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An interesting study:-

"Denmark ready for quick unlocking as experts say risk of third Covid wave is low

Nine of country's 10 political parties backed wide-ranging plan that would see majority of restrictions removed by end of May

Denmark, long an advocate of a cautious approach to Covid, is ready to take a "calculated risk" and unlock quickly in the spring after scientists said the risk of a third wave is low.

Last week, nine of the country's 10 political parties voted to back a wide-ranging plan that would see the majority of restrictions on normal life removed by the end of May, coinciding with vaccines having been offered to all over-50s.

That is in contrast to Britain, which should reach the same vaccines landmark by mid-April but will not fully remove restrictions until late June, when the entire adult population will have been offered a first dose.

Starting on April 6 with the reopening of hairdressers, restrictions in Denmark will be eased every two weeks, with larger shopping centres allowed to open from April 21 and indoor dining returning from May 6.

Danish officials are aware that the unlocking is likely to lead to an increase in Covid infections and hospitalisations but believe the problem is manageable.

Discussing the first stage of lockdown easing in late February, Mette Frederiksen, the prime minister, said: "We are taking a calculated risk. The lockdown is starting to have very grave consequences. But the reopening comes with a price – the more you reopen, the more people will be infected and the more people will be hospitalised."

People queue for Covid vaccinations at a centre in Copenhagen earlier this month Credit: Ole Jensen/Getty Images Europe

Denmark's confidence stems from the solidity of its test and trace system and the impact of vaccines on hospitalisations, said Prof Christian Wejse, a specialist in infectious diseases at Aarhus University and an adviser to the Danish government on contact tracing.

"Offering vaccines to all above 50 – that's about 40 per cent of the population," he said. "Although that is far from herd immunity, it is still something that is likely to take a lot of steam off the epidemic."

The country is operating what he called a "very heavy testing regimen", including twice-weekly testing for those who go to work.

Denmark's contact tracing has proved its worth just months after being overwhelmed by the country's second wave. Despite schools for younger children and most shops reopening in February, there have been eight weeks of relatively low infections.

"We've put a lot of extra effort into contact tracing, so it's been possible to shut down most of the outbreaks we've had," said Prof Wesje.

A "corona passport" scheme will also be in place, requiring people to have been vaccinated or tested negative in the previous 72 hours to access certain public spaces such as restaurants and barbers.

Unlike in the UK, politicians are not targeting irreversibility in their erasing of restrictions. If hospitalisations head back to January's peak, when close to 1,000 patients were in Danish hospitals with Covid, restrictions will snap back.

Nevertheless, expectations are positive. "I think we all expect to be more or less done with this when we get closer to herd immunity," said Prof Wejse."

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29 minutes ago, Van wink said:

An interesting study:-

"Denmark ready for quick unlocking as experts say risk of third Covid wave is low

Nine of country's 10 political parties backed wide-ranging plan that would see majority of restrictions removed by end of May

 

Whatever course is taken some will think it is too slow and some too fast.

There is no course which will command 100% support.

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37 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Whatever course is taken some will think it is too slow and some too fast.

There is no course which will command 100% support.

I'd take 90% any day. Unless of course its China and Russia where every political decision is well over 100%🤐

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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Close on 700k jabs yesterday I hear.👍

650K and of those 250K second jabs, great stuff

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56 minutes ago, Van wink said:

650K and of those 250K second jabs, great stuff

Actually 695k

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1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Actually 695k

Even better, I need to work on my rounding😀

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So, Novavax are apparently reluctant to sign a contract with the EU for their vaccine due to the way that the EU have behaved with AstraZeneca, which I did opine a few days ago, and this guy appears to agree.  Quelle Surprise !!  🤗

... and an unfortunate mistype in the Express names the leader of the EU as Ursulka von der Leyen... which they have now corrected 🤣

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1415796/brexit-news-uk-trade-deals-outside-eu-vaccine-war-revenge

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3 hours ago, Herman said:

Thanks Herman.  We dont get much of the EU view on this here.

