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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

What I can’t figure is what the graph is showing, what is Hospital Admissons R?

Its the rate of R determined by hospitalisation data. Don't ask me how they work it out.

I note that the ZOE app continues to show a slow decline in numbers.

Edited by ricardo

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This is the R by region by specimen date of positives. Don't ask me how they work that out either.

image.png.0a3a3bbc9b42bca0b9d72b9303928a1a.png

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10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its the rate of R determined by hospitalisation data. Don't ask me how they work it out.

I note that the ZOE app continues to show a slow decline in numbers.

These are the figures for Welsh regions which can be understood .....as they say in Yankee land 😉

image.png

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20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

These are the figures for Welsh regions which can be understood .....as they say in Yankee land 😉

image.png

I reckon they must have all sat at home catching it then.😀

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Looks to have been effective.

A very clear effect. It was stated that only until mid November would they have known about the effect of their lockdown. Obviously I keep an eye on the Rhondda😉

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2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

A very clear effect. It was stated that only until mid November would they have known about the effect of their lockdown. Obviously I keep an eye on the Rhondda😉

As we do 😁

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ONS "The R rate for the UK is estimated to have fallen to between 1.0 and 1.2, the number of new daily infections remains around the 50,000 mark, the latest figures show."

Good to see R fallen, still a massive number of daily infections but some signs of progress, in some areas at least.

Edited by Van wink
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Just read up on the so called Mink variant of Covid 19 in North Denmark, which has between 5-7 mutations and can possibly render  vaccines useless and pretty much kill a persons immunity stone dead against Covid..no wonder Matt Hancock and other health professionals are concerned by this, if it got out and travelled the globe it really could be the ultimate nightmare.

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3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Just read up on the so called Mink variant of Covid 19 in North Denmark, which has between 5-7 mutations and can possibly render  vaccines useless and pretty much kill a persons immunity stone dead against Covid..no wonder Matt Hancock and other health professionals are concerned by this, if it got out and travelled the globe it really could be the ultimate nightmare.

Well that's spolit the day!

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55 minutes ago, ricardo said:

ZOE App shows another small drop. Now down about 6% on the week.

Still up here Ricardo. Depressingly so (11500 today). An outlier perhaps.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

ZOE App shows another small drop. Now down about 6% on the week.

Zoe was mirroring ONS for a good while, made it a very good reflection of the best data, there has been a bit of a divergence recently but still good data.

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14 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Still up here Ricardo. Depressingly so (11500 today). An outlier perhaps.

With such high levels of infection across the country it doesn’t take much disregard for good infection control in a region to get the infection growing again. 

Edited by Van wink

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Zoe was mirroring ONS for a good while, made it a very good reflection of the best data, there has been a bit of a divergence recently but still good data.

I like Zoe but I do recognise that those that report for Zoe are not a fair sample of the population but by definition a self selecting sort.

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19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Still up here Ricardo. Depressingly so (11500 today). An outlier perhaps.

Disappointing.

In Norwich and much of Norfolk there has been a slight uptick in the last week but nowhere near the numbers in your area.

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I was in Aldi today (other supermarkets are available). And I was the only person I saw cleaning the trolley or gelling the hands. I stood to wait at the end of an aisle as one or two were hovering over which bacon to select.

A woman came up to me within 6 inches and shouted in my ear "nobody is bothering with social distancing are they ".

Just as listening to Radio Cornwall and people ringing up complaining that "while the missus and me were out, lots of people were out, not bothering to stay in like they are supposed to".

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57 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I was in Aldi today (other supermarkets are available). And I was the only person I saw cleaning the trolley or gelling the hands. I stood to wait at the end of an aisle as one or two were hovering over which bacon to select.

A woman came up to me within 6 inches and shouted in my ear "nobody is bothering with social distancing are they ".

Just as listening to Radio Cornwall and people ringing up complaining that "while the missus and me were out, lots of people were out, not bothering to stay in like they are supposed to".

We will reap what we sow KG

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34 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We will reap what we sow KG

Indeed. I also noticed the red light/green light outside the supermarket. I much preferred the previous one out one in in the previous lockdown.

Primark in Truro worked out that the square foot total of the store would allow over 300 in.

However, its over two floors. Female ground, Male 1st floor. What if there were 299 women shopping for women's clothes and just one man after mens.

Reality and common sense are missing along with one size fits all vaccine.

 

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Thanks sony.  I get the sense that Most of the scientists are probably largely agreed that the tier system is the post lockdown future. If I was a gambler I would say that after lockdown it will be a few weeks at the lower tiers and then regions will go back up.

I'm not seeing  a return to April levels in this but the news put of France is hardly positive and I understand that Spain has a recordeding system that is not comparable, so still a lot of dry wood to burn through in some regions.   London perhaps the best placed region.

