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8 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Quite.  

But if they haven't been tested for covid then they won't be recorded as dying with covid. 

I hope you are right and that numbers are very low in France etc but until you know more about the comparative testing regimes these comparison figures are largely meaningless.

 

I see you still just can't get your head around the fact that other countries are dealing with the pandemic better than we are.

The idea that the 'comparative testing regines' is key to understanding the actual death figures is ludicrous on so many levels I'm not going to get into that discussion.

Whilst it is true that there are differences in how countries count Covid deaths (the UK for instance has long used the 28 day rule to trim our daily numbers) if you had any experience of the very thorough (almost pedantic) approach of the French public service bureaucracy or the excellent French health service (widely recognised as the best in the owrld) then you would not be questioning their figures and certainly not in comparison to the UK ones whose provenance has shown to be shakey on a number of occasions.

Either way tests are an indicator, mainly of trends or at the individual level an early warnings, deaths are definitive (and seriously ill patients in hospital is another better indicator than tests) and no amount of whataboutery explains away a near four fold difference between ourselves and our nearest neighbour.

I'm not suggesting there is a single factor, it may be because they've vaccinated more, they almost certainly have been better at containing the spread, they have a much better resourced health service - it is probably a combination of those and other factors but the actual outcome is very clear - they haven't got off lightly by any means but they are suffering less badly than us both now and cumulatively since the start of the pandemic.

From what I hear from friends etc, life has returned back to 'normal' (not really the right word but not sure what else to use) more in France than the UK. Presumably, not just their low official numbers but the public perception/experience of low case numbers is the key to this.

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According to the BBC, we are Europe's Covid hotspot. I have no idea if that is true but the mere mention of it makes me smile after all the gloating earlier about how well we had done and Europe was siht. Something to do with fat ladies I believe.

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3 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

From what I hear from friends etc, life has returned back to 'normal' (not really the right word but not sure what else to use) more in France than the UK. Presumably, not just their low official numbers but the public perception/experience of low case numbers is the key to this.

Where do you live if you don’t think life is back to normal in the Uk? Other than a percentage of people still choosing to wear masks in Sainsburys what’s not ‘normal’ now?

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I see you still just can't get your head around the fact that other countries are dealing with the pandemic better than we are.

The idea that the 'comparative testing regines' is key to understanding the actual death figures is ludicrous on so many levels I'm not going to get into that discussion.

No, the reason you are not getting into thst discussion is because you perhaps know that the daily death returns from any country are only as reliable and/or broad as its testing and reporting regime: Test more, find more as ricardo would succinctly put it.

Come back with a full description of a nation's testing and reporting regime and then weighted comparisons become possible but until then all we can really see in the data of other nations nations are trends.

You would have mocked Donald Trump on these very pages for putting forward the same fallacy as you now are. I suspect though that you are so blinded by your own prejudices that you cannot actually see this.

In the long run I reckon that mortality in France will be lower than in the UK and that the UK will be judged as an average performer, with its very exposed  position and intrinsic vulnerabilities being the only thing that saves it from from a far more damming verdict. But you were not talking about long run averages,  you were trying to snipe some points with tired old comparisons between two things that cannot really be compared.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

In the long run I reckon that mortality in France will be lower than in the UK and that the UK will be judged as an average performer, with its very exposed  position and intrinsic vulnerabilities being the only thing that saves it from from a far more damming verdict

I see the point you're making here BB and you're likely to be correct on the testing / number of infections ratio. Also it IS difficult to be able to compare. Yet, why cannot you and Creative Midfielder both be right? I disagree with you that our 'exposed position' is the 'only thing' that saves our response from a more damning analysis.

Think of the care homes issue (it will never be forgotten by relatives), think of the lack of preparedness before (The National Risk Register), the PPE issue, the scandal of contracts (the Good Law Project will be busy for years on this?), the political mixed messaging. The list might be longer. Look at the way the NHS has been used.

It will be reckoned with at some stage. You'll know my politics I'm sure and I won't bang on more about shortcomings (lots of administrations have been caught well off-guard) but i will praise the economic support and vaccine procurement. We know just how well the vaccine roll out has been (NHS and volunteers). The government has learnt I feel too - like many others.

Overall though, it hasn't been a sure-footed government managing this pandemic. I don't really believe anyone can say with hand on heart that this administration has managed the pandemic well. If they do, then likewise they will be 'blinded by prejudices' as you've stated. 

I copy here one report (from an Observer editorial...think it is a fair view). When the enquiry does come the truth will emerge. The trouble comes that when you're in the midst of something it is often hard to see the wood for the trees isn't it?

 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/30/the-observer-view-on-deadly-government-incompetence?

