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Interesting BBC article here on case numbers in the UK, although it doesn't really mention comparative levels of testing which always are the first thing I think about when I see anyone talk about the UK having higher case numbers than other European countries.  Also it fails to mention the surprising way Covid has developed in the UK since restrictions were removed in mid-July, i.e. the totally unexpected decline in cases that followed in England, etc.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58954793?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

 

Also it's from a few days back, so doesn't discuss the fact that case numbers may have now peaked on the latest wavelet of infections.  Has "wavelet" always been a word or has it just appeared to describe a short-lived period of increase in Covid infections ?

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I think you'll find the only golden linings went not to any NHS retirees but to Johnson's mates who were awarded the vastly overpriced contracts, just as in the PPE VIP lane, and who trousered nassive profits despite delivering sub-standard to completely useless products/services.

And who picks up that £37b tab - the taxpayers, i.e. pretty much all of us including everyone in the NHS whether working or retired.

Ask VW😀

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13 hours ago, Van wink said:

Yep, there were three studies and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine seems to be the one that has grabbed the headlines. They are all reported below

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027851/S1383_SPI-M-O_Summary_autumn_winter_scenarios.pdf

Thanks VW - It is a good read and illustrates some of the (heroic) assumptions in the models.

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6 hours ago, ricardo said:

Ask VW😀

I'm sure VW is fully capable of saying if he disagrees with what I post without me specifically asking - that, at least, has always been my experience in the past 😀

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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National

43,941 - 207

rate of decrease of 4% over 7 days,

decrease begins to speed up.

 

Local

Norwich rate 566.2  up 12.5% (7 days) local peak not far off.

patients in N&N 

19-10-2021                      31
18-10-2021 33
17-10-2021 28
16-10-2021 28
15-10-2021 29

Vax     

1st Dose      41,083             86.6% done                               Norwich numbers   75% 

2nd Dose     23,031             79.3% done                                                                  68.5%

Booster    264,468     total 6,706,468

In Hospital (will rise for another week yet)

 
26-10-2021                                   8,801
25-10-2021 8,707
24-10-2021 8,395
23-10-2021 8,233
22-10-2021 8,253
21-10-2021 8,277
   
   
   
   
   
   
 
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13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

43,941 - 207

rate of decrease of 4% over 7 days,

decrease begins to speed up.

 

Local

Norwich rate 566.2  up 12.5% (7 days) local peak not far off.

patients in N&N 

19-10-2021                      31
18-10-2021 33
17-10-2021 28
16-10-2021 28
15-10-2021 29

Vax     

1st Dose      41,083             86.6% done                               Norwich numbers   75% 

2nd Dose     23,031             79.3% done                                                                  68.5%

Booster    264,468     total 6,706,468

In Hospital (will rise for another week yet)

 
26-10-2021                                   8,801
25-10-2021 8,707
24-10-2021 8,395
23-10-2021 8,233
22-10-2021 8,253
21-10-2021 8,277
   
   
   
   
   
   
 

Thanks, yep definitely going in the right direction.

 

 

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Just as numbers start to fall here in the UK, we see sharp upticks in Germany, Netherlands and Belgium.

Somewhat disconcerting news. Are they entering the vax wane window?

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18 hours ago, ricardo said:

Just as numbers start to fall here in the UK, we see sharp upticks in Germany, Netherlands and Belgium.

Somewhat disconcerting news. Are they entering the vax wane window?

I don't know whether their education system has half terms like us but I did wonder about the figures for this week and whether there would be a discernible difference either up or down.

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Now the double jabbed can easily spread it at home….. I’m done with all this sh*t, it’s just getting too much now.

Edited by KernowCanary

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On 22/10/2021 at 16:14, Van wink said:

Yes thanks, have seen the Spectre update, just wondering if WBB had picked up on any other research papers indicating significant drop off around 5 months. Yes no doubt perpetual boosters will become the norm but as you quite rightly say, we dont know how long  a reasonable level of immunity lasts after the booster, my suspician is that there will be be greater longevity but we'll have to see. Trip to the Principality coming up next weekend, infection rate in Wales is the highest it has been since the start of the pandemic 😷

Hi VW

Here is a bit more from a study that has just been papered by Lancet. You will see they have shown Pfizer at 5-6 months and AZ at 4-5 months ( already lower ) and I guess the reason they have not shown 5-6 months AZ is as some of those surveys last week were close. 
image.thumb.png.42294f78ee836e64a752fb217446c85c.png

 

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52 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

Here is a bit more from a study that has just been papered by Lancet. You will see they have shown Pfizer at 5-6 months and AZ at 4-5 months ( already lower ) and I guess the reason they have not shown 5-6 months AZ is as some of those surveys last week were close. 
image.thumb.png.42294f78ee836e64a752fb217446c85c.png

 

So I assume the labs are still working on finding an even better vaccine. And maybe that will mean another booster in six months before anything is fruitful. It seems chaos will still reign for a while yet.

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47 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

So I assume the labs are still working on finding an even better vaccine. And maybe that will mean another booster in six months before anything is fruitful. It seems chaos will still reign for a while yet.

Hi KG

Nothing is certain with COVID as a Pfizer booster gets you into the high 90’s ( Israel and Portugal data ), however they are seeing the same trends already as last time after 2 months and Israel will consider dose 4 at 4 months after dose 3 if those trends carry out as per between dose 2 and 3. If you look at the Israel data you will see they got a big hit between 5 and 6 months, so won’t leave anything to chance this time round.

It is impossible to predict what COVID does next, but my concern is around December when we could be way behind with a mixture of the number of boosters that can be given and many not bothering as they don’t see why boosters are important. I see why the government are saying approaching 300,000 jabs a day, how wonderful is that, but 6 months ago we were approaching 900,000 jabs a day ( didn’t quite get there ). You have to bear in mind that there are less hubs and 1/2 the workforce as most people are back to their regular jobs, including nurses that are now recalled back to the wards. On Saturday most of us were working 7 day weeks with 12 hour shifts, either on the vaccine task force or doing their normal job Monday to Friday and vaccines at the weekend. I am finally having some time off this weekend to visit FCR on Sunday, then it’s back to 12 straight shifts. 

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2 hours ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

Here is a bit more from a study that has just been papered by Lancet. You will see they have shown Pfizer at 5-6 months and AZ at 4-5 months ( already lower ) and I guess the reason they have not shown 5-6 months AZ is as some of those surveys last week were close. 
image.thumb.png.42294f78ee836e64a752fb217446c85c.png

 

Thanks WBB

Another interesting read from Nature

https://www.icpcovid.com/sites/default/files/2021-09/Ep 175-1 COVID vaccine immunity is waning — how much does that matter__0.pdf

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2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

So I assume the labs are still working on finding an even better vaccine. And maybe that will mean another booster in six months before anything is fruitful. It seems chaos will still reign for a while yet.

Remember that the waning immunity we are talking about is immunity from infection.  What matters more is immunity from disease, especially severe disease and I am not sure that there is any evidence that this declines.

Antibody levels in blood decline, its a fact of all infection. If they didn't we would have no blood in our blood, only antibodies. But even when the antibodies are all gone the memory persists. 

I'm pretty optimistic about our jabs.   The baseline protection they give won't, I think, be going anywhere soon

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28 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Thanks.

Are Wales and Portugal just coincidental I wonder or are they relaying that real world data. It does seem strange that Wales are a week past Israel 6 months before and they are hit in the same way, whereas Portugal looked at that data and went boosters at 5 months, which seems to have worked.

Despite morally being not sure about boosters ( only 5 African countries will hit the target of 40% vaccinated by the end of the year ) based on any study I have seen so far you need to get your booster as soon as you are eligible, don’t wait around. AZ could be because mainly older people had it, but equally it could be it drops off to a far greater extent in general.

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5 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Remember that the waning immunity we are talking about is immunity from infection.  What matters more is immunity from disease, especially severe disease and I am not sure that there is any evidence that this declines.

Antibody levels in blood decline, its a fact of all infection. If they didn't we would have no blood in our blood, only antibodies. But even when the antibodies are all gone the memory persists. 