 

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5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

I was in Aldi today (other supermarkets are available). And I was the only person I saw cleaning the trolley or gelling the hands. I stood to wait at the end of an aisle as one or two were hovering over which bacon to select.

A woman came up to me within 6 inches and shouted in my ear "nobody is bothering with social distancing are they ".

Just as listening to Radio Cornwall and people ringing up complaining that "while the missus and me were out, lots of people were out, not bothering to stay in like they are supposed to".

Relax, KG. You have had very few Covid deaths since middle of May. The Grim Reaper is passing you by

cornwall.JPG

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7 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Thanks sony.  I get the sense that Most of the scientists are probably largely agreed that the tier system is the post lockdown future. If I was a gambler I would say that after lockdown it will be a few weeks at the lower tiers and then regions will go back up.

I'm not seeing  a return to April levels in this but the news put of France is hardly positive and I understand that Spain has a recordeding system that is not comparable, so still a lot of dry wood to burn through in some regions.   London perhaps the best placed region.

 

There were reports yesterday evening suggesting we may need restrictions right up to and through Christmas and even scepticism that the tiers were working....though the evidence is mixed and inconsistent, because in some areas it has seemed to have influenced a tail off. I suppose given that each city region is not able to achieve geographical isolation in terms of peoples' movements that is no surprise.

I've read too that whole areas will be tiered not just city areas (e.g. the whole of the north etc). One thing I took from the graphs overall is that it remains very uncertain. Scientists feel they may know more in a week (or two!). Lockdown so far is only just over a week. The Wales graphs show a distinct reduction (ditto NI). Hospitalisations are rising too but in a controlled increase sense rather than April's sudden peaking.

Who knows!

Unlike in July when I thought we had seen the back of it, it's uncomfortable up north (Yorks) for sure. And as some posters have (rightly) stated, if we knew of all other death rates from flu etc reported in the way they are now with C19, would we be as concerned? It's changed behaviours and level of anxiety.

Only yesterday it was brought into sharp relief for me coming across an elderly couple on the moor, he had collapsed and we had to use What 3 Words to get the ambulance there. Luckily it was an angina attack and he improved so hopefully he will be okay. Whilst I was of use (dog kept wanting to give the bloke her ball!) it struck home (if I needed to be reminded), death can just be round the corner! Also, was impressed by the NHS.

 

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8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

There were reports yesterday evening suggesting we may need restrictions right up to and through Christmas and even scepticism that the tiers were working....though the evidence is mixed and inconsistent, because in some areas it has seemed to have influenced a tail off. I suppose given that each city region is not able to achieve geographical isolation in terms of peoples' movements that is no surprise.

I've read too that whole areas will be tiered not just city areas (e.g. the whole of the north etc). One thing I took from the graphs overall is that it remains very uncertain. Scientists feel they may know more in a week (or two!). Lockdown so far is only just over a week. The Wales graphs show a distinct reduction (ditto NI). Hospitalisations are rising too but in a controlled increase sense rather than April's sudden peaking.

Who knows!

Unlike in July when I thought we had seen the back of it, it's uncomfortable up north (Yorks) for sure. And as some posters have (rightly) stated, if we knew of all other death rates from flu etc reported in the way they are now with C19, would we be as concerned? It's changed behaviours and level of anxiety.

Only yesterday it was brought into sharp relief for me coming across an elderly couple on the moor, he had collapsed and we had to use What 3 Words to get the ambulance there. Luckily it was an angina attack and he improved so hopefully he will be okay. Whilst I was of use (dog kept wanting to give the bloke her ball!) it struck home (if I needed to be reminded), death can just be round the corner! Also, was impressed by the NHS.

 

Agreed, the next couple of weeks will show us if this “lockdown” is having much effect. I hope it does but I fear it’s not been tough enough or observed sufficiently to make a significant difference ( as in Wales ) with so much infection around. 
Hope the old boy is ok, our dog is the same, gives any stranger his ball but then nudges them really hard with his nose, often in inappropriate places 😳

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Hope the old boy is ok, our dog is the same, gives any stranger his ball but then nudges them really hard with his nose, often in inappropriate places 😳

 

I hope so. They had been married 47 years and his wife 'knew' something wasn't right about him. They had walked a good way before. Even lying prone I could see him smile as the dog gave him the ball and pressed it into his hand stretched at his side. It was a good sign! Dogs are the ultimate healers.

I'm not convinced either about numbers being affected enough, not to influence the lagged hospital admissions we know about. I'm guided by Zoe here for my yardstick. It's as good as any.

 

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I suspect its too soon to know if the Welsh lockdown was a success or not.

It appears to have achieved its instant aim of reducing infection rates but whether or not this translates into anything enduring is probably not known yet.

I'm pretty hopeful though and honestly believe that we have pushed the virus back enough that the vaccine will be able to do its job before April levels are met anywhere.

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