Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,345]

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-giving-67-protection-after-three-weeks-large-scale-research-shows-12217943

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

30 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Err no, the clinically vulnerable under 65's are already being vaccinated in our area. My son (early 50's) had his last Monday.

Yes but there are two definitions - clinically extremely vulnerable (G4) an clinically 'at risk' (G6). I would guess most with normal underlying conditions would fall into G6 if not over 65.

Anyway - it's splitting hairs.

 

The point I was trying to make is that opening up with few restrictions with less than 1/2 the population or worse vaccinated and letting it rip through those that aren't is a recipe for disaster. The prevalence would become large in the unvaccinated (and yes with much hospitalization and even deaths) and with no restrictions would certainly 'challenge'  all those vaccinated by the various strains running around (and we know at best 90% or less have immunity even vaccinated).

Are you feeling lucky ?

I can't think of a a better environment to actively encourage vaccine busting strains to go forth and multiply. Can you ?

 

Priority	Risk group
1	Residents in a care home for older adults and staff working in care homes for older adults
2	All those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
3	All those 75 years of age and over
4	All those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals (not including pregnant women and those under 16 years of age)
5	All those 65 years of age and over
6	Adults aged 16 to 65 years in an at-risk group (see clinical conditions below) [footnote 1]
7	All those 60 years of age and over
8	All those 55 years of age and over
9	All those 50 years of age and over
10	Rest of the population (to be determined)

[Indy 3,283]

50 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes but there are two definitions - clinically extremely vulnerable (G4) an clinically 'at risk' (G6). I would guess most with normal underlying conditions would fall into G6 if not over 65.

Anyway - it's splitting hairs.

 

The point I was trying to make is that opening up with few restrictions with less than 1/2 the population or worse vaccinated and letting it rip through those that aren't is a recipe for disaster. The prevalence would become large in the unvaccinated (and yes with much hospitalization and even deaths) and with no restrictions would certainly 'challenge'  all those vaccinated by the various strains running around (and we know at best 90% or less have immunity even vaccinated).

Are you feeling lucky ?

I can't think of a a better environment to actively encourage vaccine busting strains to go forth and multiply. Can you ?

 

Priority	Risk group
1	Residents in a care home for older adults and staff working in care homes for older adults
2	All those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
3	All those 75 years of age and over
4	All those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals (not including pregnant women and those under 16 years of age)
5	All those 65 years of age and over
6	Adults aged 16 to 65 years in an at-risk group (see clinical conditions below) [footnote 1]
7	All those 60 years of age and over
8	All those 55 years of age and over
9	All those 50 years of age and over
10	Rest of the population (to be determined)

I think your concerns are a little unfounded but I can respect what you say. No one is saying we should now open up a go, but also we can’t just keep going as we are for another 12 months that too is very destructive in many ways.

Israel info.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210211/New-study-shares-preliminary-data-on-Pfizer-vaccinee28099s-effectiveness-in-Israel.aspx

So as Ricardo says above group 6 is part of the vaccination process in the next phase, once they’re done and if the vaccine does indeed stop hospitalisation and reduces the estimated transmissibility, then with summer round the corner it’s got to be a slow process of coming out of the lockdown.

Your looking at it as though the vaccine is going to have no change to the future, almost the Winter second wave, when you consider the number of people who have had the virus and those already vaccinated that’s probably over 40% of our population.

while I agree to a step by step easing but we must get back to a level of normality quick as we can for the good of our young, elderly and economy.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Indy

[sonyc 5,491]

After reading the recent posts over the last 24 hours I felt this viewpoint might make a useful contribution.

I've followed this researcher for over a year. There are periodic articles and update commentaries in the Guardian. Here are her latest thoughts.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-pandemic-end-global-travel-restrictions-vaccine-access?

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

29 minutes ago, Indy said:

I think your concerns are a little unfounded but I can respect what you say. No one is saying we should now open up a go, but also we can’t just keep going as we are for another 12 months that too is very destructive in many ways.

Israel info.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210211/New-study-shares-preliminary-data-on-Pfizer-vaccinee28099s-effectiveness-in-Israel.aspx

So as Ricardo says above group 6 is part of the vaccination process in the next phase, once they’re done and if the vaccine does indeed stop hospitalisation and reduces the estimated transmissibility, then with summer round the corner it’s got to be a slow process of coming out of the lockdown.

Your looking at it as though the vaccine is going to have no change to the future, almost the Winter second wave, when you consider the number of people who have had the virus and those already vaccinated that’s probably over 40% of our population.

while I agree to a step by step easing but we must get back to a level of normality quick as we can for the good of our young, elderly and economy.

I'm not at all disagreeing with a cautious methodical opening up - much as per my earlier posts. 

What I am urgently trying to pour cold water on is those thinking that as we've all but vaccinated the 15M or most 20M 'at risk' as now - we can all go back to normal next month or early April!

No.

We open up say schools in mid March and see what happens - is the prevalence still going down - and if so we move on to the next step.

