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Whilst  i do think a lockdown was and is  necessary, for the 3 reasons i said, one also has to look at  the stats for what they are. As regards  the UK new daily infections, i dont know if nationally theyve decreased much, but for sure in North England areas they seem to be, but also nationally they have not increased above the 26k that was recorded 3 Wednesdays back.

Also, while todays deaths of 595 is the worst in this  2nd wave, its still  a good way behind the worst daily from April 21st when over 1,100 died. Also deaths  seem to be right now on a par with other nations like France and Italy, or actually  a bit below theirs.

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5 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Whilst  i do think a lockdown was and is  necessary, for the 3 reasons i said, one also has to look at  the stats for what they are. As regards  the UK new daily infections, i dont know if nationally theyve decreased much, but for sure in North England areas they seem to be, but also nationally they have not increased above the 26k that was recorded 3 Wednesdays back.

Also, while todays deaths of 595 is the worst in this  2nd wave, its still  a good way behind the worst daily from April 21st when over 1,100 died. Also deaths  seem to be right now on a par with other nations like France and Italy, or actually  a bit below theirs.

As we are now well into the winter respiratory hospitalisation period,  increases are sadly to be expected  so these numbers to remain high for several more weeks. In normal years it tails off quickly after the end of December. This will be true for all countries in the Northern temperate zone but probably worse in Eastern European nations that missed much of the initial epeidemic.

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People in their 20s are still testing positive for Covid-19 more than any other age groups across Devon and Cornwall; except in Torbay, where people in their 50s are.

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7 hours ago, ricardo said:

305k  tests 

22950 - 595       7days ago  25177   14 days ago  24701  21 days  26688

positives still trending down

As expected the Tues / Wed effect on fatalities

 

Inpatients  14196  up 579 since last update

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy         35089 - 580

France    42207 - 857 

Spain     17395 - 411

Germany  16668 - 203

In the springtime this message board was in meltdown when our positives were higher than any comparable european country. But now Italy and France are way, way above the UK nobody mentions those countries any more. And soon Germany will be higher than us. What will posters say then? Nothing, I expect.

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We are the first European country to pass 50k deaths Rocky. Nothing at all to be smug about. 

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And here's an explanation of why we are at that dreadful total:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/who-was-shocked-by-britain-s-coronavirus-response/ar-BB1aUp47?ocid=msedgntp

WHO was shocked by Britain's coronavirus response

 

The World Health Organisation was shocked by Britain's COVID-19 response and alarmed that the government was aiming for herd immunity, leaked recordings show.

Speaking during a private meeting in March, the executive director of WHO's Health Emergencies programme, Irishman Dr. Michael Ryan, described Britain's pandemic herd immunity strategy as 'problematic'. 

'For that to happen, hundreds of thousands and millions of older people are going to become infected and there is just going to be so much death,' Ryan said of the plan.

His comments came after hearing the U.K.'s chief scientific officer, Sir Patrick Vallance, publicly say the country was aiming for herd immunity. 

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11 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

In the springtime this message board was in meltdown when our positives were higher than any comparable european country. But now Italy and France are way, way above the UK nobody mentions those countries any more. And soon Germany will be higher than us. What will posters say then? Nothing, I expect.

It is a natural progression RTB. Once out of lockdown the virus began to spread again.   Slow at first in the off season, growing as the days shortened and got colder.  

No one has done anything to stop rather than delay spread so the virus is merrily making its way up to herd immunity level for that population.

If vaccines were to come to naught and we all largely gave up on suppression I would expect France with a slightly smaller and more dispersed population to have slightly slower growth and slightly less deaths overalls,  Italy to be slightly less than that.  Germany with larger, more dispersed population would reach a higher figure, but slower.

These figures are to be expected.  The one interesting bit is Germany still doing so well.

Vaccines are on the horizon so Germany the stand out.  Spain takins the wooden spoon. France and Italy hoping that vaccines come soon enough that they stay ahead of Belgium and the UK.

Latin America are in a different race altogether unfortunately.

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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19 hours ago, ricardo said:

Prof Spector and the ZOE app was the flavour of the day while the figures were going up. Now its all in the bin since they've been dropping and he recanted the Orthodoxy.

Ricardo, I do think Zoe is the flavour of the day but when you live where we are you would feel far more nervous about Covid ....least I believe you would. I trust the figures I see from Zoe. Ours have increased 3000 in 24 hours!

 

IMG_20201112_125446.jpg

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But nationally, cases are in decline. Total ZOE cases dropped about 1.5% again today. Yorkshire certainly still in a bad way but North West improving and the quiet areas remain quiet.

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

33400 positives today, big jump.

Thanks. This makes sense if my area is any guide. I was astonished to see case numbers rise from 7k to over 10k. I was hoping it was due to trail off. Yet, I keep reading R is now below 1. Must be a lag?

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

33400 positives today, big jump.

Must be the weekend numbers catching up 😉

Stick to the ONS or REACT studies which I see came out earlier i.e. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Makes it pretty clear that apart from the NW its still generally growing - Tier 3 has an effect (as will the lockdown). Progressing now into the elderly sadly. Anyway all can read.

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7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

33400 positives today, big jump.

Indeed VW, more than 7k up on the 26k of 3 weeks ago and to, this coming on a Thursday, not the normal Tuesday / Wednesday high figures. Will need to wait some days to see if UK is now heading into the 30k's as a normal daily or if this is just a one off blip, but it highlights to me the absolute need for this present lockdown, albeit how  bad it is economically and for some, mentally to.

Globally to, yesterday  was a record high for deaths, first time the daily deaths  climbed above 10,000 so make no mistake,  globally Covid 19 is still increasing at a steady rate and shows no sigms of slowing down.

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17 minutes ago, Van wink said:

33400 positives today, big jump.

Also a massive increase in testing numbers since yesterdays figures. Up by 72k so difficult to compare with previous weeks by number rather than by percentage. The previous seven day average was 7.4% . Todays figure looks like 8.7%.

I suspect the mass testing now taking place in Liverpool is going to skew the figures and prevent any valid comparison.

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10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Also a massive increase in testing numbers since yesterdays figures. Up by 72k so difficult to compare with previous weeks by number rather than by percentage. The previous seven day average was 7.4% . Todays figure looks like 8.7%.

I suspect the mass testing now taking place in Liverpool is going to skew the figures and prevent any valid comparison.

Not sure the Liverpool figures have made that much difference but certainly we should be looking at trend rather than daily figures 

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7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Also a massive increase in testing numbers since yesterdays figures. Up by 72k so difficult to compare with previous weeks by number rather than by percentage. The previous seven day average was 7.4% . Todays figure looks like 8.7%.

I suspect the mass testing now taking place in Liverpool is going to skew the figures and prevent any valid comparison.

The huge amount of daily testings has to be weighed into the overall picture for sure, its a far off cry from those days of Spring when we had testings of only 10 or 20k a day...we simply do not know how many had been infected those days, its a complete guessing game for that period. Even now of course we dont know an exact daily number, no nation could know, but definitely  its  a much higher number of  infections that are being caught and counted.

Much was made yesterday of UK being the first nation to hit 50k deaths in Europe, as if we are some kind of Covid Pariah nation. Stats can be looked at and analysed in many ways of course, but when you see a nation that has the 2nd highest population in Europe and also a country, England, within that nation with the 2nd highest density of population compared to rest of mainland Europe, thats a double whammy that no other European nation comes close to matching, so no surprise to me that we hit 50k first.

Perhaps some other forum member knows but the 50k deaths in the UK is for all deaths with Covid 19 mentioned on the death certificate, not necessarily actually dying because of Covid. Does every other single European nation follow this route or do some just report deaths  from actual  cause from Covid?

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22 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Not sure the Liverpool figures have made that much difference but certainly we should be looking at trend rather than daily figures 

Trends yes.

If I read correctly there was a lull and then an uptick. - but too soon to say (REACT) if meaningful.

I suspect although only a personal opinion it's the school 1/2 term effect that came and went.

Be wary of the daily confirmed figures - who are we testing, where, how many times and so on. Any number of distortions from the actual regional prevalence both high (students) and low (self-employed).

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Thanks. This makes sense if my area is any guide. I was astonished to see case numbers rise from 7k to over 10k. I was hoping it was due to trail off. Yet, I keep reading R is now below 1. Must be a lag?

Not looking good up your way SONYC

 

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Yes, there is some truth in this Y.F.
 
I have found it difficult to align the number of positives by date with the number of tests due to different methods of reporting. This chart seems to give to best overview with tests by specimen date. Those with more than one test are only counted once. This is the one that should show accurate trends.
 
image.thumb.png.056aad642f9bbb3e62a6e11b2813dfe2.png
Edited by ricardo
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32 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

The huge amount of daily testings has to be weighed into the overall picture for sure, its a far off cry from those days of Spring when we had testings of only 10 or 20k a day...we simply do not know how many had been infected those days, its a complete guessing game for that period. Even now of course we dont know an exact daily number, no nation could know, but definitely  its  a much higher number of  infections that are being caught and counted.

Much was made yesterday of UK being the first nation to hit 50k deaths in Europe, as if we are some kind of Covid Pariah nation. Stats can be looked at and analysed in many ways of course, but when you see a nation that has the 2nd highest population in Europe and also a country, England, within that nation with the 2nd highest density of population compared to rest of mainland Europe, thats a double whammy that no other European nation comes close to matching, so no surprise to me that we hit 50k first.

