Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,190]

Ireland now in 6 week lockdown.

Schools details, are the figures being changed to make them look better ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54614111

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

29 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Yep that’s spot on.

I have been thinking about ( think it was Teemu ) a post earlier where he said he shouldn’t be cast aside if he refuses the vaccine. I will keep an open mind on this as who knows how in the future this will pan out and opinions change. I can think of 2 things where things were acceptable but are now looked at in horror should you do them. When the seat belt rule came in, I for one said it’s down to me, now if somebody told me they weren’t wearing a seatbelt I would be horrified. Likewise I used to be a smoker ( gave up a good 10 years ago ) but when they brought in the rules of not smoking in indoor areas I was horrified, and really couldn’t see either what it had to do with others, let alone how I maybe killing non smokers.

We don’t know how this will pan out in the future, it maybe countries say ‘ you cannot travel to our country unless you have been vaccinated ‘ or ‘ you can’t attend a football match without being vaccinated ‘ or even ‘ carriers are like smokers were passing invisible death to others ‘. I am not saying these things will happen, but at this stage it is a real unknown and wether not having the vaccine will be socially unacceptable.

To give you a little example of genteel 'bending the rules' in ignorance - just walked down King St. past a restaurant - 7 ladies seated round a table - all I would guess > 65!

I'm sure they aren't students who are usually blamed - obviously all of them a bit dim. 

 

 

[ricardo 7,348]

5 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

To give you a little example of genteel 'bending the rules' in ignorance - just walked down King St. past a restaurant - 7 ladies seated round a table - all I would guess > 65!

I'm sure they aren't students who are usually blamed - obviously all of them a bit dim. 

 

 

Maybe they were nuns.😉

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Maybe they were nuns.😉

Blue nuns I think 😉

 

[ricardo 7,348]

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Ricardo - If 'Fraser Nelson' really wants to compare both 'waves' as he infers then he needs also to normalize for the demographic prevalence of the virus in both waves. Currently, large numbers of the 'infections' are predominantly in the younger generations - lots of students upon University return - but is now as per ONS figures clearly migrating to the older generations despite their 'shielding'. In the first wave lots of unwary elderly and vulnerable (i.e Boris himself) where involved from the outset hence the steeper rise - the current foothills of the 'rise' for the second wave and similar demographics is what terrifies now the NHS and by extension PHE and the government. I would however expect a slower rise (better prevention) but see little reason to suspect it won't get to the same peaks or more without some general Tier 3 plus actions.  

 

[FenwayFrank 2,457]

51 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Maybe they were nuns.😉

Like this one ? 

 

[Herman 9,717]

Holy Mary!! I went to the wrong Catholic school. 

[ricardo 7,348]

35 minutes ago, Herman said:

Holy Mary!! I went to the wrong Catholic school. 

I nearly said Jesus Christ.

[ricardo 7,348]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

. I would however expect a slower rise (better prevention) but see little reason to suspect it won't get to the same peaks or more without some general Tier 3 plus actions.  

 

This is where you and I disagree, I don't see any possibility of it reaching the peaks of March / April. There will be lots of positives detected as is happening in the rest of Europe but they haven't seen the elevated fatalities and  neither have we. The WHO has already said that Lockdowns should only ever be used as a last resort to prevent Health services becoming overwhelmed and I don't see any evidence for that yet. Basing policy on experts models that have deviated so far from reality does not seem a sensible idea to me.

When all this began we knew very little about the virus and it was quite legitimate to speculate that this might be something close to  the scale of a minor Black Death. I admit I was thinking along those lines myself when case fatality rates were looking horrendous in April. Since then we have seen that the actual CFR is about 0.23%, unpleasantly high but not anywhere as bad as we were expecting. Added to that most fatalities were in the aged who already had health problems and on average the death by Covid age was about 82 years. I don't want to minimise the problem but we need to look at this in the wider context and yes there will be younger victims who have long periods of ill health but this is also a factor in many other viruses.

