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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Sure I will get some stick for saying this but in the rich countries Pfizer, Moderna mainly and Johnson and Johnson have become the vaccines of choice. 

I'm sure you're right, I've not kept up to speed with the level of side effects being reported for the different vaccines.  But let's face it, the level of side effects have been tiny given the vast number of vaccine doses given worldwide and I'm pretty sure we'd have heard about it if any of the others did produce common side effects.  But it does seem AZ has some side effects among some groups with very low risk from Covid, such as women in their 20s with no underlying conditions.  So for them it clearly makes sense to have Pfizer not AZ, and I work with some people in that age group who have made exactly that decision this week, and it's fair enough.  I had AZ and I was happy it was available at the time.

 

Plenty of other medicines have side effects which we ignore just because of familiarity e.g. someone mentioned the risks from a long course of aspirin but no one would blink an eye at being prescribed that.

 

 

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I mentioned a couple of hours ago the latest Israel data released yesterday which included how they gently persuaded the younger population to have the vaccine ie you can’t do particular things unless you have both vaccinations. As if by chance the government have just announced how they are looking at less restrictions for those double vaccinated going abroad.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

I mentioned a couple of hours ago the latest Israel data released yesterday which included how they gently persuaded the younger population to have the vaccine ie you can’t do particular things unless you have both vaccinations. As if by chance the government have just announced how they are looking at less restrictions for those double vaccinated going abroad.

Latest from the BBC (minutes ago) indicates the spread amongst the youngest. I am becoming more hopeful now that vaccinations are opening up to over 18's that we will see quite a turning point. Hopefully, only a very 'shallow' third wave as a result.

The growth rate is slowing too.

 

 

The Covid-19 epidemic in England is growing, scientists tracking it say - with much of it being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated.

The analysis, from the React-1 study, looked at the period 20 May to 7 June.

However, tentative signs in the latest daily data suggest growth may be beginning to slow.

The rollout of vaccinations to younger people is key to reducing further spread, researchers from Imperial College London say.

Since last year, the team has been inviting a representative sample of the population to take Covid swab tests. The researachers found:

  • of the 108,911 people tested, 135 were positive - a rise from 0.1% to 0.15%
  • most cases were among five- to 12-year-olds and 18- to 24-year-olds
  • the reproduction (R) number, of people the average infected person would infect, was an estimated 1.44

The analysis also suggests a strengthening link between cases and hospital admissions, which is also reflected in the government's daily coronavirus data.

The number of new infections is rising, with a seven-day average of 7,888 cases. The UK recorded 9,055 cases on Wednesday - the highest number since 9,985 were reported on 25 February.

The number of hospitalisations has also increased, with 1,177 patients in hospital as of Monday. However, daily deaths remain low, with a weekly average of nine deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

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11,007 cases reported in the UK

It still makes no odds to me how these daily numbers bounce around and shouldn't be overinterpreted good or bad. ONS random sampling please.

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3 hours ago, sonyc said:

Latest from the BBC (minutes ago) indicates the spread amongst the youngest. I am becoming more hopeful now that vaccinations are opening up to over 18's that we will see quite a turning point. Hopefully, only a very 'shallow' third wave as a result.

The growth rate is slowing too.

 

 

The Covid-19 epidemic in England is growing, scientists tracking it say - with much of it being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated.

The analysis, from the React-1 study, looked at the period 20 May to 7 June.

However, tentative signs in the latest daily data suggest growth may be beginning to slow.

The rollout of vaccinations to younger people is key to reducing further spread, researchers from Imperial College London say.

Since last year, the team has been inviting a representative sample of the population to take Covid swab tests. The researachers found:

  • of the 108,911 people tested, 135 were positive - a rise from 0.1% to 0.15%
  • most cases were among five- to 12-year-olds and 18- to 24-year-olds
  • the reproduction (R) number, of people the average infected person would infect, was an estimated 1.44

The analysis also suggests a strengthening link between cases and hospital admissions, which is also reflected in the government's daily coronavirus data.

The number of new infections is rising, with a seven-day average of 7,888 cases. The UK recorded 9,055 cases on Wednesday - the highest number since 9,985 were reported on 25 February.

