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16 minutes ago, Van wink said:

10 players from the French rugby squad have now tested positive

Les chasseur d'oeufs stupide. 

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The four main hubs in Norfolk are only operating every other day for the next two weeks due to an issue with the supply of vaccines. Presumably that will have an effect on the numbers in these parts.

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37 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

well Indy, the more destructive we get, d3molishing the habitats of animals and or making them live in unormal coditions, the more we will come in contact with viruses, Time to change tack drastically.

This virus is not defeated by a long shot, as much as people hope for it, and there are new and equally dangerous viruses jumping species barriers.

https://www.fwi.co.uk/livestock/poultry/russia-confirms-first-case-of-h5n8-avian-flu-in-humans

 

But are we really living closer to virus carrying animals?  I'm not sure what period you want compare with but I reckon we have less rather than more contact than at any time in our history. I personally can't remember the last time I saw a chicken that wasn't wrapped in sellophane, and the same for most other things that traditionally we would have shared a habitat with. The Corona virus is suspected to have arisen in a Chinese wet market which is the type of retail experience we might have known in the past but is now disappearing to a great degree. By that evidence the traditional way of life, where we kept animals and shopped for fresh food would have led to more contact with viruses than today. Just that in the past no one was counting. 

The virus is dangerous today because we live in a global, interconnected world where someone could be in Wuhan yesterday, Milan today and Birmingham tomorrow while travelling on mass transport systems. 

The key to solving this and future virus outbreaks is how do you solve the problem of free and rapid movement within a global society. Perhaps we need to control national borders better than we do now. 

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Some decent balanced scientific opinion on the measures announced, covering the rate of infection (interesting that R couldn't go above 2 now that allegedly 30% of the population have some 'immune' protection). Still, there are worries and these are nearly explained by the last advisor. 

At least data seems to be the determining factor. For now.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/22/england-covid-roadmap-lockdown-experts-view?

 

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31 minutes ago, Indy said:

Well to be lectured about the inevitable is daft! The reality is that lithium mining is causing more massive issues to the carbon footprint and directly to the environment than the good of using electric cars, then to power the cars we need to up our power output by four times to meet demand which means nuclear power with will require massive building programs which will in turn require massive carbon emissions!

To meet the requirements and reverse the effects we need to act so drastically that we would all need to be like the Good Life!

I'd rather give up driving then to get an electric vehicle.

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119 days until freedom!

I'm confident but this seems very optimistic... Doesn't look like we're gonna wait around for antivaxxers etc.

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Just now, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

I'd rather give up driving then to get an electric vehicle.

Indeed, I’ve gone from a diesel to a small engined petrol, I’ve worked at Sizewell A for a time, worked in oil & gas for 20 odd years, but all I can do is be energy efficient at home, which I am, careful in my use of utilities which I am, if we all do our small bits globally we could have a massive impact on climate change, the trouble is we’re humans and we are naturally a destructive species!

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36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Don't worry, it probably won't happen before we are promoted so at least one more open top bus ride.😉

Not until June

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2 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

119 days until freedom!

I'm confident but this seems very optimistic... Doesn't look like we're gonna wait around for antivaxxers etc.

I’m hopeful too TJ, but until the rest of the world catch up it’s going to be a very dodgy time! But hopefully we will see more vaccines and treatments to reduce the severity!

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1 minute ago, Indy said:

I’m hopeful too TJ, but until the rest of the world catch up it’s going to be a very dodgy time! But hopefully we will see more vaccines and treatments to reduce the severity!

A lot of scientists saying Covid is endemic so even after the first vaccination program, there is a chance of mutations and a recurrence if not on the same scale.

We need a vaccine that kills it.

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13 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

A lot of scientists saying Covid is endemic so even after the first vaccination program, there is a chance of mutations and a recurrence if not on the same scale.

We need a vaccine that kills it.

the problem we have with focusing on mutations is that we are only around 1% of the world's population so our efforts are near enough futile. As you say, we need a vaccination that will jump ahead of the virus and give it nowhere to go.

The long term T Cell response seen from these vaccines gives me hope that even with the current mutations, we're basically good to go though. Hopefully turns Covid into a tickly cough for the vast, vast majority!

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17 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

the problem we have with focusing on mutations is that we are only around 1% of the world's population so our efforts are near enough futile. As you say, we need a vaccination that will jump ahead of the virus and give it nowhere to go.

The long term T Cell response seen from these vaccines gives me hope that even with the current mutations, we're basically good to go though. Hopefully turns Covid into a tickly cough for the vast, vast majority!