Edited by sonyc

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, sonyc said:

I see the point you're making here BB and you're likely to be correct on the testing / number of infections ratio. Also it IS difficult to be able to compare....

, the PPE issue, the scandal of contracts (the Good Law Project will be busy for years on this?), the political mixed messaging. The list might be longer. Look at the way the NHS has been used.

 

CM will be right that france will have a lower overall mortality.  Its the misuse of daily data that I object to.

On the PPE issue I am not sure what the good law project is really trying to do with its case.  If the intent is to make a point about transparency in decisions then fair enough but otherwise even if they are successful nothing will happen other than a judge will saysl the decision(s) were unlawful and the government will say 'we note the decision but disagree with the analysis, and anyway what do you expect in a pandemic'.  At this point everyone will move on to something else and forget about the case.

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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I don’t think you want to get too worked up about rates in other countries atm, we are all following different strategies, I’ve not been a supporter of ours, far from it, but the theory was we unlocked early and the subsequent wave of infection occurred during the summer and was heading downwards by the Winter. I never liked that idea as for me it allowed the level of infection to peak to high, I would have preferred a more gradual easing. It’s too early to say if our strategy is working but indicators atm seem to suggest it might just be, we are acquiring widespread herd immunity and as Spectre said last week, the best possible protection it seems you can have is infection followed by vaccination, not an I approach I would recommend though 😉

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Every global problem there is, we seem to get the worst of it in Western Europe First the recession in 2007, now this. At least it means heard immunity being built up I guess.

Wearing masks sucked, but sometimes we saw a funny side to it to soften the blow, such as when we were on our Falmouth pub crawl and in the last pub the maid maid came up to us, before saying “The manager says to put your masks on”, and when I put mine on the barmaid laughed and said “Looking good!”. Did also have fun with matching the mask pattern to my sweatshirt.

Am glad that’s over where I go out though, as if you’ve been double jabbed, it’s now an option in many of the pubs I’ve been to in recent times.

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3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

No, the reason you are not getting into thst discussion is because you perhaps know that the daily death returns from any country are only as reliable and/or broad as its testing and reporting regime: Test more, find more as ricardo would succinctly put it.

You are getting beyond ridiculous.

When Ricardo says 'Test more, find more' he is talking about the daily total of confirmed cases and of course his observation is correct, which is why I said that testing is useful and interesting but only to indicate trends and as an early warning at an individual level.

But to suggest that the reliability of the daily death returns is intrinsically linked to the test regime in place is one of the most ridiculous things you've ever come up with and not remotely worth debating.

Your premise seems to be that other countries appear to be doing much better than us with regard to Covid deaths because they are far less competent than the UK in diagnosing Covid and are therefore recognising and recording Covid deaths as such but as something else. If that is what you are suggesting then I would say:

  1. You are batsh*t crazy
  2. The excess deaths figures will prove you to be wrong

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National

33,950  - 133

rate of increase of 5.4% over 7 days

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     318.1  down 0.2% (7days) not updated today

16 patients in the N&N  5th Oct ( up 1 on previous report))

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      30,944             85.4% done                            Norwich numbers   74.5% 

2nd Dose     28,404             78.5% done                                                               67.9%

 

In Hospital (not updated today)

07-10-2021                                      6,763
06-10-2021 6,828
05-10-2021 6,850
04-10-2021 6,777
03-10-2021 6,592
02-10-2021 6,437

Only National cases and deaths updated so far

 

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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

If CM had said in the long run France  (or germany)  will return lower figures than the UK he will probably be proved right. 

 

Except that I did - 'the actual outcome is very clear - they haven't got off lightly by any means but they are suffering less badly than us both now and cumulatively since the start of the pandemic.'

But as usual when faced with something undeniable but inconvenient or unpalatable from your perspective, you always opt to simply ignore the point.

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17 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

You are getting beyond ridiculous.

 

When Ricardo says 'Test more, find more' he is talking about the daily total of confirmed cases and of course his observation is correct, which is why I said that testing is useful and interesting but only to indicate trends and as an early warning at an individual level.

 

But to suggest that the reliability of the daily death returns is intrinsically linked to the test regime in place is one of the most ridiculous things you've ever come up with and not remotely worth debating.

 

Your premise seems to be that other countries appear to be doing much better than us with regard to Covid deaths because they are far less competent than the UK in diagnosing Covid and are therefore recognising and recording Covid deaths as such but as something else. If that is what you are suggesting then I would say:

  1. You are batsh*t crazy
  2. The excess deaths figures will prove you to be wrong

Easy enough to find out

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Easy enough to find out

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Not sure if I'm misreading it but I set the weekly excess deaths to 2021 and seems to me we are pretty much in line with, if not better than, many European countries ???

