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44 minutes ago, Van wink said:

 

I wouldn’t put too much reliance on that WBB, NHS professional recruitment for tier two contact tracers closed a long time ago, but we are desperately short now and buying in staff at huge cost from Serco and Sitel. 

Hi VW

It was more the point of how well the NHS seem to be organised now and to be fair I think in this day and age all stats and comments have their figures slanted to say whatever lol.

It actually destroys a lot of the arguments that whatever the number is will die of cancer, heart because of no treatment, no screening ect ect. I think like a lot of things this was the case in March / April  but not now. There will be some missed screenings of course there will as people will not turn up not the NHS is closed. Unless things change this time the NHS is really still open for the other serious illnesses.

Personally I think the NHS has done an amazing job regards this. How many times on here did we say yes but what’s your answer to posters, but the NHS themselves had the answer.

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1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

So France and Germany looking at new "lockdowns" although these are not full on lockdowns like back in March/April.

 

It seems really out of control in France, worst in Europe at the moment.  One comment quoted is that they've found a 9pm curfew hasn't made much difference because "people just meet at 6pm instead" - well, duh !

 

Germany seems to be looking at measures that go a bit further than our Tier 3 - bars/restaurants will be shut except for takeaways, but otherwise pretty similar.

 

From my experience here in Nottingham, the tier 2 restrictions have definitely had an impact, to a large degree I think it's just people taking it seriously now - back in September if you went into the City centre, it was almost like pre-Covid, whereas the last week or so, it's been much quieter with people masked up and keeping proper distances.  Cases had dropped dramatically, I think the decision to put Notts into tier 3 was largely because infections were spreading beyond the student population and hospital admissions going up.

 

 

If you go on new daily cases then France is not the worst in Europe,  once again its Belgium that  are far worse than France, closely followed by Switzerland. The past few days Belgium have been roughly avereraged 15k new cases a day for a population of 11 million, thats well above 1k new cases per million of population, Switzerland  have averaged about 8k new cases a day  for a population of 8 million. But  no doubt its still bad in France, but out of control?..how does one judge when its out of control?

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5 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

 

With the greatest respect over the last few days the NHS has shown NOW this is no longer happening. You have taken things from April and May. Please read the information over the last few days from lots of posters, the NHS is not just open but have managed to solve the problems of making them Covid secure. They even confirm no monogram appointments will be cancelled. No death is a good death, wether from Covid or something else. Like others they had no idea how to deal with this but used the summer to learn the lessons.

I think now they have done an amazing job and proved my view and your view wrong that there were no answers, but they stepped up to the plate and gave us the answers well done NHS and I think we should all stop judging them on April and May, they are after all putting their lives on the line and sacrificing their own families for the care of others.

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38 minutes ago, Well b back said:

With the greatest respect over the last few days the NHS has shown NOW this is no longer happening. You have taken things from April and May. Please read the information over the last few days from lots of posters, the NHS is not just open but have managed to solve the problems of making them Covid secure. They even confirm no monogram appointments will be cancelled. No death is a good death, wether from Covid or something else. Like others they had no idea how to deal with this but used the summer to learn the lessons.

I think now they have done an amazing job and proved my view and your view wrong that there were no answers, but they stepped up to the plate and gave us the answers well done NHS and I think we should all stop judging them on April and May, they are after all putting their lives on the line and sacrificing their own families for the care of others.

That may well be the case but I will continue to highlight the cost of the lockdown on lives effected for things other than covid. Irrespective of if it’s happening now, it did happen and many will die because of it, including many of the missing children from these stats. 

Edited by Teemu’s right foot

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Germany’s statement. If we get a Uturn I guess it will be like this. And please don’t bite my head off I didn’t say there will be one.

A broad but limited lockdown in Germany is going to take place from 2 November, reports say. An earlier draft plan, which we reported on, had the start date as two days later. 

