Jump to content
Fuzzar

Corona Virus main thread

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Given we’re now at over 90% showing Covid antibodies according to the ONS (im guessing this is among those over 18) and given vaccine efficacy wanes over time, are we now at the point where it’s actually better to have a moderate level of Covid cases to build population immunity while vaccines are protecting people?  So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?
 

Its beginning to look as if immunity from infection isnt as good as that from vaccine, and as we know we need to keep boosting the vaccine to maintain relatively good immunity, I fear the concept of herd immunity isnt really going hit the spot with this virus  re waning vaccine and post infection immunity and a very infectious virus. I was very much against the July opening up, but gave the philosophy of getting the post opening rise in infections during the summer the benefit of the doubt, the recent figures sadly suggest that we may have got it wrong. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting to see florida with nearly no sign of covid considering they gave up caring long ago and had a big wave of delta... it's dropped like a stone there! Has everyone there already had it or something?

The deaths graph is basically at zero.

Screenshot_20211019-105524_Chrome.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Of the 1 billion doses 913 million went to the richest few countries then?  I wonder why that is....

I suspect exports to the UK of vaccines manufactured in the EU are included in the total, so not really a measure of altruism. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Its beginning to look as if immunity from infection isnt as good as that from vaccine, and as we know we need to keep boosting the vaccine to maintain relatively good immunity, I fear the concept of herd immunity isnt really going hit the spot with this virus  re waning vaccine and post infection immunity and a very infectious virus. I was very much against the July opening up, but gave the philosophy of getting the post opening rise in infections during the summer the benefit of the doubt, the recent figures sadly suggest that we may have got it wrong. 

it's still basically unvaccinated kids and the screw up in the south west that's causing the case rises it seems. Still nowhere near the 100k cases a day and 7000 a day admitted to hospital that the ZeroCovid zealots had warned... if they were in charge we'd still be at least at step 2 and still facing an uncertain winter anyway...

I'm not really that concerned yet though they need to hurry the hell up with the booster vaccinations for when the real test starts in winter.

That said, you're not just suddenly "unprotected" after 6 months, just your body will need to fire up the antibody creators when you're exposed to the virus. Indeed this is harder for older and unhealthier people to do but they will still have considerable protection. I suspect a lot more death "with not of" covid in a post vaccinated world of high case rates but high protection rates. Data seems to suggest this is slightly becoming the case.

Hospitalisation rates are still relatively stable and it doesn't seem like the explosive potential pre vaccine covid used to have is still there. We are at that proverbial "wall of vaccines" Chris Whitty was on about all them months ago.

Honestly if an average 100 deaths a day was the price to pay for near normality, I'd take that for now until we find even better vaccines and treatments.

I did listen to Joe Rogan and Dr. Sanjay Gupta chat on Rogans podcast which was very interesting. It brought to the table the debate over vaccinating previously infected people and whether to vaccinate kids/concentrate more on boosters for elderly and vulnerable. Also the point that if we got fitter and healthier in general weather our risk would be far less. I do find it odd we didn't do 1 jab for previously infected people such seems to be the scientific consensus.

Personally speaking, I'm not overly worried, I'll carry on as normal seeing friends and family, going to the pub/gigs/whatever, taking sensible, non invasive precautions (WFH, testing if symptomatic/required for events/prior to seeing old folk, masking up in public spaces where vulnerable folk might be like the shops/public transport). What will be will be... you can't live in a bubble forever...

Screenshot_20211019-110055_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?

I've had the same thought many times but feel uncomfortable about it nevertheless. The Delta Plus variant I've read is widespread in the UK (I'm sure I read 2/3 of new cases) so I've wondered if we are an outlier for that reason? Then again we are testing more. 

I'm unsure too about lasting immunity through vaccines (of which the 'waning' effect has been much reported in recent weeks as scientists and modellers try to explain our increasing rates). So, I'm very much looking forward to my booster! 

All in all it therefore doesn't feel we are back to normal in any realistic form. I don't know. One thing that has angered me however is the seeming disinterest by our government (not using this as a stick honestly). I watched the debate on poor David Amess yesterday and one side had no masks at all and the opposite bench everyone was wearing masks! WTF you might think. Just what message does that give us ....it's become politicised! And it's a pandemic. Why can't there be a simple request to wear masks or social distancing to continue (because for sure there is no need for lockdowns again). Why can't we all take simple precautions at least and the public messaging is reinforced daily to do so? I agree with @Essjayess on this matter.

