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6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

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I’ve got to look, but was told last night that the monthly average death rate in below the 5 year levels. I’ll have to look it up!

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My son has a contact at the N and N hospital who says that almost all those in hospital are unvaccinated.

No surprise really

 

 

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1 hour ago, Indy said:

I’ve got to look, but was told last night that the monthly average death rate in below the 5 year levels. I’ll have to look it up!

Unfortunately not, or at least not on the last figures.  ONS publish this data week by week.   Excess deaths are up across the range of diseases though so difficult to know what the dorect cause of the overall excess is.Screenshot_20211017-172725_Chrome.jpg.a4e1db3f75973593e1d25d2748f7f4d5.jpg

Edited by Barbe bleu
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3 hours ago, ricardo said:

My son has a contact at the N and N hospital who says that almost all those in hospital are unvaccinated.

No surprise really

 

 

According to the Economist 80-90% of this in hospital are unvaccinated. 

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3 hours ago, ricardo said:

My son has a contact at the N and N hospital who says that almost all those in hospital are unvaccinated.

No surprise really

 

 

As you say, unsurprising. I know of three people within a hundred yards of my house who got it, but although poorly for a fortnight, never came close to being hospitalised.

Mind you, its easier to go to A&E at the moment than your own surgery. I cannot even get my regular blood test at the moment. Too busy apparently.

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Hmm - If only we could also show such humanity...

EU has exported over 1bn vaccine doses worldwide – von der Leyen

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has issued a statement this morning about the EU reaching a vaccine milestone. She says the bloc has exported over 1bn vaccine doses worldwide. She says:

We have reached an important milestone in the delivery of Covid-19 vaccines to the world. The European Union has exported over 1bn vaccine doses worldwide, over the past ten months. Vaccines produced in the EU have been shipped to more than 150 countries. We delivered around 87m doses to low- and middle-income countries through Covax. Very clearly, the European Union is the largest exporter of Covid-19 vaccines.

In parallel, the EU has enabled the vaccination of our citizens. And more than 75% of adults in the EU are now fully vaccinated. Together with President Biden, we aim for a global vaccination rate of 70% by next year. The EU-US Agenda for Beating the Global Pandemic will help us achieve that. On top of our exports, the EU will donate in the next months at least 500 million doses to the most vulnerable countries. But other countries need to step up, too.

Von der Leyen goes on to say that she will be pressing world leaders at the G20 summit in Rome next week on the issue.

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25 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 The European Union has exported over 1bn vaccine doses worldwide, over the past ten months. Vaccines produced in the EU have been shipped to more than 150 countries. We delivered around 87m doses to low- and middle-income countries through Covax. 

Of the 1 billion doses 913 million went to the richest few countries then?  I wonder why that is....

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

To upset you? 

I was tempted by the 'you're not very good at humour' line. But I resisted it!

To the subject matter I dont know if this was a release directed mainly at the US in an attempt to shame them into exporting more vaccine; an attempt by the EU to make up for the reputational damage they suffered in the early days of the vaccine or; the EU trying to position itself in the world.   Regardless of the messaging though, to suggest that the exports have been motivated by 'humanity' as opposed to profit (appreciating that the two are not always decoupled) seems to me to be stretching it a bit.

I'm glad that vaccines have been manufactured, but let's not try to suggest that anyone involved in production and distribution (except maybe AZ) has been particularly altruistic.   

Edited by Barbe bleu
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30 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I was tempted by the 'you're not very good at humour' line. But I resisted it!

To the subject matter I dont know if this was a release directed mainly at the US in an attempt to shame them into exporting more vaccine; an attempt by the EU to make up for the reputational damage they suffered in the early days of the vaccine or; the EU trying to position itself in the world.   Regardless of the messaging though, to suggest that the exports have been motivated by 'humanity' as opposed to profit (appreciating that the two are not always decoupled) seems to me to be stretching it a bit.

I'm glad that vaccines have been manufactured, but let's not try to suggest that anyone involved in production and distribution (except maybe AZ) has been particularly altruistic.   

Its just a humbling fact BB. They have long sailed past us in all ways that matter vs the vaccines.

By the way - I guess you're one of the lucky recipients of EU vaccines too - if not already you will be for the booster. As I said a year or two ago you'll have to stand and sing Ode to Joy as you receive it (it's those microchips 😉 )

von der Leyen's statement.

