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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

I suspect its too soon to know if the Welsh lockdown was a success or not.

It appears to have achieved its instant aim of reducing infection rates but whether or not this translates into anything enduring is probably not known yet.

Not at all, it clearly has achieved its aims which were to reduce infection rates while mitigating disruption to normal life as far as possible - both by making the lockdown short but also taking advantage of the half term to minimise the impact on school children.

I think your use of 'instant' is completely redundant - they have achieved what they set out to do and that translates into fewer Welsh deaths in the next few weeks and gives the NHS in Wales, which was in danger of being swamped, some breathing space.

I think covers everything they were hoping to do and they did it in half the time that Johnson locked England down for, probably turn out to be less than half unless Johnson unlocks when he said he would, which at the moment looks unlikely.

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25 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Not at all, it clearly has achieved its aims which were to reduce infection rates while mitigating disruption to normal life as far as possible - both by making the lockdown short but also taking advantage of the half term to minimise the impact on school children.

I think your use of 'instant' is completely redundant - they have achieved what they set out to do and that translates into fewer Welsh deaths in the next few weeks and gives the NHS in Wales, which was in danger of being swamped, some breathing space.

I think covers everything they were hoping to do and they did it in half the time that Johnson locked England down for, probably turn out to be less than half unless Johnson unlocks when he said he would, which at the moment looks unlikely.

I'm thinking of the long term.  As you say the data suggests that infections were reduced, that was the aim of the policy, but was the policy the correct one?

If the result is only to delay rather than prevent infections overall it  won't really have achieved very much. If the result is to delay the peak until the hospitals are completely full with other problems it could fairly be judged as disastrous.

In truth we will only know the relative success or failure of any lockdown once we have a vaccination programme underway or if we sees patients being turned away for sake of space in hospitals.

France recorded nearly 1000 deaths yesterday. A lot of these lives lost were lives saved by their first lockdown- ie lockdown did not prevent them dying of covid, it just delayed the point at which this happened. True 4-6 months of extra life is precious, but I'd prefer lot , lot more if I was in that position

 

Edited by Barbe bleu
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I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

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6 minutes ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

Whatever our differences I hope you get over it quickly.

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1 hour ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

Sorry to hear J. Hope you continue to feel okay. 🤞

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16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Another small drop in the ZOE App numbers today.

And here too. By only 200 but a reduction is a reduction!

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1 hour ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

Its a free hangover.  If you are going to feel rough in the morning anyway you might as well take the opportunity 

 

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2 hours ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

Stay well my boy

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

And here too. By only 200 but a reduction is a reduction!

Figures in Broadland dropping back a bit on Zoe 👍

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Stay well my boy

Thanks, VW, I feel fine and no symptoms at present 👍 Having to isolate from the wife and daughter has its ups 😉

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm thinking of the long term.  As you say the data suggests that infections were reduced, that was the aim of the policy, but was the policy the correct one?

Well there are certainly a few people who want to debate that but the overwhelming scientific view and indeed the evidence so far from countries which have been successful (and continue to be successful) in minimising deaths says that it was the correct one. The fact that one of their aims was to stop their hospitals being overwhelmed which would not only have resulted in more Covid but also increases in non-Covid deaths because other serious illnesses were not able to be treated also says it was the correct policy.

If the result is only to delay rather than prevent infections overall it  won't really have achieved very much. If the result is to delay the peak until the hospitals are completely full with other problems it could fairly be judged as disastrous.

In truth we will only know the relative success or failure of any lockdown once we have a vaccination programme underway or if we sees patients being turned away for sake of space in hospitals.

France recorded nearly 1000 deaths yesterday. A lot of these lives lost were lives saved by their first lockdown- ie lockdown did not prevent them dying of covid, it just delayed the point at which this happened. True 4-6 months of extra life is precious, but I'd prefer lot , lot more if I was in that position

Frankly, that is a string of non-seqiturs. Nobody is explicitly 'saved' by a lockdown, all we know with reasonable certainly is that across the population the spread will be reduced and less people will die. We've also always known, with a fair degree of certainty, that there would be more than one wave of Covid, so by definition anyone who survives the first wave becomes a possible fatality in another wave.

I think it is ridiculous, frankly, to charactarise the first lockdown as a failure or even a very limited success because there are fatalities in the second. In any case I think you will find that a lot of 1000 people dying in France yesterday were infected before their lockdown started (or soon after by a family member/colleague etc who was), so I think you need to wait a bit longer to say their lockdown has failed.

Finally if you really want to debate whether lockdown is the 'correct' policy then you have to start being a lot more precise about what you mean by lockdown and indeed what your policy is expected to accomplish.

