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18 minutes ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

I briefly popped on here late last night and noticed a thread about Boris being poorly in hospital. As it's disappeared, I''m guessing it got deleted due to the nasty comments that some decided to put?

It's at moments like this that you start to see people's true nature.

OTBC

This thread's been edited as well, removing KIO's images of an article referencing the Russian media that claimed Boris was on a ventilator.

I posted on here once that a Coventry defender who rented the flat above mine a year or so ago leaked into mine on two or three occasions and they removed that as well. They're a bit over-zealous on libel definitions.

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21 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

Now who on earth would do that Disco ?

Hello Til

I hope you are well.

Thing is, it wasn't just him. He was there, of course, vomiting his usual venom-laced nonsense, but others thought it was appropriate to attack a sick man as well.

Physician, heal thyself.

OTBC

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2 minutes ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

Hello Til

I hope you are well.

Thing is, it wasn't just him. He was there, of course, vomiting his usual venom-laced nonsense, but others thought it was appropriate to attack a sick man as well.

Physician, heal thyself.

OTBC

I am well thanks Disco as are you and yours i hope but i sit here and shake my head at some of the posts i have read these last few days. I am surprised that at least a couple of posters have not been called upon to participate in the daily broadcasts from Downing Street.

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I suppose many have seen the conspiracy theories circulating. I do not see how it is in any industrialised and trading nations interests to blow other economies.

Please educate me if I am misguided.

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Just read that a Tiger has contracted it. At a zoo.

Well if they hadn't isolated it for much of its life it never would have caught it.

  • Haha 2

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Just now, keelansgrandad said:

Just read that a Tiger has contracted it. At a zoo.

Well if they hadn't isolated it for much of its life it never would have caught it.

Bad news for cat lovers if it can be easily transfered to and from humans.

Larry should be worriedđŸ±

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3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Just read that a Tiger has contracted it. At a zoo.

Well if they hadn't isolated it for much of its life it never would have caught it.

Good luck to the person who's got to feed it a nice hot cup of Lemsip...

...as well as the person who had to take its temperature! 🐯

OTBC

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11 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Its going to be a long haul for everyone to. I honestly cannot see a complete freedom from all forms of lockdowns until a vaccine is found, produced and made to be taken, nobody has any idea when that will be, its total guesswork right now. So, there may be partial lifting of certain  parts of the lockdown, but the virus has the capability of returning to knock any improvement  back to square one.

But absolutely, the one bigger, much bigger, affect the virus will give us all, be it  personally, nationally or globally, is the economical situation. Just my opinion, but we are looking at worse scenario than two world wars and the late 20s deperession all rolled into one...and then some. Grim is not the word, people talk of getting back to normal...for most, it never will.

Economically I think we've gone through the Looking Glass, & probably did some time ago. Here's a preliminary ramble.

Most western economies are running astronomical debt. What does this mean for the lenders? It means they're locked in to an endless spiral. If the debtor countries go bust, their source of income disappears. it's only when a country becomes a basket case that it's worth the lender cutting their losses & refusing any more credit (e.g.bond buying). The rate of interest a country pays on its debt reflects the lender's perceived risk.

But how are they going to assess risk after the pandemic? How does it affect the financial risk involved with individual countries? It's not like war or depression or 'over exuberance' or anything we've experienced before in the modern interconnected world. What it's done is shown the complexity of modern life where great chains of interdependence can easily be broken. This affects all developed countries, but that is where most wealth is generated. If that gets broken permanently then the world order will change. Personally I don't think it will.

 

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36 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

This thread's been edited as well, removing KIO's images of an article referencing the Russian media that claimed Boris was on a ventilator.

I posted on here once that a Coventry defender who rented the flat above mine a year or so ago leaked into mine on two or three occasions and they removed that as well. They're a bit over-zealous on libel definitions.

My 5g mast burning thread has disappeared as well. It's on the BBC website, so hardly a secret :classic_laugh:

Mind you it engendered some pretty off the wall responses :classic_wacko:

 

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I've seen reporting that the antibody tests are at best 90% accurate.  If that is the case they are pretty much useless. Far too many false negatives still not working and false positives mingling.

