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Thank goodness for the Imperial College scientists! At last (but better sooner rather than later) their modelling has shown what inadequate social distancing will have led to (and we have to hope folk now follow government advice). Modelling the current curve without social distancing (or a degree of planned lockdown) we will face well over 100,000 active cases within two weeks and catastrophic numbers a week after that. Can only hope the upward curve will show signs of flattening in a week's time. Otherwise the stories coming out of our NHS will shock us more. Good too to hear about testing ramp ups and ventilator urgency.

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That seems to be related to employees who fall ill and their entitlement to SSP, unless I am missing something. If you had to shutdown your catering business, you wouldn't entitled to compensation, would you? I'm asking as my wife is in a similar position with her restaurant. It's been loss-making for the past two weeks as footfall has dried up. And she won' be able to keep it going indefinitely if it continues to lose money over a long period

We are mainly thinking about our staff. We can handle a bit of a closure and maybe run with just us but one lady has already stopped work because her son is showing symptoms.

But this is the main part

Those who are not eligible for SSP, for example the self-employed or people earning below the Lower Earnings Limit of £118 per week, can now more easily make a claim for Universal Credit or Contributory Employment and Support Allowance

I understood this to mean that the self employed can claim for the same benefits excluding SSP as any other worker. CESA is paid for up to 365 days if you are incapable of work. And the Chancellor alluded that the self employed could use this method and was apportioning funds to assist.

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Across the UK the race is on to develop a vaccine

whereas in the US there has been a huge increase in the sale of guns

only in the US could it be thought that the solution is to shoot the virus 😅

 

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The very famous Flora Day in Helston has been cancelled this year. And that is May. As has the Royal Cornwall Show and that is June.

I imagine that means many others must be considering do the same thing. Glastonbury must be a casualty with its closeness and lack of hygiene.

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I think the thought there is that things may well have settled down by then, but smaller events do not have the funding to pay up

front on the basis on there being no way of recouping the money if it then cannot go ahead.

Unlike with bad weather there is no insurance cover.

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1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

Euros postponed then. Wait for EPL and EFL to say they plan to extend season to resolve matters.

Yes, I think that is exactly what they will say. They want a window to extend (like a transfer one) so they can avoid hassle a bit longer. I wonder when the cut off will be. Even the government has suggested 12 weeks for reduced social contact. You'd think football authorities will have to do the same for a start.

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8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, I think that is exactly what they will say. They want a window to extend (like a transfer one) so they can avoid hassle a bit longer. I wonder when the cut off will be. Even the government has suggested 12 weeks for reduced social contact. You'd think football authorities will have to do the same for a start.

The can say what they like. The season is over. VIRUS 10 : EPL/EFL/UEFA/FA Nil. Wipe out.

If you restart say next spring (realistic) it's hardly the same season!

 

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33 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Euros postponed then. Wait for EPL and EFL to say they plan to extend season to resolve matters.

The further they kick it the longer the grass will get. Everyone else can see it's game over.

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7 hours ago, sonyc said:

Thank goodness for the Imperial College scientists! At last (but better sooner rather than later) their modelling has shown what inadequate social distancing will have led to (and we have to hope folk now follow government advice). Modelling the current curve without social distancing (or a degree of planned lockdown) we will face well over 100,000 active cases within two weeks and catastrophic numbers a week after that. Can only hope the upward curve will show signs of flattening in a week's time. Otherwise the stories coming out of our NHS will shock us more. Good too to hear about testing ramp ups and ventilator urgency.

I borrowed this from the New York Times article on the data.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html

image.png.bf7a0406bc88387b0ff849f4d7b52985.png

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3 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

I borrowed this from the New York Times article on the data.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html

image.png.bf7a0406bc88387b0ff849f4d7b52985.png

That is a very useful graph IS. Shows the effect of different strategies. And interesting that the back end (if it is) could be July/August. I wondered about this timeframe in another posting (prob on the non football thread)

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Yes, I think that is exactly what they will say. They want a window to extend (like a transfer one) so they can avoid hassle a bit longer. I wonder when the cut off will be. Even the government has suggested 12 weeks for reduced social contact. You'd think football authorities will have to do the same for a start.

This can still be done. Everyone will need a "pre-season" month to get up to speed again - so taking the covers off in mid-June means they can't start until at least mid-July. Some teams have 10 games left which is at least 5 weeks i.e. end of August. Two week break, start the new season in mid-September, cancel all internationals and Carabao Cup to catch up. Job done.

Of course, if we can't take the covers off in mid-June...…..

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Let's just take the 'best case of 100 critical care beds per 100K of population (the blue curve).

That give very roughly (60M / 100K) x 100 = 60,000 critical care beds.

Yup - NHS 10 times oversubscribe at best case. Gulp.

I'm sure they'll find more beds but it gives an idea of the task. 

