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27 minutes ago, Indy said:

This is of course one of the biggest challenges to humanity, the fact we cannot accept death, we need to hold people on to life when quality has long gone! We are killing the planet and when nature fights back we try to stay ahead as you say. Reality is we are very fragile, we will die and ultimately nature will kill us off as a species eventually.

I agree Indy - but perhaps in an odd manner I was trying to say that we don't have ALL the answers to a Covid 'exit' and it may well be that things take a long time to go back to normal with Covid around. Get used to it. As a species we are not designed to live in such high densities as we do but in more diffuse smaller groups where such diseases would by nature/isolation be more self-limiting. Our humongous populations and global travel means we can expect such pandemics and its totally naive to think that we won't need to change our ways to limit the risks. SARS, MERs were ample warning. Nature has ways to deal with such species - climate change is another way of applying some 'negative' feedback on us!  

All that said I have a high degree of confidence that we can engineer workable solutions given my background but not carefree miracles! Some of us will be able to tell tall stories to our grand-children of the hedonistic life before Covid (and global warming).

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2 hours ago, Aggy said:

Purely out of interest, do you have the hospital admission figures this year compared to September/October in years pre-covid?

Well I'd be prepared to take a wild guess and say that pre-Covid the hospital admissions for Covid were zero! Currently we have nearly 8k Covid patients in hospital which actually displace considerably more than 8k of 'normal' patients since Covid patients require more space and resources both physical and human than the ‘usuals’.

Our hospital capacity is also impacted by another key factor of which I am certain - pre-Covid we had more doctors and nurses than we do now, and we also had lower sickness absence levels amongst doctors and nurses than we do now.

The result of this Covid squeeze is that we have hospital waiting lists of around 5.5 million and rising rapidly (from 0.6m in 2019) and waiting list times are now measured in years rather than weeks.

The backlog is currently projected to almost triple 14 million by next spring - @It's Character Forming apparently believes that this is ‘sustainable’ and I’m guessing that you probably agree with him – so my question to you is how long do you think it is sustainable for??

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21 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Well I'd be prepared to take a wild guess and say that pre-Covid the hospital admissions for Covid were zero! Currently we have nearly 8k Covid patients in hospital which actually displace considerably more than 8k of 'normal' patients since Covid patients require more space and resources both physical and human than the ‘usuals’.

 

Our hospital capacity is also impacted by another key factor of which I am certain - pre-Covid we had more doctors and nurses than we do now, and we also had lower sickness absence levels amongst doctors and nurses than we do now.

 

The result of this Covid squeeze is that we have hospital waiting lists of around 5.5 million and rising rapidly (from 0.6m in 2019) and waiting list times are now measured in years rather than weeks.

 

The backlog is currently projected to almost triple 14 million by next spring - @It's Character Forming apparently believes that this is ‘sustainable’ and I’m guessing that you probably agree with him – so my question to you is how long do you think it is sustainable for??

 

I wasn’t really trying to make a point, more just asking if you had the figures. Do you not? What would be a level of admissions that’s not “too high” though if you don’t even know how many people we normally have in hospitals at this time of year?

Edited by Aggy

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21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I agree Indy - but perhaps in an odd manner I was trying to say that we don't have ALL the answers to a Covid 'exit' and it may well be that things take a long time to go back to normal with Covid around. Get used to it. As a species we are not designed to live in such high densities as we do but in more diffuse smaller groups where such diseases would by nature/isolation be more self-limiting. Our humongous populations and global travel means we can expect such pandemics and its totally naive to think that we won't need to change our ways to limit the risks. SARS, MERs were ample warning. Nature has ways to deal with such species - climate change is another way of applying some 'negative' feedback on us!  

All that said I have a high degree of confidence that we can engineer workable solutions given my background but not carefree miracles! Some of us will be able to tell tall stories to our grand-children of the hedonistic life before Covid (and global warming).

I think it depends what you mean by ‘normal’. Other than that I work at home two or three days a week and save on overpriced sandwiches for lunch, I can’t say that my life is now any different than it was pre-covid. And I’m not just saying that to be argumentative, it just isn’t. I go into the office. I go to the cinema. I meet friends for food and drink. I can go on holiday now in the same way I could before (to most places that I’d likely go anyway). If I was so inclined, I could go dancing on tables in clubs in groups of as many people as I want. I can go into shops. I can even see my family inside.

What do we need to get used to? 

I think we’re at risk of overblowing it. Yes lots of people died and the debate about whether it could have been handled differently will rumble on and on. But we’ve always had pandemics, and will continue to do so. We’ve had much worse than covid before - the Black Death wiped out half the population of Europe when it was far less densely populated than it is now, the population was significantly less humongous, and we didn’t have planes or trains or cars. We might have much worse in the future (or we might not, or not for many centuries).
 

No doubt people were saying much the same as you after the Spanish flu and for whatever reason we haven’t had anything as bad as that for a century since. Some here and there that were bad but your reference to SARS and MERS as ample warning seems to forget that there have been similar ample warnings for ever and not all of them continue to escalate into bigger disasters year after year ad infinitum. Likewise, we had far far worse than either of those (and than covid) well before any of the factors you mention were relevant. That’s just life.

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Just now, Aggy said:

I wasn’t really trying to make a point, more just asking if you had the figures. Do you not? What would be a level of admissions that’s not “too high” though if you don’t even know how many people we normally have in hospitals at this time of year?

I was trying to point out that the absolute level of admissions is, in isolation, fairly irrelevent - as in most areas of life when demand and supply get completely out of kilter problems tend to arise.

In the case of our health system demand and supply is wildly out of kilter and the major cause of that is Covid infection which is still rising. I don't think that is a sustainable position but maybe I am wrong - let's see what happens as many millions more are denied the treatment they need this winter.

 

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Just now, Creative Midfielder said:

I was trying to point out that the absolute level of admissions is, in isolation, fairly irrelevent - as in most areas of life when demand and supply get completely out of kilter problems tend to arise.

In the case of our health system demand and supply is wildly out of kilter and the major cause of that is Covid infection which is still rising. I don't think that is a sustainable position but maybe I am wrong - let's see what happens as many millions more are denied the treatment they need this winter.

 

How do you know it’s out of kilter though if you haven’t got the pre-covid figures? 

Ignoring that point though, waiting lists were increasing year on year before covid. Far more to do with an ever aging society and a lack of funding in healthcare. Covid has accelerated the increase, but I expect we’d have had the current waiting lengths in 2023 or so even if we hadn’t had covid. Many millions were denied treatment for many many months in 2019. We didn’t lock down then.

We have for many years, especially in the winter, pushed non urgent treatment back to be able to carry out urgent surgery and have beds for critical care free. We didn’t lock down then.

We’ve had nowhere near enough funding in healthcare and later life treatment/living/facilities for decades. More people seem to now be aware of it as a result of covid, but it was a mess in 2019 too and has been for years. Hospitals are close to being overwhelmed every year. People get turned away from one hospital and moved to another because there aren’t beds. This all happened in 2019. We didn’t lock down then.

So is it sustainable currently? Well, it wasn’t sustainable in 2019.

But unless we’re at a point where people can’t get emergency life saving treatment, then the answer isn’t lockdowns and restrictions. It’s investing properly in health and social care.

 

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Further to my post yesterday dealing with why UK's daily Covid cases are much higher than all our neighbouring  countries and indeed much of Europe, i read a Bloomberg article that further shows more reasons why this is the case. I mentioned the almost total lack of wearing face coverings by the general population here, which is certainly one factor, but its really a selection of reasons why we are where we are.

We vaxxed a good deal earlier than rest of Europe, so the vax protection has waned earlier over time than on the continent.

Government policy in July, just basically saying to the populace "ok go back to normality, vax is enough  and need nothing more".

Our population density is 2nd highest in Europe of main nations, only Netherlands is higher.

We have tested a hugely higher amount than any other nation in Europe, maybe Denmark excepted.

These higher amounts of testings include schools and hospitals, no other nation comes close to the UK testings.

"That" Labs 43k negative send outs mistake...it speaks for itself.

Once again, its the UK starting to see the growth of yet another variant, the Delta Plus, of course the perfect breeding ground considering all of the above.

There could be other less obvious reasons but the ones above  by themselves do help to show that its a fair number of things put together and here we are...i dunno, this island race of ours always seemingly does things differently to rest of Europe...nothing ever changes does it...we are in Europe but not part of it...or should that be part of Europe but not in it..whatever. Maybe Covid  even itself has become somewhat different to the rest of Europe to..certainly the stats relating to Covid usually has us bucking the trend in Europe.

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6 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Further to my post yesterday dealing with why UK's daily Covid cases are much higher than all our neighbouring  countries and indeed much of Europe, i read a Bloomberg article that further shows more reasons why this is the case. I mentioned the almost total lack of wearing face coverings by the general population here, which is certainly one factor, but its really a selection of reasons why we are where we are.

We vaxxed a good deal earlier than rest of Europe, so the vax protection has waned earlier over time than on the continent.

Government policy in July, just basically saying to the populace "ok go back to normality, vax is enough  and need nothing more".

Our population density is 2nd highest in Europe of main nations, only Netherlands is higher.

We have tested a hugely higher amount than any other nation in Europe, maybe Denmark excepted.

These higher amounts of testings include schools and hospitals, no other nation comes close to the UK testings.

"That" Labs 43k negative send outs mistake...it speaks for itself.

Once again, its the UK starting to see the growth of yet another variant, the Delta Plus, of course the perfect breeding ground considering all of the above.

There could be other less obvious reasons but the ones above  by themselves do help to show that its a fair number of things put together and here we are...i dunno, this island race of ours always seemingly does things differently to rest of Europe...nothing ever changes does it...we are in Europe but not part of it...or should that be part of Europe but not in it..whatever. Maybe Covid  even itself has become somewhat different to the rest of Europe to..certainly the stats relating to Covid usually has us bucking the trend in Europe.

Agree with most of that - the missing  43K likely 'positives'.....

However - Watching the news this morning its deja vu from last year. NHS, Scientists, Sage and Indy Sage members all calling for plan B (Basically masks) to save or delay even harsher restrictions.

Government sticks its head in the sand and says no.

So apart from all the valid points made above the overriding one is as usual this government's incompetence.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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14 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Of course it doesn't specify nationality either.

speaking of which, I'm sure there was one country at the euros who vaccinated all their players pre tournament? can't remember who it was though.

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1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

Carry on Covid.

 

For Carry On you could also substitute Blackadder 4:

 

 

IMG_20211020_111516.jpg

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8 hours ago, Essjayess said:

These higher amounts of testings include schools and hospitals

We are testing a lot but the increase in rates is not always correlating. 

Something else is happening with the current rate of increase. 

Whatever peoples' thoughts are on Covid (and they have all been laid out in these pages on the thread) I think we all ought to be worried about the pressure on the NHS and everyone working in hospitals as well as everyone waiting to have medical procedures, treatments or long awaited operations.

This is an incredibly serious situation (it appears to me anyway). We've heard this morning though that government policy is "working". Wonder what 'not working' might look like? 

Worrying times. Let's all hope those increased rates do not lead to hospitalisation rates again rising. They appear flat at present at least.

In my area the number of infections is also dropping sharply for the last week (Zoe) but I'm unsure if Zoe leads the way as a trend indicator anymore. If it does then at least a positive sign (living in a denser metropolitan area you'd possibly expect higher rates).

IMG_20211020_111533.jpg

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

We are testing a lot but the increase in rates is not always correlating. 

Something else is happening with the current rate of increase. 

Whatever peoples' thoughts are on Covid (and they have all been laid out in these pages on the thread) I think we all ought to be worried about the pressure on the NHS and everyone working in hospitals as well as everyone waiting to have medical procedures, treatments or long awaited operations.

This is an incredibly serious situation (it appears to me anyway). We've heard this morning though that government policy is "working". Wonder what 'not working' might look like? 

Worrying times. Let's all hope those increased rates do not lead to hospitalisation rates again rising. They appear flat at present at least.

In my area the number of infections is also dropping sharply for the last week (Zoe) but I'm unsure if Zoe leads the way as a trend indicator anymore. If it does then at least a positive sign (living in a denser metropolitan area you'd possibly expect higher rates).

IMG_20211020_111533.jpg

Thanks SC. You mention the same thing I noted several days ago. Confirmed PCR rates rising but recently number of tests falling. Something else is also going on. My guess would be that people are only reluctantly getting tested when they feel they really have too - putting down Covid like symptoms to colds etc. After-all,  in gross error the politicians and media have until very recently been telling everybody it all OK, party as normal and who after all still wants to quarantine for 10 days.

Zoe nearly 82,000 this morning - still up.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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Had my third primary jab this morning, it is not the same as booster jab. See explanation below.

What is the difference between this third dose and a booster dose?

This vaccination is being called a ‘third dose’ as it is being recommended as part of your primary COVID-19 vaccination. The first two doses of the vaccine also make up your primary vaccination. This third dose is only being offered to people who are less likely to have had a strong immune response to the first two doses.

The booster programme is separate from the third dose. The booster vaccine dose is being offered to people in certain groups from September. The JCVI will review whether people who have had a third dose as part of their primary vaccination need a further booster vaccine, at a later date

 

By the sound of the final sentence it is possible people in my group might get a fourth jab.

Edited by ricardo
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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Had my third primary jab this morning, it is not the same as booster jab. See explanation below.

What is the difference between this third dose and a booster dose?

This vaccination is being called a ‘third dose’ as it is being recommended as part of your primary COVID-19 vaccination. The first two doses of the vaccine also make up your primary vaccination. This third dose is only being offered to people who are less likely to have had a strong immune response to the first two doses.

The booster programme is separate from the third dose. The booster vaccine dose is being offered to people in certain groups from September. The JCVI will review whether people who have had a third dose as part of their primary vaccination need a further booster vaccine, at a later date

 

By the sound of the final sentence it is possible people in my group might get a fourth jab.

You're going to run out of immune cells at this rate! There must be a limit to the number injections a person can take in one short period, surely.... Your lymph nodes must already think you live in a medieval dustbin and regularly lick the sides

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Just now, Barbe bleu said:

You're going to run out of immune cells at this rate! There must be a limit to the number injections a person can take in one short period, surely.... Your lymph nodes must already think you live in a medieval dustbin and regularly lick the sides

With Non Hodgkins Lymphoma my Lymph nodes are up and down anyway. Thankfully mine are still in remission (touch wood)😉

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so if cases is what is worrying people, surely you go after the root cause? Since that is overwhelmingly kids and teenagers (who basically are all unvaccinated), isn't the solution to close schools?

Surely if we bring a load of other restrictions in but school cracks on as normal, it won't make much of a difference?

For me, it overwhelmingly comes down to getting the boosters done ASAP... Israel provides a nice insight into the future in that regard.

Clearly at this rate, basically all kids are going to get covid or schools need to shut so you make a choice based on least harm. For me, that's obviously keeping schools open and encouraging teenagers to get vaccinated (without coersion/rules for under 18s).

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National

49,139  - 179

rate of increase of 17.2% over 7 days,  slowly climbing again

 

Local

Norwich rate 433.3  up 43.2% (7 days) a big rise locally continies.

patients in N&N 

12-10-2021                 29
11-10-2021 31
10-10-2021 22
09-10-2021 19
08-10-2021 17

 

Vax        (no info available on 3rd or booster doses yet but quite a large queue for Walk in Centre when I went this morning)

1st Dose      42,902             86.1% done                               Norwich numbers   74.8% 

2nd Dose     32,767             79% done                                                                     68.3%

 

In Hospital (continuing to edge up)

19-10-2021                                           7,891
18-10-2021 7,767
17-10-2021 7,407
16-10-2021 7,142
15-10-2021 7,120
14-10-2021 7,115
13-10-2021 7,065
12-10-2021 7,057

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10 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

so if cases is what is worrying people, surely you go after the root cause? Since that is overwhelmingly kids and teenagers (who basically are all unvaccinated), isn't the solution to close schools?

