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1 minute ago, horsefly said:

You're not "missing something", the second wave is expected to last considerably longer (oct onwards) so even though they expect the number of daily death to be fewer than the peaks of last spring, there will be many more days of them.

Thanks hf.

I do hope it’s as simple as that.

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4 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

European governments must have found the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow... 

You wanted the children looked after, all the lockdowns ( or at least this is what it seems ) are keeping schools open.

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4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

You wanted the children looked after, all the lockdowns ( or at least this is what it seems ) are keeping schools open.

Let’s hope so as they will need all the education they can get to be able to pay this colossal debt off for the rest of their lives

Edited by Teemu’s right foot

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Germany is to give businesses 75% of their earnings as at November 2019

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Just now, Teemu’s right foot said:

Let’s hope so as they will need all the education that can get to be able to pay this colossal debt off for the next millennium 

But the hospitals need to be able to stay open and treat not just the Covid, but as we have agreed the cancers, hearts ect ect, they can only do that with staff. Some of Germany’s problems now I guess are they are taking in Belgium’s sick as Belgium is at breaking point. 
 “We’ve been through it once before, and it wasn’t very nice, but there was an end to it,” said Dr. Alison Pittard, the dean of the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine. “Whereas now, this is going to go on for much longer. We did not and do not have enough staff.”

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9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Germany is to give businesses 75% of their earnings as at November 2019

The Dow has gone through the floor nearly 1000 points down.

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32 minutes ago, Well b back said:

The Dow has gone through the floor nearly 1000 points down.

Perhaps there is a connection with the White House chief of staff admitting they were not actually trying to control the virus...🤓

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Without wanting to get into a discussion about how Sweden have handled this as I’m sure it’s probably been done to death in many of the previous pages, It is quite surprising that they are only averaging 2 deaths a day with restrictions in place that haven’t gone anywhere near the lengths of other countries. Appreciate that Sweden has a population of London and density of population in countries such as ours helps the virus spread. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Without wanting to get into a discussion about how Sweden have handled this as I’m sure it’s probably been done to death in many of the previous pages, It is quite surprising that they are only averaging 2 deaths a day with restrictions in place that haven’t gone anywhere near the lengths of other countries. Appreciate that Sweden has a population of London and density of population in countries such as ours helps the virus spread. 
 

 

Look at your own picture clearly and point out the old and vulnerable. They are not allowed to leave their homes. Then look at their real figures.

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1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Look at your own picture clearly and point out the old and vulnerable. They are not allowed to leave their homes. Then look at their real figures.

Many people here think that we should have properly supported the old and vulnerable with financial support and shielded them whilst everyone else kept the economy going. I don’t know if it’s a feasible option, the overwhelming majority of deaths have been elderly so maybe it would have protected them more, but the  government say it isn’t and we’ve spent billions of pounds paying very healthy people to sit at home. I’d say criticism of how Sweden have handled it from our country is a case of people in glass houses myself. 

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12 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Without wanting to get into a discussion about how Sweden have handled this as I’m sure it’s probably been done to death in many of the previous pages, It is quite surprising that they are only averaging 2 deaths a day with restrictions in place that haven’t gone anywhere near the lengths of other countries. Appreciate that Sweden has a population of London and density of population in countries such as ours helps the virus spread. 
 

 

From a BMJ report which of course like everything could be wrong but a would choose to believe above Facebook or twitter.

We are extremely concerned that the Swedish model may be given some credence,” he said. “We believe it is ineffective. Sweden has had an enormous amount of deaths per head of population, 5880 deaths representing 581 deaths per million population. Compared with its neighbours it has been unsuccessful in preventing deaths—Finland, for example, has had 343 deaths, which equals 62 deaths per million population.”

Scally said the report also sought to tackle the “myths” that Sweden had not imposed any restrictions to curb the spread of covid-19.

The report highlighted that on 17 March, Sweden moved to online learning only for all children 16 and over and university students, and did not return to face-to-face teaching until the middle of June. Schools for children under 16 stayed open, but have had small class sizes, social distancing, and hygiene measures put in place.

