Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

12 hours ago, Surfer said:

Peston is digging into it.... he suggested the chemical industry says there is no problem with reagent availability. 

Thanks for that. Peston isn’t always the most reliable of sources but if he can put people in contact who can ensure reagent supplies are available for tests then great. 
The antibody test will be a game changer but It’s not clear to me when that is going to be available.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

8 hours ago, JF said:

Appreciate that. It’s when people and particularly in this case a child die from this, they die alone that’s done me with that one, poor kid 

It’s shocking. I don’t know the details of this other than when I heard it yesterday they said a child had died “who had tested positive”. With an increasing number of infections people are going to die from time to time of other causes and still test positive. I’m certainly not  saying this is the case here, I don’t know, and  in no way am I trying to deflect from the tragedy.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Van wink

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

17 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s shocking. I don’t know the details of this other than when I heard it yesterday they said a child had died “who had tested positive”. With an increasing number of infections people are going to die from time to time of other causes and still test positive. I’m certainly not  saying this is the case here, I don’t know, and  in no way am I trying to deflect from the tragedy.

The trouble is, some underlying problems are unknown, like the Bolton player who nearly died at Spurs. The number of people in this country who have type 2 diabetes but don't realise is probably huge. So there are people out there who think they'll be OK if they get it but they won't. 

Another risk factor revealed by a doctor on Radio 2 yesterday is that people with type A blood are adversely affected but no one knows why. There seem to be a lot of unknowns! 

[Van wink 2,994]

52 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Thanks for that. Peston isn’t always the most reliable of sources but if he can put people in contact who can ensure reagent supplies are available for tests then great. 
The antibody test will be a game changer but It’s not clear to me when that is going to be available.

Listening to the industry spokesman on Today show it sounds like we could be doing more now by using private companies but our approach seems to be to build up capacity within the Health service which would presumably account for the delay.

[Essjayess 307]

10 hours ago, T said:

Well actually no according to the emergency planning professor a pandemic is one of the top riskS to plan for and all major organisations know you should have a disaster plan ready to implement. The US shut down their relevant planning department. and the UK were planning for Brexit. Now no one can fully plan for this but the US and UK are scrambling because of a lack of planning. 
 

the s Koreans because of past experience and the Germans because they are German had a plan and implemented it. The UK is doing its best to scramble I’m sure but it does look as if they are making it up as they go along rather than working to a Prepared plan which is standard practice for a risk that was always considered likely to happen at some time given previous disease outbreaks. 

My point was T, most nations on Earth were not ready for Coronavirus, you stated about Germany and S. Korea and i agree they were probably the 2 best prepared for such a pamdemic, but i made the point that many or most nations were not, Even Italy, who have been mentioned as one of the best health care systems in Europe, have been totally over run. Its fine saying that nations should be prepared for a national disaster on this scale, its fine to point out the 2 that seemed to have prepared the most, but the majority in the world have not, and that is lax.

[Aggy 752]

1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

The trouble is, some underlying problems are unknown, like the Bolton player who nearly died at Spurs. The number of people in this country who have type 2 diabetes but don't realise is probably huge. So there are people out there who think they'll be OK if they get it but they won't. 

 

Obviously don’t mean to belittle the tragedy of any thirteen year old (or anyone else) dying, but isn’t your point here just life? As you say, there have been a few high profile football deaths where players just collapse on the pitch and die - footballers are some of the fittest people on earth, it shouldn’t happen. Youngsters die in car crashes every day. A dad of one of the lads I used to play cricket with died in his early fifties this week - had been battling cancer for probably ten years (death nothing to do with coronavirus), didn’t smoke, didn’t drink much, used to be in the navy, very fit and athletic, but struck down too young. People drop dead with heart attacks or strokes in their fifties and sixties or younger.
 

Life’s scary but you can’t live it worrying about what unknown things might happen to you or you’d never do anything. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Aggy

[Aggy 752]

14 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

My point was T, most nations on Earth were not ready for Coronavirus, you stated about Germany and S. Korea and i agree they were probably the 2 best prepared for such a pamdemic, but i made the point that many or most nations were not, Even Italy, who have been mentioned as one of the best health care systems in Europe, have been totally over run. Its fine saying that nations should be prepared for a national disaster on this scale, its fine to point out the 2 that seemed to have prepared the most, but the majority in the world have not, and that is lax.

Can you prepare fully for every possible disaster? If this was a different sort of virus or bacteria that didn’t affect your lungs as much as it affected your liver or kidneys or something else, then all the extra ventilators in the world wouldn’t make much difference. 

[T 190]

25 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

My point was T, most nations on Earth were not ready for Coronavirus, you stated about Germany and S. Korea and i agree they were probably the 2 best prepared for such a pamdemic, but i made the point that many or most nations were not, Even Italy, who have been mentioned as one of the best health care systems in Europe, have been totally over run. Its fine saying that nations should be prepared for a national disaster on this scale, its fine to point out the 2 that seemed to have prepared the most, but the majority in the world have not, and that is lax.

