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4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Work as well in what way might be the question that needs to be answered.

Lets say vaccines and existing immunity protect from serious disease and death but not spread.   There is a real argument to say that we open up fully  and completely as soon as groups 1-9 are sorted.  In fact we actively encourage spread of the disease amongst the young and healthy while it is one step ahead

Worst thing we could do is hide away until the virus is two steps ahead of the herd and we eventually open up to a disease that has mutated to completely evade the vaccine or natural immunity.

Agreed - in fact this is exactly what Steve Baker and that group of Tory MP's said earlier in the week. For balance, it's good to see at least one poster endorsing that policy instead of the usual 'anti Tory / Johnson/ Government' tirade of abuse from many on here that followed Bakers announcement on Monday. 

We cannot keep the country in perpetual lockdown (and hope that 'someone else' foots the bill) after vaccination of the main vulnerable groups 'just in case something terrifying develops'. Of course the virus has caused many deaths and severe illness of thousands but the unrelenting media hype for a year now is a disgrace as the hundreds who die of all other conditions are totally ignored.   

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Hi Never

This maybe explains your area and looks like you should try on a regular basis.

Hope that helps.

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/norfolk-patients-offered-covid-jabs-in-brighton-7563090

thanks for that well be back, I have not read the Eastern Daily Prattle for years, but this explains that the Tories can't serve the needs in their own county. I will just have to wait, or decline altogether.

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1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

I think we are all maybe jumping the gun at the moment. Lockdown ending, vaccination eternal success and prevention of death are really beyond the knowledge of even the top experts.

I know its easy as a pensioner but we really do have to wait and wait until there is irrefutable evidence.

We surely do not want to waste the future by being too eager about the present.

Yes I fully agree, I hope the government is able to resist the clamour to open up coming from within its own ranks and the media.

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25 minutes ago, Well b back said:

BREAKINGNI lockdown extended until 1 April

The Stormont executive has agreed lockdown restrictions in Northern Ireland will be extended until 1 April, BBC News NI understands.

Another review of the measures will take place on 18 March.

The data may be suggesting that England does the same thing.

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30 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Same again today ,unless my memory is deceiving me, which is quite within the realms of the possible, just over 14000 today based on data from 31 Jan to 14 Feb.

I fear that infection rates may not quite be on the rapid downward trajectory we are hoping for, need to watch the rolling averages of course but a little cause for concern which may influence political decisions.

Have to say, Zoe figures for the whole of the Bradford district remain high (around 3000 daily). One week there is a drop of 800, the next up by 1000. In the last 7 days there has been an increase of c.700. At virtually no stage have I been sure of a real sustained lowering. Though rates were double at their peak in recent months.

I drove into the city yesterday (first time in months) and the roads were very busy indeed. That Guardian report (yesterday) stating Blackburn, Leicester and Bradford had suffered the worst rates in the pandemic (for sustained and consistent high levels of infection) is significant. Bradford, like many other northern towns/cities is a low waged economy. More people are key workers in lower paid jobs. Skills levels are lower than most places (level 2 to 4 for example...directly linked to calibre of job and salary). This is why Covid has been so prevalent.

Other factors include housing density and multiple household occupancy. Yet, it's the economy and type of economy more specifically, that is the most salient factor. 'Levelling up' or any other so-called policy objective won't have any effect unless sustained for decades. It needs structural change. Unfortunately, that won't happen.

Interesting to see indeed if there is a nationwide opening up or regional.

 

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15 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

Agreed - in fact this is exactly what Steve Baker and that group of Tory MP's said earlier in the week. For balance, it's good to see at least one poster endorsing that policy instead of the usual 'anti Tory / Johnson/ Government' tirade of abuse from many on here that followed Bakers announcement on Monday. 

We cannot keep the country in perpetual lockdown (and hope that 'someone else' foots the bill) after vaccination of the main vulnerable groups 'just in case something terrifying develops'. Of course the virus has caused many deaths and severe illness of thousands but the unrelenting media hype for a year now is a disgrace as the hundreds who die of all other conditions are totally ignored.   

given the poster is also you, your endorsement is a bit silly, even for you

 

ps you mixed up your replying a while back so it was easy to spot that you are both the same 😆

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes we're not far apart. I think the confusion on here is between what we do in the next 6 months and the next few years. I note even VW has had to state he's not arguing for zero Covid but just keeping it manageable!

In the next few months the lockdown in conjunction with the vaccine and even better weather (outside) should enable us to get the daily confirmed cases of all varieties down to the order of say 1000/day (we're at 10,000 day at present). Then with approaching 100% effective immunization and TT & I we should be able to hold it there or even reduce it further over the summer whilst we update our vaccines foe the autumn.