It also noted that Sweden has had other restrictions such as a ban on travel from outside the European Union (in place until November 2020), a ban on visiting retirement homes until October 2020, and a continuing ban on gatherings of more than 50 people.

The report said that in September Denmark has seen a surge in covid-19 cases and Norway saw a sharp increase that has since levelled off. Sweden’s cases appeared relatively flat in early September, which has been taken by some as proof that Sweden’s strategy is working. But it points out that Sweden’s cases are now rising again, and both Finland’s and Norway’s cases per population remain lower than Sweden’s. Nordic countries are currently functioning under similar levels of restrictions, it added.

The report also draws attention to the economic comparisons, noting that the latest data from the European Commission shows that Sweden’s likely gross domestic product this year and next is similar to that of Denmark, Finland, and Norway.

“We see no merit in Sweden being held up as an example,” Scally said.

Based on the available data, the briefing paper says, “There is little to suggest that Sweden’s strategy is better than its Nordic neighbours (particularly Norway and Finland) and a lot to suggest that it is worse, with a much larger burden of disease over spring and summer.

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On 27/10/2020 at 21:10, Bagster said:

That is a fair point purple, but this and most pandemics are focused on the cities.

Stockholm is where it hit the hardest in Sweden.

Besides the French have all conformed, all masked up, no exceptions 130€ fine and they are being strict.

No kidding, nothing, I am shocked at how compliant they are.

When I go running I see people with masks on in the car and I live in the country.

Everyone seems petrified!!

The thing is , why?

It's clearly killing the old and very sick

Death rate overall is .23% which is equivalent to a bad flu

Death rate for the under 70's  is 0.05 which is less than seasonal flu.

We are locking down for this madness...........WHY?

I am afraid poor old Bagster may tonight be on the verge of exploding...

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“ Based on the available data, the briefing paper says, “There is little to suggest that Sweden’s strategy is better than its Nordic neighbours (particularly Norway and Finland) and a lot to suggest that it is worse, with a much larger burden of disease over spring and summer.“


But will they have a much less of the disease now over the winter months? Have they got the majority of the suffering out of the way over the summer. Until this winter and so called second wave is over we can’t judge their overall strategy. 

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1 minute ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

“ Based on the available data, the briefing paper says, “There is little to suggest that Sweden’s strategy is better than its Nordic neighbours (particularly Norway and Finland) and a lot to suggest that it is worse, with a much larger burden of disease over spring and summer.“


But will they have a much less of the disease now over the winter months? Have they got the majority of the suffering out of the way over the summer. Until this winter and so called second wave is over we can’t judge their overall strategy. 

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Sweden is a fascinating example and I've read a huge amount on what they have done. 

As I think is acknowledged above, they have a population a fraction the size of ours in a country many times the size of ours. Their social demographic is massively different. They have a lot of single occupancy housing. Finally, unlike here, they have a population who has voluntarily adhered to advice, rather than rebelled against instruction. 

Look behind the stats and you see a high death rate, much higher than those of their neighbours who have taken a more stringent approach. They have often been accused of sacrificing their elderly. 

Japan are another interesting example. They conducted a campaign similar to Sweden in so far as they asked rather than mandated a response. They are now suffering a resurgence of the virus much like everyone else. But their society wore masks for fashion even prior to the virus are believed to have greatly benefitted from it. Hence why their death rate is not that bad, despite their population being rather critical of their government for not taking a firmer view. 

I suspect only when a vaccine has been created and distributed, will we have the chance to look back on this and decide X was effective, Y was not.

Edited by Terminally Yellow
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With the greatest of respect you have just wiped the report of facts and kept the possibility.

I have just seen that woman’s twitter account omg the doctor was when she was a military doctor and a couple of her tweets include

I'm very glad to see President Trump is gaining in the polls. He will win and send Sleepy Joe Biden into a coma!

If you need a food bank to feed your child, you have failed as a parent.