Under the proposals, as yet unconfirmed: 

  • Schools would remain open
  • Social contacts would be limited to two households and tourism would be halted
  • Cinemas, theatres, leisure centres would be shut
  • Bars would close and restaurants would be limited to takeaways
  • Tattoo and massage parlours would shut but hairdressers would be allowed to stay open
  • Companies badly hit by the lockdown could be reimbursed with up to 75% of their November 2019 takings

Chancellor Angela Merkel and the state premiers will reconvene on 11 November to reassess the situation, under those proposed measures.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Positives by specimen date

The fine City is fairly well down the list.

North Norfolk is the place to be.

 

67kfyMy.jpeg

 

 

It may not be at the top of the list but I can assure you more and more pressure is building up on local T and T. I would advise people in Norfolk not to be complacent and take all the precautions they can.

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28 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

It was more the point of how well the NHS seem to be organised now and to be fair I think in this day and age all stats and comments have their figures slanted to say whatever lol.

It actually destroys a lot of the arguments that whatever the number is will die of cancer, heart because of no treatment, no screening ect ect. I think like a lot of things this was the case in March / April  but not now. There will be some missed screenings of course there will as people will not turn up not the NHS is closed. Unless things change this time the NHS is really still open for the other serious illnesses.

Personally I think the NHS has done an amazing job regards this. How many times on here did we say yes but what’s your answer to posters, but the NHS themselves had the answer.

The NHS is much better prepared, organised, equipped with PPE, provided with effective clinical interventions etc in every way far better prepared, and of course it should be. I still expect to see stories starting to emerge of pressures that overwhelm staff and resources, I would certainly view with scepticism any claims from Government regarding preparedness. My view is we are going to be shocked by numbers of deaths in the coming weeks and be forced into the lockdown that should have happened weeks ago.

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5 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

That may well be the case but I will continue to highlight the cost of the lockdown on lives affected for things other than covid. Irrespective of if it’s happening now, it did happen and many will die because of it, including many of the missing children from these stats. 

Any death is a bad death.

And yes if it is a child that’s more heartbreaking, but back then if they would have caught Covid that would have been serious to, they didn’t know how to protect you then and we were all to scared.

They have learnt as have the care homes. We had 2 family members die from Covid who went into a hospital without Covid and came out with it. That is highly unlikely to happen now and I think far more of us would not be as scared off from keeping to an appointment as we were in March. 
Hindsight is a wonderful thing and the most we can ask for is lessons are learnt. I really believe the NHS should be congratulated for solving these problems and this time keeping our hospitals open for all serious disease they can’t change their past and I am sure they were heartbroken at every death wether that was from Covid or anything else.

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12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The NHS is much better prepared, organised, equipped with PPE, provided with effective clinical interventions etc in every way far better prepared, and of course it should be. I still expect to see stories starting to emerge of pressures that overwhelm staff and resources, I would certainly view with scepticism any claims from Government regarding preparedness. My view is we are going to be shocked by numbers of deaths in the coming weeks and be forced into the lockdown that should have happened weeks ago.

Buy how long would we have had to lockdown to make sure that it actually has an effect if we did it weeks ago?

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1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

Buy how long would we have had to lockdown to make sure that it actually has an effect if we did it weeks ago?

I don’t know

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15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It may not be at the top of the list but I can assure you more and more pressure is building up on local T and T. I would advise people in Norfolk not to be complacent and take all the precautions they can.

Spot on VW

I live in a WS postcode and unlike when we lived in Wymondham the scenario of ‘ well do you know anyone that’s had it ‘ up here we all know people not just that have had it but have got it. Once it hits an area it’s like a tsunami. You also come to realise that a lot of people that get it would never of even known had they have not found out by accident, so you no longer know if the person that just got close to you has it or is contagious just before symptoms.

I can only beg the good people of Norfolk to keep to the rules and you may just escape it’s awful sting.

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2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Buy how long would we have had to lockdown to make sure that it actually has an effect if we did it weeks ago?

A lot less 5 weeks ago than if we have to Uturn. 
 

