Corona Virus main thread

[CANARYKING 634]

At what level do we accept the daily death figures and move on ? Surely there are more for flu ?

[Herman 9,717]

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

12 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

At what level do we accept the daily death figures and move on ? Surely there are more for flu ?

we've arguably been at an "acceptable level" for a while now. The problem is isn't the figures today though, its the potential.

There's the fear that if we just sacked off all the distancing efforts things would quickly spiral out of control.

The current tactic appears to be to vaccinate everyone we can and then take the breaks off to a point where there'd never be any surges capable of hitting the heights of last march or Jan this year or worse. Clearly variants complicate this strategy but we don't really know to what extent.

I have a feeling they'll screw with the June plan to completely cancel restrictions and we'll be living with some moderate restrictions for at least until next spring at which point vaccines directly targeted at new variants could complete the job.

Of course the variant problem may yet be overblown and we see a huge decoupling of cases to serious illness/death to a point where we can confidently take the brakes off.

There is only so far the virus can mutate since it needs to keep certain properties for the spike protein to bind to what it needs to in our bodies and do what it does. E484k was a significant mutation in this regard and hopefully was its best card it could play.

It does kind of mean we need to keep cases low rather than just "vaccinate the vulnerable and crack on" but there's only so long the most invasive of NPIs will be tolerated. Another long winter lockdown would be far too damaging to be viable.

Since some countries don't have the means/desire to lockdown and will be slow to vaccinate, covid 19 isn't going away any time soon. This is where the #zerocovid argument gets lost. Once it's embedded its basically impossible to fully eradicate any time soon and even if you do, it can easily come back from 1 dodgy lapse like we saw in Isle of Man. Our vaccination campaign may yet surprise us but for me, Israel has to be the target since the New Zealand ship likely sailed last Feb.

That said, we "live with" far worse diseases than Covid that have had minimal impact on our day to day lives, we just need the vaccines and treatments to do the heavy lifting for us ASAP rather than mandatory NPI's. Saying that, I'd imagine this pandemic has changed everyone's behavior forever to varying degrees.

Edited April 11, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

 

This is great news. The EU generally seems to be getting the vaccine programme properly into gear and will I think end up with enough people vaccinated to get Covid under control albeit a few months behind the UK. The sooner that happens the better for everyone including us.

 

FWIW last couple of references I’ve heard in uk media to France’s vaccination programme have been positive, and their “record” of 500k doses per day is very much business as usual in the UK, but what matters is that they’re now getting there.

[Well b back 3,190]

3 hours ago, Herman said:

 

India reach the land mark of 100 million doses given, Europe a week tomorrow will follow America with large quantities of Johnson and Johnson being used, which is as you will be aware a one dose vaccination. To show how quick things are moving now after a few days of reporting 700 million reached throughout the world we should crash through 800 million tonight.

Fact of the day - India’s version of vaccine scarcity - they have 40 million in ‘ reserve ‘.

[Herman 9,717]

Cheers lads. Pete won't give us any more reactions so these will have to do.👍👍👍

[Barbe bleu 816]

3 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

...Clearly variants complicate this strategy but we don't really know to what extent.

I have a feeling they'll screw with the June plan to completely cancel restrictions and we'll be living with some moderate restrictions for at least until next spring at which point vaccines directly targeted at new variants could complete the job.

Of course the variant problem may yet be overblown and we see a huge decoupling of cases to serious illness/death to a point where we can confidently take the brakes off.

There is only so far the virus can mutate since it needs to keep certain properties for the spike protein to bind to what it needs to in our bodies and do what it does. E484k was a significant mutation in this regard and hopefully was its best card it could play.

The stats seems to suggest that the rate of spread of the e484k variants is no greater than that of kent.  If it was the super immunity evading mutation we all feared this is an odd statistic.

It could of course be the extra vigilance and surge testing thst were adopted to these variants but I do find the figures somewhat reassuring

 

 

Edited April 11, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[Tetteys Jig 830]

8 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The stats seems to suggest that the rate of spread of the e484k variants is no greater than that of kent.  If it was the super immunity evading mutation we all feared this is an odd statistic.

It could of course be the extra vigilance and surge testing thst were adopted to these variants but I do find the figures somewhat reassuring

 

 

as do I, until we actually see how things are when we open up its gonna be one for debate. Doubt that will ever go away really, there'll always be people on one side who insist we could have gone for zero covid and point at New Zealand and South East Asia and people on the other who say we should have just let it go and then point at Texas, Florida and co. Funny how one point Brazil and Czech Republic were the go to for opposite reasons and now look at them.

Apparently US approach is now Zero Covid anyway so its gone full circle 🤷‍♂️ I never did get an answer to what actions they were actually taking that signalled they are going for zero covid... maybe I've just "not been paying attention" as I was crudely told on here the other day...

Of them all, JVT and Chris Whitty seem to have the right words to listen to

Edited April 11, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,182]

Herd immunity in the UK due to be reached Tomorrow?

