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Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Covid soup on March the 8th will mean that none of the subsequent steps will come to pass. I watched it rip through school communities from September, it will do exactly the same again because of this incompetent and frankly dangerous "big bang" school reopening. 

The government have had a ****ing year to make schools safe. They've failed and basically said "cross your fingers and hope". Kids with no underlying symptoms are dying. Schools are not safe in any way, shape or form.

USA has just put $250 billion into putting HEPA filters and ventilation units into schools. We have the odd squirt of sanitiser and **** all else.

I am all for opening the schools, but safely, with mitigation put in place - not like this, this is lunacy.

The government has so much blood on it's hands already.

My partner will be 33 weeks pregnant on March the 8th. She can't get vaccinated due to pregnancy, if she catches it then there are risks of significant harm to her and/or baby, and of premature birth. I won't be vaccinated until after the birth. Yet I'm expected to go to a tiny classroom, with **** all ventilation, no PPE and facing  up to 150 different households per day, and over 500 per week? WTF am I supposed to do? Risk my unborn baby being significantly harmed because Boris is an incompetent ****?

Edited by kick it off

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1 hour ago, kick it off said:

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Covid soup on March the 8th will mean that none of the subsequent steps will come to pass. I watched it rip through school communities from September, it will do exactly the same again because of this incompetent and frankly dangerous "big bang" school reopening. 

The government have had a ****ing year to make schools safe. They've failed and basically said "cross your fingers and hope". Kids with no underlying symptoms are dying. Schools are not safe in any way, shape or form.

USA has just put $250 billion into putting HEPA filters and ventilation units into schools. We have the odd squirt of sanitiser and **** all else.

I am all for opening the schools, but safely, with mitigation put in place - not like this, this is lunacy.

The government has so much blood on it's hands already.

My partner will be 33 weeks pregnant on March the 8th. She can't get vaccinated due to pregnancy, if she catches it then there are risks of significant harm to her and/or baby, and of premature birth. I won't be vaccinated until after the birth. Yet I'm expected to go to a tiny classroom, with **** all ventilation, no PPE and facing  up to 150 different households per day, and over 500 per week? WTF am I supposed to do? Risk my unborn baby being significantly harmed because Boris is an incompetent ****?

I agree pretty much with your comments - indeed it's the overriding reason I've been asking  for the younger cohorts (16+), teachers and parents to be vaccinated as a priority as these are almost certainly the main vectors for transmission. I hope I'm wrong but I do fear a significant upsurge in cases when the schools open followed by a surge in hospital admissions. I fear there may then be a rather longer delay between schools reopening and the next steps as we try to regain control. The good news is that we will all see the effect of the schools reopening on the 'R' number in isolation of other relaxations.

 

Edited by Yellow Fever
Ought to add the schools will only be back for 3 weeks or so and then Easter so if it all goes pear shaped a sharp return to full lockdown is easier.
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16 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Covid soup on March the 8th will mean that none of the subsequent steps will come to pass. I watched it rip through school communities from September, it will do exactly the same again because of this incompetent and frankly dangerous "big bang" school reopening. 

The government have had a ****ing year to make schools safe. They've failed and basically said "cross your fingers and hope". Kids with no underlying symptoms are dying. Schools are not safe in any way, shape or form.

USA has just put $250 billion into putting HEPA filters and ventilation units into schools. We have the odd squirt of sanitiser and **** all else.

I am all for opening the schools, but safely, with mitigation put in place - not like this, this is lunacy.

The government has so much blood on it's hands already.

My partner will be 33 weeks pregnant on March the 8th. She can't get vaccinated due to pregnancy, if she catches it then there are risks of significant harm to her and/or baby, and of premature birth. I won't be vaccinated until after the birth. Yet I'm expected to go to a tiny classroom, with **** all ventilation, no PPE and facing  up to 150 different households per day, and over 500 per week? WTF am I supposed to do? Risk my unborn baby being significantly harmed because Boris is an incompetent ****?

It must be frightening and I feel for you. There is no doubt in my mind that dispite recommendations from the JCVI, getting children back to school smoothly and safely is so important to the nation that all teachers should have been offered a vaccination before school returns.

Also recognise your wider point about community spread.