I'm pretty optimistic about our jabs.   The baseline protection they give won't, I think, be going anywhere soon

I am afraid I don’t think that’s correct. The real world data shows ( certainly in older people ) that your protection against hospitalisation and death goes exactly the same way as number of cases without a booster. Israel’s figures on the one hand are very disturbing, on the other hand very encouraging that the rest of the world get the opportunity to see what’s happening before it hits the world. Until 6 weeks ago these were theories, now they are realities, hence why I felt boosters were morally incorrect, but I now feel they are vital. 
If there is no falling immunity against hospitalisation and death then why give them and if these studies are not correct why are we having to import Pfizer at enormous cost ( 1.25% on national insurance ) when we could just boost with the cheaper AZ. 

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Until we get a delivery of a viable treatment in tablet form, which is still ongoing, this issue will continue. I’m not sure there’s going to be a short term fix, but could end up with wave after wave until natural immunity takes effect. I’m not sure I’ve seen any figures to say what the % is of catching Covid twice after having it once and what effect it has the second time!

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On 27/10/2021 at 09:48, It's Character Forming said:

Interesting BBC article here on case numbers in the UK, although it doesn't really mention comparative levels of testing which always are the first thing I think about when I see anyone talk about the UK having higher case numbers than other European countries.  Also it fails to mention the surprising way Covid has developed in the UK since restrictions were removed in mid-July, i.e. the totally unexpected decline in cases that followed in England, etc.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58954793?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

 

Also it's from a few days back, so doesn't discuss the fact that case numbers may have now peaked on the latest wavelet of infections.  Has "wavelet" always been a word or has it just appeared to describe a short-lived period of increase in Covid infections ?

Just another stupid word to add the MSM Covid Buzzwords Dictionary, up there with “Covidiot” and “Mingling”, which now seems to mean these days “Socialising with others when you shouldn’t”…….

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34 minutes ago, Indy said:

Until we get a delivery of a viable treatment in tablet form, which is still ongoing, this issue will continue. I’m not sure there’s going to be a short term fix, but could end up with wave after wave until natural immunity takes effect. I’m not sure I’ve seen any figures to say what the % is of catching Covid twice after having it once and what effect it has the second time!

Hi Indy

I think there is a tablet just out of trials that seems to cut hospitalisation by 1/3 for those at higher risk, taken as soon as you are positive. The richer nations have been queueing up to order, but they are insisting on giving it to the poorer unvaccinated countries first.

VW and others may correct me here but my understanding is your best immunity is 1st dose, 2nd dose, booster and getting it. Everything I have read however seems to suggest your immunity from catching it lasts around 3 months, just like our other similar friend the common cold. My colleagues who work on icu tell me Delta is a nasty little beast especially for the unvaccinated. Israel also shows that Delta is a nasty beast to those whose immunity is beginning to wane from vaccine protection. Catching it twice now seems quite common and you hear of lots of people infected for a 3rd time.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

I am afraid I don’t think that’s correct. The real world data shows ( certainly in older people ) that your protection against hospitalisation and death goes exactly the same way as number of cases without a booster. Israel’s figures on the one hand are very disturbing, on the other hand very encouraging that the rest of the world get the opportunity to see what’s happening before it hits the world. Until 6 weeks ago these were theories, now they are realities, hence why I felt boosters were morally incorrect, but I now feel they are vital. 
If there is no falling immunity against hospitalisation and death then why give them and if these studies are not correct why are we having to import Pfizer at enormous cost ( 1.25% on national insurance ) when we could just boost with the cheaper AZ. 

Inthibk you are partially correct:  a strong memory response combined with high levels of antibodies in circulation are better than memory alone but i think you underestimate the other immune components.

Besides which ans whatever the truth I frankly don't want to believe a theory that says that memory wanes as quickly as antibody levels as it is a theory that condemns millions to an early demise and the rest to an endless cycle of jabs 

The Pfizer or AZ thing i think is a bit of a red herring. AZ is doing a great job in preventing deaths and serious illness but pfizer gives a very strong b cell/antibody  response and we can more easily measure antibodies than t cells. So, as with all things, we have made important that which we can easily measure at the expense of measuring what is most important. 