Problem is that all journalists are working in an information vacuum and this is as clear in vaccine figures as anything. What we get then  I think,  is the journalist's prior opinion with a  cloak of statistics laid on top but with little further analysis.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Herman said:

It’s a decent read and certainly shows how each area has gone about it, it should be highlighted that some EU countries are doing better than others. As I have connections back in my second home who tell me as it is, it’s not just vaccines but the set up in each country doesn’t have a set up like our NHS, they don’t have surgeries in each village and it has been a new learning on how to administer the vaccines to rural areas where 40% of the population live.

Add to this a strong mistrust of the current government set up, misinformation about the vaccines on social media, its been a combination of lots of different obstacles which has to be overcome. But as time has rolled by the learning is now being implemented and the vaccine roll out is picking up, but it’s highlighted that there will be a few countries which after the Covid virus is under control will then be in transition with potential for protests and clashes resembling the late 80’s, certainly Poland & Czech Republic certainly have that danger! Unstable times ahead.

Edited by Indy
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32 minutes ago, Indy said:

It’s a decent read and certainly shows how each area has gone about it, it should be highlighted that some EU countries are doing better than others. As I have connections back in my second home who tell me as it is, it’s not just vaccines but the set up in each country doesn’t have a set up like our NHS, they don’t have surgeries in each village and it has been a new learning on how to administer the vaccines to rural areas where 40% of the population live.

Add to this a strong mistrust of the current government set up, misinformation about the vaccines on social media, its been a combination of lots of different obstacles which has to be overcome. But as time has rolled by the learning is now being implemented and the vaccine roll out is picking up, but it’s highlighted that there will be a few countries which after the Covid virus is under control will then be in transition with potential for protests and clashes resembling the late 80’s, certainly Poland & Czech Republic certainly have that danger! Unstable times ahead.

Indeed, in my opinion by not helping the Western governments have allowed China and Russia to become ‘ friendly again ‘ with nations of their choice. America in particular have sat back and allowed that to happen.

I hope I am wrong but after we are all vaccinated, the world could become a dangerous place.

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22 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Indeed, in my opinion by not helping the Western governments have allowed China and Russia to become ‘ friendly again ‘ with nations of their choice. America in particular have sat back and allowed that to happen.

I hope I am wrong but after we are all vaccinated, the world could become a dangerous place.

Could be, yet when you look back to march last year it was the time where we all started to work together, open up to each other, share info for the good of humanity.....now the true nature of humanity is showing its ugly head again.

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47 minutes ago, Indy said:

Could be, yet when you look back to march last year it was the time where we all started to work together, open up to each other, share info for the good of humanity.....now the true nature of humanity is showing its ugly head again.

Spot on, the difference being ‘ not knowing which vaccines will be available ‘ to ‘ knowing which vaccines will be available ‘. I remember our very own PM views when in a panic that China and or America would have the only vaccines and not share them.

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3800 cases...wow..and deaths very low to. From what i can see, even it being a weekend day, that is the lowest daily new infections total since mid September. Of course big test ahead when shops etc re open but so far its very encouraging in all areas, be it  cases, testings, vaccinations, hospital admissions..even more so when looking the state of things elsewhere in Europe.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Essjayess said:

3800 cases...wow..and deaths very low to. From what i can see, even it being a weekend day, that is the lowest daily new infections total since mid September. Of course big test ahead when shops etc re open but so far its very encouraging in all areas, be it  cases, testings, vaccinations, hospital admissions..even more so when looking the state of things elsewhere in Europe.

indeed, France are recoring around 40,000 cases a day atm, we need to be closely watching not just whats happening in the UK but with our near neighbours.

Edited by Van wink

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28 minutes ago, Van wink said:

indeed, France are recoring around 40,000 cases a day atm, we need to be closely watching not just whats happeneing in the UK but with our near neighbours.