And that's before you get involved in how we resource this, pay for it, maintain privacy,  and enforce the rules for everyone else when they see people put and about.

Could be brought in for some keyworkers, especially if they can be re tested but for general application? Nope

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Couple of interesting links...top one is from Channel 4 news a couple days ago with an interview with a leading front line Health worker in Gwent...its incredibly sobering to listen to and gives no doubt to any of us...if we didnt already know..why we should try avoid this virus at all costs.

Bottom link is 60 minutes program from Oz..first half concerning huge issues Australia has faced with cruise ships, in particular just an astonishing debacle with the Ruby Princess liner.

Second half shows the massive shortage of PPE equipment in Oz..sounds familiar i know...plus how  China...via its company subsiduaries...raided Oz of tons upon tons of PPE equipment early on in China's own battle against the virus. If this was repeated in many  lands it also shows how even the Chinese were woefully under prepared for the ferocity the virus would create in spreading thru the population.

 

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50 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I've seen reporting that the antibody tests are at best 90% accurate.  If that is the case they are pretty much useless. Far too many false negatives still not working and false positives mingling.

And that's before you get involved in how we resource this, pay for it, maintain privacy,  and enforce the rules for everyone else when they see people put and about.

Could be brought in for some keyworkers, especially if they can be re tested but for general application? Nope

But isn’t that why anti body testing isn’t generally available yet because it isn’t sufficiently reliable? The expectation from experts working on this internationally is reliable anti body testing is expected in next few weeks   They also need to know people are not being reinfected. So for not a solution now but good probability in the future. 

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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Bad news for cat lovers if it can be easily transfered to and from humans.

Larry should be worriedđŸ±

No more shaking hands for Larry

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2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Just read that a Tiger has contracted it. At a zoo.

Well if they hadn't isolated it for much of its life it never would have caught it.

If it's true can you provide me with some Lynx to the story?.....

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Anybody see Prof. Julian Peter on Sky News about 11.20 am? He reckons we could fix the virus in a week or two. Talking about testing everyone once a week (for existing, not antigen test). 10 million tests a day.

Says there's enough testing capability & people to operate the equipment (PCR machines) doesn't think the reagent is a problem.

Sounds a logistical nightmare to me. But he seemed extremely confident.

Let's hope someone's at least evaluating the possibility. Sharpish.

 

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Not seen but that it interesting. S Korea Shows conceptually at least measures are possible which can bring the risks in line with other risks we accept until a vaccine is available. I suspect that mitigating measures  could still take a few months to develop and we won’t see full release of restrictions until treatment and vaccines available but hopefully a workable acceptable compromise will evolve in the meantime between all and nothing restrictions. Ideally a mix of hope as well as heathy fear. 

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Posted (edited)

Former PM was on radio this morning about ideas of how testing might be organised ahead to get economic life restarting. Click on the bit.ly link for the article (sharing for interest as a constructive plan and not for particular reasons of endorsement)

Edited by sonyc
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Thanks Sonyc. I don’t care where from the political spectrum suggestions and solutions come from. I for one are am fed up with the polarised politics of the US and UK and are more interested in practical solutions where ever they come from. 

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1 hour ago, T said:

But isn’t that why anti body testing isn’t generally available yet because it isn’t sufficiently reliable? The expectation from experts working on this internationally is reliable anti body testing is expected in next few weeks   They also need to know people are not being reinfected. So for not a solution now but good probability in the future. 

Yes, I think that the lack of accuracy might be the main reason it is not in use.

If the estimates are that around 2 million have had it (as someone on here said) 90% accuracy would throw up far far more false results than true positive ones so what is the point?

Maybe we'll get a better test. Pregnancy tests are 99+%  accurate or something  like that so I guess it can be done but for now I think it's a red herring.

