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27 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Cases peak and fall in different areas at different times. This chart is a bit of a dogs breakfast but shows what is happening.

Image

Fascinating chart Ricardo.

I remember reading somewhere that in reality its only a few 'super spreaders' people that are the problem. Many of us, even if infected don't go on to infect large numbers.

So I guess you've been to Corby, Kettering, Trafford and Wellingborough and home via Ipswich along the A14? Perhaps it wasn't you in Trafford - bit out of the way.😉

As to complacency that has been well noted/commented in several articles not helped by Johnson's previous attitude. 

 

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

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1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Fascinating chart Ricardo.

I remember reading somewhere that in reality its only a few 'super spreaders' people that are the problem. Many of us, even if infected don't go on to to infect large number.

So I guess you've been to Corby, Kettering, Trafford and Wellingborough and home via Ipswich along the A14? Perhaps it wasn't you in Trafford - bit out of the way.😉

As to complacency that has been well noted/commented in several articles not helped by Johnson's previous attitude. 

 

 

Perhaps 1p5wich supporters planning away trips in the lower leagues.

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Just now, ricardo said:

Perhaps 1p5wich supporters planning away trips in the lower leagues.

Brilliant 🏐.  Clearly the correct explanation.

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18 hours ago, Well b back said:

It certainly is WBB. It has been like this for some time now. Cornwall may well have the oldest per capita population. We have GP services that just refer all the time because they are not allowing anyone into the surgeries. And the booking system is through Klinik which is online and unlikely to be used by a large proportion of the population.

The local news said 29 ambulances outside waiting to unload and in a day a waste of 800 hours by ambulance staff just sitting there and of course a worrying time for those waiting for an ambulance.

And Treliske, the main hospital in the county in Truro is regularly at the very bottom of the league table. I know that full well as the last time I was there, nobody knew of my appointment and nobody could find my notes. It may not be the medical side but the admin is not fit for purpose. A friend of ours died of sepsis having been sent home with just an iron deficiency.

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In the west country we now have the highest case of covid in the country. This is due a lab in Wolverhampton that make the PCR Test have made a bad shipment so even if you had covid, it came up a negative. So everyone went out and about as normal and spread it to others  !

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255k booster and third primary jabs done yesterday.👍

Finally cracking on.

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7 hours ago, Van wink said:

Do you have a reference for the rapid drop off after 5 months WBB, I am aware of fading immunity but not seen anything  quite as clear as that but have heard that some are considering it. Vice chair of JVCI was on Today this morning and he has a view that a booster at six months is a sweet spot, whatever he means by that. 

There was a report fairly recently VW (data actually derived from good sample size via Zoe).

'Drop off' is 4-5 months apparently (AZ), but similar to Pfizer.  Perhaps therefore this means perpetual boosters? Unless the booster gives an even longer lasting protection?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/covid-jab-protection-wanes-within-six-months-uk-researchers-2021-08-25/

Edited by sonyc

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

255k booster and third primary jabs done yesterday.👍

Finally cracking on.

Still says I have to wait on the NHS site. 6 months and one week. Why one week?

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23 minutes ago, sonyc said:

There was a report fairly recently VW (data actually derived from good sample size via Zoe).

'Drop off' is 4-5 months apparently (AZ), but similar to Pfizer.  Perhaps therefore this means perpetual boosters? Unless the booster gives an even longer lasting protection?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/covid-jab-protection-wanes-within-six-months-uk-researchers-2021-08-25/

Yes thanks, have seen the Spectre update, just wondering if WBB had picked up on any other research papers indicating significant drop off around 5 months. Yes no doubt perpetual boosters will become the norm but as you quite rightly say, we dont know how long  a reasonable level of immunity lasts after the booster, my suspician is that there will be be greater longevity but we'll have to see. Trip to the Principality coming up next weekend, infection rate in Wales is the highest it has been since the start of the pandemic 😷

Edited by Van wink
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National

49,298  - 180

rate of increase of 18.1% over 7 days,

 

Local

Norwich rate 490.9  up 40.8% (7 days) a big rise locally continies.

patients in N&N 

19-10-2021                                 31
18-10-2021 33
17-10-2021 28
16-10-2021 28
15-10-2021 29
14-10-2021 28
13-10-2021 27
12-10-2021 29
 
   
   
   
   

Vax      

1st Dose      48,732             86.3% done                               Norwich numbers   75% 

2nd Dose     28,628             79.1% done                                                                  68.5%

 

In Hospital (continuing to edge up)

21-10-2021                               8,238
20-10-2021 8,170
19-10-2021 7,924
18-10-2021 7,785
17-10-2021 7,420
16-10-2021 7,153
15-10-2021 7,130
14-10-2021 7,124
Edited by ricardo

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8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Trip to the Principality coming up next weekend, infection rate in Wales is the highest it has been since the start of the pandemic

Postponed mine but had 5 days in Norfolk instead. Visited lots of ancestral spots there at the same time. Such a concentration of many families all along the border going back to 1600s.

Missed going to Pembrokeshire and the Valleys but it won't be long I don't think. After us not going anywhere much in 2 years I'm at least more confident now that one can travel and mix a bit! 

Very strange times in a way. If it hadn't been for the pandemic I wouldn't be as much reading online! 

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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

255k booster and third primary jabs done yesterday.👍

Finally cracking on.

Haven’t seen daily figures like that in a long time as far as the jabs are concerned.

Great stuff.

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41 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

Haven’t seen daily figures like that in a long time as far as the jabs are concerned.

Great stuff.

The boosters have been at around 200k a day for two weeks now

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Postponed mine but had 5 days in Norfolk instead. Visited lots of ancestral spots there at the same time. Such a concentration of many families all along the border going back to 1600s.