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I hope you are right but unfortunately Israel and Portugal with real life data as opposed to studies and guesswork seem to show a picture that gives a different picture. Israel’s hospital and deaths go in the normal cycle ( in this case vaccinated people ) of case numbers going up substantially, followed by hospitalisation 10 days later and deaths 7 days after that. You then have Portugal who followed that data and went early ( no rises yet ) and Wales who didn’t following what happened in Israel. There is no real life data for AZ just those studies and I suppose we can hope AZ carries on protecting against hospitalisation and deaths and if there is the U.K. really need to come out and say what it is.

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10 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Inthibk you are partially correct:  a strong memory response combined with high levels of antibodies in circulation are better than memory alone but i think you underestimate the other immune components.

Besides which ans whatever the truth I frankly don't want to believe a theory that says that memory wanes as quickly as antibody levels as it is a theory that condemns millions to an early demise and the rest to an endless cycle of jabs 

The Pfizer or AZ thing i think is a bit of a red herring. AZ is doing a great job in preventing deaths and serious illness but pfizer gives a very strong b cell/antibody  response and we can more easily measure antibodies than t cells. So, as with all things, we have made important that which we can easily measure at the expense of measuring what is most important. 

 

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

I hope you are right but unfortunately Israel and Portugal with real life data as opposed to studies and guesswork seem to show a picture that gives a different picture. Israel’s hospital and deaths go in the normal cycle ( in this case vaccinated people ) of case numbers going up substantially, followed by hospitalization 10 days later and deaths 7 days after that. You then have Portugal who followed that data and went early ( no rises yet ) and Wales who didn’t following what happened in Israel. There is no real life data for AZ just those studies and I suppose we can hope AZ carries on protecting against hospitalisation and deaths and if there is the U.K. really need to come out and say what it is.

 

Guys - I'd 'hoped' or my instinct was that protection (whether by vaccine or infection) was longer lasting (or dropped less perilously) than the recent real life data appears to currently show. We can argue about the mechanisms by all means but the real question is what to do about it? Clearly a large number of double-vaxers are being brought back into play by the virus much much quicker than we would of wished, plus it appears they can be as infectious in the early days as non-vaccinated. In short the virus is running rings round us and our wishful thinking.

What this whole debacle shows is that if you give this virus an inch it will take a mile. We have sadly in the UK thrown caution to the wind (some of us thinking 'lucky' trying to over-read sudden 'drops' in the last few days PCR data as opposed to ONS or even Zoe) as opposed to making tough decisions. We shouldn't base public health policy on 'Are you feeling lucky' machismo.

What I would point out is that presently, the main source of (re) infection appears to be in the young (hence a small possible hiatus in the half term) - being largely or incompletely vaccinated, and so the full effects of waning resistance in their elders is likely not as yet showing in the data - but all the red lights are clearly flashing and alarms sounding.

The obvious, sensible, adult thing to do is to hurry up all the boosters and vaccinations BUT given the unknowns reintroduce the light 'Plan B ' measures as of yesterday to slow progression. Anything else is now bordering on the criminally negligent.

One last passing thought. Have people considered that actually the masks and social distancing may actually be a much stronger effect than we realize in limiting spread? We always have these measures in conjunction with the vaccines (even much discussed Israel recently).

Anyway - some ONS data today will give truer picture without the froth.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

 

Guys - I'd 'hoped' or my instinct was that protection (whether by vaccine or infection) was longer lasting (or dropped less perilously) than the recent real life data appears to currently show. We can argue about the mechanisms by all means but the real question is what to do about it? Clearly a large number of double-vaxers are being brought back into play by the virus much much quicker than we would of wished, plus it appears they can be as infectious in the early days as non-vaccinated. In short the virus is running rings round us and our wishful thinking.

What this whole debacle shows is that if you give this virus an inch it will take a mile. We have sadly in the UK thrown caution to the wind (some of us thinking 'lucky' trying to over-read sudden 'drops' in the last few days PCR data as opposed to ONS or even Zoe) as opposed to making tough decisions. We shouldn't base public health policy on 'Are you feeling lucky' machismo.

What I would point out is that presently, the main source of (re) infection appears to be in the young (hence a small possible hiatus in the half term) - being largely or incompletely vaccinated, and so the full effects of waning resistance in their elders is likely not as yet showing in the data - but all the red lights are clearly flashing and alarms sounding.