The number of hospitalisations has also increased, with 1,177 patients in hospital as of Monday. However, daily deaths remain low, with a weekly average of nine deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

Sensible analysis for me. So as we know, it’s a race between getting the 18+ range vaccinated twice and the level of spread - and how far do cases translate into hospitalisation now, given the most vulnerable should be vaccinated.

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8 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Sensible analysis for me. So as we know, it’s a race between getting the 18+ range vaccinated twice and the level of spread - and how far do cases translate into hospitalisation now, given the most vulnerable should be vaccinated.

Yes, and you'd hope that in a months time (interestingly, around the expected relaxation date) some 75% of the population will have had two jabs. It should be a pivot point.

I read Whitty today also expects a 4th phase of increase in winter. I would hope we will hear soon how the government might plan for this (boosters etc) because Winter will come round soon enough 😳 anyway).

 

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National

11007 - 19

rate of increase as yesterday

numbers bumped up by big input from Scotland

Local

image.png.2f157b80f29b1f0c2be973e32007b7f5.png

image.thumb.png.b3d0490ef603d368aef600de3fa02a95.png

image.thumb.png.3d9564eb82b316bca98fc2322646e102.png

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Van wink said:

North Norfolk seems to have become a hotspot with Zoe? 
 

image.png

Oh dear.

I was in the Wiveton Bell for lunch

Edited by ricardo

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Yes, and you'd hope that in a months time (interestingly, around the expected relaxation date) some 75% of the population will have had two jabs. It should be a pivot point.

I read Whitty today also expects a 4th phase of increase in winter. I would hope we will hear soon how the government might plan for this (boosters etc) because Winter will come round soon enough 😳 anyway).

 

I did wonder if the sudden daily increase above any trends was simply schools back after half term amd testing again.

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18 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I did wonder if the sudden daily increase above any trends was simply schools back after half term amd testing again.

Birmingham just advised on local news recommendation of essential travel only as a 40% increase in last week ( mainly delta ).
A big problem is the symptoms of Delta seem very different to the original symptoms, with delta apparently it is more common to have a runny nose, sore throat or headache. Plenty of people therefore happily out and about without testing spreading their hay fever symptoms.

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7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Birmingham just advised on local news recommendation of essential travel only as a 40% increase in last week ( mainly delta ).
A big problem is the symptoms of Delta seem very different to the original symptoms, with delta apparently it is more common to have a runny nose, sore throat or headache. Plenty of people therefore happily out and about without testing spreading their hay fever symptoms.

Agreed. I'd alluded to the same thing yesterday as changed its spots....

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4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Agreed. I'd alluded to the same thing yesterday as changed its spots....

Don’t worry Hancock will think to tell us in a couple of months, can’t believe this is not being putting into the public domain, unless of course they are happy for delta to spread amongst the younger groups who are less likely to have the vaccine, and under 18’s who can’t.

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Just now, Well b back said:

Don’t worry Hancock will think to tell us in a couple of months, can’t believe this is not being putting into the public domain, unless of course they are happy for delta to spread amongst the younger groups who are less likely to have the vaccine, and under 18’s who can’t.

Yes they need to publicise this. Sore throat, runny nose... get tested. Sorry this was all part of why I like the random tests. It sees past these issues and even asymptomatic cases.

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Just now, Well b back said:

Don’t worry Hancock will think to tell us in a couple of months, can’t believe this is not being putting into the public domain, unless of course they are happy for delta to spread amongst the younger groups who are less likely to have the vaccine, and under 18’s who can’t.

Well it would achieve natural herd immunity in that age group! 😉😂 Let’s be sensible, not massive increase as predicted two weeks ago, the majority are in age groups not at any real risk and the vaccines certainly appear to be holding up as we all hoped.

Sensible measures in hotspots needed and I’d go as far as to offer AZ to ages 18 and above as an option to speed it vaccinations!

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1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes they need to publicise this. Sore throat, runny nose... get tested. Sorry this was all part of why I like the random tests. It sees past these issues and even asymptomatic cases.

Indeed, the trouble is it’s hay fever time and same symptoms! 🤔

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Getting confused with all these numbers, percentages and graphs, Who is winning, vaccine or virus ?

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

Getting confused with all these numbers, percentages and graphs, Who is winning, vaccine or virus ?