We have reached an important milestone in the delivery of COVID-19 vaccines to the world. The European Union has exported over 1 billion vaccine doses worldwide, over the past ten months. Vaccines produced in the EU have been shipped to more than 150 countries on all continents – from Japan to Turkey, from the UK to New Zealand, from South Africa to Brazil. We delivered around 87 million doses to low- and middle-income countries through COVAX. Very clearly, the European Union is the largest exporter of COVID-19 vaccines. We have always shared our vaccines fairly with the rest of the world. We have exported as much as we delivered to EU citizens. Indeed, at least every second vaccine produced in Europe is exported.

In parallel, the EU has enabled the vaccination of our citizens. And more than 75% of adults in the EU are now fully vaccinated. But we remained open to the world from the start and continued to export, even when vaccines were scarce at home. Because we knew that we will only beat COVID-19 if we fight it everywhere. And we will do more. Together with President Biden, we aim for a global vaccination rate of 70% by next year. The EU-US Agenda for Beating the Global Pandemic will help us achieve that. The European Union is doing its part.

On top of our exports, the EU will donate in the next months at least 500 million doses to the most vulnerable countries. But other countries need to step up, too. I work closely with Prime Minister Draghi and President Biden to rally G20 leaders at the Rome Summit next week behind this ambitious goal: beating the global pandemic.

Thank you.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Of the 1 billion doses 913 million went to the richest few countries then?  I wonder why that is....

I expect they paid for them up front.

Who'd a guessed😉

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Its just a humbling fact BB. They have long sailed past us in all ways that matter vs the vaccines.

By the way - I guess you're one of the lucky recipients of EU vaccines too - if not already you will be for the booster. As I said a year or two ago you'll have to stand and sing Ode to Joy

I'm the lucky recipient of a French car too.  Does that mean I have to make a pilgrimage to strasbourg to give thanks and praises to the EU for its munificence in allowing car plants to operate ? I had thought my purchase was on the basis of fair exchange but I see now that the dodgy air con was a little reminder of my need to stay humble.

I'm going going to feel pretty conflicted when I have to go to Beijing to thank president Xi for personally designing my latest keyring

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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32 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm the lucky recipient of a French car too.  Does that mean I have to make a pilgrimage to strasbourg to give thanks and praises to the EU for its munificence in allowing car plants to operate ? I had thought my purchase was on the basis of fair exchange but I see now that the dodgy air con was a little reminder of my need to stay humble.

I'm going going to feel pretty conflicted when I have to go to Beijing to thank president Xi for personally designing my latest keyring

 

You seem  bit defensive today BB. Yes my Ode to Joy is bit of merriment if only to pointedly highlight the EU dimension to the worlds premier economic blocks  

The EU vaccine numbers and exports are good. They are delivering on their promises and should be thanked by all including us for it.

 

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49 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You seem  bit defensive today BB. Yes my Ode to Joy is bit of merriment if only to pointedly highlight the EU dimension to the worlds premier economic blocks  

The EU vaccine numbers and exports are good. They are delivering on their promises and should be thanked by all including us for it.

 

Do I sound defensive? I don’t feel defensive....   

I'm grateful for all involved in vaccine research, development and manufacturing and distribution.  If the EU institutions are involved in that then I guess they have my thanks too!

Let's not pretend though that altruistism is at the heart of any of this.   If you happen to be  on in a rich country you'll likely have been offered a vaccine; if not you probably won't. Whatever the rights ans wrongs of high pricing for medicines,  boasting that less than 9% of all exports go to low and middle income countries whilst the remaining 91plus% go to rich nations at great profit doesn't sit right with me

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Of the 1 billion doses 913 million went to the richest few countries then?  I wonder why that is....

With the greatest of respect last time I looked the U.K. had exported 9600 doses and had to buy 96 million doses of Pfizer from the EU. We piled into AstraZeneca ( which was an excellent decision as it worked ), but now like most rich nations we dont use it, surely we should be manufacturing it as quick as possible to get to COVAX, with the same being said for for the USA who have the potential to produce 100’s of millions of doses of AstraZeneca.

We also cancelled our purchase of 100 million doses of Valneva, that if their results are correct ( and I have no reason to doubt them), this could well be an error.

That is not to argue at all that the U.K. vaccine roll out was nothing but brilliant, just a query as to why you are having a dig at the EU who as well as exporting and manufacturing in huge numbers in many Countries are way ahead of us.

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28 minutes ago, Well b back said:

With the greatest of respect last time I looked the U.K. had exported 9600 doses and had to buy 96 million doses of Pfizer from the EU. We piled into AstraZeneca ( which was an excellent decision as it worked ), but now like most rich nations we dont use it, surely we should be manufacturing it as quick as possible to get to COVAX, with the same being said for for the USA who have the potential to produce 100’s of millions of doses of AstraZeneca.

We also cancelled our purchase of 100 million doses of Valneva, that if their results are correct ( and I have no reason to doubt them), this could well be an error.

That is not to argue at all that the U.K. vaccine roll out was nothing but brilliant, just a query as to why you are having a dig at the EU who as well as exporting and manufacturing in huge numbers in many Countries are way ahead of us.

I'm not having a dig.  I didn't raise the subject. I'm glad vaccines are produced and I'm not particularly bothered where they are made.

I'm merely pointing out that if the institutions of the EU are going to claim or be given credit for altruism then I might expect a bit more than 9% of exports (and presumably less than 5% of all production) to go to the less well off. It should also be said that there is little evidence that these 87million doses have been made available at a price actually affordable by developing nations. Not that the institutions of the EU really have much to do with production.

In terms of domestic production I would very much support the plants we have producing for poorer nations and I certainly would not be happy if production runs had been ceased when there is still demand out there.

In terms of valneva it's a difficult one.  On one hand we might not be able to make use of 100 million doses within the timetable stipulated in the contract.  On the other hand if this does mean that less vaccines are produced its not a good thing (not least for the UK as production was to be based here). It is also worth noting that valneva is an 'old style' vaccine that anti vaxxers might trust more than the novel technologies we currently have.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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National

49,156  - 45

rate of increase of 16.2% over 7 days,  slowly climbing again

 

Local

Norwich rate 377  up 45.2% (7 days)

patients in N&N 

12-10-2021                 29
11-10-2021 31
10-10-2021 22
09-10-2021 19
08-10-2021 17

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      17,837             85.9% done                            Norwich numbers   74.8% 

2nd Dose     17,256             78.9% done                                                               68.2%

In Hospital

15-10-2021                               7,097
14-10-2021 7,100
13-10-2021 7,052
12-10-2021 7,047
11-10-2021 7,035
10-10-2021 6,886
09-10-2021 6,717
08-10-2021 6,776

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5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

49,156  - 45

rate of increase of 16.2% over 7 days,  slowly climbing again

 

Local

Norwich rate 377  up 45.2% (7 days)

patients in N&N 

12-10-2021                 29
11-10-2021 31
10-10-2021 22
09-10-2021 19
08-10-2021 17

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      17,837             85.9% done                            Norwich numbers   74.8% 

2nd Dose     17,256             78.9% done                                                               68.2%

In Hospital

15-10-2021                               7,097
14-10-2021 7,100
13-10-2021 7,052
12-10-2021 7,047
11-10-2021 7,035
10-10-2021 6,886
09-10-2021 6,717
08-10-2021 6,776

Half term next week. Should see a difference whether up or down.

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3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Half term next week. Should see a difference whether up or down.

See Agegroups.

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3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm the lucky recipient of a French car too.  Does that mean I have to make a pilgrimage to strasbourg

 

Based on my experience of French cars, I’d recommend getting a train there if you do!

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Plus your neck of the woods.

Road blocks needed at Lostwithiel😉

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It did leap to 700 for a while. Now its mid 500. If you see anyone wearing a mask in supermarkets etc its me. Nobody else bothers.

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9 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

It did leap to 700 for a while. Now its mid 500. If you see anyone wearing a mask in supermarkets etc its me. Nobody else bothers.

You should move north mate, still plenty of people wearing masks round here, and the beer is a lot better as well 😃

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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9 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

It did leap to 700 for a while. Now its mid 500. If you see anyone wearing a mask in supermarkets etc its me. Nobody else bothers.