Yes  - the idea is surely to get it down to a level were it is either no worse (and fully treatable) and than a bad cold or is as rare as measles should be (take note anti-vaxers). We can't have it 'as is ' infecting 10,000 or even 1000 or 100 day as 'normal'. It remains a notifiable disease.

 

What worries me now is the media circus that's partying already on the 'opening up' yet forgets to tell everybody to still act sensibly in the interim and remain in lockdown following the rules. I have little hope it will be observed so disaster is still a distinct possibility.

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12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

What worries me now is the media circus that's partying already on the 'opening up' yet forgets to tell everybody to still act sensibly in the interim and remain in lockdown following the rules. 

This is the main worry YF. I intimated at it in an earlier post. If only now we could get some concerted media messaging....it isn't going to happen. The other worry for me is still those small band of Tory 'live and let rippers' who will press again and again. Maybe they've been headed off at the pass?

Alternatively, government ought to do some of those public information films / advertorials.

Finally, Sunak now needs to give the country  a final decent package in the budget coming up.

Overall though perhaps we do get a chance to be out and celebrate our famous team in some capacity. Fingers crossed that this c19 plan works and simultaneously, we (NCFC) finish the job. It will make for a very happy and hopeful 2021.

Edited by sonyc
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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

10641 - 178

Local

image.png.aaed7bda9d948767bf1cf64b754a955b.png

image.thumb.png.54be9e6d98291b19a1b6acee08854b48.png

Vaccine supply problems perhaps?

Otherwise all news is good.

Thanks Ricardo.  The Scottish leak of vaccine numbers (@sonyc posted it not that long ago) showed a drop off last week and a bigger reduction this week before going back up - I think this week they showed no Oxford vaccine doses at all.  The explanation has been that they're ramping up production so need a pause.  If the Scots numbers are the same pro-rata across the UK then this is exactly what you'd expect so not a reason to worry.

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6 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks Ricardo.  The Scottish leak of vaccine numbers (@sonyc posted it not that long ago) showed a drop off last week and a bigger reduction this week before going back up - I think this week they showed no Oxford vaccine doses at all.  The explanation has been that they're ramping up production so need a pause.  If the Scots numbers are the same pro-rata across the UK then this is exactly what you'd expect so not a reason to worry.

Cheers ICF. 

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Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Covid soup on March the 8th will mean that none of the subsequent steps will come to pass. I watched it rip through school communities from September, it will do exactly the same again because of this incompetent and frankly dangerous "big bang" school reopening. 

The government have had a ****ing year to make schools safe. They've failed and basically said "cross your fingers and hope". Kids with no underlying symptoms are dying. Schools are not safe in any way, shape or form.

USA has just put $250 billion into putting HEPA filters and ventilation units into schools. We have the odd squirt of sanitiser and **** all else.

I am all for opening the schools, but safely, with mitigation put in place - not like this, this is lunacy.

The government has so much blood on it's hands already.

My partner will be 33 weeks pregnant on March the 8th. She can't get vaccinated due to pregnancy, if she catches it then there are risks of significant harm to her and/or baby, and of premature birth. I won't be vaccinated until after the birth. Yet I'm expected to go to a tiny classroom, with **** all ventilation, no PPE and facing  up to 150 different households per day, and over 500 per week? WTF am I supposed to do? Risk my unborn baby being significantly harmed because Boris is an incompetent ****?

Edited by kick it off

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1 hour ago, kick it off said:

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Covid soup on March the 8th will mean that none of the subsequent steps will come to pass. I watched it rip through school communities from September, it will do exactly the same again because of this incompetent and frankly dangerous "big bang" school reopening. 

The government have had a ****ing year to make schools safe. They've failed and basically said "cross your fingers and hope". Kids with no underlying symptoms are dying. Schools are not safe in any way, shape or form.

USA has just put $250 billion into putting HEPA filters and ventilation units into schools. We have the odd squirt of sanitiser and **** all else.

I am all for opening the schools, but safely, with mitigation put in place - not like this, this is lunacy.

The government has so much blood on it's hands already.

My partner will be 33 weeks pregnant on March the 8th. She can't get vaccinated due to pregnancy, if she catches it then there are risks of significant harm to her and/or baby, and of premature birth. I won't be vaccinated until after the birth. Yet I'm expected to go to a tiny classroom, with **** all ventilation, no PPE and facing  up to 150 different households per day, and over 500 per week? WTF am I supposed to do? Risk my unborn baby being significantly harmed because Boris is an incompetent ****?