Approaching Becher's Brook for the second time...........evidence atm is good for the vaccine, the jockey is still in the saddle and is riding the horse. Just dont want to blow it by the jockey taking the lead too early.

Edited by Van wink

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Posted (edited)

"Prof Whitty said there are areas of deprivation which have been repeatedly impacted by Covid-19.

“The geographical areas where Covid has hit have been extremely defined, where the biggest problems have been repeated.

“So, you see in situations in Bradford, in Leicester, in bits of London for example, in bits of the north west, you see repeated areas where places have been hit over and over again in areas of deprivation.

“Indeed in many of them, if you had a map of Covid’s biggest effects now and a map of child deaths in 1850, they look remarkably similar.

“These are areas where deprivation has been prolonged and deeply entrenched.”

He said the NHS needs to look at these areas and say “look, whatever happens, it’s going to happen badly here” whether it’s cardiovascular disease, cancer, or new infections."

Thats a pretty damning indictment of our attempts ( or lack of ) to deal with poverty, deprivation and failures in Public Health over a century and a half. These are not issues we have been unaware of but issues we have failed to address.

Edited by Van wink
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3 hours ago, Indy said:

Well it would achieve natural herd immunity in that age group! 😉😂 Let’s be sensible, not massive increase as predicted two weeks ago, the majority are in age groups not at any real risk and the vaccines certainly appear to be holding up as we all hoped.

Sensible measures in hotspots needed and I’d go as far as to offer AZ to ages 18 and above as an option to speed it vaccinations!

Interesting, it is my understanding and maybe I have it wrong that with the 2nd dose time scale reduced to 7-8 weeks and the government target of all second doses giving to the high risk categories by 19/7 we need large reserves of the Oxford vaccine so that second doses are prioritised. There should be no shortage of Pfizer as huge quantities are being made in the US and EU of which the US are using very little as a high % are yet to be persuaded to take the vaccines. We have just bought 60m more doses of Pfizer. Again as I understand it the EU are using very little Oxford yet are approaching 4.5 million doses per day and yesterday overtook the US in total doses issued ( 315 m to 314 m ). In addition I know lots of 18 - 24 year olds who are well happy to have their Pfizer jab ( they need to get abroad and to music festivals ) but would think about it if they had to have the Oxford vaccine ( my only evidence for that is our youngest son, his friends and people of that age I work with and meet in my job ).

As I say this is my understanding.

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As I have said the missing part of the jigsaw is treatments and now the US think that by winter they will have cures.

The U.S. invests billions in antiviral drugs

The U.S. will spend $3.2 billion on a new federal program to support the development of antiviral pills, which would fight the coronavirus early in the course of infection, potentially saving many lives in the years to come.

The program will speed up the clinical trials of a few promising drug candidates. If all goes well, some of those first pills could be ready by the end of the year.

The hope “is that we can get an antiviral by the end of the fall that can help us close out this chapter of the epidemic,” said Dr. David Kessler, the chief science officer of the Biden administration’s Covid-19 response team.

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23 minutes ago, Well b back said:

As I have said the missing part of the jigsaw is treatments and now the US think that by winter they will have cures.

The U.S. invests billions in antiviral drugs

The U.S. will spend $3.2 billion on a new federal program to support the development of antiviral pills, which would fight the coronavirus early in the course of infection, potentially saving many lives in the years to come.

The program will speed up the clinical trials of a few promising drug candidates. If all goes well, some of those first pills could be ready by the end of the year.

The hope “is that we can get an antiviral by the end of the fall that can help us close out this chapter of the epidemic,” said Dr. David Kessler, the chief science officer of the Biden administration’s Covid-19 response team.

There has always been a pretty limited choice of antiviral drugs so hopefully the research and development will  have spin off benefits for the treatment of a whole range of viral infections, if we can afford the drugs of course!

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Van wink said:

"Prof Whitty said there are areas of deprivation which have been repeatedly impacted by Covid-19.

“The geographical areas where Covid has hit have been extremely defined, where the biggest problems have been repeated.

“So, you see in situations in Bradford, in Leicester, in bits of London for example, in bits of the north west, you see repeated areas where places have been hit over and over again in areas of deprivation.

“Indeed in many of them, if you had a map of Covid’s biggest effects now and a map of child deaths in 1850, they look remarkably similar.