In the UK, and most other European countries, lockdown has been used purely to slow the spread the virus, there has been no serious attempt to completely stop the virus (Nicola Sturgeon might disagree, I think she was trying to head in that direction at one stage but it wasn't entirely practical as a Scotland only policy). In the UK we have also had the local version of lockdown which IMO has been a complete failure and the national version which was reasonably successful first time around.

However if we look to SE Asia and New Zealand, they are prime examples of countries whose strategy is completely different and whose lockdown policies were\are intended to totally stop the spread and eliminate the virus, and in that they have been pretty (though not entirely) successful.

In overall terms it is probably still too early to say what the most successful policy will turn out to be. But we are now almost a year into this crisis and the second major wave around the globe, and at the moment it is pretty clear that:

  1. The SE Asian countries and New Zealand who the eliminate stratgey have fared far, far better than the European\Western countries who have followed the contain strategy.
  2. Even within the countries that followed the contain strategy there are very marked differences in outcome, and sadly the UK has performed extremely poorly compared to it's peers.

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4 hours ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

Keep safe. None of us wish you anything but good health.

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Looks like California has its very own Dom

“California governor went to party, violated own virus rules

AOL.COM 3 hrs ago

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — For months, Gov. Gavin Newsom has pleaded with Californians to resist the temptation to socialize with friends and relatives outside their household. Turns out, he's the one who couldn't resist.

Newsom acknowledged Friday he attended a birthday party with a dozen friends on Nov. 6 at the posh French Laundry restaurant in wine country north of San Francisco.”

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2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Finally if you really want to debate whether lockdown is the 'correct' policy then you have to start being a lot more precise about what you mean by lockdown and indeed what your policy is expected to accomplish.

CM,  frankly I dont know if the Welsh government got it right, and nor does anyone else.   We will know once this is over and not before (unless the hospitals are overrun in december or january i guess)

This is why i have given the French example (others would work equally well-poland, romania and spain spring to mind)   Lockdown one there appeared to be a massive success, but since then the virus has very clearly made up for lost time and spreading  quite easily in a naive population.  Whether it will make up fully no one really knows yet.

let us be in no doubt  that success of any lockdown is based entirely on how quickly a vaccine  programme gets going. Unless of course herd immunity is gained the other way...

..

We've discussed NZ so many times on here.   Lockdown looks, so far, to have been the right policy for them, I am happy for NZ as it is a country very close to my heart. but NZ is not South Wales, its not even New South Wales.

My takeaway is that it is not over until its over. Lockdown puts nothing in the bank and any gains can be very rapidly lost.

Until it is we must at all time exercise our own controls and remain vigilent.

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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You might want to check out Sweden's excess deaths for the year

Figures just out

You lot are kin mugs

Enjoy the great reset

 

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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

We've discussed NZ so many times on here.   Lockdown looks, so far, to have been the right policy for them, I am happy for NZ as it is a country very close to my heart. but NZ is not South Wales, its not even New South Wales.

My takeaway is that it is not over until its over. Lockdown puts nothing in the bank and any gains can be very rapidly lost.

Until it is we must at all time exercise our own controls and remain vigilent.

 

Much of Eastern Europe missed out on the early spring pandemic but are now making up for it big time. We will all finish up in very similar size boats by the time this ends.

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

CM,  frankly I dont know if the Welsh government got it right, and nor does anyone else.   We will know once this is over and not before (unless the hospitals are overrun in december or january i guess)

This is why i have given the French example (others would work equally well-poland, romania and spain spring to mind)   Lockdown one there appeared to be a massive success, but since then the virus has very clearly made up for lost time and spreading  quite easily in a naive population.  Whether it will make up fully no one really knows yet.

let us be in no doubt  that success of any lockdown is based entirely on how quickly a vaccine  programme gets going. Unless of course herd immunity is gained the other way...

..

We've discussed NZ so many times on here.   Lockdown looks, so far, to have been the right policy for them, I am happy for NZ as it is a country very close to my heart. but NZ is not South Wales, its not even New South Wales.

My takeaway is that it is not over until its over. Lockdown puts nothing in the bank and any gains can be very rapidly lost.

Until it is we must at all time exercise our own controls and remain vigilent.

 

I think what you actually mean is that you are not prepared to admit that they got it right, and by implication Johnson got it wrong because you have a real issue with that concept.

Most of us know that the Welsh got it right because they identified that they had a serious and still developing crisis and they formulated a policy to mitigate against its effects, which it duly did - the policy was therefore by definition right unless you are going to try and suggest that they were wrong in setting the objectives which they did and so far you have totally failed to do that.

The idea that 'the virus has very clearly made up for lost time' between the two lockdowns is not just fanciful but utterly ridiculous - I've no idea in what fields your expertise lies but clearly even some very simple maths is beyond you if that is what you believe.