I am afraid that the idea of zero Covid is an impossible myth, eventuall a vaccine will help but it seems unlikely to eliminate the problem. Just like other Coronaviruses, this virus is going to be around for a very long time, maybe it will never completely go away so we need to find a way to live with it. Those in the advanced age group ( that means me) are just going to have to be very careful and I don't believe that we should expect the young pay the penalty of continual or extended lockdowns that do nothing but slightly delay the inevitable. Young people need to be getting on with there lives, destroying the economy is no good for them and no good for the elderly and vulnerable either.

[ricardo 7,348]

Tuesday is usually the highest of the week due to catching up from weekend under reporting

260k  tests

21311- 241           7days ago 17234        14 days ago  14500

 

Inpatients  6431   up 823 since the last report on Saturday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   9338 - 73

France 13243 - 146

Spain  12214 - 73

Germany  6750 - 33

Edited October 20, 2020 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,348]

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

28 minutes ago, ricardo said:

This is where you and I disagree, I don't see any possibility of it reaching the peaks of March / April. There will be lots of positives detected as is happening in the rest of Europe but they haven't seen the elevated fatalities and  neither have we. The WHO has already said that Lockdowns should only ever be used as a last resort to prevent Health services becoming overwhelmed and I don't see any evidence for that yet. Basing policy on experts models that have deviated so far from reality does not seem a sensible idea to me.

When all this began we knew very little about the virus and it was quite legitimate to speculate that this might be something close to  the scale of a minor Black Death. I admit I was thinking along those lines myself when case fatality rates were looking horrendous in April. Since then we have seen that the actual CFR is about 0.23%, unpleasantly high but not anywhere as bad as we were expecting. Added to that most fatalities were in the aged who already had health problems and on average the death by Covid age was about 82 years. I don't want to minimise the problem but we need to look at this in the wider context and yes there will be younger victims who have long periods of ill health but this is also a factor in many other viruses.

I am afraid that the idea of zero Covid is an impossible myth, eventuall a vaccine will help but it seems unlikely to eliminate the problem. Just like other Coronaviruses, this virus is going to be around for a very long time, maybe it will never completely go away so we need to find a way to live with it. Those in the advanced age group ( that means me) are just going to have to be very careful and I don't believe that we should expect the young pay the penalty of continual or extended lockdowns that do nothing but slightly delay the inevitable. Young people need to be getting on with there lives, destroying the economy is no good for them and no good for the elderly and vulnerable either.

Most of this I agree with.

However - the average age of those in ICU at present if I recall was about 60 !

If we don't take some necessary actions it will indeed reach the same number as earlier - what's to stop it  - but of course the government will have to act well before that as indeed they are - if somewhat reluctantly.

Covid will never go away - but we need to manage it - same as measles. That means keeping the 'lid' on until we have a seasonal vaccine for the elderly at least and even better treatment than at present - preferably not in hospital.

This winter will be tough.  

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

I suggest people read this thread on twitter as an alternative expert opinion on what’s happening. This is not the ramblings if a conspiracy theorist, he has worked along side Patrick valance and held key positions in some of the worlds biggest pharmaceutical companies 
 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot

[ricardo 7,348]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Covid will never go away - but we need to manage it - same as measles. That means keeping the 'lid' on until we have a seasonal vaccine for the elderly at least and even better treatment than at present - preferably not in hospital.

This winter will be tough.  

I am sure it will.

[Van wink 2,994]

On 17/10/2020 at 19:01, Van wink said:

Looking at massive numbers here, if the age profile of those infected continues to shift there is every chance that number of infections may start to come down but at the same time hospitalisations increase. Time will tell.

A big rise locally!!

[ricardo 7,348]

2 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

I suggest people read this thread on twitter as an alternative expert opinion on what’s happening. 
 