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18 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I still expect to see stories starting to emerge of pressures that overwhelm staff and resources, I would certainly view with scepticism any claims from Government regarding preparedness. My view is we are going to be shocked by numbers of deaths in the coming weeks and be forced into the lockdown that should have happened weeks ago.

I believe this too. Death numbers simply continue to increase. Sage and Indy Sage have indicated that numbers might be 500 per day by the end of the next 4 weeks. I think in some way the sheer numbers mean that people become less shocked and this part of the forum attests to that (it feels.) I am strongly of the view that the short fire break asked for by Starmer was the right think to do. No question that we will see increasing amounts of panic in the press. One interesting analysis though will emerge with the Welsh measures. In a way it has become like a controlled experiment in the scheme of things.For sure, the administration has been hounded in terms of attempts to restrict damage to smaller businesses. Of course, their attempts to change the 'pandemic dynamic' may fall very short. It will be interesting to see in late November.

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5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I believe this too. Death numbers simply continue to increase. Sage and Indy Sage have indicated that numbers might be 500 per day by the end of the next 4 weeks. I think in some way the sheer numbers mean that people become less shocked and this part of the forum attests to that (it feels.) I am strongly of the view that the short fire break asked for by Starmer was the right think to do. No question that we will see increasing amounts of panic in the press. One interesting analysis though will emerge with the Welsh measures. In a way it has become like a controlled experiment in the scheme of things.For sure, the administration has been hounded in terms of attempts to restrict damage to smaller businesses. Of course, their attempts to change the 'pandemic dynamic' may fall very short. It will be interesting to see in late November.

I don’t know about Starmer, he seems to blow hot and cold, I was initially impressed but not so sure now, but certainly wouldn’t blame his mum for the name she gave him.

Its about the SAGE advice for me, I am aware that experts can seek to over enjoy the limelight, they don’t find themselves in it very often. I was around when CJD linked with BSE hit the headlines and working in public health at the time, the doomsday scenario outlined  by people like Lacey never came to fruition, I saw him at a conference at the time, but he was right about the link. 
Thing is now though this is not one or two experts, this is the worldwide body of mainstream public health advisors all reciting the same message, the rogue outliers get a lot more publicity than they deserve and do us all a disservice imho.

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28 minutes ago, Well b back said:

A lot less 5 weeks ago than if we have to Uturn. 
 

 

31 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I don’t know

This is the problem.  Lockdown suppresses the spread but it will not eliminate the disease that much is crystal clear. When we unlock the virus spreads again and with exponential growth it won't take much time to make up for lost ground

If we want to lockdown to reduce risk over Christmas, or because the vaccine is in sight, or because the NHS is looking full, fine -  but locking down just because numbers are high is pointless, it is just delaying the inevitable. Which would be quite bad if we push the peak into flu season

Edited by Barbe bleu
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I keep seeing this 500 figure today as well and 25,000 in hospital, you can have your head bitten off Sonyc rather mine for mentioning it lol.

Without any conspiracy theories I have a question that I am really struggling to get my head round. The same report also says as does that this morning that Goverment are preparing for more deaths than the first wave. I don’t get it, is it because the winter goes Oct - March and they are classing more as just a time difference, or-am I missing something ?. My head tells me from what I saw the other day treatments are really helping, so this should mean a drop, and as yet this is just not ravishing the care homes where our most frail citizens live and 2 weeks ago it had still avoided us oldies. Or is it that there weren’t really 100,000 cases a day way back but there will be now or even there was 100,000 now there will be 150,000. 
Something my head is missing but not sure what it is.

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44 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

This is the problem.  Lockdown suppresses the spread but it will not eliminate the disease that much is crystal clear. When we unlock the virus spreads again and with exponential growth it won't take much time to make up for lost ground

If we want to lockdown to reduce risk over Christmas, or because the vaccine is in sight, or because the NHS is looking full, fine -  but locking down just because numbers are high is pointless, it is just delaying the inevitable.