I agree pretty much with your comments - indeed it's the overriding reason I've been asking  for the younger cohorts (16+), teachers and parents to be vaccinated as a priority as these are almost certainly the main vectors for transmission. I hope I'm wrong but I do fear a significant upsurge in cases when the schools open followed by a surge in hospital admissions. I fear there may then be a rather longer delay between schools reopening and the next steps as we try to regain control. The good news is that we will all see the effect of the schools reopening on the 'R' number in isolation of other relaxations.

 

Edited by Yellow Fever
Ought to add the schools will only be back for 3 weeks or so and then Easter so if it all goes pear shaped a sharp return to full lockdown is easier.
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16 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Covid soup on March the 8th will mean that none of the subsequent steps will come to pass. I watched it rip through school communities from September, it will do exactly the same again because of this incompetent and frankly dangerous "big bang" school reopening. 

The government have had a ****ing year to make schools safe. They've failed and basically said "cross your fingers and hope". Kids with no underlying symptoms are dying. Schools are not safe in any way, shape or form.

USA has just put $250 billion into putting HEPA filters and ventilation units into schools. We have the odd squirt of sanitiser and **** all else.

I am all for opening the schools, but safely, with mitigation put in place - not like this, this is lunacy.

The government has so much blood on it's hands already.

My partner will be 33 weeks pregnant on March the 8th. She can't get vaccinated due to pregnancy, if she catches it then there are risks of significant harm to her and/or baby, and of premature birth. I won't be vaccinated until after the birth. Yet I'm expected to go to a tiny classroom, with **** all ventilation, no PPE and facing  up to 150 different households per day, and over 500 per week? WTF am I supposed to do? Risk my unborn baby being significantly harmed because Boris is an incompetent ****?

It must be frightening and I feel for you. There is no doubt in my mind that dispite recommendations from the JCVI, getting children back to school smoothly and safely is so important to the nation that all teachers should have been offered a vaccination before school returns.

Also recognise your wider point about community spread.

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17 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1364019581971558401?s=20

Fascinating 22 point post by Pagel here on the road map. I hope the link works. Point 19 is especially interesting about numbers of infections.

 

 

Fully agree with her point 19, there are those who strongly hold the view that level hospitalisations is the key,  I can understand their view but ultimately it comes down to a risk assesment.  For me the biggest risk we now face is a vaccine resistant strain, we reduce that risk by minimising infections. 

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36 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1364019581971558401?s=20

Fascinating 22 point post by Pagel here on the road map. I hope the link works. Point 19 is especially interesting about numbers of infections.

 

 

Excellent post SonyC. Makes many if not all the 'back to reality' points I've been banging on about over the last few weeks if unpopular.

I would add or emphasize as well as point 19 as per VW but also point 13 (unlucky for some).

13. A SAGE study in England of people who had been discharged after a Covid hospital stay, showed that 12% died within 5 months & 30% were readmitted to hospital. The risks were *higher* in younger people after taking into account normally better health. 

 

My guess is that those who should read this and take onboard won't however  - all with sadly inevitable consequences.

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On 22/02/2021 at 19:14, kick it off said:

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but Covid soup on March the 8th will mean that none of the subsequent steps will come to pass. I watched it rip through school communities from September, it will do exactly the same again because of this incompetent and frankly dangerous "big bang" school reopening. 

The government have had a ****ing year to make schools safe. They've failed and basically said "cross your fingers and hope". Kids with no underlying symptoms are dying. Schools are not safe in any way, shape or form.

USA has just put $250 billion into putting HEPA filters and ventilation units into schools. We have the odd squirt of sanitiser and **** all else.

I am all for opening the schools, but safely, with mitigation put in place - not like this, this is lunacy.

The government has so much blood on it's hands already.

My partner will be 33 weeks pregnant on March the 8th. She can't get vaccinated due to pregnancy, if she catches it then there are risks of significant harm to her and/or baby, and of premature birth. I won't be vaccinated until after the birth. Yet I'm expected to go to a tiny classroom, with **** all ventilation, no PPE and facing  up to 150 different households per day, and over 500 per week? WTF am I supposed to do? Risk my unborn baby being significantly harmed because Boris is an incompetent ****?

I really feel for you KIO, that's a set of circumstances you should NOT have to be dealing with. Johnson and Hancock seem to be becoming increasingly arrogant as a result of the relative success of the vaccine roll-out. I'm no fan of Piers Morgan but he did a fine job roasting Hancock for the Governmnent's appalling record of 130,000 covid deaths. And wtf is supposed to be the substance of Hancock's claim that was no national shortage of PPE, just local shortages. This is pure sophistry of the most egregious kind. It was clear from "Exercise Cygnus" (2016) that there was a shortage of PPE reserves, and it was clear to all that from the very beginning of the Covid-19 crisis there was a massive shortfall of PPE supplies. My partner has been on the Covid frontline from day 1 and can attest to this, as no doubt other healthworkers would throughout the UK. The man is an utter disgrace.