 

There is certainly some unwarranted panic by the powers that be and I am not surprised that they are taking a safety first route. In the long run however I don't think it will be any more effective.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

Just now, ricardo said:

There is certainly some unwarranted panic by the powers that be and I am not surprised that they are taking a safety first route. In the long run however I don't think it will be any more effective.

How much of the thread did you read?  This isn’t the ramblings of a conspiracy theorist. He’s worked along side Patrick valance and held positions of significance in major pharmaceutical companies 

[Bagster 101]

Hi girls 😁

 

[Bagster 101]

I hope you've all signed the Great Barrington declaration

Remember we are Brits, no hiding under the bed for us 😁

[ricardo 7,348]

14 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

How much of the thread did you read?  This isn’t the ramblings of a conspiracy theorist. He’s worked along side Patrick valance and held positions of significance in major pharmaceutical companies 

I am well aware of that and agree with much of what was said. I am merely stating that the powers that be have their arses to cover and see a lockdown as the path of least resistance.

[ricardo 7,348]

13 minutes ago, Bagster said:

I hope you've all signed the Great Barrington declaration

Remember we are Brits, no hiding under the bed for us 😁

I prefer behind the settee.

I may get some practice tonight if the game is close.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

24 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I am well aware of that and agree with much of what was said. I am merely stating that the powers that be have their arses to cover and see a lockdown as the path of least resistance.

Do you not find it concerning that he’s claiming the nhs has been run by design to prioritise covid over other killer diseases and allow people to die from other causes. And he’s saying that sage should either resign for their incompetence or if they know what they are doing they should be arrested for crimes and conspiracy? I’d say a major scientist making these accusations against sage and the government is something very concerning, wouldn’t you?

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot

[ricardo 7,348]

2 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Do you not find it concerning that he’s claiming the nhs has been run by design to prioritise covid over other killer diseases and allow people to die from other causes. And he’s saying that sage should either resign for their incompetence or if they know what they are doing they should be arrested for crimes and conspiracy? I’d say a major scientist making these accusations against sage and the government is something very concerning, wouldn’t you?

The prioritising of Covid shouldnt be a surprise, its the only thing the majority are concerned with at the moment. That people are dieing from other causes because they can't get treated is not a surprise either. What do you think they should do?

[ricardo 7,348]

 

[Well b back 3,190]

I would be really interested to know Teemu what you feel about the several thousand young people ( of which 350 will be selected ) that have volunteered and in January will be injected with the Coronavirus. Do you consider them as world heroes or complete idiots ?
 

[Bagster 101]

Have you met Ivor Cummins

Analysis for Ireland

https://youtu.be/PRu6Mgb49Uk

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I would be really interested to know Teemu what you feel about the several thousand young people ( of which 350 will be selected ) that have volunteered and in January will be injected with the Coronavirus. Do you consider them as world heroes or complete idiots ?
 

I’ve no feelings either way about them. What I have strong feelings about is the damage that lockdown has done and the many unnecessary lives it has cost and will continue to take.  A recent government paper put the number at up to 200k because of locking down 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

2 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

I’ve no feelings either way about them. What I have strong feelings about is the damage that lockdown has done and the many unnecessary lives it has cost and will continue to take.  A recent government paper put the number at up to 200k because of locking down 

200k has to be nonsense. Its not in the excess deaths. If you're looking forward then I suspect Covis is winning that race hands down too.

No doubt some people will have put off life saving treatment for fear of Covid - but at present and over the summer the NHS was supposed to be operating at near normal levels.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

200k has to be nonsense. Its not in the excess deaths. If you're looking forward then I suspect Covis is winning that race hands down too.

No doubt some people will have put off life saving treatment for fear of Covid - but at present and over the summer the NHS was supposed to be operating at near normal levels.

Take it up with the government, thats the figure they have put on it that it could take. This week cancer research U.K. have put the figure of people missing  urgently referred to hospital with suspected cancer symptoms since the end of March due to covid as 350,000 people

 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot