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2 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Couple of important things to remember..one is that the Italy / Euro strain of Covid and to the Brazil , C and S American strain of Covid were scientfically proven to be mutantly different to the Asian strain...plus a Chinese government can willingly force and tell its population  what to do, and Taiwanese, Korean, Vietnamese  governments have a populations that mostly rigidly adhere to what their governments say...Bill long ago, as well as others, noted that in the West the general populations just cant and wont adhere to a strict policy of rigid enforcements  with Covid..its not always about governments being smart or otherwise, its about what their subjects will go along with that matters.

Whilst there is something in what you say regarding the cultural differences between European and S.E Asian populations that doesn't go anywhere near explaining the massive difference in outcomes that those countries achieved - and anyway during the first lockdown in this country we had no significant issues with the population adhering to the rules, apart of course from the the PM's chief advisor and a handful of Tory MPs.

And it isn't just about whether the lockdown is adhered to either, the timing is crucial. Those governments were much smarter than the UK (and some of the other Europeans) by going early and effectively nipping the virus spread in the bud, rather than let it spread everywhere and only try to contain it as it threatens to get completely out of control - this is in fact a totally different strategy, their lockdowns were intended to eliminate the virus completely and to a very large extent they suceeded. Our strategy, if you can call it a strategy, was never to eliminate it but to limit it to an acceptable level - without ever having a definition of what an acceptable level was, or in other words just trying to muddle through in entirely re-active mode and no clear objective or strategy.

Finally it's not a always cultural thing either, look at New Zealand and Greece for two examples who very successfully followed the SE Asian model, no dissent from the population, very few deaths and an economic hit for sure but nowhere as severe as the one we've inflicted on ourselves.

Of course I'm not suggesting that it is the only factor but however unpalatable it may be for some, if you look at the hugely differing outcomes that countries have achieved the defining factor has been the competence and decisiveness of the government response. This not only has a very direct effect, but it also creates a feedback loop - returning to the question of adherence it is very clear that leaders who are trusted and viewed as competent, such as Arden and Merkel or even Sturgeon have a positive impact on adherence to the restrictions. Even Johnson, despite his very obvious flaws, was given the benefit of doubt by most at the start of the crisis but that trust has completely evaporated as the shambles in the UK has steadily unfolded.

Ultimately it does boil down to leadership and intelligent, competent governance and the UK has come up a long way short on both counts.

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CM,  I'm  not sure but I suspect that Johnson has never been given the benefit of the doubt by you!

I do think it would be interesting to know why SE Asia has done well.  I suspect  that compliant populations are factors but I also think there is more to it. As far as I know Japan, S Korea and China did not follow the same model but all have coped well.

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9 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

CM,  I'm  not sure but I suspect that Johnson has never been given the benefit of the doubt by you!

I do think it would be interesting to know why SE Asia has done well.  I suspect  that compliant populations are factors but I also think there is more to it. As far as I know Japan, S Korea and China did not follow the same model but all have coped well.

You are quite right that I personally have never given Johnson the benefit of the doubt, but believe it or not I was prepared for the possibility that with a national crisis looming he might prove me wrong. 🙂

But in practice I would say it was obvious very early on, by which I mean February and certainly early March, that Johnson wasn't going to provide the leadership or competence necessary to deliver an effective response. Nevertheless I still think it is true to say that a large majority of the population did give him the benefit of the doubt at the start and that an even larger majority of the population (including me) did adhere pretty strictly to the first lockdown restrictions.

The fact that there is now very significant resistance, in fact some outright defiance, to the recent lockdown measures is entirely Johnson's responsibility. With his incompetence, lack of leadership and general untrustworthiness he has very consistently over-promised and under-delivered.

So I think this notion that the SE Asian countries have been far more successful in dealing with the virus than us simply because their citizens are more compliant and adhered more strictly to what they were asked\told to do is just plain wrong, or at best is a minor but far from the main factor in their success.

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38 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

CM,  I'm  not sure but I suspect that Johnson has never been given the benefit of the doubt by you!

I do think it would be interesting to know why SE Asia has done well.  I suspect  that compliant populations are factors but I also think there is more to it. As far as I know Japan, S Korea and China did not follow the same model but all have coped well.

They stuck to the rules.  We don't.  

Edited by paul moy
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1 hour ago, paul moy said:

They stuck to the rules.  We don't.  