I fear we are taking our eyes off the ball to use a football analogy and you'd have thought with Covid it's the last thing we should be doing. Just allowing some herd immunity unfettered feels very risky in my simple world.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Given we’re now at over 90% showing Covid antibodies according to the ONS (im guessing this is among those over 18) and given vaccine efficacy wanes over time, are we now at the point where it’s actually better to have a moderate level of Covid cases to build population immunity while vaccines are protecting people?  So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?
 

Of course Covid isn't going to go away unless we take the right steps to force it to do so, and for the record hospital admissions are already way too high and have been for many weeks now - treatment of other types of serious illness has already been badly affected and we are now just approaching the time of year when hospitals generally, and respiratory departments especially, will receive a surge of patients seriously ill with the usual seasonal problems. The NHS simply has not got the resources to cope with either this level of Covid or the seasonal stuff without massively restricting many of the other things it should be doing for the non-Covid but seriously ill.

The notion that herd immunity (whether achieved by vaccination or infection) was going to make this problem going away was always a huge stretch, if not downright fanciful, and as VW has already pointed out it has now been demonstrated as such.

As to the alternatives, I would have thought that was obvious ranging from lockdown (highly effective but unpopular with RWNJ Tory MPs + Johnson) to a variety of lighter restrictions which would still be effective in slowing the spread - mask wearing in public (indoors) seems like a no-brainer to me.

I think pretty much all the scientists have now agreed it is the single most effective method of reducing the spread, it is something that even if we don't like we have all got used to over the last 18 months and it seems a very minor imposition to say we need to go back to it for a while longer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Denis Hutchings, a soldier on trial in Belfast for murdering a terrorist in 1974, has died of Covid in a Belfast hospital.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

 

That said, you're not just suddenly "unprotected" after 6 months, just your body will need to fire up the antibody creators when you're exposed to the virus. Indeed this is harder for older and unhealthier people to do but they will still have considerable protection. I suspect a lot more death "with not of" covid in a post vaccinated world of high case rates but high protection rates. Data seems to suggest this is slightly becoming the case.

 

Absolutely agree, its evolution not revolution. The fear in my mind is around the booster and the seemingly poor uptake, or slow roll out so far, and acquired immunity being less strong than had been hoped. Add that to delta and we are hearing the distant rumble of thunder particularly with the level of community infection we have and other winter respiratory infection thrown in. The last thing you need with a highly infectious virus is waning immunity and a population with a short memory of good hygienic behaviour. At some point there is a risk that we will see those factors coalesce and hospitalisations increase rapidly again. I don't expect the death rate to be anything like it was before but the issue is hospital beds isn't it?

I'd like to share your mild optimism but I'm beginning to get a bit twitchy 😃

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Covid is not going to go away because we can't stop it morphing into new variants. We can stop spending money on daft ideas such as Vaccine passports, as it is becoming clear that all of us, vaccinated or not, can carry and spread the virus.

What we could have done after exercise 'Alice' and the damning report into this 2016 pandemic exercise, when Hunt was in charge, is to act upon the report, not cut the pandemic budget from 859million down to 530odd million, get a pandemic PPE stock and prepared a screening program for all those who enter the UK. That was a planned folly, as was the cutting of NHS funding to the bone and the sycophantic xenophobic tirades against hard working tax paying EU doctors and nurses.

This should be a case for the law to decide there is a trail of wilful actions and ignorance to act which can be proven. I hope that these unnecessary death will be dealt with by a court, not a long grass inquiry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Its beginning to look as if immunity from infection isnt as good as that from vaccine, and as we know we need to keep boosting the vaccine to maintain relatively good immunity, I fear the concept of herd immunity isnt really going hit the spot with this virus  re waning vaccine and post infection immunity and a very infectious virus. I was very much against the July opening up, but gave the philosophy of getting the post opening rise in infections during the summer the benefit of the doubt, the recent figures sadly suggest that we may have got it wrong. 

If herd immunity won't stop the spread then nothing will.  The only other possible way of stopping spread for good would be for covid to become extinct in every single part of the world at the same time.   That's not happening.

If you don't believe that herd, sterilising, immunity will ever be achieved and you are not so barking mad as to believe in spontaneous extinction them exactly what would the measures you think are appropriate be for? In the past this could be explained as buying us time for vaccine delivery and medical research but the gains in these areas now will be limited so all restrictions can really do now is to 'encourage' hospital cases to come forward in the summer rather than winter.  By this token June/July would have been the 'ideal' time to reopen surely?  

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

 So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

I am inclined to agree. I have thought for a fair while now that the assumption that high infection rate =bad might be a thing of the past.

 Neither past exposure or vaccination appears to give 100%  (sterilising) protection from infection and won't stop you getting exposed to the pathogen. What we do know is that that best protection and nearest we get to the gold standard comes from double vaccination and exposure

So when you are exposed, as you probably will be given the R0 of delta is astronomical, would you rather that was when you still had antibodies in circulation in your blood or when only your baseline memory still existed?  Would you rather be exposed go a virus against which the vaccine still has very good efficacy or an indeterminate variant?

And that's before the NHS seasons come into play 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Van wink said:

I'd like to share your mild optimism but I'm beginning to get a bit twitchy 😃

I share your twitchiness VW. I can see lots of people who come up with all sorts of reasons why in some manner it's 'gone away' or we can or should ignore it i.e. 'Herd Immunity ' as per BB (that idea as a solution died last summer) or that it is in some undefined manner already 'endemic' by which I think they mean steady state. The summer pause was likely simply a Iull before the storm.

Simply for me its just a numbers game. We've all had flu (or very bad colds) at some point - sometimes more than once. Once we've all had Covid once or twice then we will be at 'steady state'. Not until.

Until that point it's really now just a question of managing the numbers - if you let, as we currently are on course for,  millions to become infected then expect thousands of hospitalizations.  

As ever the current hospitalizations let alone deaths relate to infections caught likely 2 or 3 weeks ago - when the confirmed PCR tests were a lot lot less. Higher hospitalizations and deaths 2 or 3 weeks from now are already 'in the can' as far as Covid is concerned. 

We all hope for Covid to be self-limiting and the vaccine to take the edge off. But surely from a public health perspective we can't rely on our wishes or plain luck or boosterism to see us through.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Oxford in the news again...a.specific Delta vaccine this time.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/covid-vaccine-delta-oxford-latest-b1925631.html

That is certainly good news but seems slightly strange, especially given how quickly they were off the mark first time around, that they are only now starting on Delta or am I missing something really obvious?

Edited by Creative Midfielder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I share your twitchiness VW. I can see lots of people who come up with all sorts of reasons why in some manner it's 'gone away' or we can or should ignore it i.e. 'Herd Immunity ' as per BB (that idea as a solution died last summer) or that it is in some undefined manner already 'endemic' by which I think they mean steady state. The summer pause was likely simply a Iull before the storm.

Simply for me its just a numbers game. We've all had flu (or very bad colds) at some point - sometimes more than once. Once we've all had Covid once or twice then we will be at 'steady state'. Not until.

 

OK, so we lockdown or take measures that increase social distancing; Infections will fall in line with the severity of the measures. But do we keep these measures in place until the end of time? 

Until we achieve Herd immunity all these measures can do is delay the point at which people get the disease.  Herd immunity appears to have become a dirty phrase but it is the end point that all epidemics reach.   They set in, they multiply and then, when the immunity threshold is met,  they become endemic.  If we are lucky R might fall below 1 for long enough in enough places that this thing goes goes the way of SARS 1 but after 18 months of trying that's that's big ask  and certainly unachievable without Herd immunity.

 If we were locking down etc because the reformulated vaccine was being  produced  and we wanted to buy a bit of time or we wanted to deflect hospitalisations away from the seasonal peak then there might be a point but there doesn't appear to be much evidence of that just yet.  

Is what you really mean 'we need measures now because i fear a seasonal effect that will push numbers up at just the time to coincide with seasonal pressure on the NHS. I would then welcome relaxation when the flu season is done'?

Edited by Barbe bleu

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only 68% of EPL footballers have had two jabs. 81% have had one.

So out of 500 players, only 340 have bothered to get vaccinated.

Callum Robinson had had it twice and still will not have the vaccine.

I've fallen off my chair Brian

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had a letter from NHS today re third Primary dose of Covid vaccine for those with severe Immunosuppresion. (ie me).

The letter says this is " the third of a primary vaccination schedule of three doses and is different to the booster vaccination roll out to the wider population"

Apparently I can just go straight to a walk in centre without a prior appointment. I shall head off first thing tomorrow👍

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

National

43,738  - 223

rate of increase of 16.1% over 7 days,  slowly climbing again

 

Local

Norwich rate 402.3  up 52.1% (7 days) a big rise locally.

patients in N&N 

12-10-2021                 29
11-10-2021 31
10-10-2021 22
09-10-2021 19
08-10-2021 17

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      39,672             86% done                               Norwich numbers   74.8% 

2nd Dose     23,579             78.9% done                                                               68.3%

 

In Hospital

18-10-2021                         7,749
17-10-2021 7,398
16-10-2021 7,136
15-10-2021 7,114
14-10-2021 7,110
13-10-2021 7,061
12-10-2021 7,056
11-10-2021 7,039

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Only 68% of EPL footballers have had two jabs. 81% have had one.

So out of 500 players, only 340 have bothered to get vaccinated.

Callum Robinson had had it twice and still will not have the vaccine.

I've fallen off my chair Brian

where did you study maths? 405 have taken at least their first dose so will presumably go back for dose 2.

Callus Robinson represents an interesting case really... surely he will have very high antibody levels now so what is the benefit to him rushing to get vaccinated other than to avoid travel disruption?

It would be interesting to hear the view of a subject matter expert for this instance since it was widely considered that 1 infection is similar to getting 1 dose of vaccine for immunity and some countries even accept that for their pass... how about 2 infections?

Is he and indeed everyone that comes into contact with him going to actually benefit or is he just taking an unnecessary (allbeit tiny) risk of bad side effects by taking the jab now? I believe Kyrie Irving is using a similar excuse with his explanation but maybe only had 1 infection?

Just seems that blanket rules aren't able to really cover such exceptions.

Edited by Tetteys Jig

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

OK, so we lockdown or take measures that increase social distancing; Infections will fall in line with the severity of the measures. But do we keep these measures in place until the end of time? 

Until we achieve Herd immunity all these measures can do is delay the point at which people get the disease.  Herd immunity appears to have become a dirty phrase but it is the end point that all epidemics reach.   They set in, they multiply and then, when the immunity threshold is met,  they become endemic.  If we are lucky R might fall below 1 for long enough in enough places that this thing goes goes the way of SARS 1 but after 18 months of trying that's that's big ask  and certainly unachievable without Herd immunity.

 If we were locking down etc because the reformulated vaccine was being  produced  and we wanted to buy a bit of time or we wanted to deflect hospitalisations away from the seasonal peak then there might be a point but there doesn't appear to be much evidence of that just yet.  

Is what you really mean 'we need measures now because i fear a seasonal effect that will push numbers up at just the time to coincide with seasonal pressure on the NHS. I would then welcome relaxation when the flu season is done'?

Herd immunity for Covid is myth - was debunked last Spring and confirmed in the summer.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Simply we would have to vaccinate everybody (including the refusniks) plus all the children

AND when vaccinated you would have to be incapable of further transmitting the disease - an assumption we now know to be false.

This has been the scientific consensus for many months now.

So the question becomes one of containment, vaccines, better treatments and managing hospitalizations within sensible numbers and resources.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Herd immunity for Covid is myth - was debunked last Spring and confirmed in the summer.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Simply we would have to vaccinate everybody (including the refusniks) plus all the children

AND when vaccinated you would have to be incapable of further transmitting the disease - an assumption we now know to be false.

This has been the scientific consensus for many months now.

So the question becomes one of containment, vaccines, better treatments and managing hospitalizations within sensible numbers and resources.

While I agree with what you’re saying, this means we have to accept measures like lockdowns ultimately just delay infections until later on, they are not a solution to the problem. So we need to deploy them only when there is a specific short term reason such as when vaccines were being rolled out. That’s not the case now.


you need an exit strategy, we can’t continue permanently restricting peoples’ everyday lives, willingness to accept restrictions is clearly waning especially among 20-somethings who have least to fear from Covid.

 

At the moment, the key number continues to be hospitalisations, which are currently at a sustainable level. Reimposing restrictions would only be justified if hospitalisations are getting out of control, and there is no sign of that as yet.

 

So although it’s an uncomfortable idea, it’s looking like we’re now at a point where Covid cases could be too low as well as too high, otherwise we might face high numbers  later at a time when the NHS has less capacity to cope.

 

I’m open to other ideas but I’ve not heard any, except China seems to be going for a permanent policy of harsh restrictions and lockdowns, which let’s face it probably suits the Chinese state. I think this is more than anything because it would be embarrassing for them to concede their zero-Covid approach is obviously impossible, which has been clear for quite some time.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Herd immunity for Covid is myth - was debunked last Spring and confirmed in the summer.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

Simply we would have to vaccinate everybody (including the refusniks) plus all the children

AND when vaccinated you would have to be incapable of further transmitting the disease - an assumption we now know to be false.

This has been the scientific consensus for many months now.

So the question becomes one of containment, vaccines, better treatments and managing hospitalizations within sensible numbers and resources.

Putting that all together  are you advocating never ending restrictions  or a complete absence of restrictions as there is no point in them as this will remain epidemic forever regardless of what we do? Either of those seem the logical end points of your arguments

I understand your interpretation of that article but I am not sure it was the intended one. Its an article really about vaccination as a route to elimination and discusses the prospects for herd immunity by this method alone. I have never thought that vaccines alone would bring this to a halt and I have long accepted that endemic disease is the end state ( or at least have since 18 may 2020 when @Van wink shared the story about the vaccine not giving sterilising immunity in monkeys). I hope I am wrong a zero covid becomes a thing, its possible even if unlikely

What i am sure of is that we will get herd immunity to this disease, it cannot remain epidemic (ie growing exponentially) forever.  Like the article says that immunity won't be just because of vaccines, some of it will need to be done the hard way.

Maybe I should state what the terms 'herd immunity' and 'endemic' mean to me as that might situate my response a bit better. In reality being at the herd immunity threshold means no more and no less than, on average,  R=1 when mixing is free. A disease that is endemic is one , as you put it, in a steady state, which is of course also R=1. If we combine these two then we can say with certainty that if we are in an endemic state then herd immunity is acheived and vice versa.

I have said 'on average' because endemic diseases will flare up and die down from time to time. That's what will probably happen with this as it does with all.  I guess what I think is beneficial is that these.flare ups happen when the pressure is not on the health service and, crucially, when immunity in individuals is high, like soon after a vaccine or three.... I am therefore not adverse to targeted measures but they must be carefully applied with a very specific goal. A circuit breaker just because the August figures are looking  dodgy just wouldn't cut it.

As a concluding thought the HIT for Delta is crazy high. I've seen estimates of an R0 of 7 or 8 so HIT would be between 86 and 88% ([1- 1/R0]*100%) so i wouldn't necessarily expect is to be at that level already, the key thing is will we be there because the flu patients really start checking in... 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

where did you study maths? 405 have taken at least their first dose so will presumably go back for dose 2.

Callus Robinson represents an interesting case really... surely he will have very high antibody levels now so what is the benefit to him rushing to get vaccinated other than to avoid travel disruption?

It would be interesting to hear the view of a subject matter expert for this instance since it was widely considered that 1 infection is similar to getting 1 dose of vaccine for immunity and some countries even accept that for their pass... how about 2 infections?

Is he and indeed everyone that comes into contact with him going to actually benefit or is he just taking an unnecessary (allbeit tiny) risk of bad side effects by taking the jab now? I believe Kyrie Irving is using a similar excuse with his explanation but maybe only had 1 infection?

Just seems that blanket rules aren't able to really cover such exceptions.

My maths is sound. At the time of posting. No explanation accompanied why these others have only had one jab. So as far as I am concerned as they were eligible in June for the jab, they haven't got a sprint on for the second and may not be bothering. Maybe they play for clubs not in Europe or don't play for their country.

The vaccine is free. And increases your antibodies. So I do not understand Robinson's reticence. Unless you have a medical reason not to be vaccinated, then not having one is reckless and unnecessary.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I read a mention in an article that the Beta variant is on the way to becoming extinct because the Delta variant is so much more transmissible and it made me think, do we need to save Beta from extinction 😎?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, It's Character Forming said:

I read a mention in an article that the Beta variant is on the way to becoming extinct because the Delta variant is so much more transmissible and it made me think, do we need to save Beta from extinction 😎?

Even Delta has now a rival as 6% of all new cases are a variant

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Putting that all together  are you advocating never ending restrictions  or a complete absence of restrictions as there is no point in them as this will remain epidemic forever regardless of what we do? Either of those seem the logical end points of your arguments

I understand your interpretation of that article but I am not sure it was the intended one. Its an article really about vaccination as a route to elimination and discusses the prospects for herd immunity by this method alone. I have never thought that vaccines alone would bring this to a halt and I have long accepted that endemic disease is the end state ( or at least have since 18 may 2020 when @Van wink shared the story about the vaccine not giving sterilising immunity in monkeys). I hope I am wrong a zero covid becomes a thing, its possible even if unlikely

What i am sure of is that we will get herd immunity to this disease, it cannot remain epidemic (ie growing exponentially) forever.  Like the article says that immunity won't be just because of vaccines, some of it will need to be done the hard way.

Maybe I should state what the terms 'herd immunity' and 'endemic' mean to me as that might situate my response a bit better. In reality being at the herd immunity threshold means no more and no less than, on average,  R=1 when mixing is free. A disease that is endemic is one , as you put it, in a steady state, which is of course also R=1. If we combine these two then we can say with certainty that if we are in an endemic state then herd immunity is acheived and vice versa.

I have said 'on average' because endemic diseases will flare up and die down from time to time. That's what will probably happen with this as it does with all.  I guess what I think is beneficial.is that these.flarw ups happen when the pressure is not on the health service and, crucially, when immunity in individuals is high, like soon after a vaccine or three....

The HIT for Delta is crazy high. I've seen estimates of an R0 of 7 or 8 so HIT would be between 86 and 88% (1- 1/R0 *100%) so i wouldn't necessarily expect is to be at that level already, the key thing is will we be there because the flu patients really start checking in... 

 

I didn't mean to be abrupt before - but herd immunity really means that any 'flare ups' naturally die down i.e. cant spread far with a minimum of interventions - natural isolating.

As to previous pandemics - yes of course they fade over several years as the weak, infirm or plain unlucky are culled out (and the virus hopefully evolves to become less severe). We have a lot of them - even on here! There is even some Darwinian evolution for us involved as well (c.f. Bubonic plague - Ok bacterial but the point stands)! Those that are strong survive and do indeed become resistant to it like most viruses after multiple exposures or ongoing vaccinations. However I don't think you really mean to let the virus do it's business untroubled by us and for nature, red in tooth and claw to take its course?

In the meantime yes we will need to be more careful - I guess those that don't may live fast and die young.

ICF asks is for an exit strategy. Sorry but we are dealing with nature that likes culling over rampant species (think rabbits and myxomatosis) and just perhaps it has other ideas!  We have to use our technology and intelligence to stay one step ahead. 

 

Edited by Yellow Fever
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, keelansgrandad said:

My maths is sound. At the time of posting. No explanation accompanied why these others have only had one jab. So as far as I am concerned as they were eligible in June for the jab, they haven't got a sprint on for the second and may not be bothering. Maybe they play for clubs not in Europe or don't play for their country.

The vaccine is free. And increases your antibodies. So I do not understand Robinson's reticence. Unless you have a medical reason not to be vaccinated, then not having one is reckless and unnecessary.

but if his antibodies are already sky high, is there any need to rush to be vaccinated... I suspect unless we know the full ins and outs we don't know that one.

Also, I suspect many footballers in the prem were involved in the euros and other similar things so didn't want to take the jab when they had important games to play in hence the delay. Imagine Kane took the jab just before the Scotland game and then had to miss it with a bit of a reaction when he could have just got sorted before or after the tournament.

In my view, they should have been offered the jab long before the euros like Southgate said so they were all set for it. Its only a small group but a fairly important one for public messaging etc.

Glad to see the numbers have improved from where they were anyway... sure previously it was at 1/3 vaccinated so hopefully it's mainly hesitancy rather than actual antivaxx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

but if his antibodies are already sky high, is there any need to rush to be vaccinated... I suspect unless we know the full ins and outs we don't know that one.

Also, I suspect many footballers in the prem were involved in the euros and other similar things so didn't want to take the jab when they had important games to play in hence the delay. Imagine Kane took the jab just before the Scotland game and then had to miss it with a bit of a reaction when he could have just got sorted before or after the tournament.

In my view, they should have been offered the jab long before the euros like Southgate said so they were all set for it. Its only a small group but a fairly important one for public messaging etc.

Glad to see the numbers have improved from where they were anyway... sure previously it was at 1/3 vaccinated so hopefully it's mainly hesitancy rather than actual antivaxx

Of course it doesn't specify nationality either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Of course Covid isn't going to go away unless we take the right steps to force it to do so, and for the record hospital admissions are already way too high and have been for many weeks now -

Purely out of interest, do you have the hospital admission figures this year compared to September/October in years pre-covid?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

ICF asks is for an exit strategy. Sorry but we are dealing with nature that likes culling over rampant species (think rabbits and myxomatosis) and just perhaps it has other ideas!  We have to use our technology and intelligence to stay one step ahead. 

 

This is of course one of the biggest challenges to humanity, the fact we cannot accept death, we need to hold people on to life when quality has long gone! We are killing the planet and when nature fights back we try to stay ahead as you say. Reality is we are very fragile, we will die and ultimately nature will kill us off as a species eventually.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...