The obvious, sensible, adult thing to do is to hurry up all the boosters and vaccinations BUT given the unknowns reintroduce the light 'Plan B ' measures as of yesterday to slow progression. Anything else is now bordering on the criminally negligent.

One last passing thought. Have people considered that actually the masks and social distancing may actually be a much stronger effect than we realize in limiting spread? We always have these measures in conjunction with the vaccines (even much discussed Israel recently).

Anyway - some ONS data today will give truer picture without the froth.

Important to remember today's ONS numbers relate back to a period when daily PCR case numbers were increasing in England, so if the ONS numbers also show increased case levels, that would support the PCR data, not contradict it. 

 

ONS data for the past week, when we've seen the daily PCR numbers peak and start to fall, won't come out for some time.  AFAIR the ONS data and the PCR data which relate to the same time periods have consistently shown the trend in infections going the same way.  It's just that sometimes when daily case numbers have climbed to a peak and started to fall, people have seized on some increasing ONS numbers which came out after the peak but related to the period before the peak.  Obviously we never have 100% certainty until well after the event (not even then, actually) but at the moment I'm confident the current decline in PCR daily cases reflects an actual decline in the real world and will be supported by the relevant ONS numbers when they eventually come out.

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45 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Important to remember today's ONS numbers relate back to a period when daily PCR case numbers were increasing in England, so if the ONS numbers also show increased case levels, that would support the PCR data, not contradict it. 

 

ONS data for the past week, when we've seen the daily PCR numbers peak and start to fall, won't come out for some time.  AFAIR the ONS data and the PCR data which relate to the same time periods have consistently shown the trend in infections going the same way.  It's just that sometimes when daily case numbers have climbed to a peak and started to fall, people have seized on some increasing ONS numbers which came out after the peak but related to the period before the peak.  Obviously we never have 100% certainty until well after the event (not even then, actually) but at the moment I'm confident the current decline in PCR daily cases reflects an actual decline in the real world and will be supported by the relevant ONS numbers when they eventually come out.

Zoe was still going up as of yesterday - may have slowed certainly. I can see lots of reasons why PCR tests might wobble around with the kids out - its very well known that they are off by a factor of 2 anyway and are only useful for 'headline' figures!

Edited by Emma Harrison

  1. Posted at 12:2012:20

    BREAKINGHighest level of infections ever reported across UK

    Estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey suggest that 1.3 million people in the UK would test positive for coronavirus in the week ending 22 October, the highest number since records began.

    This is 1.9% of the population – or one in 55 people – up from one in 60 last week.

    The ONS say the trend for estimated Covid-19 infections increased across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    The number of people estimated to be testing positive for Covid:

    • England: One in 50 v one in 55 last week
    • Wales: One in 40 v one in 45 last week
    • Northern Ireland: One in 75 v one in 130 last week
    • Scotland: One in 75 v one in 90 last week

    According to the latest daily figures from the government, cases have been falling this week with 295,549 testing positive in the last seven days, a drop of 9.8%.

Edited by Yellow Fever
ONS today. UP up and Up.!

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16 hours ago, Well b back said:

Hi KG

Nothing is certain with COVID as a Pfizer booster gets you into the high 90’s ( Israel and Portugal data ), however they are seeing the same trends already as last time after 2 months and Israel will consider dose 4 at 4 months after dose 3 if those trends carry out as per between dose 2 and 3. If you look at the Israel data you will see they got a big hit between 5 and 6 months, so won’t leave anything to chance this time round.

It is impossible to predict what COVID does next, but my concern is around December when we could be way behind with a mixture of the number of boosters that can be given and many not bothering as they don’t see why boosters are important. I see why the government are saying approaching 300,000 jabs a day, how wonderful is that, but 6 months ago we were approaching 900,000 jabs a day ( didn’t quite get there ). You have to bear in mind that there are less hubs and 1/2 the workforce as most people are back to their regular jobs, including nurses that are now recalled back to the wards. On Saturday most of us were working 7 day weeks with 12 hour shifts, either on the vaccine task force or doing their normal job Monday to Friday and vaccines at the weekend. I am finally having some time off this weekend to visit FCR on Sunday, then it’s back to 12 straight shifts. 

Thanks for all your good work WBB. Never mind people praising the Government. All they did was make decisions. Some not good obviously.