What I'm desperate to avoid is opening up too soon and simply defeating or undoing all the hard work done so far - sadly exactly what we did last summer and autumn. The current vaccines are far from perfect but the root of all evil is transmission - stop that (and the vaccines indeed do that) and the pandemic ceases.  Of course we can all be caught out by a new variant but that is much easier to spot once we have only a few hundred cases/day rather than tens of thousands. 

What we mustn't do is set up a perfect experiment to see how fast we can breed vaccine busting mutants by accepting a high prevalence in the unvaccinated and yet a lot of vaccinated/unvaccinated mixing.

I'm 100% with you here @YF. I'd just add we need to get proper control over people coming in - testing for lorry drivers, quarantine hotels with testing for all travellers not just red zone countries.  It's a year into the pandemic and people really shouldn't be travelling now unless they're willing to quarantine properly.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

BREAKINGNI lockdown extended until 1 April

The Stormont executive has agreed lockdown restrictions in Northern Ireland will be extended until 1 April, BBC News NI understands.

Another review of the measures will take place on 18 March.

I think the only surprise is that they’ll review again on 18 March rather than early April.
 

Ties in with kids back in March, probably move back to something like a nationwide tier system early April, and move down the tiers roughly one a month or so unless there’s a reason not to.

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32 minutes ago, sonyc said:

 

More people are key workers in lower paid jobs. Skills levels are lower than most places (level 2 to 4 for example...directly linked to calibre of job and salary). This is why Covid has been so prevalent.

 

An interesting point - and one which lockdowns won’t help unless you ban all key workers from working. 
 

Another reason I doubt we will have regional measures (as opposed to national) is it then opens up a debate about vaccine distribution. If it’s evident certain areas are more at risk than others, why aren’t proportionately more vaccines being sent there? But equally why would an unvaccinated person in Cornwall be happy that people in Bradford or Leeds have been vaccinated because they get more supply just because those areas are more densely populated/worse rates etc.?

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Same again today, unless my memory is deceiving me, which is quite within the realms of the possible, just over 14000 today based on data from 31 Jan to 14 Feb.

I fear that infection rates may not quite be on the rapid downward trajectory we are hoping for, need to watch the rolling averages of course but a little cause for concern which may influence political decisions.

New daily positives today down about 1300 compared to last Thursday, every single day this week has seen lower new infections than same days last week, so Zoe app have their stats but facts show that new infections are still on the decrease in the UK.

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30 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

I'm 100% with you here @YF. I'd just add we need to get proper control over people coming in - testing for lorry drivers, quarantine hotels with testing for all travellers not just red zone countries.  It's a year into the pandemic and people really shouldn't be travelling now unless they're willing to quarantine properly.

I agree - If it's worth doing do it properly - mandating quarantine for all incoming normal travelers with heavily tested exceptions for such as lorry drivers, crew etc. 

I think the 'red' list is very deceiving and easily circumnavigated literally by anybody intent on getting in from such areas. A few stop overs and unless MI5/6 haven't got better things to do who'd know ? 

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5 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

New daily positives today down about 1300 compared to last Thursday, every single day this week has seen lower new infections than same days last week, so Zoe app have their stats but facts show that new infections are still on the decrease in the UK.

Not doubting that Essjayess, just raising the point that the rate at which things are improving may not be as fast as some seem to think. 

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4 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

New daily positives today down about 1300 compared to last Thursday, every single day this week has seen lower new infections than same days last week, so Zoe app have their stats but facts show that new infections are still on the decrease in the UK.

Ess - be wary of misreading confirmed cases as opposed to random sampling (i.e. ONS). Neither Zoe or the confirmed daily cases actually are correct as to the true position. I always used to see the ONS random sampling indicate about 2 to 3 times the number of actual cases than confirmed - many of course asymptomatic. Zoe however has always indicated early trends so cause for concern at the very least.

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

An interesting point - and one which lockdowns won’t help unless you ban all key workers from working. 
 

Another reason I doubt we will have regional measures (as opposed to national) is it then opens up a debate about vaccine distribution. If it’s evident certain areas are more at risk than others, why aren’t proportionately more vaccines being sent there? But equally why would an unvaccinated person in Cornwall be happy that people in Bradford or Leeds have been vaccinated because they get more supply just because those areas are more densely populated/worse rates etc.?

I agree Aggy about it needing to be a national decision. 

Yet,  on your other point, the cynic in me would ask a question about differentiated government policy.....e.g. why has funding, investment, capital, infrastructure been so London-centric for decades and decades, regardless of colour of government. It's simply the politics of Westminster. Would imagine you might agree being Manchester-based? A universal policy is always fairer one could argue and yet if support (be it vaccine, investment or whatever) was selective and targeted carefully, it would make sense to target the worst affected areas. As stated before, it would never happen. Ask any northern politician too (or business) they know how the north has been treated. I don't mean this to be a purely political point because actually no government has ever got to grip with regional inequality. Indeed many policies have aggravated inequality. The point of my initial post was that it has really taken a pandemic to expose it. 