Surely if we bring a load of other restrictions in but school cracks on as normal, it won't make much of a difference?

For me, it overwhelmingly comes down to getting the boosters done ASAP... Israel provides a nice insight into the future in that regard.

Clearly at this rate, basically all kids are going to get covid or schools need to shut so you make a choice based on least harm. For me, that's obviously keeping schools open and encouraging teenagers to get vaccinated (without coersion/rules for under 18s).

My Great Grandson (13 yrs) had his jab today so they seem to be moving locally.

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is there any ONS estimates on what % of kids/teenagers have already had covid? It would be interesting to see what sort of level of fully susceptible people there is left for this virus to go at... surely once everyone is either vaccinated and/or previously infected it won't really have many places to go? None of these variants seem to be even slightly reinventing the wheel so antibodies and memory cells should be able to do their job for the vast majority of breakthrough/repeat cases?

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22 minutes ago, Wings of a Sparrow said:

No more lockdowns.

Get jabbed.

We're f*cked.

The first bit of honesty from this government since this whole farrago started.😀

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

My Great Grandson (13 yrs) had his jab today so they seem to be moving locally.

I am working on this team and unfortunately the English government f***** up. They insisted on doing it in schools ( 15% uptake to date ), whereas the Scots allowed 12 - 15 to go to the hubs ( 55% uptake to date )

As you will be aware Javid announced a U turn yesterday, but did not bother telling anyone how it will work, so even if he gets his 1/2 term plan up and running I guess loads of vaccine destined for schools will need to be dumped as when we turn up 1 - 5th November 1/2 the kids booked in will already be vaccinated. Parents don’t want it in schools, which was common knowledge and schools didn’t want it in schools due to the anti vax brigade.

As you will be aware the government took control of boosters and teenage vaccines so I guess if it remains f***** up their press announcements will call it the NHS booster and teenage vaccination programme.

So instead of the words ‘ who ate all the pies ‘ to that famous song in football grounds we should be singing ‘ who shut all the hubs ‘.

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2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I am working on this team and unfortunately the English government f***** up. They insisted on doing it in schools ( 15% uptake to date ), whereas the Scots allowed 12 - 15 to go to the hubs ( 55% uptake to date )

As you will be aware Javid announced a U turn yesterday, but did not bother telling anyone how it will work, so even if he gets his 1/2 term plan up and running I guess loads of vaccine destined for schools will need to be dumped as when we turn up 1 - 5th November 1/2 the kids booked in will already be vaccinated. Parents don’t want it in schools, which was common knowledge and schools didn’t want it in schools due to the anti vax brigade.

As you will be aware the government took control of boosters and teenage vaccines so I guess if it remains f***** up their press announcements will call it the NHS booster and teenage vaccination programme.

So instead of the words ‘ who ate all the pies ‘ to that famous song in football grounds we should be singing ‘ who shut all the hubs ‘.

The biggest fcuk up was the JCVI delaying the decision to allow kids to be vaccinated in the first place. The government had to do some arm twisting.

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Well officially cases could now hit 100,000 a day (Zoe already has at > 80K/day) !

Nothing more need be said about this governments incompetence and certainly no excuses. This will the THIRD time around this particular dithering loop with few to no lessons learnt.

A dark Greek tragedy come comedy of errors

I wonder if Johnson feels at all uncomfortable looking over at Bolsonaro's current legal  predicament?

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

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26 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The biggest fcuk up was the JCVI delaying the decision to allow kids to be vaccinated in the first place. The government had to do some arm twisting.

Didn’t see where it told anyone it had to be done in schools ? It was Johnson’s decision.

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Our local news interviewed an ambulance official this morning and he stated that 800 hours had been wasted sat outside hospitals waiting to offload patients into A&E. At one time there were 29 hospitals outside Treliske Hospital waiting to offload.

Do not let anyone blind anyone else to the fact that we are in crisis.

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