Certainly seem to be better (lower average z score) than Spain, the Netherlands and Italy........and possibly Germany too ??

Happy to be corrected if I have read it wrong    

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

Not sure if I'm misreading it but I set the weekly excess deaths to 2021 and seems to me we are pretty much in line with, if not better than, many European countries ???

Certainly seem to be better (lower average z score) than Spain, the Netherlands and Italy........and possibly Germany too ??

Happy to be corrected if I have read it wrong    

Here you go Mark. UK quite behind Italy and Spain.

I tend to use Our World in Data for such sources. Good source for lots of things.

2021-10-05_14-07-36.jpg?itok=jwxTff3E

Edited by sonyc
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

👍 Plenty to chew on there, although the section on @Barbe bleu's sanity, or otherwise, seemed a little flimsy 😀

You are getting offensive now.  Wind your neck in.

I'll give a illustration.  In country (a) covid tests are readily available and routinely undertaken.  Unfortunately a man has terminal cancer and dies.  Just before his death he tests positive for covid and is recorded as a covid casualty.

In country (b) less value is placed on testing.  They are carried out where symptoms are present and worrying but otherwise they are not.  Unfortunately a man has terminal cancer and dies. Just before his death no covid test is carried out.   He is not recorded as a covid casualty.

I'll agree with you about excess deaths, it is this measure that will reveal which of the two approaches better  reveals the true state of the pandemic but your original post was not about excess deaths, this is something you have introduced just now (and with which I would fully agree)

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

Not sure if I'm misreading it but I set the weekly excess deaths to 2021 and seems to me we are pretty much in line with, if not better than, many European countries ???

Certainly seem to be better (lower average z score) than Spain, the Netherlands and Italy........and possibly Germany too ??

Happy to be corrected if I have read it wrong    

Can you say that again for CM's benefit?

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2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Not sure if I'm misreading it but I set the weekly excess deaths to 2021 and seems to me we are pretty much in line with, if not better than, many European countries ???

Certainly seem to be better (lower average z score) than Spain, the Netherlands and Italy........and possibly Germany too ??

Happy to be corrected if I have read it wrong    

I haven't looked at this for ages - but I think you can ONLY see 'weekly' z scores not cumulative. Choose your poison! Perhaps I'm playing with the site wrong too!

SonyC graphs look and feel correct.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

You are getting offensive now.  Wind your neck in.

I'll give a illustration.  In country (a) covid tests are readily available and routinely undertaken.  Unfortunately a man has terminal cancer and dies.  Just before his death he tests positive for covid and is recorded as a covid casualty.

In country (b) less value is placed on testing.  They are carried out where symptoms are present and worrying but otherwise they are not.  Unfortunately a man has terminal cancer and dies. Just before his death no covid test is carried out.   He is not recorded as a covid casualty.

I'll agree with you about excess deaths, it is this measure that will reveal which of the two approaches better  reveals the true state of the pandemic but your original post was not about excess deaths, this is something you have introduced just now (and with which I would fully agree)

 

Your examples are contrived, marginal and irrelevant, and in any case you have no evidence that there is any significant difference in testing strategy between the two countries I compared. But since you don't like the result of the comparison, you are groping for a very speculative and unsubstantiated explanation to replace the several factual explanations I provided.

But enough of that futile discussion - I did introduce excess deaths because you were trying to dispute other well founded statistics on very spurious grounds, and excess deaths are a measure over which there can be no real dispute - something which you have just acknowledged.

So if I scroll back a few posts I see that @Sonyc has very kindly posted a nice chart showing excess deaths in a variety  of European countries which shows very clearly that France, over the course the pandemic, has performed very much better than the UK (and to nobody's surprise Germany has performed better than both).

So maybe we can give up on the nonsense that the UK performance has been good, or even average. We are in the bottom group, struggling to avoid relegation, and it is long past time we should have a Public Enquiry running to produce an objective analysis of what has gone wrong and what should be done to fix it.

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Your examples are contrived, marginal and irrelevant, and in any case you have no evidence that there is any significant difference in testing strategy between the two countries I compared. But since you don't like the result of the comparison, you are groping for a very speculative and unsubstantiated explanation to replace the several factual explanations I provided.

I don't know any more about the testing regime in France (or anywhere else) than the details provided by ricardo. I've never claimed to either.

And nor do you.   And as it is you and not me that tried to compare figures I would say that the onus is on you to demonstrate why the figures are comparable. Otherwise its just a cheapshot by you and not robust debate.

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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12 hours ago, sonyc said:

Here you go Mark. UK quite behind Italy and Spain.

I tend to use Our World in Data for such sources. Good source for lots of things.

2021-10-05_14-07-36.jpg?itok=jwxTff3E

Thanks sonyc ...............that is much clearer

I guess the only issue around it is each countries method of recording Covid-19 deaths. I know for sure that Spain under-reported relevant deaths at the start of all this, it caused a huge amount of controversy amongst the Spanish people and in the media. Conversely, I seem to remember something about Belgium almost over-reporting their death figures.  

Edited by Mark .Y.

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National

34,574  - 38

rate of increase of 7.8% over 7 days

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     308.8  up 0.9% (7days)

16 patients in the N&N  5th Oct ( up 1 on previous report))

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      26,157             85.5% done                            Norwich numbers   74.6% 

2nd Dose     32,755             78.5% done                                                               68.5%

In Hospital

07-10-2021                                   6,763
06-10-2021 6,828
05-10-2021 6,850
04-10-2021 6,777
03-10-2021 6,592
02-10-2021 6,437
01-10-2021 6,590
30-09-2021 6,763

 

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On 07/10/2021 at 18:25, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think emergency opening hours for pubs was introduced during WW1.....and eventually relaxed at the end of the 1980's 

 

Did you realise this was a serious question? Emergency legislation introduced for the pandemic is still governing everything that is being done, sorry When, why and how something is being done, under this legislation. Has it been rescinded?

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21 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

Did you realise this was a serious question? Emergency legislation introduced for the pandemic is still governing everything that is being done, sorry When, why and how something is being done, under this legislation. Has it been rescinded?

Yes, I realised it was a serious question 

My point was that emergency legislation can take a long time to be reversed, though @Aggy has cast doubts on the accuracy of my recollection of the example I gave 

To be honest, I'm not sure what legislation you are referring to, as I haven't paid close enough attention to covid in the UK 😳

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Two graphs and data taken today from the Govt. Covid 'Daily Summary'.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

You can see at a stroke why I don't read too much into the headline 'daily' PCR confirmed tests as opposed to true random sampling -

People tested positive UP 7.8% on the week BUT virus tests conducted DOWN 14.2% on the week. I guess as per comments on testing in other countries  if you don't test you won't find. Seems that could apply to us as well.

Who are we fooling ? 

Cases

People tested positive

Latest data provided on 10 October 2021

Daily
34,574
Last 7 days
260,787
arrow 18,782 (7.8%)
Rate per 100,000 people:  348.3Graph - click for more details

Testing

Virus tests conducted

Latest data provided on 7 October 2021

Daily
962,225
Last 7 days
5,872,003
arrow -973,733 (-14.2%)

Graph - click for more details

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15 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Two graphs and data taken today from the Govt. Covid 'Daily Summary'.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

You can see at a stroke why I don't read too much into the headline 'daily' PCR confirmed tests as opposed to true random sampling -

People tested positive UP 7.8% on the week BUT virus tests conducted DOWN 14.2% on the week. I guess as per comments on testing in other countries  if you don't test you won't find. Seems that could apply to us as well.

Who are we fooling ? 

Cases

People tested positive

Latest data provided on 10 October 2021

Daily
34,574
Last 7 days
260,787
arrow 18,782 (7.8%)
Rate per 100,000 people:  348.3Graph - click for more details

Testing

Virus tests conducted

Latest data provided on 7 October 2021

Daily
962,225
Last 7 days
5,872,003
arrow -973,733 (-14.2%)

Graph - click for more details

I don’t think anyone is fooling or trying to fool anyone. I don’t think anyone is saying we haven’t got infections. We clearly have got high cases but hospitalisations haven’t followed. On that basis, why is there any need to try and fool people?

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18 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

Did you realise this was a serious question? Emergency legislation introduced for the pandemic is still governing everything that is being done, sorry When, why and how something is being done, under this legislation. Has it been rescinded?

Didn’t the measures all have a vote in Parliament after they were brought in (admittedly quite belatedly in a number of cases)? Wasn’t there a long stop date on the legislation? I’m not saying you’re wrong, just that I don’t know and have vague memories of these things from months and months ago. 

What emergency measures are currently in place / what emergency legislation is currently governing everything we do?

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National

40,244  - 28

rate of increase of 11.4% over 7 days waving slowly up and down for a couple of months now

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     308.8  down 3.3% (7days)

16 patients in the N&N  5th Oct ( up 1 on previous report))

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      22,106             85.5% done                            Norwich numbers   74.6% 

2nd Dose     19,451             78.6% done                                                               68%

In Hospital

08-10-2021                                        6,728
07-10-2021 6,770
06-10-2021 6,832
05-10-2021 6,852
04-10-2021 6,780
03-10-2021 6,594
02-10-2021 6,439
01-10-2021 6,592
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