Firmly believe this is the main reason now why the UK Covid rates are staggeringly higher than all the rest of the continental nations around us...which also affects the Covid death rate to, which is more than double the rate of most of our neighbours, even though vaccination has played its part here to in keeping deaths far lower than without vaccination...the simple attitude of most  casting their face masks to the wind and living normally,  purely relying on the thought that vax is so good that nothing else is now needed..a state of mind that has been partly brought on by our politicians who pretty much  act the same way.

Vaccination has given us the freedom to be able not to have to live a lockdowned lifestyle anymore but for me, the wearing of face coverings should be a way of life for us all now, as in so many other nations, it does not eradicate Covid but it does help quite a lot in suppresing further the chance of catching Covid.

I still wear a face mask, indeed a double face mask, as my immediate household, not only in shops and enclosed areas, but even out in the street...after 18 months its now become a way of life for me. Finally, i do fear this coming winter, particularly for the NHS, it wont take much for it to become overwhelmed and that would be a very sad state of affairs nearly 2 years after this virus first showed itself...it would feel like the glaring lessons have not been learned or just ignored.

 

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2 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Firmly believe this is the main reason now why the UK Covid rates are staggeringly higher than all the rest of the continental nations around us...which also affects the Covid death rate to, which is more than double the rate of most of our neighbours, even though vaccination has played its part here to in keeping deaths far lower than without vaccination...

 

I think you underestimate the vaccine.  Without it all other measures except hiding under a stone and never seeing  anyone ever again would be pointless

That said if the aim were to keep infections low the data, to my mind, suggests you might be right. Below is a chart with one measure of excess deaths for the period since measures were taken away.  It shows a definite rise.

The same trend is true in all our most comparable neighbours, who, I think, withdrew restrictions at a similar time (I have kept them in mainly for the trend not the raw numbers which are impossible to compare with any great value).  Our relative increase from start to end though is quite a bit higher than anyone else  mainly because we were in the negative in June, whereas, for instance, the  Netherlands still had excess deaths at this point. The rate of the relative rise from baseline could be because of the nation's intrinsic characteristics or our willingness to abandon any semblance of distancing quicker than our overseas friends, I don't suppose we'll ever know.

Screenshot_20211019-091047_Chrome.thumb.jpg.8a96b59d53a8a983caecb38addbe8ee0.jpg

Note of caution though, this is an all cause graph. With covid  making up a smaller part of overall mortality what we are seeing might be a sequelae of lockdown rather than the virus.

I've not bothered with a graph of infections as I think the offical regimes are barely comparable and it would be misleading but I suspect that it would show similar trends.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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Given we’re now at over 90% showing Covid antibodies according to the ONS (im guessing this is among those over 18) and given vaccine efficacy wanes over time, are we now at the point where it’s actually better to have a moderate level of Covid cases to build population immunity while vaccines are protecting people?  So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?
 

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Covid rates hitting the news again - dashboard lights flashing red. Perhaps we're starting to wake up again from our slumber.  

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3 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Given we’re now at over 90% showing Covid antibodies according to the ONS (im guessing this is among those over 18) and given vaccine efficacy wanes over time, are we now at the point where it’s actually better to have a moderate level of Covid cases to build population immunity while vaccines are protecting people?  So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?
 

In very simple terms 10% of 60 million people is 6 million. That even assumes the 90% who have antibodies are fully immune - they are not - say 90% effective. High contagious Delta will eventually find them all - plus those with less than perfect immunity. For most hopefully a bad 'cold' but for some much worse.

That's why we are long way from the 'stable state' at present - and why almost certainly there will need to be some 'rate limiting' adjustments later this autumn.

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1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Given we’re now at over 90% showing Covid antibodies according to the ONS (im guessing this is among those over 18) and given vaccine efficacy wanes over time, are we now at the point where it’s actually better to have a moderate level of Covid cases to build population immunity while vaccines are protecting people?  So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?
 

Its beginning to look as if immunity from infection isnt as good as that from vaccine, and as we know we need to keep boosting the vaccine to maintain relatively good immunity, I fear the concept of herd immunity isnt really going hit the spot with this virus  re waning vaccine and post infection immunity and a very infectious virus. I was very much against the July opening up, but gave the philosophy of getting the post opening rise in infections during the summer the benefit of the doubt, the recent figures sadly suggest that we may have got it wrong. 

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