Hunt was right in that we can't go quasi-normal until the prevalences is < 1000/day and diminishing with TT able to cope.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Indy 3,283]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm not at all disagreeing with a cautious methodical opening up - much as per my earlier posts. 

What I am urgently trying to pour cold water on is those thinking that as we've all but vaccinated the 15M or most 20M 'at risk' as now - we can all go back to normal next month or early April!

No.

We open up say schools in mid March and see what happens - is the prevalence still going down - and if so we move on to the next step.

Hunt was right in that we can't go quasi-normal until the prevalences is < 1000/day and diminishing with TT able to cope.

But we’ll have to learn to live with and accept deaths by Covid the same as we do Flu, as time goes by there will be better and better treatments and vaccines will be tweaked to catch variants.

March will see an opening of schools, but unless we start to return to normal we will start to see the general population as in other parts of the globe start to rebel and protest against long term shut downs! Like I said it has to be planned and detailed to the public to keep people happy, we already have more people flouting the restrictions and come summer and low numbers, a lot of people will just do as they please.

im more confident in the numbers and sensible approach which will no doubt happen.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

11 minutes ago, Indy said:

But we’ll have to learn to live with and accept deaths by Covid the same as we do Flu, as time goes by there will be better and better treatments and vaccines will be tweaked to catch variants.

March will see an opening of schools, but unless we start to return to normal we will start to see the general population as in other parts of the globe start to rebel and protest against long term shut downs! Like I said it has to be planned and detailed to the public to keep people happy, we already have more people flouting the restrictions and come summer and low numbers, a lot of people will just do as they please.

im more confident in the numbers and sensible approach which will no doubt happen.

Yes - We just a need a clear 'project' plan with clear go / nogo gates for everybodies education.

 

[Barbe bleu 814]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm not at all disagreeing with a cautious methodical opening up - much as per my earlier posts. 

What I am urgently trying to pour cold water on is those thinking that as we've all but vaccinated the 15M or most 20M 'at risk' as now - we can all go back to normal next month or early April!

No.

We open up say schools in mid March and see what happens - is the prevalence still going down - and if so we move on to the next step.

Hunt was right in that we can't go quasi-normal until the prevalences is < 1000/day and diminishing with TT able to cope.

Contact tracing will never be able to cope in a world city with an effective population of many millions and high mobility on public transport.  And thats before we even begin to reflect on compliance with isolation demands.

Opening up will be/should be determined only by three things: levels of serious illness, community immunity level and border protection against variants currently in circulation.

The first of these is prime, the other two reflect our ability to keep it down to a minimum.

 

 

[paul moy 235]

3 hours ago, sonyc said:

After reading the recent posts over the last 24 hours I felt this viewpoint might make a useful contribution.

I've followed this researcher for over a year. There are periodic articles and update commentaries in the Guardian. Here are her latest thoughts.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/covid-pandemic-end-global-travel-restrictions-vaccine-access?

In the UK we are already working on booster jabs for variants which should be available in the autumn.  We have to accept an element of risk and start opening up as soon as the younger vulnerable have been innoculated for the good of the economy, jobs, schooling and the mental health of people that are really struggling now. 

As long as we continue to adhere to social distancing and hygiene rules, and the vulnerable stay at home if they are so concerned,  hospitals will not be overwhelmed, so there really is no more a reasonable excuse to keep us in a state of lockdown.  

People with vaccine passports should at least be allowed to travel in order to boost the world economy, hopefully by June. 

[Herman 9,713]

Can we all, as a nation, agree to ignore Steve Baker and the CRG clowns?? 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

8 minutes ago, Herman said:

Can we all, as a nation, agree to ignore Steve Baker and the CRG clowns?? 

If i've just heard the 3pm news correctly I think Johnson has just said pretty much what I've said (and many others) over the last few days.

We need to get the infection (prevalence) down and to stay down. All else follows from that.

He can be taught !

Edited February 15, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[paul moy 235]

I had the Astra vaccine yesterday and had a bad night of fever, chills and headache,  and today not much better.  Has anybody else been through this ? 

 

Did anybody have no side-effects ?

Edited February 15, 2021 by paul moy

[dj11 377]

58 minutes ago, Herman said:

Can we all, as a nation, agree to ignore Steve Baker and the CRG clowns?? 

It’s just the ERG giving us the benefit of their wisdom now that they have made such a success of Brexit. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by dj11

[Herman 9,713]

55 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

If i've just heard the 3pm news correctly I think Johnson has just said pretty much what I've said (and many others) over the last few days.

We need to get the infection (prevalence) down and to stay down. All else follows from that.

He can be taught !

As much as I love to give him a regular boot I feel that he has used the right tone today. Cautious optimism, not piling in head first and no false promises. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Herman

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

As much as I love to give him a regular boot I feel that he has used the right tone today. Cautious optimism and not piling in head first. 

Yes - I think he been fooled once, fooled twice by the usual suspects but won't be fooled a third time in relaxing restrictions. Cautious, steady, data driven and no rush for short term gain.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

33 minutes ago, paul moy said:

I had the Astra vaccine yesterday and had a bad night of fever, chills and headache,  and today not much better.  Has anybody else been through this ? 