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17 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1364019581971558401?s=20

Fascinating 22 point post by Pagel here on the road map. I hope the link works. Point 19 is especially interesting about numbers of infections.

 

 

Fully agree with her point 19, there are those who strongly hold the view that level hospitalisations is the key,  I can understand their view but ultimately it comes down to a risk assesment.  For me the biggest risk we now face is a vaccine resistant strain, we reduce that risk by minimising infections. 

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36 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1364019581971558401?s=20

Fascinating 22 point post by Pagel here on the road map. I hope the link works. Point 19 is especially interesting about numbers of infections.

 

 

Excellent post SonyC. Makes many if not all the 'back to reality' points I've been banging on about over the last few weeks if unpopular.

I would add or emphasize as well as point 19 as per VW but also point 13 (unlucky for some).

13. A SAGE study in England of people who had been discharged after a Covid hospital stay, showed that 12% died within 5 months & 30% were readmitted to hospital. The risks were *higher* in younger people after taking into account normally better health. 

 

My guess is that those who should read this and take onboard won't however  - all with sadly inevitable consequences.

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On 22/02/2021 at 19:14, kick it off said:

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Covid soup on March the 8th will mean that none of the subsequent steps will come to pass. I watched it rip through school communities from September, it will do exactly the same again because of this incompetent and frankly dangerous "big bang" school reopening. 

The government have had a ****ing year to make schools safe. They've failed and basically said "cross your fingers and hope". Kids with no underlying symptoms are dying. Schools are not safe in any way, shape or form.

USA has just put $250 billion into putting HEPA filters and ventilation units into schools. We have the odd squirt of sanitiser and **** all else.

I am all for opening the schools, but safely, with mitigation put in place - not like this, this is lunacy.

The government has so much blood on it's hands already.

My partner will be 33 weeks pregnant on March the 8th. She can't get vaccinated due to pregnancy, if she catches it then there are risks of significant harm to her and/or baby, and of premature birth. I won't be vaccinated until after the birth. Yet I'm expected to go to a tiny classroom, with **** all ventilation, no PPE and facing  up to 150 different households per day, and over 500 per week? WTF am I supposed to do? Risk my unborn baby being significantly harmed because Boris is an incompetent ****?

I really feel for you KIO, that's a set of circumstances you should NOT have to be dealing with. Johnson and Hancock seem to be becoming increasingly arrogant as a result of the relative success of the vaccine roll-out. I'm no fan of Piers Morgan but he did a fine job roasting Hancock for the Governmnent's appalling record of 130,000 covid deaths. And wtf is supposed to be the substance of Hancock's claim that was no national shortage of PPE, just local shortages. This is pure sophistry of the most egregious kind. It was clear from "Exercise Cygnus" (2016) that there was a shortage of PPE reserves, and it was clear to all that from the very beginning of the Covid-19 crisis there was a massive shortfall of PPE supplies. My partner has been on the Covid frontline from day 1 and can attest to this, as no doubt other healthworkers would throughout the UK. The man is an utter disgrace.

Edited by horsefly
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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1364019581971558401?s=20

Fascinating 22 point post by Pagel here on the road map. I hope the link works. Point 19 is especially interesting about numbers of infections.

 

 

Doesn’t really say anything others haven’t said before. Anyone can find an expert on Twitter who says one thing or another. Whitty et al clearly already know all of this, but have produced the “roadmap” in its current form. “Follow the science” appears to be follow whichever scientists suit ones argument.

In any event, the roadmap isn’t just about hospitalisations. It quite clearly says infections are important too, but only if the rate of new infections risks overwhelming hospitals. Mutation risks, risk to the young etc - we’ve gone over it time and time again. Bird flu cases in Russia last week weren’t there? We could all hide away until we have reached this dreamworld of zero covid some aspire to and then all catch bird flu (or whatever else comes along) and die anyway. Some on here have a fascination with arbitrary numbers. Bottom line is, we went into lockdown because hospitals were apparently about to be overwhelmed, and that’s what will determine when we come out of it.

Edited by Aggy

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Rather disparaging Aggy in that I've "found" someone on Twitter as if I've been looking...she has been someone on BBC (on BBC2 just now too) I've followed her from Indy Sage for a long while. But I do agree I am an "anyone" as I am no expert.