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Both Blair and the Peto bloke simply provide a practical solution. Certainly would make for a very single minded and worthwhile strategy and in fact would bring the country together. One hell of a logistics plan required.

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I guess we have massive logistics for all sorts of things so hopefully fits in way there is a will there is a way box. 

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On 04/04/2020 at 21:48, ron obvious said:

Sorry Badger, that won't do.

Without a time scale no model has any utility. Once again Popper's falsifiability criterion applies

And any model has to have been accurate over a long time scale. The longer the time over which the model has worked the more confidence can be placed in it.

Hard science, proper science, deals in time scales going back as far as we can measure. If we assume constants such as the velocity of light have had the same value since within microseconds of the Big Bang then those models work right up to the present day.
Now there is nothing to stop the 'laws' of physics changing tomorrow, but the models we have work extremely well using those laws, so our confidence in them is inordinately high. Higher than any other explanatory model we've ever had, simply because it's worked consistently for so long.

Does this apply to economic models? I suggest not. The trade cycle has only been going for, what, 100 years? 200 years? How many times has it been interrupted by war? Irrational market sentiment? Events??

There are very few constants in economics & a vast number of variables. About 7.8 billion of them. And how do you factor in technology - one of the main drivers of economic change?

Investment always leads to growth? Growth in what? It doesn't matter what you invest in then? By that criterion we might as well sponsor a massive hole digging programme, rapidly followed by a massive hole filling in programme. That'd be good for growth.

I think it matters a lot what you invest in, & that the investment should be in producing more stuff that people need or want; if it's generally felt, that we want more cars we can elect a government that facilitates more investment in car production. If we want more investment in the NHS we can elect a government on that basis. Obviously in reality we elect governments for a complex mix of reasons, but the principle holds.

I agree that the economic models are not as reliable as scientific models - nor are they ever likely to be, because they respond to human behaviour which is sometimes irrational (although some behavioural economists argue that is "predictably irrational"). It is precisely this irrationality which leads to boom and bust cycles (Keynes refers to animal spirits). During "booms" most people act as if things are going to stay like this for ever and don't recognise the need for fiscal discipline; during "busts" the reverse applies and people don't spend when they would be safe to do so but for understandable reasons of fear. It is precisely at these times that govt needs to step in with a fiscal stimulus to support the economy or run the risk of destroying productive capacity. Boris Johnson, to his credit, has done this: David Cameron did not for political and ideological reasons.

On investment, I partially agree but thought I had addressed the issue. There is no "guaranteed" investment/ "sure things" - hence my reference to "buying the market" spreading risk. There is a narrower range of areas which most economists describe as public goods, which the market will not provide or merit goods which they will under-provide, where the state normally has a more active role. As a general rule, though, I am not in favour of the state having a large role in provision of most goods/ services (despite what is said about socialists!).

In summary, I agree that economics is not a "real" science, despite what is claimed by some, because it is trying to describe behaviour that is unpredictable and too complex to properly and reliably predict. However, that is not to say that it is without value and that govt's and businesses should ignore the information it provides. at the very least it provides a useful set of heuristics.

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Thank you for your reasonable & well reasoned reply Badger. 

I think in reality we agree about economics. I just get fed up with some having too much belief in  their favourite economic models. It's my usual gripe against certainty, against people asserting their opinions are actually cast iron facts. Grrr!

In the absence of any properly scientifically based economics we have to do the best we can with what's available; most credible economists I've come across model several different possible scenarios & attach very large margins of error to all of them. It makes the determination of any course of action horrendously difficult; it becomes much more of an art than a science, & those best at it tend to have an instinctive 'feel' for human psychology, about how nation states are likely to behave in different circumstances.

Contrary to the majority opinion on here, I suspect Mr. Johnson is rather good at that

 

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Testing Statics more comprehensive.

I see PHE are now giving more informative testing stats daily, here is today's stats for the past 24 hrs.

Total testings done 252, 958

Different persons tested 208,837. Some individuals have been tested more than once due to clinical reasons.

Tests in past 24 hrs 13,069 (N. Ireland not included).

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