An amazing thing (though not unsurprising) is that if you take a bus ride out from the city centre here after 2 miles you live 3 years longer on average. You go 10 miles and you live 10 years longer on average. And for a life with good health the difference say between Bradford and Ilkley is over 20 years! It is so different in Norfolk / Suffolk. Health inequality is a major health issue in the UK.

Edited by sonyc
initial

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19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I agree Aggy about it needing to be a national decision. 

Yet,  on your other point, the cynic in me would ask a question about differentiated government policy.....e.g. why has funding, investment, capital, infrastructure been so London-centric for decades and decades, regardless of colour of government. It's simply the politics of Westminster. Would imagine you might agree being Manchester-based? A universal policy is always fairer one could argue and yet if support (be it vaccine, investment or whatever) was selective and targeted carefully, it would make sense to target the worst affected areas. As stated before, it would never happen. Ask any northern politician too (or business) they know how the north has been treated. I don't mean this to be a purely political point because actually no government has ever got to grip with regional inequality. Indeed many policies have aggravated inequality. The point of my initial post was that it has really taken a pandemic to expose it. 

An amazing thing (though not unsurprising) is that if you take a bus ride out from the city centre here after 2 miles you live 3 years longer on average. You go 10 miles and you live 10 years longer on average. And for a life with good health the difference say between Bradford and Ilkley is over 20 years! It is so different in Norfolk / Suffolk. Health inequality is a major health issue in the UK.

Not looked a this sort of stuff for quite a few years but certainly when I was working full time we used to look at deprivation indices across Norfolk as part of the DPH annual report, rural deprivation is a big issue in Norfolk as is the level of deprivation in Yarmouth. Norfolk has a population at both ends of the spectrum of health inequalities.

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20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Not looked a this sort of stuff for quite a few years but certainly when I was working full time we used to look at deprivation indices across Norfolk as part of the DPH annual report, rural deprivation is a big issue in Norfolk as is the level of deprivation in Yarmouth. Norfolk has a population at both ends of the spectrum of health inequalities.

Indeed, Yarmouth (especially the centre) and rural areas are comparatively deprived.

I think its the sheer scale though VW. I doubt many areas in Norfolk will appear in the top 20 areas / neighbourhoods in the Index of Multiple Deprivation (and I haven't looked them up recently).  There is a world of difference. Yet, in the final analysis, its not a question of pure comparison  is it (Shakespeare..."comparisons are odious"). It is simply that Covid has had a disproportionate effect in some parts of the UK I was alluding to. And in posting a view, I did wonder whether people of sensitivity might be annoyed at a northern perspective on it (along the lines of "why the hell should we be interested!").  As stated, I was referencing that report (see attached if you're interested).

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/17/why-leicester-blackburn-and-bradford-have-been-hit-hard-by-covid

Edited by sonyc

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2 hours ago, yellowrider120 said:

Agreed - in fact this is exactly what Steve Baker and that group of Tory MP's said earlier in the week. For balance, it's good to see at least one poster endorsing that policy instead of the usual 'anti Tory / Johnson/ Government' tirade of abuse from many on here that followed Bakers announcement on Monday. 

We cannot keep the country in perpetual lockdown (and hope that 'someone else' foots the bill) after vaccination of the main vulnerable groups 'just in case something terrifying develops'. Of course the virus has caused many deaths and severe illness of thousands but the unrelenting media hype for a year now is a disgrace as the hundreds who die of all other conditions are totally ignored.   

I didn't quite say that this is the route I would take.   Too many unknowns and too many vulnerable without even a first jab. That said I think we might be approaching a point where we should begin to question whether or not it is still harmful to have some spread.

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29 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Indeed, Yarmouth (especially the centre) and rural areas are comparatively deprived.

I think its the sheer scale though VW. I doubt many areas in Norfolk will appear in the top 20 areas / neighbourhoods in the Index of Multiple Deprivation (and I haven't looked them up recently).  There is a world of difference. Yet, in the final analysis, its not a question of pure comparison  is it (Shakespeare..."comparisons are odious"). It is simply that Covid has had a disproportionate effect in some parts of the UK I was alluding to. And in posting a view, I did wonder whether people of sensitivity might be annoyed at a northern perspective on it (along the lines of "why the hell should we be interested!").  As stated, I was referencing that report (see attached if you're interested).

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/17/why-leicester-blackburn-and-bradford-have-been-hit-hard-by-covid

Totally agree, I do think though that many of the uninitiated think of Norfolk as  a rural idyll, often deprivation is hidden as I know you are aware. Yarmouth used to be ranked around 10th worst in the UK from memory. Of course the deprivation associated with multiple occupancy, low  paid work, poor health and education are far more significant in terms of control over spread of infection than what we think of as rural deprivation, (but some of the factors are common). Has always been the way, even in the days of the plague.