 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Well b back said:

With the greatest of respect you have just wiped the report of facts and kept the possibility.

I have just seen that woman’s twitter account omg the doctor was when she was a military doctor and a couple of her tweets include

I'm very glad to see President Trump is gaining in the polls. He will win and send Sleepy Joe Biden into a coma!

If you need a food bank to feed your child, you have failed as a parent.

 

 

 

 

 

Everything we are dealing with from here on is possibilities is it not? I’m reading posts on here saying this second wave will be worse than the first. That isn’t fact, it’s currently opinions and possibility. So it’s possible that had we have had a larger proportion of our younger and healthy population infected over the summer months, then the possibility of an atrocious winter may not have happened 

Edited by Teemu’s right foot

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3 minutes ago, Terminally Yellow said:

Sweden is a fascinating example and I've read a huge amount on what they have done. 

As I think is acknowledged above, they have a population a fraction the size of ours in a country many times the size of ours. Their social demographic is massively different. They have a lot of single occupancy housing. Finally, unlike here, they have a population who has voluntarily adhered to advice, rather than rebelled against instruction. 

Look behind the stats and you see a high death rate, much higher than those of their neighbours who have taken a more stringent approach. They have often been accused of sacrificing their elderly. 

Japan are another interesting example. They conducted a campaign similar to Sweden in so far as they asked rather than mandated a response. They are now suffering a resurgence of the virus much like everyone else. But their society wore masks for fashion even prior to the virus are believed to have greatly benefitted from it. Hence why their death rate is not that bad, despite their population being rather critical of their government for not taking a firmer view. 

I suspect only when a vaccine has been created and distributed, will we have the chance to look back on this and decide X was effective, Y was not.

Thanks for the insight YF

Thats interesting re the masks as well, am I correct in saying the reports showing masks are ineffective should be more that they are ineffective if you wear them wrong or don’t wash them, rather than they are ineffective if worn properly ?

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1 minute ago, Terminally Yellow said:

Sweden is a fascinating example and I've read a huge amount on what they have done. 

As I think is acknowledged above, they have a population a fraction the size of ours in a country many times the size of ours. Their social demographic is massively different. They have a lot of single occupancy housing. Finally, unlike here, they have a population who has voluntarily adhered to advice, rather than rebelled against instruction. 

Japan are another interesting example. They conducted a campaign similar to Sweden in so far as they asked rather than mandated a response. They are now suffering a resurgence of the virus much like everyone else. But their society wore masks for fashion even prior to the virus are believed to have greatly benefitted from it. Hence why their death rate is not that bad, despite their population being rather critical of their government for not taking a firmer view. 

I suspect only when a vaccine has been created and distributed, will we have the chance to look back on this and decide X was effective, Y was not.

Indeed. I think with Sweden two other factors, not so sgnificant but which have played a part, are that a higher proportion of people than in the UK already worked from home, and that there is quite a high proportion of holiday second-home ownership, so families could self-isolate in the countryside (even if they didn't need an urgent an eye test...) or on the islands of the Stockholm archipelago.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

With the greatest of respect you have just wiped the report of facts and kept the possibility.

I have just seen that woman’s twitter account omg the doctor was when she was a military doctor and a couple of her tweets include

I'm very glad to see President Trump is gaining in the polls. He will win and send Sleepy Joe Biden into a coma!

If you need a food bank to feed your child, you have failed as a parent.

 

 

 

 

 

I think after a few years of practice I can spot a fake twitter account and hers looks dodgy as ****. It has all the hallmarks of a bot account.

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7 minutes ago, Herman said:

I think after a few years of practice I can spot a fake twitter account and hers looks dodgy as ****. It has all the hallmarks of a bot account.

Brazil let rip, I was going to ask if she could do a report on how that went tomorrow. I hope she doesn’t have elderly parents, let it rip because I want to spend Christmas with my family. 
I really enjoy the discussions and the debate on here and how we all move our thoughts, but I just can’t take it serious when we are asked to believe this above the scientists.

