:

I don’t like to be negative @It's Character Forming but this week is not a good week for looking at the official results as the kids have not been getting their 2 tests per week picking up the a symptomatic cases. They may therefore be accurate or miles out.

Good or bad we will know where we are at the end of next week.

It is a fair point @Well b back but equally there's a temptation to try to "explain away" any decreases in case numbers as not real (while accepting increases at face value even when, e.g., they are from ONS data that are now well out of date - which we're still seeing even now).  We saw this after restrictions were relaxed in July and the daily PCR case numbers promptly fell, and a lot of explanations were put forward for why that might not reflect a real decline in case numbers, but it turned out that was backed up by the ONS numbers for the period when they did eventually come out, i.e. we can now be pretty sure case numbers did actually fall then (which was a surprise).  Certainly I agree we should be cautious, but the PCR numbers so far have been a good guide (and the leading indicator) of where Covid cases are going, so I remain optimistic that we have passed the peak, but certainly if we see them going sharply back upwards next week, I'll need a rethink.

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5 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

It is a fair point @Well b back but equally there's a temptation to try to "explain away" any decreases in case numbers as not real (while accepting increases at face value even when, e.g., they are from ONS data that are now well out of date - which we're still seeing even now).  We saw this after restrictions were relaxed in July and the daily PCR case numbers promptly fell, and a lot of explanations were put forward for why that might not reflect a real decline in case numbers, but it turned out that was backed up by the ONS numbers for the period when they did eventually come out, i.e. we can now be pretty sure case numbers did actually fall then (which was a surprise).  Certainly I agree we should be cautious, but the PCR numbers so far have been a good guide (and the leading indicator) of where Covid cases are going, so I remain optimistic that we have passed the peak, but certainly if we see them going sharply back upwards next week, I'll need a rethink.

You should know by now that when numbers go up it is nothing to do with increased testing but when they go down it is because of decreased testing😉

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42 minutes ago, ricardo said:

You should know by now that when numbers go up it is nothing to do with increased testing but when they go down it is because of decreased testing😉

Indeed you have u turned and forgotten to tell people that tests have decreased this week due to the kids not testing, which is of course the highest infected groups. Unless I am mistaken therefore you have done no different by not mentioning a possible very relevant fact, testing is down 11% and so are cases. You cannot tell wether the figures are are up, peaked or going down until 2 weeks time, so I am not disagreeing with you or Yellow Fever, but this very week last year the figures dipped dramatically and we all know what happened 2 weeks later. I pray the figures have peaked, so let’s hope you and the government figures do ring true.

My biggest concern at the moment is the boosters, that are now 7.5 million behind. I see the government have just simplified things and told us to do exactly what we have been doing for 3 weeks, ie being flexible with the 6 months, not waiting for appointments, getting to a walk in, you are not jumping the queue, there maybe some that jumped the queue initially, but now it’s 6 months. 6 months ago we were giving 867,000 jabs a day. 

 

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

You should know by now that when numbers go up it is nothing to do with increased testing but when they go down it is because of decreased testing😉

Oddly Ricardo I think it's you placing a regular spin on things.

Every increase is 'slow', 'steady' or a 'wavelet' being the latest term (as opposed to a storm or tsunami of new cases every day - 43K today is not insignificant). Every decrease is 'significant', end in sight etc. (for the last 12 to 15 months). One day of course you'll be correct - we all hope so as said before. However I've argued since the start that caution is the order of the day, 1 swallow a summer does not make and only trust the random sampled data. We all want to believe it's diminishing if we shut one eye to the data but that does make it true. Are we now still following Scotland?

As WBB says lets see what happens over the next couple of weeks - kids back and 'fermenting' and no other countervailing measures. Autumnal nights, Halloween and fireworks parties.  I suspect at best cases will still be plateauing and at worse Javid's 100K 'confirmed' PCR may be proved correct (as opposed to nearing 100K today anyway)!  

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Interesting article in the Economist about “how India beat Covid” or, as the article then says, “rather, how Covid beat India”. Basically early this year before their vaccine programme got going properly, the Delta variant took hold and they had massive case numbers which peaked early May and then dropped equally fast - I’ll try to copy the graph from the article . They hadn’t vaccinated many by then and they didn’t lock down so it appears the decline was due to natural immunity being acquired. But the cost was awful at an estimated 2.3m excess deaths. I suspect a similar picture applies to many parts of the world which don’t have as good data reporting as India. Antibody levels are now over 90%.

 

Hopefully now their vaccine programme is now in high gear this will boost their natural immunity so that Covid will continue in an endemic state but not worse.

 

This confirms my view we have to accept Covid is never going away so we have to accept ongoing case levels and it’s about managing them to stop the NHS getting overloaded. If anything it’s better, it seems to me, to have an ongoing level of Covid cases when your population is freshly vaccinated, otherwise you’ll just have them later when the vaccine benefit is waning. So new infections can be “too low” as well as “too high”, we need to manage the level of the disease and what’s critical is the level of cases in hospitals.

 

Restrictions such as WFH and ultimately lockdowns simply delay the disease, they don’t stop it. So we must save them for when they’re really needed, not as a panicky response every time case numbers go up.

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National

41,278 - 166

rate of decrease of 14.2% over 7 days,

decrease continues to speed up.

 

Local

Norwich rate 449.9  down 26.1% (7 days) now dropping sharply

 

Vax     

1st Dose      39,186             86.8% done                               Norwich numbers   75% 

2nd Dose     21,726             79.4% done                                                                  68.5%

Booster    270,785     total          7,564,723

In Hospital

28-10-2021                             8,983
27-10-2021 8,926
26-10-2021 8,829
25-10-2021 8,725
24-10-2021 8,411
23-10-2021 8,248
22-10-2021 8,268

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4 minutes ago, Herman said:

Decrease of what. UK residents?

Not with 1800/2000 new births every day in the UK

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52 minutes ago, Herman said:

Decrease of what. UK residents?

Doesn’t that happen every year around this time? 

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Just now, Aggy said:

Doesn’t that happen every year around this time? 

No, nobody dies in October usually. Ol' Thatcher banned it.

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4 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Interesting article in the Economist about “how India beat Covid” or, as the article then says, “rather, how Covid beat India”. Basically early this year before their vaccine programme got going properly, the Delta variant took hold and they had massive case numbers which peaked early May and then dropped equally fast - I’ll try to copy the graph from the article . They hadn’t vaccinated many by then and they didn’t lock down so it appears the decline was due to natural immunity being acquired. But the cost was awful at an estimated 2.3m excess deaths. I suspect a similar picture applies to many parts of the world which don’t have as good data reporting as India. Antibody levels are now over 90%.

 

Hopefully now their vaccine programme is now in high gear this will boost their natural immunity so that Covid will continue in an endemic state but not worse.

 

This confirms my view we have to accept Covid is never going away so we have to accept ongoing case levels and it’s about managing them to stop the NHS getting overloaded. If anything it’s better, it seems to me, to have an ongoing level of Covid cases when your population is freshly vaccinated, otherwise you’ll just have them later when the vaccine benefit is waning. So new infections can be “too low” as well as “too high”, we need to manage the level of the disease and what’s critical is the level of cases in hospitals.

 

Restrictions such as WFH and ultimately lockdowns simply delay the disease, they don’t stop it. So we must save them for when they’re really needed, not as a panicky response every time case numbers go up.

Interesting thoughts ICF. I have wondered too whether the fact that rates are so high means that the virus is so prevalent but also hopefully that the vaccine effect takes off a lot of the really dangerous effects.

I've been thinking about this and made a link to a story I've heard today....a friend this afternoon phoned (usually hear from him 2/3 times a year) and he told me he got Covid two weeks ago (both of his young children too). He was very worried at one point about problems breathing one night. Luckily he got through that. Yet it remains with him in terms of feeling wiped out and exhausted. He is doubly vaccinated. His wife didn't get it at all! Very scary when it gets so close up with people you know. Their children are still very peeky. The effects haven't left them either.

Anyway, I concluded it's a grey area thinking of the population becoming naturally immune (my friend thought he probably got it from his daughter's school) through higher rates.

There is a Twitter debate if you look for it about the JCVI minutes and  using children as a form of 'booster' effect for adults...plus comments that unofficial government policy is indeed to let things ripple through without too much care for the value of life. So, it's a complex area, one of ethics.

I'm also waiting to see if we get it. For the first time in two years last week we went to a gig (John Cooper Clarke)...indoors obviously, little social distancing, warm inside, no masks whilst performances taking place... and I was thinking all the time that it was enough time for any virus to spread. 3 full days have elapsed now so maybe if we are going to be okay might have to wait another few days. You did have to show your vaccination certificates before entering so that was one measure.

Anyway, worrying days but I believe people are becoming less scared. The rates are as high as ever. On Zoe our metropolitan numbers have never been higher in all the time I've monitored it. In fact almost double the highest number I've seen (over 20,000 today).

We haven't heard the last of it. Still a nervy winter I believe for the NHS. I've no idea what might happen but I'm clinging (a little) to those 7 day trend graphs and the downward trend being as sharp as modelled.

 

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3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Not with 1800/2000 new births every day in the UK

And there’s your climate crises in a nutshell, in 50 years we’ve doubled the global population and increased the pressure on natural resources way above maximum levels our planet can cope with! And it still climbing……

 

Edited by Indy

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I have my booster booked for Thursday and did it through the website and waited until it said I was eligible.

Mrs KG took an old chap we do errands for to have his booster today and they said she could have hers without booking as they have the capacity for walk ins. 

Yet if you use the GOV or NHS sites, it is telling you to wait until 6 months and one week.

Chaos looming?

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7 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

I have my booster booked for Thursday and did it through the website and waited until it said I was eligible.

Mrs KG took an old chap we do errands for to have his booster today and they said she could have hers without booking as they have the capacity for walk ins. 

Yet if you use the GOV or NHS sites, it is telling you to wait until 6 months and one week.

Chaos looming?

Hi KG

Thank you for bringing this up and showing what is happening in real life.

With respect I keep telling people lots of people are not being asked so you must go to a walk in. I beg people once more, don’t wait for a text or an email, you are not as some try to claim ‘ queue jumping ‘ at 6 months and with flexibility upto 4 days before that is when you are due, that is what you are entitled to. 
As you have seen the NHS are desperate to get the boosters in arms and until recently it was out of their hands. The guy from the first vaccines is now back in charge. I am having a day off today for the football, but you will find the vaccine task force in the main are working 12 hour shifts 7 days a week as there are so few of us now lots have returned back to their ‘ normal jobs ‘.

The guys and girls where I often work on a Sunday are set up for about 155 jabs, but because people need to go to walk ins to get what they are entitled to ( and need ) they will have up to 2 hour queues and administer about 400 jabs.

 

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Keep up Javid, we have been doing this for 5 weeks. A government that has f***** up the beginning of the booster and schools roll out and is completely out of touch with what is happening. In reality we have 2 weeks of the programme left, and young people are booked in next week for jabs, which many have already had, not just a waste of vaccine that will be thrown away, while other countries have none, but highly dangerous, wait for the headline, child jabbed in 1/2 term gets jabbed again.

This is somebody that messed up taking credit for how the NHS have put it right.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59107256

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10 hours ago, Well b back said:

Keep up Javid, we have been doing this for 5 weeks. A government that has f***** up the beginning of the booster and schools roll out and is completely out of touch with what is happening. In reality we have 2 weeks of the programme left, and young people are booked in next week for jabs, which many have already had, not just a waste of vaccine that will be thrown away, while other countries have none, but highly dangerous, wait for the headline, child jabbed in 1/2 term gets jabbed again.

This is somebody that messed up taking credit for how the NHS have put it right.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59107256

Quite, is Javid an upgrade or downgrade on Matt Hancock - that genuinely is quite a tricky one. Even though Matt was useless I think Javid is probably proving himself to be even worse.

Anyway the real question should be, why during a pandemic and the worse public health crisis this country has seen in any of our lifetimes does the idiot Johnson keep appointing Health Secretaries that are palpably unfit for the job. 

Edited by Creative Midfielder
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National

38,009 - 74

rate of decrease of 13.5% over 7 days,

decrease continues to speed up.

 

Local

Norwich rate 441.3  down 25.7% (7 days) now dropping sharply

 

Vax     

1st Dose      33,743             86.9% done                               Norwich numbers   75.4% 

2nd Dose     24,908             79.5% done                                                                  68.6%

Booster    361,428     total          7,925,851

In Hospital

28-10-2021                             8,983
27-10-2021 8,926
26-10-2021 8,829
25-10-2021 8,725
24-10-2021 8,411
23-10-2021 8,248
22-10-2021 8,268
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Now it’s Boris that needs to keep up FFS. I have been telling everyone most places allowing walk ins and at six months for four weeks. Johnson announces it begins today, completely out of touch. As I have said many times, please, please, please if your 6 months are up get to a walk in and get your booster, don’t wait for any texts, emails or other invites. We are currently an estimated 9 million behind. If you have elderly relatives that struggle with mobility, get them to a site, get it sorted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59116051

Edited by Well b back
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National

40,077 - 40

rate of decrease of 8.9% over 7 days,

 

Local

Norwich rate 406.7  down 22% (7 days) now dropping sharply

 

Vax     

1st Dose      27,402             86.9% done                               Norwich numbers   75.4% 

2nd Dose     13,449             79.5% done                                                                  68.6%

Booster    163,949     total          8,115,229

In Hospital

29-10-2021                             9,065
28-10-2021 8,999
27-10-2021 8,940
26-10-2021 8,842
25-10-2021 8,738
24-10-2021 8,421
23-10-2021 8,257
 
   
   
   
   
   
   

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On 30/10/2021 at 20:17, ricardo said:

The dogs breakfast chart again but indicative of how quickly the spikes are collapsing.

Image

I've just rewired my internet using this diagram. Brilliant. I can now get the Billy Cotton show on the wireless and Dixon of Dock Green on the telly.

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12 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I've just rewired my internet using this diagram. Brilliant. I can now get the Billy Cotton show on the wireless and Dixon of Dock Green on the telly.

Don't forget that green is the earth wire.

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17 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

The 'convivial and fraternal' defence against Covid as recommended by JRM seems to have not worked.

 

Surely not....

The same man who stated Grenfell victims had little common sense? The same person who stated that fish would be happier in UK waters (despite recently voting for water companies to dump raw sewage in our seas)? The same person now supporting Owen Patterson who has broken lobbying rules...but stayed mute when the investigations found the Leave campaign illegal? The same person who stated food would be cheaper post Brexit? 

Why...it's our convivial friend.

What's wrong with having a basic level of integrity in our politics.

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