 

[Barbe bleu 816]

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

 

Apparently US approach is now Zero Covid anyway so its gone full circle 🤷‍♂️ I never did get an answer to what actions they were actually taking that signalled they are going for zero covid... maybe I've just "not been paying attention" as I was crudely told on here the other day...

 

Politics in the age of twitter.  It doesn't actually matter what you do and you couldnt explain it in 140 characters anyway.

  It's enough for most social media warriors that you state your subscription to a particular tribe. Doing doing anything in a particular direction is just a bonus.

[Barbe bleu 816]

1 hour ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Herd immunity in the UK due to be reached Tomorrow?

 

Not sure about the article.  Herd immunity is reached where R <1 with completely free mixing but the second paragraph says that we shouldn't give up measures as the threshold will go up.

By this definition we are at herd immunity level at any point where the disease is in decline. Clearly that's a nonsense definition.

 

[CANARYKING 634]

Does anybody think there will ever come a time when mask wearing will end for good ?

[Indy 3,286]

2 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Does anybody think there will ever come a time when mask wearing will end for good ?

Yes.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

49 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Does anybody think there will ever come a time when mask wearing will end for good ?

mandatory? yes, widespread voluntary? no

[ricardo 7,348]

National

1730 - 7

Local

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Herd immunity but not as we know it Jim.

There has to be a measure of protecting ourselves until a killer vaccine is found.

[Barbe bleu 816]

31 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Herd immunity but not as we know it Jim.

There has to be a measure of protecting ourselves until a killer vaccine is found.

Some people on social media will say AZ have already found the killer vaccine....

[Van wink 2,994]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

1730 - 7

Local

475K second doses, incredible numbers again, well done to all concerned 👍

[Well b back 3,190]

Apple and google have blocked the venue check in scan by the looks of it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56713017

[Well b back 3,190]

Here’s some good news I reported a few weeks ago about why it was thought asthma sufferers were not getting as bad as they maybe should have. The drug they use has now gone through Oxford tests.

Asthma drug 'could shorten recovery time' in the community

A widely available inhaled asthma drug could shorten Covid recovery time for people who are not admitted to hospital, a new study suggests. 

Researchers say the discovery is a "significant milestone" and the drug, budesonide, is effective as a treatment at home and during the early stages of the illness.

Early treatment with the drugs shortens recovery time by an average of three days for Covid patients who are at higher risk of more severe illness and are being treated in the community, according to the research. 

Budesonide was added to the Oxford University's Platform Randomised Trial of Interventions against Covid-19 in Older People (Principle) trial in November last year.

Experts suggest medical practitioners around the world may wish to consider the results of the study, which is yet to be peer reviewed, when making treatment decisions.

 

[ricardo 7,348]

National

3568 - 13

Local

 

[sonyc 5,492]

The WHO is still sounding a serious warning as cases continue to rise 'exponentially' across the world. Interesting links and stories about Turkey, Canada also at the bottom of the article below. Measures and approaches worldwide are so different of course.

Good news for the UK for now is our vaccination efforts. We are ahead of many countries in a good way.

Yet, we urgently need the world to catch up. Gordon Brown's proposal was a good one on vaccine sharing. 

Article for interest here (my reading this morning!):

Coronavirus pandemic ‘a long way from over’: WHO | Coronavirus pandemic News | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/12/coronavirus-pandemic-a-long-way-from-over-who

 

 

[Well b back 3,190]

@sonyc

Well I can give you some good news globally U.K. and treatment.

Today will see the world passing the 800 million doses ( of course they lag a day so we were there yesterday ). 
Despite Moy telling us of U.K. shortages you will see as I said that from the 9/4 we begin to pick back up again. Today sees the over 45’s being called forward, great for us U.K. citizens.

To break another Moy myth the EU vaccinated close on 2.5 million yesterday, so their programme is now well back on track and sees the launch of the single dose Johnson and Johnson on the 19/4. 
Another potential treatment has been discovered that is currently being trialled as prevention. 
 

• An antibody cocktail developed by Regeneron offered strong protection against Covid-19 when given to people living with someone infected with the coronavirus, according to clinical trial results.

I will finish on a negative unfortunately with Fauci advising it is highly unlikely the US will ever use the Oxford vaccine. They have a huge stockpile, let’s hope it gets used rather than dumped.

[Well b back 3,190]

24 minutes ago, sonyc said:

The WHO is still sounding a serious warning as cases continue to rise 'exponentially' across the world. Interesting links and stories about Turkey, Canada also at the bottom of the article below. Measures and approaches worldwide are so different of course.

Good news for the UK for now is our vaccination efforts. We are ahead of many countries in a good way.

Yet, we urgently need the world to catch up. Gordon Brown's proposal was a good one on vaccine sharing. 