Missed going to Pembrokeshire and the Valleys but it won't be long I don't think. After us not going anywhere much in 2 years I'm at least more confident now that one can travel and mix a bit! 

Very strange times in a way. If it hadn't been for the pandemic I wouldn't be as much reading online! 

I'm going to see the All Blacks give our boys a bit of a run around, looking at todays figures I'll potentially be in the stadium with at least 1000 infected people. Makes you think doesn't it. Still trying to rationalise how much reliance I can put on the restrictions currently in force, you need a cover passport or neg test to get in.

Edited by Van wink

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3 hours ago, ricardo said:

255k booster and third primary jabs done yesterday.👍

Finally cracking on.

Bit greedy of you!

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Hi VW

The latest efficacy rates are getting quoted at 20 weeks, the rates vary depending on which report you read. If you look as well at real world data you will see when Israel hit a problem and how Wales have followed in their footsteps. As I understand it ( after hearing the Israeli man in charge on Peston ) Israel are possibly planning for dose 4. You must remember as well they used Pfizer, whereas a lot of our older citizens had AstraZeneca ( and you know my love for Andrew, Sarah and co ). Here is a bit quoting a Lancet report, so not a dodgy website. I have seen AstraZeneca being quoted as low as 47% after 20 weeks and Pfizer has been as high as 77% at the same time. It is impossible to get 100% accurate figures as this is such a new disease, but wether you look at real world data, or any data studies, they will all show you get your booster as the longer you leave it ( and the older you are ) the more risk you have of catching it, and then following on the more chance you have of hospitalisation and of course death. Have a look at Israeli data, cases, hospitalisations and deaths you will see the 5 month effect.

Our findings support recommendations from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) that adults who are clinically vulnerable, those aged 70 years or over, and all residents of care homes for older adults should be prioritised for booster doses.  In addition, those who were vaccinated with the Astra Zeneca vaccine, including most care home residents, are likely to have much lower antibody levels than those vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine, so this may also need to be considered when deciding who takes priority.

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5 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

The boosters have been at around 200k a day for two weeks now

4 weeks in the government have finally launched a campaign to get publicity out on the boosters, strangely enough more people are now coming forward. 6 million now to catch up, let’s hope we can put it right.

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48 minutes ago, Well b back said:

4 weeks in the government have finally launched a campaign to get publicity out on the boosters, strangely enough more people are now coming forward. 6 million now to catch up, let’s hope we can put it right.

Awful commercial though, just what is it with the glowing outlines round people’s bodies to illustrate immunity?.

Covid commercials should have been to the point, like the AIDS ones. People took that seriously as a result. Covid ad-break campaigns are like cringe gimmicks in comparison.

 

Edited by KernowCanary
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8 hours ago, Well b back said:

@Van wink

This shows Israel data watch how cases start to rise after 5 months and cases drop after boosters and they are not that highly vaccinated as a % of population

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

Thanks WBB and for the earlier response. I have been aware of the drop off for quite sometime but was interested in the data you were referring to so that’s very helpful. Studies are going to get a lot more complex as this progresses, we don’t now just have the initial variables of vaccine type, sex, ethnicity, age etc but throwing in potential previous infection,  which variant was the infection from, different timing regimes of administering, boosters and  boosting with different vaccines from the original etc etc ……the whole study is getting far more complex.

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By the Governments own admission, the UK's position as the worst performing country in terms of covid infections and deaths is precisely what they expected and planned for:

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/7889938/rishi-sunak-lockdown-covid-boosters-winter-warning/

"Speaking at a vaccine centre in London, the PM today insisted that the surge of the virus was "always predicted" by scientists and is "fully in line with" what they expected.

RISING CASES

He said the most important thing people can do is come forward for their booster jabs.

Boris said: "Our autumn and winter plan always predicted that cases would rise around about now. We’re certainly seeing that in the numbers.

"We’re seeing high levels of infection, but they’re not outside the parameters of what was predicted or what we thought we’d see."

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33 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Fcuk off and amuse yourself with Swindon, you have nothing to contribute on here.

Oh dear! Do you have a poll to "support" that? Perhaps you should read the articles you utter joke.

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Neighbours both sides now have Covid.

Just anecdotal.

Edited by Yellow Fever
Why can't we have an English spell checker please ?

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1 hour ago, horsefly said:

By the Governments own admission, the UK's position as the worst performing country in terms of covid infections and deaths is precisely what they expected and planned for:

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/7889938/rishi-sunak-lockdown-covid-boosters-winter-warning/

"Speaking at a vaccine centre in London, the PM today insisted that the surge of the virus was "always predicted" by scientists and is "fully in line with" what they expected.

RISING CASES

He said the most important thing people can do is come forward for their booster jabs.

Boris said: "Our autumn and winter plan always predicted that cases would rise around about now. We’re certainly seeing that in the numbers.

"We’re seeing high levels of infection, but they’re not outside the parameters of what was predicted or what we thought we’d see."

 

I saw that and also his off the cuff comments on masks (JRM - Ok with those you 'know')

I just came to the conclusion that .

a). Johnson (Sunak also) now 'own' it  - same as the HGV and supply chain crisis - the 200 odd somewhat avoidable deaths a day (or as someone put it a 9/11 every 2 weeks) is all worth it and as per plan!

b). He's making it up as he goes along.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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43 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Fcuk off and amuse yourself with Swindon, you have nothing to contribute on here.

I share your exasperation with some posters! SC is a comedy act I'm sure.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Fcuk off and amuse yourself with Swindon, you have nothing to contribute on here.

Aren't you shooting the messenger here??

Good Law Project are the very opposite of Johnson in that they are always very sure of their facts before they say anything, and from memory I think they have won every time they've ended up in court with the Government.

You may not like the message but it is unquestionably true however unpalatable you find it.

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