“These are areas where deprivation has been prolonged and deeply entrenched.”

He said the NHS needs to look at these areas and say “look, whatever happens, it’s going to happen badly here” whether it’s cardiovascular disease, cancer, or new infections."

Thats a pretty damning indictment of our attempts ( or lack of ) to deal with poverty, deprivation and failures in Public Health over a century and a half. These are not issues we have been unaware of but issues we have failed to address.

Indeed. Spot on. And it's why this 'levelling up' will remain just a slogan. Have lived now over 40 years in one of those districts. In fact, I've personally been involved in public service jobs (with countless other colleagues) where we've tried to make a difference, both regionally and locally. And 40 years of attempts have failed let me tell you. My career has been a failure on that level (I ought to note I won't be too hard on myself because on a one to one or individual level  I dedicated myself to always do my best). But, the answer, the solution is a structural one. Only temporarily can change be made. It never lasts because of prevailing socio economic conditions. It's framed my whole world view. 

Now I know why the miners in Wales and Yorkshire fought and lost their 'war' (even though you could argue they gained communities and other important things in life). It's why Marmot is worth listening to and countless other anthropologists and longitudinal studies. Norfolk has its rougher areas but will always be more blessed than say metropolitan parts of West Yorkshire.

We need a massive campaign to find new purposes for places. We need not a conservative or a labour answer to all this inequality but a whole change in mindset about what we want a country to be like. Such health and economic differences and chasms in inequality do none of us any good in the long term. Everyone is affected (apart from the super rich). 

This bl00dy pandemic has exposed all this even more. But my idealism is for once deserting me because I don't yet see any change on the horizon. Indeed I see the opposite with this current administration.

One little light this morning is the by election result. That seems like the people have tactically said enough is enough. There IS a decent country there underneath this all. The volunteerism is another 'movement' that is a force for good. The NHS another (I had to finish on a positive).

Anyway I ought now to be having my morning coffee (probably tea actually) and relax a bit!

Edited by sonyc
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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Indeed. Spot on. And it's why this 'levelling up' will remain just a slogan. Have lived now over 40 years in one of those districts. In fact, I've personally been involved in public service jobs (with countless other colleagues) where we've tried to make a difference, both regionally and locally. And 40 years of attempts have failed let me tell you. My career has been a failure on that level (I ought to note I won't be too hard on myself because on a one to one or individual level  I dedicated myself to always do my best). But, the answer, the solution is a structural one. Only temporarily can change be made. It never lasts because of prevailing socio economic conditions. It's framed my whole world view. 

Now I know why the miners in Wales and Yorkshire fought and lost their 'war' (even though you could argue they gained communities and other important things in life). It's why Marmot is worth listening to and countless other anthropologists and longitudinal studies. Norfolk has its rougher areas but will always be more blessed than say metropolitan parts of West Yorkshire.

We need a massive campaign to find new purposes for places. We need not a conservative or a labour answer to all this inequality but a whole change in mindset about what we want a country to be like. Such health and economic differences and chasms in inequality do none of us any good in the long term. Everyone is affected (apart from the super rich). 

This bl00dy pandemic has exposed all this even more. But my idealism is for once deserting me because I don't yet see any change on the horizon. Indeed I see the opposite with this current administration.

One little light this morning is the by election result. That seems like the people have tactically said enough is enough. There IS a decent country there underneath this all. The volunteerism is another 'movement' that is a force for good. The NHS another (I had to finish on a positive).

Anyway I ought now to be having my morning coffee (probably tea actually) and relax a bit!

Where is the Big Society or the One Nation now? Swept up with all the other discarded promises.

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2 hours ago, sonyc said:

 

One little light this morning is the by election result. That seems like the people have tactically said enough is enough. There IS a decent country there underneath this all. The volunteerism is another 'movement' that is a force for good. The NHS another (I had to finish on a positive).

 

Totally agree.

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Whiity at it again today, fourth wave on the way, seems the tide is always coming in.

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8 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Whiity at it again today, fourth wave on the way, seems the tide is always coming in.

I think he's more Cnut that the reversal of the middle two letters. If the waves are coming in, they're coming in, best we make sure the sea defences are up to the job this time.

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