Looking at all the people making expert statements at the moment, the confusion still reigns in my head. Yes, we have to live with it the same as any other recurring virus. However, we have never offered anyone under pensionable age, a winter jab for all the other flu viruses. And this one will just be another addition to the growing list.

SO do we now offer every soul a winter jab? If so, the logistics of it say that the Government could not keep relying on goodwill to administer it. It would then require staffing or using outside agencies such as Boots who provide my winter flu jab.

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Zoe was still going up as of yesterday - may have slowed certainly. I can see lots of reasons why PCR tests might wobble around with the kids out - its very well known that they are off by a factor of 2 anyway and are only useful for 'headline' figures!

Edited by Emma Harrison

  1. Posted at 12:2012:20

    BREAKINGHighest level of infections ever reported across UK

    Estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey suggest that 1.3 million people in the UK would test positive for coronavirus in the week ending 22 October, the highest number since records began.

    This is 1.9% of the population – or one in 55 people – up from one in 60 last week.

    The ONS say the trend for estimated Covid-19 infections increased across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    The number of people estimated to be testing positive for Covid:

    • England: One in 50 v one in 55 last week
    • Wales: One in 40 v one in 45 last week
    • Northern Ireland: One in 75 v one in 130 last week
    • Scotland: One in 75 v one in 90 last week

    According to the latest daily figures from the government, cases have been falling this week with 295,549 testing positive in the last seven days, a drop of 9.8%.

Exactly as I expected.  ONS numbers showing cases were rising in the week ending 22 October.  It seems likely cases peaked around a week ago and are now falling again in England.  The ONS numbers next week and the week after will hopefully confirm this, when they are showing data for this week, but these numbers can't tell us anything about whether we've now passed the peak or not, they're from an earlier period.  In the meantime, these ONS numbers have merely confirmed what was already clear from the daily PCR test data - which also showed rising case numbers then.

 

NB it's important to remember a further reason why ONS data lags behind is that the ONS data pick up the number of people (based on a random sample) with a case of Covid at the time, i.e. it's a snapshot and shows people who have an infection, but it may be at the start or end of the infection cycle.  Whereas the PCR tests happen when people get symptoms and take the test, which will therefore mean they tend to be earlier on in the infection cycle.  Hence the ONS survey lags further behind.

 

As for Zoe, I still report my health state on it every few days, but I've pretty much lost faith with it - they've had to recalibrate it every time it was showing a different outcome from the other data sources.  Also I've never got to the bottom of how up to date the Zoe information is.  So I pay it very little attention now.

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I don’t like to be negative @It's Character Forming but this week is not a good week for looking at the official results as the kids have not been getting their 2 tests per week picking up the a symptomatic cases. They may therefore be accurate or miles out.

Good or bad we will know where we are at the end of next week.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

I don’t like to be negative @It's Character Forming but this week is not a good week for looking at the official results as the kids have not been getting their 2 tests per week picking up the a symptomatic cases. They may therefore be accurate or miles out.

Good or bad we will know where we are at the end of next week.

Thanks WBB - actually Zoe dropped very very slightly today which is good.

What I'm trying to do is to stop people running away with a few odd results either way. Have some patience and let's see what's really happening with random sampling data. The 'hopeful' argument from some seems to be that Covid has peaked (but even the most LSH optimistic model suggests November - generally the pack of models have a peak much much later). It's just too much of coincidence that this 'drop' has coincided with schools out to say Covid is in retreat.

However, there should be a lull or pause or slowdown  in infections this week with the kids out (are they out in Scotland - arh we're back last week and ONS well got badly worse there?) but it will likely pick up again next week - may even be a 'catch-up effect'. So what we have is likely a pause but AMPLIFIED in the PCR by lack of testing giving an artificial overdone dip - much the same happened last July which although a small dip was in the eventual ONS data it was nothing at all like that in PCR test data!

As per the Sage reports and models VW put up - they clearly only take notice of the ONS data to inform them!

Edited by Yellow Fever
Added Scotland - kids back last week and well Scotland seems to have go a lot worse at week face value on ONS. Oh dashboard today - case down 12.7% (43.4K) , tests down 10.8% (last seven days)

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