Perhaps some other forum member knows but the 50k deaths in the UK is for all deaths with Covid 19 mentioned on the death certificate, not necessarily actually dying because of Covid. Does every other single European nation follow this route or do some just report deaths  from actual  cause from Covid?

As I understand the 50,000 + is people that died within 28 days of a positive Covid test. The number dieing with Covid mentioned on their death certificate is 62,000.

A bit like Sonyc here in the Midlands we have been in the higher 2 tiers for several weeks and numbers are still going up. 

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3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

As I understand the 50,000 + is people that died within 28 days of a positive Covid test. The number dieing with Covid mentioned on their death certificate is 62,000.

A bit like Sonyc here in the Midlands we have been in the higher 2 tiers for several weeks and numbers are still going up. 

YES - I think of Tier 2 as the Tier 3 waiting room.  Tier 3 does seem to have an effect though as expected.

It all adds up to this 4 week 'break' as being painful but necessary.

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5 minutes ago, ricardo said:
Yes, there is some truth in this Y.F.
 
I have found it difficult to align the number of positives by date with the number of tests due to different methods of reporting. This chart seems to give to best overview with tests by specimen date. Those with more than one test are only counted once. This is the one that should show accurate trends.
 
image.thumb.png.056aad642f9bbb3e62a6e11b2813dfe2.png

Yes agreed - I've always been doubtful from the very start (calling for random testing) as to how meaningful any non-random daily 'confirmed' case numbers are. They don't (or shouldn't) jump around by thousands daily up or down but follow a trend given the large numbers. 

I very much suspect the number shot up in September/October because of Students (easily and extensively tested) - but these are now dropping out to be replaced by more 'community' growth albeit at a slower but more deadly rate. 

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6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The Welsh lockdown doesn't seem to have done much good to their R rate.

image.png.a457042f09729c3c6d405967e88ddf4b.png

Thats their hospital admissions?...... you would expect a lag........maybe I have misunderstood that....what ia Hospital Admissions R

Edited by Van wink

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image.thumb.png.c2ac4e3132e0028e615c79b4f498173c.png

 

This chart also looks like a better way to look at hospitalisations over time. Appears to be flattening.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy         32961 - 623

France    35879 - 328

Spain     19096 - 349

Germany  20536 - 222

Edited by ricardo

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11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Thats their hospital admissions?...... you would expect a lag........maybe I have misunderstood that....what ia Hospital Admissions R

The Welsh Lockdown began on 23rd Oct with R at almost its lowest point. It ended on the 9th Nov.

As they say in Yankee Land "Go figure".

Edited by ricardo

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42 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Not looking good up your way SONYC

 

No it isn't. 8 deaths reported today for the last 24 hours but no news on hospitals not bring able to cope as yet. On TV though last night the senior clinician stated he was worried for winter. The C19 unit is however currently experiencing higher numbers than in April.

Can't say I'm not worried but then maybe that's because I'm a worrier. Just heard that two of my cousins in London have tested positive too. Mild symptoms at present and hope it stays that way. The hospitalisation rates last wave were high because of London's big hit weren't they? The capital took the brunt. I've read too that oxygen supplies are running low in hospitals on the east coast of Yorkshire because of demand.

I don't know what the answer is policy-wise anymore. It's easy to use the keyboard and complain. At least no PPE complaints this time, nor ventilation worries, nor testing capacity (of course T & T is well criticised but numbers hugely up since April). And care homes are faring better?  As for the tiers and lockdown, maybe we have to see in a week or perhaps two?

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9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The Welsh Lockdown began on 23rd Oct with R at almost its lowest point. It ended on the 9th Nov.

As they say in Yankee Land "Go figure".

What I can’t figure is what the graph is showing, what is Hospital Admissons R?

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

No it isn't. 8 deaths reported today for the last 24 hours but no news on hospitals not bring able to cope as yet. On TV though last night the senior clinician stated he was worried for winter. The C19 unit is however currently experiencing higher numbers than in April.

Can't say I'm not worried but then maybe that's because I'm a worrier. Just heard that two of my cousins in London have tested positive too. Mild symptoms at present and hope it stays that way. The hospitalisation rates last wave were high because of London's big hit weren't they? The capital took the brunt. I've read too that oxygen supplies are running low in hospitals on the east coast of Yorkshire because of demand.

I don't know what the answer is policy-wise anymore. It's easy to use the keyboard and complain. At least no PPE complaints this time, nor ventilation worries, nor testing capacity (of course T & T is well criticised but numbers hugely up since April). And care homes are faring better?  As for the tiers and lockdown, maybe we have to see in a week or perhaps two?

Looking at the Coronavirus. dat site it does look like hospitalisations are flattening out. The BBC news said numbers have even declined in Liverpool and the North West so some good news there. You appear to be bearing the brunt at the moment but it does seem that there is spare capacity in other regions. Positives still low in Norwich although there has been a slight uptick.

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