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2 minutes ago, sgncfc said:

This can still be done. Everyone will need a "pre-season" month to get up to speed again - so taking the covers off in mid-June means they can't start until at least mid-July. Some teams have 10 games left which is at least 5 weeks i.e. end of August. Two week break, start the new season in mid-September, cancel all internationals and Carabao Cup to catch up. Job done.

Of course, if we can't take the covers off in mid-June...…..

June 2021 ? 🙂

 

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56 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The further they kick it the longer the grass will get. Everyone else can see it's game over.

Couldn't agree more Ricardo(o) , the current strategy of postpone and review( ref footy) is just giving  out the bad news in small doses. The postponement of the Euros is the first solid marker.  Although I advocated voiding. I think what may happen is that there will be no real plan as such but for the new season to begin Aug 21. In between now and then the footy authories will try, I stress try, to complete season 19/20, even if it runs into 2021. This way , no litigation ,as if the season IS completed,  no one can really complain If it cant be done,it may eventually be voided BUT not until the governing  bodies of the various leagus and cups have tried ,tried and tried again to  complete.  That way they' come to court with clean hands' ( as judge Judy  says) having exhausted all possibilities. 

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The Imperial College so-called research is a pile of ****.  It's based on a comparison between the present situation and the 1919 flu pandemic, which is like comparing apples and oranges.

Firstly, Covid-19 isn't a flu virus.  Flu lays low younger, healthier people as well as older ones.  Secondly, there are too many unknowables about 1919 regarding the general health of the population, living conditions, and the ongoing physical and psychological effects of WW1 to make a comparison in any way valid.  

I'm not sure whether the govt has swallowed it whole in a blind panic, or whether they know it's worthless but have calculated that if enough people believe it, it will have the desired effect.

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There is huge difficulty in doing a proper scientific analysis of the way the virus operates on which to base a clear course of action.

Germany's death rate is a fraction of Italy's, for example.

The effect on younger healthy people seems to be much, much This is from the Los Angeles Times:

With the U.S. outbreak in its early stages, there isn’t yet good data on the ages and other characteristics of infected patients here. So experts have relied on the analysis of nearly 45,000 COVID-19 patients in China that was conducted by the country’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

 
 

The study accounts for more than a third of all reported cases of the disease. Worldwide, 118,000 people have been diagnosed with the disease so far and 4,200 have died from it.

The study identified very few deaths among people under 40. More than 12,000 people in that age group were infected, but only 26 died. It is unclear if those people had other medical conditions, such as asthma or cancer, that may have made them more vulnerable.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-11/covid-19-risk-healthy-young-person

 

So that's a death rate of about 0.25% c.f. a 3%+ rate overall. And some of those under 40's will have health problems.

The response is going to have to be a bit more sophisticated than shutting the country down.

I still think there may be some mileage in managed infection of the healthy to improve overall immunity, which can have a dramatic effect on transmission rate.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

 

I still think there may be some mileage in managed infection of the healthy to improve overall immunity, which can have a dramatic effect on transmission rate.

 

 

Are you volunteering Ron😷

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Just now, ricardo said:

Are you volunteering Ron😷

Actually, yes. And I'm 70. With the proviso that I'd want a check-up first to confirm I'm as healthy as I feel

!

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Couple of people have mentioned the Imperial College research but haven't seen anyone link the source:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Note that the graph posted further up the thread is the model based on the former mitigation strategy and not suppression which we have moved towards now.

People with an interest really should read the whole thing but it looks like best case we're just buying time to develop a vaccine or increase our critical care capacity.

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36 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

The Imperial College so-called research is a pile of ****.  It's based on a comparison between the present situation and the 1919 flu pandemic, which is like comparing apples and oranges.

Firstly, Covid-19 isn't a flu virus.  Flu lays low younger, healthier people as well as older ones.  Secondly, there are too many unknowables about 1919 regarding the general health of the population, living conditions, and the ongoing physical and psychological effects of WW1 to make a comparison in any way valid.  

I'm not sure whether the govt has swallowed it whole in a blind panic, or whether they know it's worthless but have calculated that if enough people believe it, it will have the desired effect.

Good job you have vast experience of the new varient coronavirus to undertake a better exercise then.

I doubt they will stop at a knighthood when you solve this one.

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1 hour ago, sgncfc said:

This can still be done. Everyone will need a "pre-season" month to get up to speed again - so taking the covers off in mid-June means they can't start until at least mid-July. Some teams have 10 games left which is at least 5 weeks i.e. end of August. Two week break, start the new season in mid-September, cancel all internationals and Carabao Cup to catch up. Job done.

Of course, if we can't take the covers off in mid-June...…..

Laughable nonsense.

Pigs will fly first.

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38 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

3 month mortgage holidays just announced.

Whilst that will help some it will also negatively effect their credit ratings longer term pushing up their mortgage costs long term. The banks are giving the holiday not the credit rating agencies 

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Uncle Fred said:

Whilst that will help some it will also negatively effect their credit ratings longer term pushing up their mortgage costs long term. The banks are giving the holiday not the credit rating agencies 

Don't most mortgages have this as a standard option already?

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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