Edited by Van wink

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4 hours ago, Van wink said:

.

 

5 hours ago, sonyc said:

.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/835115/IoD2019_Statistical_Release.pdf

 

Read if you wish but if like me you prefer pictures, map 1 shows the “small local areas” - deprivation dotted everywhere (although more up north and on the east coast), map two shows the most deprived local authorities by percentage of their boroughs in the most deprived decile - a large swathe of very dark blue across everywhere in the north west and east Yorks in particular.

Edited by Aggy
Tried to post pics from the link and failed
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Yet again the daily vaccinations for the world move on and the total now stands at 193, 291, 612. 87 Countries have now commenced. As you can see the daily number increases by the day and supplies are beginning to show rapid growth. 

The biggest vaccination campaign in history is underway. More than 193 million doses have been administered across 87 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 6.47 milliondoses a day.

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“Boris Johnson will pledge to donate a majority of the UK's surplus vaccine supply to poorer countries in a speech to a virtual G7 meeting on Friday.

He will urge rich countries to back a new 100-day target for the development of new vaccines for future emerging diseases.

The UK has ordered over 400m doses of various vaccines, so many will be left over once all adults are vaccinated.

But anti-poverty campaigners say the UK is not doing enough.

Decisions on when and how much of the surplus will be distributed will be made later in the year.

They will depend on the vaccine supply chain and whether booster shots are needed in the autumn.”

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Well, I think I may have Covid. Have been very careful so don't know how but bad sore throat and strange stomach ache at the moment plus a slight general body ache. Vaccine not in time for me ☹️. Test to be booked. No sleep whatsoever last night.

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6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well, I think I may have Covid. Have been very careful so don't know how but bad sore throat and strange stomach ache at the moment plus a slight general body ache. Vaccine not in time for me ☹️. Test to be booked. No sleep whatsoever last night.

Really bad news buddy but remember, for most people it isn't a major disease.  Let us know how you get on.

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11 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well, I think I may have Covid. Have been very careful so don't know how but bad sore throat and strange stomach ache at the moment plus a slight general body ache. Vaccine not in time for me ☹️. Test to be booked. No sleep whatsoever last night.

Hope all goes well Sonyc.

Get that test booked.

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Yes, when a family member tested positive over the Christmas break, we all had tests which I was able to book on line for the following day, the results came back 24-48 hours after we'd had our tests and that way, at least you'll know.  My test result was later that the rest of the family so I was convinced it was a positive test but thankfully it wasn't.

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Indeed @Van wink This follows Macron yesterday stating that there is now so much vaccine that the rich countries should be giving 5% of their current supplies to poorer nations, on a monthly basis which is of course ( US aside who refused ) what was promised in June. I maybe wrong but I think this is because China and Russia are giving away such huge quantities to countries like Turkey that they want to work with, rather than The W.H.O. View that no country should be vaccinated under 50’s ( underlying conditions and health workers aside ) before every under 50 is vaccinated.

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3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Indeed @Van wink This follows Macron yesterday stating that there is now so much vaccine that the rich countries should be giving 5% of their current supplies to poorer nations, on a monthly basis which is of course ( US aside who refused ) what was promised in June. I maybe wrong but I think this is because China and Russia are giving away such huge quantities to countries like Turkey that they want to work with, rather than The W.H.O. View that no country should be vaccinated under 50’s ( underlying conditions and health workers aside ) before every under 50 is vaccinated.

While I can see their point @WBB, I'm worried this creates a risk of encouraging the virus to mutate into vaccine resistant strains - I thought the WHO had mentioned a concern about the UK's 12 week gap between doses but surely the same point applies (even more) if you have a population of 50+s who are vaccinated and then have the under-50s unvaccinated for longer than absolutely necessary, you'll inevitably have a lot of virus cases in contact with people who've had the vaccine which surely would risk a mutant version that's resistant to the vaccine spreading ?

 

For me we should support ramping up vaccine production for worldwide distribution, but at the same time, get the UK population vaccinated to herd immunity level as fast as possible, plus slowly easing restrictions so we keep case numbers right down and have strict quarantine controls on all visitors/travellers (relying on testing only for lorry drivers etc).  The aim being we have the full adult population covered during the summer and can roll out booster jabs in September onwards to deal with virus mutations.

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43 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well, I think I may have Covid. Have been very careful so don't know how but bad sore throat and strange stomach ache at the moment plus a slight general body ache. Vaccine not in time for me ☹️. Test to be booked. No sleep whatsoever last night.

Best wishes sonyc

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Now here is a bit of worrying news ( can’t report good news all the time ).

It is estimated that 5% of those that get COVID are developing diabetes as the COVID cells attack the pancreas.

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