It's just a view not a political point and I'm not trying to persuade anyone of anything in offering the link. It's a view of the roadmap and her concerns ahead. Clearly a worry about a third wave of consequence yet she agrees in her main thrust on the government approach. As I do. But, there are concerns and it felt like a good place to post those here.

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59 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Fully agree with her point 19, there are those who strongly hold the view that level hospitalisations is the key,  I can understand their view but ultimately it comes down to a risk assesment.  For me the biggest risk we now face is a vaccine resistant strain, we reduce that risk by minimising infections. 

I honestly cannot see any benefit in spending trillions of pounds and wasting so much of our precious time (time with family, time learning things, time out having life experiences, time out visiting new places, time out meeting new people) trying to suppress a mutation occurring within our borders if it is going to be imported anyway. 

Fact is we are a small country that is plugged into the world system. These mutations will arise regardless of what we do and when they arise they will come to us.   

I wouldnt suggest we try to turn back the tide, i would instead suggest we make sure that we are ready for it when it comes in.  That means getting everyone to at least a basic immunity level ASAP, allowing people some freedom from spring into summer, getting the kids back into schools and  people universities and building back our businesses.

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5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Rather disparaging Aggy in that I've "found" someone on Twitter as if I've been looking...she has been someone on BBC (on BBC2 just now too) I've followed her from Indy Sage for a long while. But I do agree I am an "anyone" as I am no expert.

It's just a view not a political point and I'm not trying to persuade anyone of anything in offering the link. It's a view of the roadmap and her concerns ahead. Clearly a worry about a third wave of consequence yet she agrees in her main thrust on the government approach. As I do. But, there are concerns and it felt like a good place to post those here.

Not specifically aimed at you, and I deleted “you” and used “one” for that reason. I don’t think you went looking for anybody - the point is that it’s extremely easy to find renowned scientists and experts who have opinions both ways. Point is though that we already know all of her concerns, as do members of SAGE and the plan has been announced anyway.  Yes there is some risk - we know about it already and it has been weighed up against other things. 

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16 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Rather disparaging Aggy in that I've "found" someone on Twitter as if I've been looking...she has been someone on BBC (on BBC2 just now too) I've followed her from Indy Sage for a long while. But I do agree I am an "anyone" as I am no expert.

It's just a view not a political point and I'm not trying to persuade anyone of anything in offering the link. It's a view of the roadmap and her concerns ahead. Clearly a worry about a third wave of consequence yet she agrees in her main thrust on the government approach. As I do. But, there are concerns and it felt like a good place to post those here.

 

I don't think anybody is arguing against the government approach at the moment. We all agree opening schools the No. 1 priority (although as per KIO I do think we should have looked to vaccinate school workers as a minimum first - just seems the decent human thing to do given the apparent exposure they will have).

The crunch will come once the schools are back if the case numbers take off again. What will the government do then? Logically it would push back further reopening until control had been regained (i.e. higher more targeted  vaccination numbers).

As per earlier comments I note that the schools will only be back for 3 weeks or so hence there will be a natural 'break' to any recurrence at Easter anyway all thing being equal which in a worst case scenario buys time.

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1 hour ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

sorry to say that I have been edited out of the non footie section of the Pink Un. Only am able to send this via an old history page. Take care.

 

Keep at it. You speak from the heart!

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Well this explains a lot for those of you who like me had been concerned about the rate of fall of data on the Zoe App!  Just had an email from Zoe below.Now revised downwards and much more in line with what I would have expected. 
image.thumb.png.01b73b9436d1b9c8de7d7f93cabee4f6.png


image.thumb.png.04f9b02fc85571b2ceb3e9da4fc685fe.pngimage.thumb.png.73eb9ec3fc7d7ac7ef3b0108eac50b2b.png

Edited by Van wink
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National

8489 - 545

continuing the sharp falls, deaths were 799 a week ago

Local still looking good

image.png.4615e3d12dd9397660df2914927e0591.png

image.thumb.png.a6bf82669f99989c06ff56039ff61482.png

Still supply issues? but 2nd dose now rising again.