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Professor Robert West (University College London) now on Newsnight. Says no choice but to lockdown as a whole nation as there is no other way to get some control (not to solve it) or hospitals will struggle. Says it's inevitable what will happen. Has advised government but states decisions are political. Very serious bloke and no inkling of over statement. Anyone else seen this?

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Just now, sonyc said:

Professor Robert West (University College London) now on Newsnight. Says no choice but to lockdown as a whole nation as there is no other way to get some control (not to solve it) or hospitals will struggle. Says it's inevitable what will happen. Has advised government but states decisions are political. Very serious bloke and no inkling of over statement. Anyone else seen this?

I’m watching Peston.

Even the government side are saying communication disaster. 

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6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Professor Robert West (University College London) now on Newsnight. Says no choice but to lockdown as a whole nation as there is no other way to get some control (not to solve it) or hospitals will struggle. Says it's inevitable what will happen. Has advised government but states decisions are political. Very serious bloke and no inkling of over statement. Anyone else seen this?

Has Ex Military Doctor Alice Jones KBF been on yet to tell us all how to sort this pandemic out ?

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8 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I am on here as a massive advocate of contact tracing.  I thought reliance on the pre-existing system to be the number one ir two cause of our problems.

I am a lot more sceptical now though. The numbers are too big,  its too widely spread and we are too mobile for me to think this makes a big contribution to suppression anymore.  

A guy walks across the south bank to get on a tube at Waterloo, goes to kings Cross and gets the inter city to Newcastle where he walks to the office via Gregg's.   We are not tracking all of that.  Even North Korean levels of surveillance couldn't track that. Maybe we could get a quite a few but the tide is inevitable without a vaccine.

 

 

Absolutely not - we have had extremely successful contract tracing systems in our public health authorities for many years. Right at the start of getting test, track and trace set up the government were advised by local Directors of Public Health & other public health experts that the tracing should be done locally - the government totally disregarded this advice.

I know that in our authority the Director of Public Health made a fully costed offer to the government to ramp up the existing capacity to cope with the expected additional demands of Covid, as I believe did many other local Directors. The Government declined and provided zero resources to local tracing out of the £12 billion allocated. 

The local tracing option would not only have provided staff with local knowledge, experience and a track record of doing the job successfully but they were already equipped with functioning IT systems which were already interfaced into NHS systems.

Despite all this the government has spent billions with accountancy firms and consultants who have no knowledge or experience of this field and by any reasonable criteria they have failed miserably. We now also know that they have spent millions developing software which is incapable of interfacing with NHS systems and utterly unbeliveably revolves around a bundle of b****y Excel spreadsheets!!!!! As someone who has spent virtually all my working life in IT, I find it literally incomprehensible that in 2020 anybody, never mind extremely highly paid consultants, could be as stupid as that.

This project hasn't just suffered from a few poor decisions or the odd mistake, it has been an exercise in incompetence on an epic scale which has wasted taxpayers' money on an equally epic scale.

Now I realise that you are never going accept or acknowledge the gross incompetence of this government but some of us were pointing this out in the very early stages of this project. Unfortunately for you it has now become common knowledge and we have had months of actual operation which have highlighted just how badly the system is performing. This was inevitable - the system design is just plain wrong, the implementation shambolic, and from everything we heard the training of huge numbers of inexperienced staff was woeful.

Even many of the backbench Tory MPs now seem to be realising that they've been sold a very expensive pup, so that just leaves you and cabinet thinking that they've done a good job - actually I guess the Cabinet must really know that its been a complete shambles but they haven't got the b***s to acknowledge it either.

 

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9 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I’m watching Peston.

Even the government side are saying communication disaster. 

It's a 10 second video clip only but the gist is here

Edited by sonyc

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On a lighter note regarding Swedish attitudes, apparently a common joke there is that they are relieved that the 2 metre social-distancing rule has been relaxed as they can now return to the normal 5 metres.

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I’m sure I just heard on the radio that Macron has said that the resurgence of the virus in Europe “ has taken everyone by surprise”.....unbelievable!!

Edited by Van wink

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