The infection figures look awful but the death rate is still relatively low.  I know Mr moy's explanation but perhaps even at the relatively low rollout there is still a vaccine effect showing? Maybe it's just a  delay to the inevitable though.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The infection figures look awful but the death rate is still relatively low.  I know Mr moy's explanation but perhaps even at the relatively low rollout there is still a vaccine effect showing? Maybe it's just a  delay to the inevitable though.

Yeh about 200 deaths yesterday and 350 the day before, when we had the sort of infection rates seen in France atm our death rates were much higher. I suspect we are not seeing the mortality figures associated with the level of infection as yet, still early days but also there may be a positive vaccination benefit which must be encouraging. It seems to me that in the UK we get higher mortality figures than on the continent when the infection rates are similar. An indication of a more healthy population? A crude comparison but maybe raises a question. Hopefully as said above, vaccination of vunerable groups is showing benefits for them.

Edited by Van wink

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7 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The infection figures look awful but the death rate is still relatively low.  I know Mr moy's explanation but perhaps even at the relatively low rollout there is still a vaccine effect showing? Maybe it's just a  delay to the inevitable though.

I'm assuming you mean the fact that France undercount due to them not using the 28 day rule.

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4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The infection figures look awful but the death rate is still relatively low.  I know Mr moy's explanation but perhaps even at the relatively low rollout there is still a vaccine effect showing? Maybe it's just a  delay to the inevitable though.

What inevitable? We’ve vaccinated 90% of the vulnerable groups, the rest are so resistant to Covid what is the inevitable? We move towards living with Covid, knowing that numbers hospitalised and death rates will be dramatically reduced even if we see a rise in infection numbers? I’m a little lost to why so many on here still appear to show concern over normality! 
The only thing we need to be concerned with any variants which are proved totally resistant to the vaccines, none are here yet! 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Indy said:

What inevitable? We’ve vaccinated 90% of the vulnerable groups, the rest are so resistant to Covid what is the inevitable? We move towards living with Covid, knowing that numbers hospitalised and death rates will be dramatically reduced even if we see a rise in infection numbers? I’m a little lost to why so many on here still appear to show concern over normality! 
The only thing we need to be concerned with any variants which are proved totally resistant to the vaccines, none are here yet! 

Not up to speed with vaccination rates in France Indy, if 90% of vunerable groups are now done thats bound to be having a significant effect and is excellent news.

Edited by Van wink

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

Not up to speed with vaccination rates in France Indy, if 90% of vunerable groups are now done thats bound to be having a significant effect and is excellent news.

No indeed not in most countries in the EU, was talking about the UK! But it’s slowly accelerating in the EU and some countries are now moving forward quicker than others, credit to Serbia who invited their neighbours to take up vaccines which were available. That’s how we all need to be working to get to a place for all our benefits.

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Not up to speed with vaccination rates in France Indy, if 90% of vunerable groups are now done thats bound to be having a significant effect and is excellent news.

Yes, to be clear I was talking about France.  Agree that our figures are unsurprising given the vaccination campaign here.    Just hoped that we were seeing some sort of effect there, even at comparatively small rollout

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1 minute ago, Indy said:

No indeed not in most countries in the EU, was talking about the UK! But it’s slowly accelerating in the EU and some countries are now moving forward quicker than others, credit to Serbia who invited their neighbours to take up vaccines which were available. That’s how we all need to be working to get to a place for all our benefits.


We were talking about the 40k cases in France Indy and the mortality data there atm

 

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1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yes, to be clear I was talking about France.  Agree that our figures are unsurprising given the vaccination campaign here.    Just hoped that we were seeing some sort of effect there, even at comparatively small rollout

Sorry BB I read that as we’re waiting for numbers to increase here as numbers go up in France! Agree though the quicker our EU friends get going full bore the better! 👍

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Just now, Van wink said:


We were talking about the 40k cases in France Indy and the mortality data there atm

 

Yes noted and apologies, as above. Having relatives in the Czech Rep I know the concerns to get the vaccines going. Unfortunately there it’s more a political & distribution  issue that a vaccine issue!

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