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No jabs at Reydon from Sat till Thursday, they have started on over 50’s so have they had to stop and let the others catch up ?

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21 hours ago, kick it off said:

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Covid soup on March the 8th will mean that none of the subsequent steps will come to pass. I watched it rip through school communities from September, it will do exactly the same again because of this incompetent and frankly dangerous "big bang" school reopening. 

The government have had a ****ing year to make schools safe. They've failed and basically said "cross your fingers and hope". Kids with no underlying symptoms are dying. Schools are not safe in any way, shape or form.

USA has just put $250 billion into putting HEPA filters and ventilation units into schools. We have the odd squirt of sanitiser and **** all else.

I am all for opening the schools, but safely, with mitigation put in place - not like this, this is lunacy.

The government has so much blood on it's hands already.

My partner will be 33 weeks pregnant on March the 8th. She can't get vaccinated due to pregnancy, if she catches it then there are risks of significant harm to her and/or baby, and of premature birth. I won't be vaccinated until after the birth. Yet I'm expected to go to a tiny classroom, with **** all ventilation, no PPE and facing  up to 150 different households per day, and over 500 per week? WTF am I supposed to do? Risk my unborn baby being significantly harmed because Boris is an incompetent ****?

I can imagine it is a scary situation to go into, KIO. By way of comfort, I would ask you to consider the situation for groups of people uch as supermarket checkout workers. We have managed to keep essential stores open all the way through this pandemic and supermarket workers have to come into close contact with thousands of customers on a weekly basis all the time with very basic protection Most supermarkets have erected screens at checkout points and staff are usually masked up, and I imagine they are trained to wash their hands on a regular basis, and as a result we have all been able to continue shopping with little service disruption. Hopefully, everyone involved in schools can spend the time between now and March 8th working on making schools as safe as possible.

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3 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I can imagine it is a scary situation to go into, KIO. By way of comfort, I would ask you to consider the situation for groups of people uch as supermarket checkout workers. We have managed to keep essential stores open all the way through this pandemic and supermarket workers have to come into close contact with thousands of customers on a weekly basis all the time with very basic protection Most supermarkets have erected screens at checkout points and staff are usually masked up, and I imagine they are trained to wash their hands on a regular basis, and as a result we have all been able to continue shopping with little service disruption. Hopefully, everyone involved in schools can spend the time between now and March 8th working on making schools as safe as possible.

Absolutely get that re: supermarket workers, but they are allowed screens, and only engaging with people for a minute or two at a time, not for an hour (more for double lessons), and they are in much bigger spaces than tiny classrooms, people in supermarkets are largely distancing which is literally impossible in schools. I absolutely think they should be prioritised for vaccinations though. Put my classes in a space the size of supermarkets and no problem, happily teach in that. I physically cannot move the front row of desks further than 1m from me in my classroom. No screen, no ventilation, 30 kids for an hour plus, no ability for anyone to get any kind of distance.

School reopening for teachers is essentially the same as telling someone to ride a packed bus for 6 hours with zero protection. 150 passengers on/off the bus during the journey, but all of them mixing with 900 other people before getting on it, and the bus never being anything less than rammed full. Would anyone here do that at this point in time? What about do it 5 days a week? With my family situ too? I'm going to have to do some serious thinking on what exactly il do if the unions don't step up.

I'm not worried about me catching it. Im 33 and healthy. If my partner wasn't heavily pregnant, it wouldn't be much of an issue. As it stands- Put proper ventilation and hpa filters in then fine, no issue with going back. Stagger openings like Wales, Scotland and NI so we can measure impact cautiously then fine. But the big bang approach is asking me to play Russian roulette with an unborn child. There is an acceptable level of risk threshold. This exceeds it by a million miles.

I hope that the unions ballot for strike action or advise section 44 letters again. I didnt put a s44 in last time, in January but I absolutely will this time. The public will hate it, but we're already public enemy number 1 anyway and constantly getting a kicking in the press so I don't really give a toss tbh, I need to protect my family. 

Edited by kick it off

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3 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

No jabs at Reydon from Sat till Thursday, they have started on over 50’s so have they had to stop and let the others catch up ?