Possibly a big part but the truth is that whilst we know that SE Asia as a whole has done very well we dont know the reasons.  The only people who believe they know for sure are a prisoner of their own bias.

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7 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Possibly a big part but the truth is that whilst we know that SE Asia as a whole has done very well we dont know the reasons.  The only people who believe they know for sure are a prisoner of their own bias.

A few simple reasons. They've had this sort of thing before so took it seriously from the beginning. They were/are prepared. They do lockdowns properly with little to no caveats. They test and trace well.

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

A few simple reasons. They've had this sort of thing before so took it seriously from the beginning. They were/are prepared. They do lockdowns properly with little to no caveats. They test and trace well.

Also, when the people responsible for making and policing the rules break them they resign/get sacked.

 

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10 hours ago, Bagster said:

God you lot are as thick as mince.

I'm embarrassed for you

It is hard not to conclude that some people are just impervious to logic even when the facts are clearly laid out for them.

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Maybe you lads could get angry about the right things for once.

 

Edited by Herman
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3 hours ago, Herman said:

A few simple reasons. They've had this sort of thing before so took it seriously from the beginning. They were/are prepared. They do lockdowns properly with little to no caveats. They test and trace well.

I think it fair to say that they took it seriously. And the other bits are well worth exploring.

And the controversial hypotheses...

 Some covid disease/death went unrecorded;  they have wider spread immunity through previous similar infection;  their climate is not as hospitable  to covid19 as European / S American;  genetics, diet etc assist.

All possibilities.

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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12 hours ago, Bagster said:

God you lot are as thick as mince.

I'm embarrassed for you

You’re talking to the sound asleep woke brigade. They are probably convinced that world governments will just willingly hand these powers of control back once this is over. That’s if it ever is, for as long as we continue to test for the virus then with the false positives rate, the virus can never go away...

Hard to think anything other than the virus has been hijacked for other reasons after watching this 

Edited by Teemu’s right foot

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22 minutes ago, Herman said:

Maybe you lads could get angry about the right things for once.

 

This is the sort if thing that needs to be taken seriously.   Problem is our politics are so partisan and the drivers of this so associated with brexit etc that they can be dismissed as " campaigning lawyers" or conspiracy theorists. What it needs is a brexiteer or other "rwnj" to take up this angle

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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24 minutes ago, Herman said:

Maybe you lads could get angry about the right things for once.

 

So someone who has experience in developing vaccines to market gets appointed head of vaccine rollout 

You need to get your head examined, Heeman 

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Ever thought all the Ivor Cummings stuff smacks of the Climate Change debate.

The vast consensus of scientists all generally agree but with various nuances and are open minded to serious questioning but a small bunch of self-publicists with an agenda pick up on any old theory (they'll be a new one along tomorrow) and try to undermine the consensus because for any number of differing reasons they don't like the current consensus need for a lock down.

We've had - its seasonal, it's no worse than flu, it's confused with flu, it's already going away in the UK because we're British,  we all have herd immunity already, we've all had it already,  it only kills those already past it, its a Chinese plot, for balance its an American plot, its genetic, the great reset. Feel free to add any more you can think of.

Quite Trumpian in it's absurdity.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ever thought all the Ivor Cummings stuff smacks of the Climate Change debate.

The vast consensus of scientists all generally agree but with various nuances and are open minded to serious questioning but a small bunch of self-publicists with an agenda pick up on any old theory (they'll be a new one along tomorrow) and try to undermine the consensus because for any number of differing reasons they don't like the current consensus need for a lock down.

We've had - its seasonal, it's no worse than flu, it's confused with flu, it's already going away in the UK because we're British,  we all have herd immunity already, we've all had it already,  it only kills those already past it, its a Chinese plot, for balance its an American plot, its genetic, the great reset. Feel free to add any more you can think of.

Quite Trumpian in it's absurdity.

👍👍👍

This, precisely this.

Climate change. All the climate scientists versus Nigel Lawson and the Telegraph.

Brexit. All the worlds economists versus Patrick Minford and the Telegraph.

Covid. All the worlds medical experts versus Ivor Cummins and the Telegraph.

 

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You know  a new low has been reached when the data stops being discussed because it can no longer support the projections that were made and the personal attacks become louder as the facts kick away the pillars of their argument.