It’s not about eliminating the disease, nobody is claiming that. If infection rates are kept under control test track and trace will work, it will have a significant impact on slowing the spread, if linked of course with other properly targeted financial support measures.All we can hope to do is keep the lid on community spread, until a saviour of some sort comes along, but we have let things get out of control again and the writing was on the wall many months ago. 

Edited by Van wink

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8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I don’t know about Starmer, he seems to blow hot and cold, I was initially impressed but not so sure now, but certainly wouldn’t blame his mum for the name she gave him.

Its about the SAGE advice for me, I am aware that experts can seek to over enjoy the limelight, they don’t find themselves in it very often. I was around when CJD linked with BSE hit the headlines and working in public health at the time, the doomsday scenario outlined  by people like Lacey never came to fruition, I saw him at a conference at the time, but he was right about the link. 
Thing is now though this is not one or two experts, this is the worldwide body of mainstream public health advisors all reciting the same message, the rogue outliers get a lot more publicity than they deserve and do us all a disservice imho.

My wife has the view that this pandemic is our 'war', if you get her meaning. Only octagenarians will remember WW2 and there will be a few on here I guess? I'm quite sure though that wartime will have had  a good deal of dissent and differing opinions!

My point on Starmer was not about his ability / aptitude but more a simple reference to the 2 week circuit break and 'in it' together measure that would have bought more time. I agree, it doesn't stop the spread but numbers might remain more 'manageable'. The worry is that things get out of hand. Probably a majority on this thread (just) feel the current measures are enough and they may be correct. And I keep hoping they are, whilst watching numbers increase. It is also unsettling here in the north of course. Perhaps there may be a different view from Norfolk based posters if they lived in a different area?  Norfolk seems one of the best places in a pandemic for sure.

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7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I keep seeing this 500 figure today as well and 25,000 in hospital, you can have your head bitten off Sonyc rather mine for mentioning it lol.

Without any conspiracy theories I have a question that I am really struggling to get my head round. The same report also says as does that this morning that Goverment are preparing for more deaths than the first wave. I don’t get it, is it because the winter goes Oct - March and they are classing more as just a time difference, or-am I missing something ?. My head tells me from what I saw the other day treatments are really helping, so this should mean a drop, and as yet this is just not ravishing the care homes where our most frail citizens live and 2 weeks ago it had still avoided us oldies. Or is it that there weren’t really 100,000 cases a day way back but there will be now or even there was 100,000 now there will be 150,000. 
Something my head is missing but not sure what it is.

I also don't understand - it doesn't compute for me. Apparently, it will be worse. But how? Thta would mean more than another 40k covid deaths right? And many more for non-covid.

Edited by sonyc

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

My wife has the view that this pandemic is our 'war', if you get her meaning. Only octagenarians will remember WW2 and there will be a few on here I guess? I'm quite sure though that wartime will have had  a good deal of dissent and differing opinions!

My point on Starmer was not about his ability / aptitude but more a simple reference to the 2 week circuit break and 'in it' together measure that would have bought more time. I agree, it doesn't stop the spread but numbers might remain more 'manageable'. The worry is that things get out of hand. Probably a majority on this thread (just) feel the current measures are enough and they may be correct. And I keep hoping they are, whilst watching numbers increase. It is also unsettling here in the north of course. Perhaps there may be a different view from Norfolk based posters if they lived in a different area?  Norfolk seems one of the best places in a pandemic for sure.

I lived in Wymondham until July, I didn’t realise how safe it was ( if safe is the right word ). We have to think of Covid all the time to keep our risks to a minimum.

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4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I also don't understand - it doesn't compute for me. Apparently, it will be worse. But how? Thta would mean more than another 40k covid deaths right? And many more for non-covid.

I know it’s doing my head in.

I understand average deaths won’t be as accurate this time, if and only if China are to be believed, as flu there is apparently at its lower ever so should follow here especially as there are even tv ads for the flu jab.

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For those that want the evidence first.....we are again a few weeks behind France.
 

France will introduce a new coronavirus lockdown from Friday, President Emmanuel Macron has announced.