Nice to see some areas starting on the over 50s..at least if they have a supply of the jabs...although im in the over 65 age group and still have'nt been able to get a slot as yet for my 1st jab..a testament to different procedures and speed in  different areas i suppose.

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1 hour ago, Essjayess said:

Nice to see some areas starting on the over 50s..at least if they have a supply of the jabs...although im in the over 65 age group and still have'nt been able to get a slot as yet for my 1st jab..a testament to different procedures and speed in  different areas i suppose.

I think we were told that AZ production was a bit down as further gearing up was taking place to increase manufacturing output further down the line.May explain why supplies are reduced, maybe WBB will know.

Edited by Van wink

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16 hours ago, Van wink said:

Well this explains a lot for those of you who like me had been concerned about the rate of fall of data on the Zoe App!  Just had an email from Zoe below.Now revised downwards and much more in line with what I would have expected. 
 

 

Good to hear they think it’s now going the right way too.

Exactly why though we shouldn’t be using arbitrary figures to determine what happens next, and why number of new infections or prevalence/total number infected isn’t the right thing to be using as the “target”. 

Can you imagine if we said “we need fewer than [       ] new daily infections”, stayed in lockdown, only for methodologies to change a month later to suggest we could have been out four weeks earlier? Or, worse, if we’d come out only for methodologies to change and revise up a month too late?

Really useful for the big picture and getting an idea of trends, and more importantly really useful for helping to ensure we keep those trends going in the right direction, but unless we test everyone everyday, it’s not accurate enough to be used for specific targets (nor is any other form of modelling we see on this either).

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I understand everyone is concerned, but in reality we need to move forward as the damage being done is massive in other areas, education, other health to mention a few things.

I am really confused to why at 50 with no health issues and not overweight I’ve been asked to get my jab yet teachers who are being asked to go back haven’t been prioritised ahead of me!

The reality is it’s not a perfect way out, but at least we are heading in the right direction, the information coming back regarding the effect of the vaccine protection and effect on transmission is very good and variants will come regardless of which way we try to come out of the pandemic. We just have to accept and live with Covid and it’s future mutations which no doubt will be acted on far quicker with our knowledge learned over the past year.

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15 hours ago, kick it off said:

Absolutely get that re: supermarket workers, but they are allowed screens, and only engaging with people for a minute or two at a time, not for an hour (more for double lessons), and they are in much bigger spaces than tiny classrooms, people in supermarkets are largely distancing which is literally impossible in schools. I absolutely think they should be prioritised for vaccinations though. Put my classes in a space the size of supermarkets and no problem, happily teach in that. I physically cannot move the front row of desks further than 1m from me in my classroom. No screen, no ventilation, 30 kids for an hour plus, no ability for anyone to get any kind of distance.

School reopening for teachers is essentially the same as telling someone to ride a packed bus for 6 hours with zero protection. 150 passengers on/off the bus during the journey, but all of them mixing with 900 other people before getting on it, and the bus never being anything less than rammed full. Would anyone here do that at this point in time? What about do it 5 days a week? With my family situ too? I'm going to have to do some serious thinking on what exactly il do if the unions don't step up.

I'm not worried about me catching it. Im 33 and healthy. If my partner wasn't heavily pregnant, it wouldn't be much of an issue. As it stands- Put proper ventilation and hpa filters in then fine, no issue with going back. Stagger openings like Wales, Scotland and NI so we can measure impact cautiously then fine. But the big bang approach is asking me to play Russian roulette with an unborn child. There is an acceptable level of risk threshold. This exceeds it by a million miles.

I hope that the unions ballot for strike action or advise section 44 letters again. I didnt put a s44 in last time, in January but I absolutely will this time. The public will hate it, but we're already public enemy number 1 anyway and constantly getting a kicking in the press so I don't really give a toss tbh, I need to protect my family. 

Hope you get prioritised. It may not be of much comfort but this pandemic has shown the important role teachers play in society, which goes beyond the classroom. 

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2 hours ago, Aggy said:

Good to hear they think it’s now going the right way too.

Exactly why though we shouldn’t be using arbitrary figures to determine what happens next, and why number of new infections or prevalence/total number infected isn’t the right thing to be using as the “target”. 

