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Just watched the daily briefing, whichever reporter insinuated that Boris was either too sick to work or not sick enough to be in a “valuable hospital bed” really raised my heckles. What sort of question is that?!

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32 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Just watched the daily briefing, whichever reporter insinuated that Boris was either too sick to work or not sick enough to be in a “valuable hospital bed” really raised my heckles. What sort of question is that?!

Political hacks are the wrong people to be asking questions on this pandemic. All seem to looking for a gotcha moment instead of a genuine update.

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53 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Testing Statics more comprehensive.

I see PHE are now giving more informative testing stats daily, here is today's stats for the past 24 hrs.

Total testings done 252, 958

Different persons tested 208,837. Some individuals have been tested more than once due to clinical reasons.

Tests in past 24 hrs 13,069 (N. Ireland not included).

And the infection rate dropped to below 29%, which is the lowest figure since 26th March and probably represents a widening of the population being tested.

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If (god forbid) anybody on here does get Covid, please ensure you have watched this video first. Potentially lifesaving breathing technique to avoid secondary complications and relieve coronavirus symptoms.

 

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Many thanks. I was a bit confused, did he mean with a pillow under your face? I don't understand why having it in front of you would do anything.

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3 hours ago, Badger said:

In summary, I agree that economics is not a "real" science, despite what is claimed by some, because it is trying to describe behaviour that is unpredictable and too complex to properly and reliably predict. However, that is not to say that it is without value and that govt's and businesses should ignore the information it provides. at the very least it provides a useful set of heuristics.

 

I think you're being a little bit unfair to economists there Badger although the joke is often made by economists themselves. 

It is very much a science - much the same as psychology or metrology etc.

It is just that as you say it is trying to understand and make predictions based on incomplete facts and also account for human 'irrational'  behaviour. As with the weather the further out you try and predict the greater the errors could be but trends are apparent - but nobody seriously now pretends man-made climate change doesn't exist.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

 

 

14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

I think you're being a little bit unfair to economists there Badger although the joke is often made by economists themselves. 

It is very much a science - much the same as psychology or metrology etc.

It is just that as you say it is trying to understand and make predictions based on incomplete facts and also account for human 'irrational'  behaviour. As with the weather the further out you try and predict the greater the errors could be but trends are apparent - but nobody seriously now pretends man-made climate change doesn't exist.

I think I may have said this before.

An economist is someone who will tell you tomorrow why the things he forecast yesterday didn't happen today.

Edited by ricardo

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Metrology is a good comparison. I think many people misunderstand just because you can’t forecast something exactly doesn’t mean the forecast isn’t useful for making policy. Regardless of what anyone here thinks just because they don’t understand it governments and businesses are using economic models all the time to make decisions  

 

The Coronavirus policy in all major countries is based on models. It is a useful ways of thinking though complex issues,testing theories and assessing what info you need. No one thinks that the outcome will be the same as the model but that doesn’t mean that models aren’t used all the time to think through policy. The alternative which most people do is make decisions based on gut instinct and personal experience which are very poor ways of thinking and making decisions. 

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18 minutes ago, T said:

Metrology is a good comparison. I think many people misunderstand just because you can’t forecast something exactly doesn’t mean the forecast isn’t useful for making policy.

To be fair, T, I said as much:

"at the very least it provides a useful set of heuristics."

My original point was about cutting aggregate demand during a recession, which most economists would acknowledge was a pretty dumb idea, but knowing about the trade cycle does not enable us to time it accurately - we might know a bust is coming, but knowing when is the hard part.

Economics was one of my subjects as Uni, and I took it as a BA not a B.Sc. I think the analogy that YF made with the weather is a good one, however, I would judge Economics to have even more variables and variables that behave differently at different times.

 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think you're being a little bit unfair to economists there Badger although the joke is often made by economists themselves. 

It is very much a science - much the same as psychology or metrology etc.

I don't wish to be unkind to economists, and took Economics as one of my subjects at university. I think that it is very useful for Govts, Businesses and private individuals. However, without going into a definition of science, which I am not fully capable of doing without research, I don't think that it would meet all the criteria.