The virus is doubling every seven days, ooh! well perhaps every 14 then, no? anyone for 21?

      errrrr well actually no it isn't so we won't talk about that anymore and they might forget it was ever mentioned.😉

 

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Meanwhile in the hospitals, where they don't have the luxury to indulge in conspiracy theories and pseudo-scientific speculation, they have to deal with actual infected bodies turning up at their doors.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics/judges-want-more-evidence-from-trump-campaign-as-election-cases-get-tossed/ar-BB1aMOHD?ocid=msedgdhp

I wonder if Guptra, Cummings et al will turn up at their local Covid ward to help out.

 

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Probably best to stick to your favourite thread than clutter this one with off topic stuff.

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Simple facts Ricardo. Infections are increasing. Deaths are increasing. Johnson locked down too late. We're now in lockdown.

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1 minute ago, Herman said:

Simple facts Ricardo. Infections are increasing. Deaths are increasing. Johnson locked down too late. We're now in lockdown.

Infections are static or declining. Deaths due to respitory ailments unfortunately will increase as they always do at this time of year. Covid will take its toll, mostly of the old and infirm sadly but on balance lockdown won't  alter  those facts and may even enhance them.

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44 minutes ago, Herman said:

Simple facts Ricardo. Infections are increasing. Deaths are increasing. Johnson locked down too late. We're now in lockdown.

Im not sure infections are rising overall, or rather the ONS doesn’t think they are:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/6november2020

There appears to be some regional variation.  With rates, unsurprisingly, highest in regions in the lowest tiers and where incidents in the first wave were lowest.

I am a mild supporter  of the second lockdown and can see the sense of a short pause ending with the economically  vital Christmas period and the start of vaccination.  I am not sure what locking down earlier would have achieved unless it was going to be for longer and ending at the same time

other snippets:

The ONS does not support the idea that schools going back is driving this:

"Since the start of the school year there has been no evidence of difference in the positivity rate between primary and secondary school teachers and their households, other key workers and their households, and other professions and their households."

there is no ONS data on the question of whether or not the infections is moving from university students to the vulnerable but it can be said that lecturers are not more affected than those in other professions.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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1 hour ago, horsefly said:

Meanwhile in the hospitals, where they don't have the luxury to indulge in conspiracy theories and pseudo-scientific speculation, they have to deal with actual infected bodies turning up at their doors.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics/judges-want-more-evidence-from-trump-campaign-as-election-cases-get-tossed/ar-BB1aMOHD?ocid=msedgdhp

I wonder if Guptra, Cummings et al will turn up at their local Covid ward to help out.

 

Isn’t that exactly what they have signed up to do? Treat the sick and dying? I don’t want to go to war so I won’t sign up for the army....

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344k  tests 

24957  - 413          7days ago  21915    14 days ago  23012

 

Inpatients  12949 down 50 on yesterday 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy          37089 - 428

France     60486 - 828 worst I've seen for France

Spain       22516 - 347

Germany  22246 - 174

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7 hours ago, ricardo said:

You know  a new low has been reached when the data stops being discussed because it can no longer support the projections that were made and the personal attacks become louder as the facts kick away the pillars of their argument.

The virus is doubling every seven days, ooh! well perhaps every 14 then, no? anyone for 21?

      errrrr well actually no it isn't so we won't talk about that anymore and they might forget it was ever mentioned.😉

 

Have you noticed how the 250,000 deaths that kicked off this paranoia is never mentioned any more?

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6 hours ago, Herman said:

Simple facts Ricardo. Infections are increasing. Deaths are increasing. Johnson locked down too late. We're now in lockdown.

Deaths from missed cancer screening are increasing. Deaths from cardiac arrests are increasing. Deaths from suicides are increasing. But big pharma will make billions from the vaccine.

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6 hours ago, horsefly said:

Meanwhile in the hospitals, where they don't have the luxury to indulge in conspiracy theories and pseudo-scientific speculation, they have to deal with actual infected bodies turning up at their doors.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics/judges-want-more-evidence-from-trump-campaign-as-election-cases-get-tossed/ar-BB1aMOHD?ocid=msedgdhp

I wonder if Guptra, Cummings et al will turn up at their local Covid ward to help out.

 

Why would they turn up at the covid wards where no one is dying? Had you bothered to watch Bagsters latest video you will see that those deaths labelled as covid are all occurring at home. If people were seriously ill with covid they would now be in hospital and not at home. The home deaths are being either mislabelled or those for whom any kind of treatment is beyond usefulness due to age of the patient.

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