Can you imagine if we said “we need fewer than [       ] new daily infections”, stayed in lockdown, only for methodologies to change a month later to suggest we could have been out four weeks earlier? Or, worse, if we’d come out only for methodologies to change and revise up a month too late?

Really useful for the big picture and getting an idea of trends, and more importantly really useful for helping to ensure we keep those trends going in the right direction, but unless we test everyone everyday, it’s not accurate enough to be used for specific targets (nor is any other form of modelling we see on this either).

Your argument is misplaced Aggy.

The government will not directly use 'Zoe' or even the media friendly/abused 'Daily Confirmed Case' data to inform its judgement - both are in many ways self selecting samples although Zoe indeed is trying to reflect the true underlying numbers with its methodologies

What they will use is the gold standard ONS random sampling data. That can tell what the true prevalence is and trends.

As an example lets see how this this works - when the schools go back there will be a lot of a new mass testing which will likely uncover many more existing but now 'confirmed'  Covid cases than has been the case. The confirmed case numbers will likely instantly rise BUT the ONS random sampling will remain the same unchanged. Of course if the virus spreads via the schools then the ONS data will also reflect this.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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18 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Your argument is misplaced Aggy.

The government will not directly use 'Zoe' or even the media friendly/abused 'Daily Confirmed Case' data to inform its judgement - both are in many ways self selecting samples although Zoe indeed is trying to reflect the true underlying numbers with its methodologies

What they will use is the gold standard ONS random sampling data. That can tell what the true prevalence is and trends.

As an example lets see how this this works - when the schools go back there will be a lot of a new mass testing which will likely uncover many more existing but now 'confirmed'  Covid cases than has been the case. The confirmed case numbers will likely instantly rise BUT the ONS random sampling will remain the same unchanged. Of course if the virus spreads via the schools then the ONS data will also reflect this.

Agree, the reason I have put a lot of faith in Zoe is of course because it has over 4 million, albeit self selected, contributors but mainly because whatever methodology they use they have nearly always been very close to ONS random data, so a good up to date barometer, hence my rather repetitive but heartfelt concerns expressed about their figures showing a recent upturn. I am pleased they have rectified the loss of accuracy which I think related to them not having sufficient  regard to to the success of the vaccine in their model.

Edited by Van wink
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18 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Agree, the reason I have put a lot of faith in Zoe is of course because it has over 4 million, albeit self selected, contributors but mainly because whatever methodology they use they have nearly always been very close to ONS random data, so a good up to date barometer, hence my rather repetitive but heartfelt concerns expressed about their figures showing a recent upturn. I am pleased they have rectified the loss of accuracy which I think related to them not having sufficient  regard to to the success of the vaccine in their model.

It's the early warning Canary in the Coalmine but obviously as they try to equate their numbers to the true (ONS) ones their models may need to change to reflect the particular Zoe reporting demographic & social mix - and what may be distorting them (i.e. the recent vaccines largely in the elderly at present).

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Your argument is misplaced Aggy.

The government will not directly use 'Zoe' or even the media friendly/abused 'Daily Confirmed Case' data to inform its judgement - both are in many ways self selecting samples although Zoe indeed is trying to reflect the true underlying numbers with its methodologies

What they will use is the gold standard ONS random sampling data. That can tell what the true prevalence is and trends.

As an example lets see how this this works - when the schools go back there will be a lot of a new mass testing which will likely uncover many more existing but now 'confirmed'  Covid cases than has been the case. The confirmed case numbers will likely instantly rise BUT the ONS random sampling will remain the same unchanged. Of course if the virus spreads via the schools then the ONS data will also reflect this.

Even the random sampling doesn’t tell you the exact number. If you widen the pool of random samples, the outcome might be different. Good for showing rough numbers and trends, but not for saying “we definitely have 999 cases today whereas we had 1,001 yesterday, let’s open up”.

Comes down yet again to the point that unless you test everyone everyday, we don’t know exactly how many positive tests there are. Which is why the government, presumably advised by SAGE, have stuck to concrete targets (deaths and hospitalisations) and not arbitrary figures based on numbers we are guessing.

 

Edit: PS, does the ONS random sampling take into account care homes, hospitals, other public accommodation?

Edited by Aggy

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