In his second major televised address in two weeks, Macron said France was “overwhelmed by the pace at which the virus is spreading," which was “worse than even the most pessimistic projections”.

Average daily infections more than doubled from 17,000 to 36,000 in the two weeks since his last address.

 

The latest figures represent a record level of new cases in the country, more than seven-times the peak from the first wave earlier this year. “

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33 minutes ago, sonyc said:

My wife has the view that this pandemic is our 'war', if you get her meaning. Only octagenarians will remember WW2 and there will be a few on here I guess? I'm quite sure though that wartime will have had  a good deal of dissent and differing opinions!

My point on Starmer was not about his ability / aptitude but more a simple reference to the 2 week circuit break and 'in it' together measure that would have bought more time. I agree, it doesn't stop the spread but numbers might remain more 'manageable'. The worry is that things get out of hand. Probably a majority on this thread (just) feel the current measures are enough and they may be correct. And I keep hoping they are, whilst watching numbers increase. It is also unsettling here in the north of course. Perhaps there may be a different view from Norfolk based posters if they lived in a different area?  Norfolk seems one of the best places in a pandemic for sure.

I hope they are correct too, but I’m pretty sure they are wrong.

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Regarding trace and track.

I don't know how things are where you guys are but I can assure you that in my experience if will not matter how much money you throw at it - it will never work properly.

People simply do not log into the places they visit, they pretend to scan the QR code or they give a false name/phone number- I'm not judging or criticising, I'm just saying how it is.

There may be some benefit but it is very limited 

 

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43 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s not about eliminating the disease, nobody is claiming that. If infection rates are kept under control test track and trace will work, It will have a significant impact on slowing the spread, if linked of course with the other properly targeted financial support measures.All we can hope to do is keep the lid on community spread, until a saviour of some sort comes along, but we have let things get out of control again and the writing was on the wall many months ago. 

As I said above I cant help thinking that contact tracing is becoming Increasing symbolic and that it is fanciful to think that we could ever track more than a small proportion of contacts. Sure in a place like a remote food factory its possible but not in a city environment

Lockdown will slow the spread for the duration of the measures absolutely but then what?

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Just seen it VW.

Gosh unless I have misinterpreted it is a one month full lockdown you can’t even leave your house except for shopping and medical and even then shopping is once a week.

 

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45 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I keep seeing this 500 figure today as well and 25,000 in hospital, you can have your head bitten off Sonyc rather mine for mentioning it lol.

Without any conspiracy theories I have a question that I am really struggling to get my head round. The same report also says as does that this morning that Goverment are preparing for more deaths than the first wave. I don’t get it, is it because the winter goes Oct - March and they are classing more as just a time difference, or-am I missing something ?. My head tells me from what I saw the other day treatments are really helping, so this should mean a drop, and as yet this is just not ravishing the care homes where our most frail citizens live and 2 weeks ago it had still avoided us oldies. Or is it that there weren’t really 100,000 cases a day way back but there will be now or even there was 100,000 now there will be 150,000. 
Something my head is missing but not sure what it is.

You're not "missing something", the second wave is expected to last considerably longer (oct onwards) so even though they expect the number of daily death to be fewer than the peaks of last spring, there will be many more days of them.

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And if this report is to be believed our great leader is about to go into hiding.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has hired a well-connected former political journalist to run newly televised press briefings, allowing his messages to go unfiltered by a press corps that has become increasingly critical of Downing Street’s erratic handling of Covid-19.

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5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Just seen it VW.

Gosh unless I have misinterpreted it is a one month full lockdown you can’t even leave your house except for shopping and medical and even then shopping is once a week.

 

Their first lockdown was very stringent. This one keeps factories and some other businesses going as well as schools. Perhaps this will be something like our Tier 4?

It may be easy to predict but maybe we follow suit in 2 weeks? Cue arguments about why it wasn't done earlier, cue arguments about staff shortages just at the wrong time, cue demands for Harding to be sacked etc etc Of course there will be more people demanding an end to restrictions and mass rallies again. Great 😞

Edited by sonyc

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