And finally meaningless truisms like 'it is not over until it its over' are just that and so what. We are in the middle of a crisis in which we are coping/performing very badly although we can see other countries coping much better. Nevertheless your advice is that we should carry on as we are, making the same mistakes we've already made all over again, ignoring the advice from people who have coped better and just muddle on through like that until it is all over, one way or the other, and then we'll do a drains up to see how we got on!

My God, you ought get your application in to be Johnson's new Chief of Staff, you sound as though you'd be ideal and let's face it,  your track record of defending him on here has been far more accomplished than the guys he's been paying mega-bucks for in No 10. Why should you be giving it away for free?

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8 hours ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

Best of luck, mate. Will be rooting for you.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Much of Eastern Europe missed out on the early spring pandemic but are now making up for it big time. We will all finish up in very similar size boats by the time this ends.

If there is any truth at all to the suggestions that working vaccines are now fairly close then that is quite simply untrue.

In fact it is simply not true even if the vaccines take longer - there are around 125 countries (i.e. around 58% of all countries) which have so far recorded less (some a lot less) than 100 deaths per 1m of population. Some of these countries are small but there are some very big ones in there as well.

The UK has currently recorded 761 deaths per 1m of population and rising quickly. The US has recorded 757 deaths per 1m of population and also rising quickly.

Germany, which I think most would accept as a reasonable country to compare ourselves with, has recorded 150 per 1m of population and is rising at about 25% of the speed of the UK. For the global perspective then the worldwide average is 169 per million of population. And let's not forget that these are purely Covid deaths, if we look at the more accurate excess deaths figure the picture for the UK gets even worse.

We are not all going to end up in similar sized boats by the time this all ends, not even close.

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I think what you actually mean is that you are not prepared to admit that they got it right, and by implication Johnson got it wrong because you have a real issue with that concept.

I might say that you have a real issue with saying that Johnson has ever done anything that's not borderline evil. 

I am not sure you'll see me praise the government once over the hundred of pages here or before. But equally I am not going to criticise where no criticism can be fully justified.  Happy for you to prove me wrong if you can

Easy points aside it might be a truism but the fact remains that this virus will continue through  population until the population is immune to the critical level,  be that the natural way or through vaccination.  Nothing we do can realistically change that fact.

I know I am beating this drum repeatedly but it doesn't seem to be getting through: lockdown doesn't stop the disease, it delays it. The only thing that will stop the disease being epidemic is when enough  of us are immune.

I actually support this current lockdown but I am not stupid enough to claim victory or defeat at half time.  When R is less than one with  no real restrictions that is when we can say it is coming to an end and that's when we can begin the grim count. 

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 Nevertheless your advice is that we should carry on as we are, making the same mistakes we've already made all over again, ignoring the advice from people who have coped better

This is utter rubbish.   Find one place, just one place where I have said this!  I support this lockdown.   I am , however realistic about lockdowns.   They can buy time but without a way of using the time bought they are pretty pointless.

In this case , however, it clearly did come with a plan- to bring numbers down and open up just a we expect to start handing out vaccines

 

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

The idea that 'the virus has very clearly made up for lost time' between the two lockdowns is not just fanciful but utterly ridiculous - I've no idea in what fields your expertise lies but clearly even some very simple maths is beyond you if that is what you believe.

 

Just look at France and Spain, and Romania and Poland etc etc.   The virus came back, and with more limited immunity in the community than would otherwise have been the case it was able to spread quickly. That’s what epidemics do.  That's the basic maths of this, that's how it can quickly make up for lost time if we do not remain  vigilent.

 

And let's not be offensive, it demeans us both

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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40 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

We are not all going to end up in similar sized boats by the time this all ends, not even close.

I hope you're right.   If you are proved correct it will be because as a world we have done something absolutely incredible with the vaccines.

Incidentally i am not entirely sure that we all started in the same place.  The differences between rates in latin America, Europe America and the East and South East asia really need some thought but we've had this discussion in the past

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

Most of us know that the Welsh got it right 

And to summarise my last post. No,  no you dont know that and nor does anyone.

In due course when the count is done we might well decide that the Welsh government got it right.  All I am doing is cautioning against deciding anything ahead of knowing the facts

 

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I

This is utter rubbish.   Find one place, just one place where I have said this!  I support this lockdown.   I am , however realistic about lockdowns.   They can buy time but without a way of using the time bought they are pretty pointless.

 

Even this Government could hardly be clearer about the point of the lockdown. It is fundamentally about preventing the NHS being overwhelmed and unable to function

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The Swedish model is getting a bit of a kicking.

 

Edited by Herman
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