I would point out that many Economics courses BAs not B.Scs. 

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I don't wish to be unkind to economists, and took Economics as one of my subjects at university. I think that it is very useful for Govts, Businesses and private individuals. However, without going into a definition of science, which I am not fully capable of doing without research, I don't think that it would meet all the criteria.

I would point out that many Economics courses BAs not B.Scs

So Badger, looking ahead and using your obvious knowledge of economics, which way would you recommend to find the most comfortable way to avoid meltdown? Austerity or capital spending and projects.

 

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NHS volunteer scheme begins today.

Brilliant community effort, fantastic central control or a bit of both.

Mainly the former for me but the cynic in me absolutely applauds the marketing of this as NHS work when really it isnt.

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32 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Here's an interesting graph I've just seen. Does this mean that the UK's curve will start to flatten very soon?

FB_IMG_1586255735848.jpg

Matt Hancock has suggested the peak could be around the coming Easter weekend. Time will tell.

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These graphs are instructive. See attached a FT video link here showing how numbers and graphs tell a story

 

 

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74 deaths in Scotland announced today for previous 24 hrs. If England announces a similar death rate per population, today could see a big leap up from yesterdays 421 UK figure.

Interesting statistic for week ending 27th March that only 4.8% deaths of total deaths in UK for that week were Covid 19 related. Although the % is undoubtedly higher for the weeks  we are in now, it still shows that plenty of people are still dying as per normal from a vast array of other causes.

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3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

74 deaths in Scotland announced today for previous 24 hrs. If England announces a similar death rate per population, today could see a big leap up from yesterdays 421 

Apparently this might be in part due to under reporting over the weekend and the figures catching up. 

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It has been confirmed again that we should not obsess with daily figures as they are deaths reported on a day not actual deaths which take up to two weeks to report. Also you still need to look at longer fluctuations due to natural variations. You are slways seeing an out of date picture. Given it takes about a month for people to die and up to 2 weeks to report there is a 6 week delay between actions and death figures. 

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Meanwhile in other ridiculous news

UFC president Dana White says he is close to securing a private island to continue hosting fights during the coronavirus crisis.

White says UFC 249 will go ahead on 18 April at an undisclosed location.

The organisation was forced to postpone three events in recent months, but White says the calendar will resume for international fights this month.

"As of April 18, the UFC is back up and running,"

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So Spain is fudging its figures and old folk are dying by their thousands not the quoted 800 or so daily and the government there is using the distraction of cv19 to change the political landscape, China has  lied over its figures and there are glaring holes in it's story, no surprise there and has destabilised the World's economy to boot, and we have our Police acting well outside any law. We have ofcom shutting down anyone daring to question 5G and its obvious destructive health and control issues. Free speech and the truth seem rare commodities. 

Is there going to be a tipping point when the disconnect between authority and the populace boils over? Certainly defining times. 

 

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758 dead in England today. Numbers looked better yesterday but that’s a big increase 

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43 minutes ago, T said:

It has been confirmed again that we should not obsess with daily figures as they are deaths reported on a day not actual deaths which take up to two weeks to report. Also you still need to look at longer fluctuations due to natural variations. You are slways seeing an out of date picture. Given it takes about a month for people to die and up to 2 weeks to report there is a 6 week delay between actions and death figures. 

Deaths are deaths  T, no matter when they get reported. Todays figure of 853 deaths is nearly 150 higher than the previous daily high, but ive no idea if it includes  out of hospital deaths.