 

Did anybody have no side-effects ?

Neither Mrs KG or I had any side effects other than a bit of tiredness.

[ricardo 7,345]

National

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Local

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, Indy said:

But we’ll have to learn to live with and accept deaths by Covid the same as we do Flu, as time goes by there will be better and better treatments and vaccines will be tweaked to catch variants.

March will see an opening of schools, but unless we start to return to normal we will start to see the general population as in other parts of the globe start to rebel and protest against long term shut downs! Like I said it has to be planned and detailed to the public to keep people happy, we already have more people flouting the restrictions and come summer and low numbers, a lot of people will just do as they please.

im more confident in the numbers and sensible approach which will no doubt happen.

I tend to agree that if indeed it is true as predicted by many, that Covid will not go away completely, then we will have to accept there will be excess deaths ongoing. 

Just in the same way that there are still 40K  global deaths a year from tetanus.

[ricardo 7,345]

36 minutes ago, paul moy said:

I had the Astra vaccine yesterday and had a bad night of fever, chills and headache,  and today not much better.  Has anybody else been through this ? 

 

Did anybody have no side-effects ?

Mrs R had arm ache and headache, chills next day but ok  after 24-36 hours. (AZ)

Apparently a good sign that shows the immune system is waking up.

I had Pfizer and just a slight arm ache next day, no other symptoms.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Mrs R had arm ache and headache, chills next day but ok  after 24-36 hours. (AZ)

Apparently a good sign that shows the immune system is waking up.

I had Pfizer and just a slight arm ache next day, no other symptoms.

Have you had your second jab yet Ricardo? I can't remember seeing a post to say you had.

[ricardo 7,345]

Just now, keelansgrandad said:

Have you had your second jab yet Ricardo? I can't remember seeing a post to say you had.

No, 12 weeks takes me through to mid April but it may be before that. The surgery says to wait until I hear from them.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just now, ricardo said:

No, 12 weeks takes me through to mid April but it may be before that. The surgery says to wait until I hear from them.

I thought those having Pfizer were not waiting 12 weeks?

[ricardo 7,345]

Just now, keelansgrandad said:

I thought those having Pfizer were not waiting 12 weeks?

I have had no information on that as yet.

[FenwayFrank 2,456]

43 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Mrs R had arm ache and headache, chills next day but ok  after 24-36 hours. (AZ)

Apparently a good sign that shows the immune system is waking up.

I had Pfizer and just a slight arm ache next day, no other symptoms.

Mrs Frank felt pretty dodgy Saturday, not so bad today, also AZ

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, paul moy said:

I had the Astra vaccine yesterday and had a bad night of fever, chills and headache,  and today not much better.  Has anybody else been through this ? 

 

Did anybody have no side-effects ?

Had mine first thing Saturday morning and so far no side effects so I'm hoping I've got away without any.

My wife had hers a couple of weeks ago and just had a headache the next morning which a couple of paracetamol saw off.

But to balance things up a bit my Mum who is in her nineties had hers a month ago and barely managed to get out of bed for the next four days...

[sonyc 5,491]

2 hours ago, paul moy said:

I had the Astra vaccine yesterday and had a bad night of fever, chills and headache,  and today not much better.  Has anybody else been through this ? 

 

Did anybody have no side-effects ?

As noted earlier I would take it as very encouraging to have such a reaction. Shows your body is triggering and that is a good sign. Hopefully, effects will reduce by about 36 hours.

[paul moy 235]

I found this today while investigating the Philippines for my next tour.   The Dengvaxia scandal involving Sanofi Pasteur whereby some 600 children died in 2016/17.

No wonder the French are being extra cautious,  but another downside is that people in the Philippines in particular may not take up vaccine offers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy

[Barbe bleu 814]

18 minutes ago, paul moy said:

I found this today while investigating the Philippines for my next tour.   

You randonly stumbled on this article did you? Are you sure you did not search for vaccination mistake stories?

[Barry Brockes 145]

I had my vax yesterday morning and have had no side effects at all. My very fit 39 year-old son was offered a left-over vax on Saturday at the end of his shift as a volunteer and is just getting out of bed for the first time in 36 hours having suffered awful side effects.

One of the nurses told me yesterday that the better your immune system, which tends to be younger people generally speaking, the more likely you are to suffer side effects.

My mother lives in a care home. Most of the staff and residents were vaccinated on the same day. Not one of the residents suffered any side effects but a few of the younger carers were off work for a couple of days afterwards mostly with muscular aches and pains and blinding headaches.

I'm no scientist but there might be something in it.

 

 

[Well b back 3,190]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

You randonly stumbled on this article did you? Are you sure you did not search for vaccination mistake stories?

Lol, he probably added French or German or at least European to the search I reckon.

Guys these are the safest vaccines ever produced, please do not listen to scare stories whatever the vaccine and wherever it comes from, safe and effective on a lancet paper means safe and effective. If you should not be having a particular one a doctor will tell you on the day.