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I am going to U turn.

I can be quoted on here as saying there won’t be another National Lockdown. I have now changed my opinion, however schools ect will be left open. Reading the experts I follow ( Oxford especially ) who’s advise is published after Boris ignored it and has always been pretty much spot on 2 months later. They now suggest this is far worse than their modeling suggested, but still insist it started on the 1st July when the governments message changed. They now say 2 weeks would no longer slow the virus.

I know some of you like me don’t live in Norfolk. I am seeing this with my own eyes, it’s everywhere. In Norfolk you have done so well, but believe me you do not want this taking hold where it isn’t at the moment.

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Appears to have already peaked in this latest lockdown area. I wonder if it will continue.

image.png.32ff3ecb89a21052044f9a2bbd77c726.png

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12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Much more encouraging news on longer term immunity.

 

 

It’s very good news for the vaccine as AstraZeneca have released details that are very hopeful that this is the case.

As yet this is such a new disease nobody knows. Zoe is reporting ( see their tweet a couple of pages back ) that there are increasing numbers of re-infection. Brazil are reporting São Paulo which thinks 60 % had it is now on the rise. It’s very conflicting at the moment, so let’s hope this is proven to be the case.

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3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

It’s very good news for the vaccine as AstraZeneca have released details that are very hopeful that this is the case.

As yet this is such a new disease nobody knows. Zoe is reporting ( see their tweet a couple of pages back ) that there are increasing numbers of re-infection. Brazil are reporting São Paulo which thinks 60 % had it is now on the rise. It’s very conflicting at the moment, so let’s hope this is proven to be the case.

The encouraging news is that the vaccines have shown a good memory T cell response as well as antibodies. This promises the likelihood of much longer term immunity.

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12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Appears to have already peaked in this latest lockdown area. I wonder if it will continue.

image.png.32ff3ecb89a21052044f9a2bbd77c726.png

I look at this fella's postings Ricardo. He is someone very often who states a fact and then he says 'but' and then says something positive. Check his posts. It becomes a bit unnerving. It's as if he posts but has to find something. Just an observation really. Maybe something you've noticed too.

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3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The encouraging news is that the vaccines have shown a good memory T cell response as well as antibodies. This promises the likelihood of much longer term immunity.

That was a decent video and made sense. Hopefully T cells have a very long memory and this will support HI.

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17 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Appears to have already peaked in this latest lockdown area. I wonder if it will continue.

image.png.32ff3ecb89a21052044f9a2bbd77c726.png

 

It's the demographic breakdown that's important - and true random sampling.

The fast initial surge was likely just students (and locked down / controlled) - but now spreading further into other more vulnerable age groups as reflected in hospital admissions.

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8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Appears to have already peaked in this latest lockdown area. I wonder if it will continue.

image.png.32ff3ecb89a21052044f9a2bbd77c726.png

This is of course very good news and I know little about Notts. I can comment however where I live and we are approaching tier 3 in the Midlands, which also sees a drop in the overall number, however that drop in numbers is a transfer of power from the virus from younger people into the older generations. Living here you can see with your eyes how it takes hold it is like a tsunami, some areas are like war zones. 
Living here I really do say you have kept it out of Norfolk if that means following us here in the North to keep it that way do it. I know it will seem you are being punished when you haven’t got it, but I would say those that followed the rules are also being punished.

I don’t know as well if you other up North guys have noticed this but there is one pattern you see with your eyes that I would love to see on a graph and that is those that appear to be in very small groups maybe 6 people from 3 different houses seem sort of largely unaffected, whereas the people that mix also then seem to have large families, ect. This has seemed to result in those first groups having no where near the same changes, yet constantly break the rules within that small group.

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6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

It's the demographic breakdown that's important - and true random sampling.

The fast initial surge was likely just students (and locked down / controlled) - but now spreading further into other more vulnerable age groups as reflected in hospital admissions.

That’s how I understand it in Staffs and Walsall which I follow obviously as I live here. You point score for who has it and if it is confined to small pockets. The students / workplace was not a problem, but the house to house transmission thereafter was. Although a student is likely to give it to lots of others, in the main most of those will be of the same profile. Once given to a 60 year old he or she is more likely to give it to far less people but those it is passed onto are just as likely to be older ie their parents or friends, the friends likely to be of a similar profile.

Dont want to get over political but again the scientists recommended Students to be online, but the government decided it would be safe. I can only assume they really believed the students would not go out and follow all the rules. This advice is clearly on the Oxford website.

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22 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I look at this fella's postings Ricardo. He is someone very often who states a fact and then he says 'but' and then says something positive. Check his posts. It becomes a bit unnerving. It's as if he posts but has to find something. Just an observation really. Maybe something you've noticed too.

At least more reliable than Ex Military Doctor Alice Jones who we had postings from last night lol. At least you can discuss these posts seriously.

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12 minutes ago, Well b back said:

This is of course very good news and I know little about Notts. I can comment however where I live and we are approaching tier 3 in the Midlands, which also sees a drop in the overall number, however that drop in numbers is a transfer of power from the virus from younger people into the older generations. Living here you can see with your eyes how it takes hold it is like a tsunami, some areas are like war zones. 
Living here I really do say you have kept it out of Norfolk if that means following us here in the North to keep it that way do it. I know it will seem you are being punished when you haven’t got it, but I would say those that followed the rules are also being punished.

I don’t know as well if you other up North guys have noticed this but there is one pattern you see with your eyes that I would love to see on a graph and that is those that appear to be in very small groups maybe 6 people from 3 different houses seem sort of largely unaffected, whereas the people that mix also then seem to have large families, ect. This has seemed to result in those first groups having no where near the same changes, yet constantly break the rules within that small group.

I follow Zoe. The numbers increase every day (now over 10000). And I read the local press which is very close to the ground. Hospital numbers higher than the first peak (deaths rising but lower than before at the moment and NHS under pressure but not overwhelmed).

Any other graphs/stats on any matter I read with interest. I sense there is validity in some points made on all sides of the debate. The truth will emerge as and when the virus overwhelms or decreases / improves. Claiming any one point of view is the correct one (data driven or not) is for others. Can only sense what is happening. Johnson though must be doing a Francis Drake impersonation....one more game of bowls....as the Spanish Armada came into sight. That worked out okay. Less convinced this time after all we experienced by government actions in Spring.

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2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

This is for discussion don’t shoot me for posting. Imperial College now have it at 96,000 a day and doubling every 9 days ( no idea how to work the R out ).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962

Reported in some depth in the Mail this morning Wbb.

Edited by sonyc

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Morning all

I don’t think it’s in that context I think if you listen to Macron yesterday he said ‘ even taking the worst modelling scenario that was miles out ‘. That report yesterday if true, and the Goverment have not denied states they are looking at something that is far worse than the least promising modelling.

Yes “ worse than the most pessimistic projections”........I must confess I find that statement a little hard to believe, but that’s only opinion.

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Reported in some depth in the Mail this morning Wbb.

In April they were obviously estimates as well but weren’t they 100,000 at its worse ?

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yes “ worse than the most pessimistic projections”........I must confess I find that statement a little hard to believe, but that’s only opinion.

I am not so sure, Oxford didn’t predict this ( if Imperial and Zoe are correct ) until January. It’s not even reached you guys yet, it’s in 1/3 of the country, but that’s me thinking out loud.

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16 hours ago, Van wink said:

don’t know about Starmer, he seems to blow hot and cold, I was initially impressed but not so sure now, but certainly wouldn’t blame his mum for the name she gave him.

Well, we should find out a lot more about him. Under huge pressure to tackle Corbyn and others in today's report. If he doesn't act strongly, he will be seen as weak and ineffective.

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12 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Absolutely not - we have had extremely successful contract tracing systems in our public health authorities for many years. 

 

I don't disagree. We have agreed so much in the past on the importance of public health and how it us overlooked in favour of medicine despite its undeniable supreme tole on infection control over the centuries.

However, to say that local authorities have extremely successful contact tracing  systems in place for this context is stretching it.  Local authorities do great work on some pathogens (and a key role on food poisoning etc) and NHS sti contact tracing is a mature system but are you really saying that any local authority had an airborne pandemic solution kit ready to take off the shelf if only they were asked?

I'll go back to my example (which is not particularly  extreme) a man walks Across the London south bank, boards a tube at Waterloo, goes to kings cross and walks to the platform for the Newcastle train he then walks to the office via Gregg's.   You think that even with the absolutely best will in the world the London Borough of Southwark are going to trace every possible contact and talk them into a week's isolation?.

I'm not saying contact tracing doesn't have a role, of course it does and the more rural one gets the bigger the role but to say 'if only track and trace was sorted we could carry on as normal' is preposterous. Contact tracing is a tool, a good tool, but unless we go for the full government surveillance its role (even at its practical best) is far more limited than people care to imagine.

 

 

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Appears to have already peaked in this latest lockdown area. I wonder if it will continue.

image.png.32ff3ecb89a21052044f9a2bbd77c726.png

It's peaking in the young person demographic, which will now start to see a decline in numbers, but moving into the general population. By the end of November it will have passed through the general population peaking at the end of the month and then declining. 

Sadly, it will make its way through to the Sheilders by December when we'll see some bad fatality numbers but these should peak by the end of the year. 

So combining the hopeful arrival of a vaccine with hanging tight for the next two months, I think we will have this virus beat in the New Year

Edited by Rock The Boat

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Again don’t shoot the poster, but here is something worth discussing that may explain why Europe ( including us ) seem to have acted not quickly enough in what seems a decisive week for the virus.

I just looked at that press conference again from last week. As you will remember we had the usual graphs. The one on daily numbers is the one I want to focus on. They explained that although the numbers could be as low as 30,000 and as high as 73,000, 38,000 was the number where they had settled, they then said they did not believe from the figures it was in the upper age groups in big numbers but was on the rise. They said the numbers would double every 2 weeks. Then the bit where I think it has gone pear shaped, they said if we do nothing over the next few weeks we will see it move into the upper age groups and steadily increase to the 1st waves peak. It seems for some reason this week the virus has decided to move away from the modeling and have a week that nobody had foreseen, if indeed ZOE and Imperial are proved correct.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

At least more reliable than Ex Military Doctor Alice Jones who we had postings from last night lol. At least you can discuss these posts seriously.

There are some 'reviewers' in the media who will colour the results, stats or whatever to favour their viewpoint, readership or frankly just to spin some 'good news'.

Scientists are also susceptible to this - but the the difference is that true scientists accept the facts in good faith - they can then modify their theories also in good faith to take account of new data. There is no discredit in a theory that eventually fails. That's how science works.

I prefer unvarnished facts good or bad. Arguing what they mean is where they get coloured. 

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35 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well, we should find out a lot more about him. Under huge pressure to tackle Corbyn and others in today's report. If he doesn't act strongly, he will be seen as weak and ineffective.

Denial of the problem was a huge part of the problem, many of us were saying that but I won’t go over old ground on here on a debate that got very nasty, particularly with Bill. 
This is a massive test as you say, I hope he does the right thing. Get the nutters out of the party and see how successful they are when they can no longer hide under a stone.Now is the time and opportunity.

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2 hours ago, sonyc said:

I look at this fella's postings Ricardo. He is someone very often who states a fact and then he says 'but' and then says something positive. Check his posts. It becomes a bit unnerving. It's as if he posts but has to find something. Just an observation really. Maybe something you've noticed too.

Professor  of Economics at Nottingham University. Obviously knows a bit about stats. He states clearly that his views are his own.

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Well, we should find out a lot more about him. Under huge pressure to tackle Corbyn and others in today's report. If he doesn't act strongly, he will be seen as weak and ineffective.

Will do what politicians always do with awkward info and kick it into the long grass.

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Changes to the app announced. I do hope I have read this wrong. Lots of people were told to quarantine, Hancock thought people were being wrongly put in to quarantine so put the score higher to avoid this. After looking back it has now been moved back lower than it was before Hancock meddled now actually putting those in quarantine that are at risk of having contracted the virus.

Please tell me I have read it wrong. I had a lot of Time for him, but if I have read this correctly ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54733534

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1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Will do what politicians always do with awkward info and kick it into the long grass.

I don't think so.

He will act but fairly. 

3 to 4 years to next election - the wounds will heal but we know where the spotlight will fall next by comparison. Those 'letter boxes'. Politically prompt action could very likely have a silver lining.  

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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Will do what politicians always do with awkward info and kick it into the long grass.

Will be poor if so. He stated his actions should speak for him, not his words. No action will be missing the whole nub of the issue.

As for the professor chap, yes I know. I will watch if his 7 day average slows. Worrying signs though at the moment but depends if they translate into something very concerning or not.

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6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Will be poor if so. He stated his actions should speak for him, not his words. No action will be missing the whole nub of the issue.

As for the professor chap, yes I know. I will watch if his 7 day average slows. Worrying signs though at the moment but depends if they translate into something very concerning or not.

Corbyn suspended !!!!

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8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Will be poor if so. He stated his actions should speak for him, not his words. No action will be missing the whole nub of the issue.

As for the professor chap, yes I know. I will watch if his 7 day average slows. Worrying signs though at the moment but depends if they translate into something very concerning or not.

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