Also people saying Italy and Spain are decreasing should  wait much longer  for that to be factual...its only just about stabilising and that could easily change. Over 750 deaths in Spain again, but you are right about delays, todays huge  death totals in Belgium and Netherlands both had an amount from weekend delays and delayed out of hospital deaths.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, JF said:

758 dead in England today. Numbers looked better yesterday but that’s a big increase 

I think as was indeed pointed out there is a 'weekend' beat' to the figures (delayed by a day i.e Sunday deaths are reported Monday and so on). You can see it past figures for three weekends now - a 'dip' for the weekend figures due to reporting delays and so on.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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18 minutes ago, Chumino said:

So Spain is fudging its figures and old folk are dying by their thousands not the quoted 800 or so daily and the government there is using the distraction of cv19 to change the political landscape, China has  lied over its figures and there are glaring holes in it's story, no surprise there and has destabilised the World's economy to boot, and we have our Police acting well outside any law. We have ofcom shutting down anyone daring to question 5G and its obvious destructive health and control issues. Free speech and the truth seem rare commodities. 

Is there going to be a tipping point when the disconnect between authority and the populace boils over? Certainly defining times. 

 

Have you any links to Spain fudging figures Chumino. I clumsily used the word fudge a week or two back when i  was writing about Germany graphs and stats, so we need to really be more explisite with links, me included.

You talk about tipping point and a  disconnect between authority and populace..any particular nation in mind or just generaly? I should think most populations of most nations in lockdown understand why it is a lockdown and that we are dealing with an invisible deadly killer that spreads bu human contact. But to understand your point needs a bit more clear explanation.

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Chumino said:

So Spain is fudging its figures and old folk are dying by their thousands not the quoted 800 or so daily and the government there is using the distraction of cv19 to change the political landscape, China has  lied over its figures and there are glaring holes in it's story, no surprise there and has destabilised the World's economy to boot, and we have our Police acting well outside any law. We have ofcom shutting down anyone daring to question 5G and its obvious destructive health and control issues. Free speech and the truth seem rare commodities. 

Is there going to be a tipping point when the disconnect between authority and the populace boils over? Certainly defining times. 

 

Whereas I might agree there are lots of 'holes' in everybodies figures including ours until such time as we actually know what percentage of the populations have had or have the disease (the anti-body test) the best we can hope is to be consistent with 'count' method so we can see trends.

I really hope you're not confusing 5G masts with CV-19 ?   

Edited by Yellow Fever

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21 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Have you any links to Spain fudging figures Chumino. I clumsily used the word fudge a week or two back when i  was writing about Germany graphs and stats, so we need to really be more explisite with links, me included.

You talk about tipping point and a  disconnect between authority and populace..any particular nation in mind or just generaly? I should think most populations of most nations in lockdown understand why it is a lockdown and that we are dealing with an invisible deadly killer that spreads bu human contact. But to understand your point needs a bit more clear explanation.

I have a very high up source in the Spanish health system, I see interior ministry figures and he tells me the truth at ground level. 

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35 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Deaths are deaths  T, no matter when they get reported. Todays figure of 853 deaths is nearly 150 higher than the previous daily high, but ive no idea if it includes  out of hospital deaths.

Also people saying Italy and Spain are decreasing should  wait much longer  for that to be factual...its only just about stabilising and that could easily change. Over 750 deaths in Spain again, but you are right about delays, todays huge  death totals in Belgium and Netherlands both had an amount from weekend delays and delayed out of hospital deaths.

Each days reported deaths though aren’t a days worth of deaths Eg you could get a few days deaths reported on on day from retain authorities as we have seen. How you count and define a covid 19 death also matters. Probably a 7 day rolling average would be more meaningful. The obsession with a day to day figure when they are not comparable And subject to normal fluctuations is meaningless as they are not underlying trends based on comparable numbers 

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7 minutes ago, Chumino said:

I have a very high up source in the Spanish health system, I see interior ministry figures and he tells me the truth at ground level. 

Classic fake news argument. Provide actually linked sources. Your 5g  moments make you look like an irresponsible fake news crank. 

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4 minutes ago, T said:

Each days reported deaths though aren’t a days worth of deaths Eg you could get a few days deaths reported on on day from retain authorities as we have seen. How you count and define a covid 19 death also matters. Probably a 7 day rolling average would be more meaningful. The obsession with a day to day figure when they are not comparable And subject to normal fluctuations is meaningless as they are not underlying trends based on comparable numbers 

Agreed - but the punters and media love it.

Its the difference between climate (and trend) and today's weather.

 

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