Article for interest here (my reading this morning!):

Coronavirus pandemic ‘a long way from over’: WHO | Coronavirus pandemic News | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/12/coronavirus-pandemic-a-long-way-from-over-who

 

 

That’s an interesting article re trying to get manufacture into Africa. You maybe aware as the US would not let Pfizer and Moderna sign deals for manufacture with India, those plants will now be used to manufacture Sputnik after a deal was signed with Russia. They aim to produce 1/2 billion doses, with Russia’s aim to vaccinate 10% of the world population.

Gordon Brown is repeating what Johnson said in June where he stated any country doing below 50’s would be immoral until done throughout the world and saying the same as Brown, so I certainly can’t see that happening. I think there will be words of intent to make it look like that’s happening, but it won’t happen until after all citizens of the 7 are vaccinated. Only time will tell if the vaccine nationalism will have an effect on the world or not. If there is a positive, I think there is more vaccine being manufactured than anyone thought possible, and because of this the US, U.K. EU China ect will be vaccinated far quicker than it seemed likely in December.

[Well b back 3,190]

Slightly worrying the South African variant has possibly ( I repeat possibly ) taken a hold in Wandsworth. The scientist on radio 4 had this to say

if the South Africa variant has really taken off - and we will know in the next two to three weeks - then the rest of reopening might have to be paused, he adds.

[sonyc 5,492]

33 minutes ago, Well b back said:

That’s an interesting article re trying to get manufacture into Africa. You maybe aware as the US would not let Pfizer and Moderna sign deals for manufacture with India, those plants will now be used to manufacture Sputnik after a deal was signed with Russia. They aim to produce 1/2 billion doses, with Russia’s aim to vaccinate 10% of the world population.

Gordon Brown is repeating what Johnson said in June where he stated any country doing below 50’s would be immoral until done throughout the world and saying the same as Brown, so I certainly can’t see that happening. I think there will be words of intent to make it look like that’s happening, but it won’t happen until after all citizens of the 7 are vaccinated. Only time will tell if the vaccine nationalism will have an effect on the world or not. If there is a positive, I think there is more vaccine being manufactured than anyone thought possible, and because of this the US, U.K. EU China ect will be vaccinated far quicker than it seemed likely in December.

Thanks WBB. It appears that manufacturing rates will be key and despite protectionism (which I understand is bound to happen) then there may come a 'tipping point' where there will be greater immunity or at least suppression. I fear we are some way off yet but hopefully 2021 will see that happening. 

The World Service this weekend had a horrifying story of what's happening in Brazil. At least 50% of those hospitalised are under 40 and with no pre existing conditions. A variant (CP1 or something like that if memory is correct?) is responsible. Lots of worry for the rest of South America of course as well as the US.

We're definitely not out of the woods and just hope we don't have a repeat of 2020 in the era of EO to HO. Time will tell. In the meantime the 40 plus group vaccinations are a major boost, let alone second jabs (a month away now for me).

[Aggy 752]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Thanks WBB. It appears that manufacturing rates will be key and despite protectionism (which I understand is bound to happen) then there may come a 'tipping point' where there will be greater immunity or at least suppression. I fear we are some way off yet but hopefully 2021 will see that happening. 

The World Service this weekend had a horrifying story of what's happening in Brazil. At least 50% of those hospitalised are under 40 and with no pre existing conditions. A variant (CP1 or something like that if memory is correct?) is responsible. Lots of worry for the rest of South America of course as well as the US.

We're definitely not out of the woods and just hope we don't have a repeat of 2020 in the era of EO to HO. Time will tell. In the meantime the 40 plus group vaccinations are a major boost, let alone second jabs (a month away now for me).

From September to February under 40s made up around 45 per cent of people hospitalised in Brazil, now up to 52.2 per cent.

Numbers of over 80s in hospitals in Brazil dropped from 13.6 percent to 7.8.

The more elderly people you vaccinate, the fewer are hospitalised, the larger the percentage of younger unvaccinated people becomes. 

[Barbe bleu 816]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

Slightly worrying the South African variant has possibly ( I repeat possibly ) taken a hold in Wandsworth. The scientist on radio 4 had this to say

if the South Africa variant has really taken off - and we will know in the next two to three weeks - then the rest of reopening might have to be paused, he adds.

The question here is has this variant burnt through immunity gained by infection or vacvination or has it spread in the immune naive.  Very different prospects and solutions in the two cases.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

Here is a great debate about vaccine ID passports pr such like. I'm sure that some here have some familiarity with that debate.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/04/domestic-covid-19-identity-documents-must-be-resisted

 

And apart from some decent Haiku's there are some links which throw up some serious questions about the vaccines, the companies that make them and data wit held from the public.

https://www.deconstructingconventional.com/post/18-reason-i-won-t-be-getting-a-covid-vaccine

[ricardo 7,348]

I can't vouch for this but ive seen a post on the internet that US regulators are recommending a pause in J &J jabs due to reports of blood clots. Not good news if confirmed.