Edited by horsefly
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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1364019581971558401?s=20

Fascinating 22 point post by Pagel here on the road map. I hope the link works. Point 19 is especially interesting about numbers of infections.

 

 

Doesn’t really say anything others haven’t said before. Anyone can find an expert on Twitter who says one thing or another. Whitty et al clearly already know all of this, but have produced the “roadmap” in its current form. “Follow the science” appears to be follow whichever scientists suit ones argument.

In any event, the roadmap isn’t just about hospitalisations. It quite clearly says infections are important too, but only if the rate of new infections risks overwhelming hospitals. Mutation risks, risk to the young etc - we’ve gone over it time and time again. Bird flu cases in Russia last week weren’t there? We could all hide away until we have reached this dreamworld of zero covid some aspire to and then all catch bird flu (or whatever else comes along) and die anyway. Some on here have a fascination with arbitrary numbers. Bottom line is, we went into lockdown because hospitals were apparently about to be overwhelmed, and that’s what will determine when we come out of it.

Edited by Aggy

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Rather disparaging Aggy in that I've "found" someone on Twitter as if I've been looking...she has been someone on BBC (on BBC2 just now too) I've followed her from Indy Sage for a long while. But I do agree I am an "anyone" as I am no expert.

It's just a view not a political point and I'm not trying to persuade anyone of anything in offering the link. It's a view of the roadmap and her concerns ahead. Clearly a worry about a third wave of consequence yet she agrees in her main thrust on the government approach. As I do. But, there are concerns and it felt like a good place to post those here.

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59 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Fully agree with her point 19, there are those who strongly hold the view that level hospitalisations is the key,  I can understand their view but ultimately it comes down to a risk assesment.  For me the biggest risk we now face is a vaccine resistant strain, we reduce that risk by minimising infections. 

I honestly cannot see any benefit in spending trillions of pounds and wasting so much of our precious time (time with family, time learning things, time out having life experiences, time out visiting new places, time out meeting new people) trying to suppress a mutation occurring within our borders if it is going to be imported anyway. 

Fact is we are a small country that is plugged into the world system. These mutations will arise regardless of what we do and when they arise they will come to us.   

I wouldnt suggest we try to turn back the tide, i would instead suggest we make sure that we are ready for it when it comes in.  That means getting everyone to at least a basic immunity level ASAP, allowing people some freedom from spring into summer, getting the kids back into schools and  people universities and building back our businesses.

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5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Rather disparaging Aggy in that I've "found" someone on Twitter as if I've been looking...she has been someone on BBC (on BBC2 just now too) I've followed her from Indy Sage for a long while. But I do agree I am an "anyone" as I am no expert.

It's just a view not a political point and I'm not trying to persuade anyone of anything in offering the link. It's a view of the roadmap and her concerns ahead. Clearly a worry about a third wave of consequence yet she agrees in her main thrust on the government approach. As I do. But, there are concerns and it felt like a good place to post those here.

Not specifically aimed at you, and I deleted “you” and used “one” for that reason. I don’t think you went looking for anybody - the point is that it’s extremely easy to find renowned scientists and experts who have opinions both ways. Point is though that we already know all of her concerns, as do members of SAGE and the plan has been announced anyway.  Yes there is some risk - we know about it already and it has been weighed up against other things. 

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16 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Rather disparaging Aggy in that I've "found" someone on Twitter as if I've been looking...she has been someone on BBC (on BBC2 just now too) I've followed her from Indy Sage for a long while. But I do agree I am an "anyone" as I am no expert.

It's just a view not a political point and I'm not trying to persuade anyone of anything in offering the link. It's a view of the roadmap and her concerns ahead. Clearly a worry about a third wave of consequence yet she agrees in her main thrust on the government approach. As I do. But, there are concerns and it felt like a good place to post those here.

 

I don't think anybody is arguing against the government approach at the moment. We all agree opening schools the No. 1 priority (although as per KIO I do think we should have looked to vaccinate school workers as a minimum first - just seems the decent human thing to do given the apparent exposure they will have).

The crunch will come once the schools are back if the case numbers take off again. What will the government do then? Logically it would push back further reopening until control had been regained (i.e. higher more targeted  vaccination numbers).

As per earlier comments I note that the schools will only be back for 3 weeks or so hence there will be a natural 'break' to any recurrence at Easter anyway all thing being equal which in a worst case scenario buys time.

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