Agreed. Humans are bad at perceiving risk. They perceive it based on own recent personal experience and what is in the news. Eg somewhere saying that the NHS is in good shape based on their own personal experience does not mean it is in good shape overall. Experts have always said that a serious pandemic was likely to occur at some time but has been ignored in the culture of the punter knows better than experts. They don’t as has been clearly demonstrated. My major beef with that other topic apart from the implicit racism was not that it would have a negative economic impact but that it is wrong to ignore experts and that there are a lot more important priorities than nationalism.
 

Assessing risk should be built into the education system. Thinking in a logical rational evidence based way should be part of the education system. It is built into the post war German education system in a response to populist nationalist thinking and that is why German is better placed rather than priorities based on sound bites. To the govt credit I think they are taking a more science based approach and even Trump appears to have finally got it but the UK govt is still represented by journalists who by trade who are too predisposed to spin rather than boring facts and actions. These are the fundamental lessons. 

[T 190]

18 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Can you prepare fully for every possible disaster? If this was a different sort of virus or bacteria that didn’t affect your lungs as much as it affected your liver or kidneys or something else, then all the extra ventilators in the world wouldn’t make much difference. 

No you can’t but given we have colds,flu, SARS and MARS and coronavirus exists already it is not a surprise to experts. You can still have general emergency plans. Disasters do happen so you should have a disaster plan. The UK disaster resources were focused on the self imposed problems rather than existential threats. For those that said they should have seen it coming and been bette prepared I would agree. It is somewhat ironic that due to their views this didn’t happen. I do think the UK is trying to remedy the situation but it is classic British muddling through rather than based on pre planning and organisation which I see all the time in business. The British are good at reacting rather than planning. I know that is a generalisation but I see it all the time in business. There is a certain self distructive   National arrogance that the punter knows best. A colleague  moving to continental Europe noted that other countries are much more ready to turn to experts rather than I know best muddle through attitude. 

[SteveN8458 64]

10 hours ago, Bill said:

The disturbing thing is not that he is such a incompetent liar, as is Trump, but there are still those who feel so threatened by collective action that they prepared to come on here and make such ar ses of themselves trying to defend him. Mostly with idiotic 'whayaboutery'.

Johnson ? No he never said anything about handwashing, did not lie about joining EU equipment purchase. Has not 'about turned' more times than a drill instructor on speed.

Disturbing when the evidence is there. Just as it is today as NHS staff are being threatened with dismissal if they speak out about a lack of equipment.

And here, in a quite accurate article, is what those not so blinded by the constant tugging of their forelocks which provides a damning apprasail of probably the most useless and incompetent fool to occupy number 10 - an excellent piece

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/opinion/coronavirus-uk-boris-johnson.html

Very good article, reflects my views on how this has been handled to a 'T'

[ricardo 7,349]

35 minutes ago, T said:

No you can’t but given we have colds,flu, SARS and MARS and coronavirus exists already it is not a surprise to experts. You can still have general emergency plans. Disasters do happen so you should have a disaster plan. The UK disaster resources were focused on the self imposed problems rather than existential threats. For those that said they should have seen it coming and been bette prepared I would agree. It is somewhat ironic that due to their views this didn’t happen. I do think the UK is trying to remedy the situation but it is classic British muddling through rather than based on pre planning and organisation which I see all the time in business. The British are good at reacting rather than planning. I know that is a generalisation but I see it all the time in business. There is a certain self distructive   National arrogance that the punter knows best. A colleague  moving to continental Europe noted that other countries are much more ready to turn to experts rather than I know best muddle through attitude. 

Meanwhile despite that load of anti British bluster, we find Germany on exactlty the same path as us and every other European nation.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/?fbclid=IwAR3NwJw4O1cYpHrgEfGgVb4ZqFx7lQTsmWKyqcGXIgq5krxW0HskhPkTCug#e

[Mello Yello 2,282]

People still smarting......they have to have their pound of flesh......

[Andrew2020 0]

The real thread of the world. Our work of domystats and wedoyouraccountingclass is completely stopped for this situation.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Why do we have to compare ourselves with another country. We should be doing our best for our Nation. We are now being lied to by the Government. We do have the resources, We have the Reagents. We have the testing laboratories, 44 I am led to believe, that would be able to cope with the 25K target.

I wouldn't mind if the Government came out and said that they probably have made errors, listened to polarised expert advice and despite the warnings of an impending pandemic three years ago, took little notice because of flaming Brexit!

But to limply say "we are increasing" is not good enough. We are being told not to make to political. Fair enough as long as the Government stops acting political. If we need to hang on for longer, then we hang on. If we isolate even further, then we isolate. But don't cover it up.

[SHRIMPER 328]

Especialy developed for SWINDO

Edited April 1, 2020 by SHRIMPER

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Meanwhile despite that load of anti British bluster, we find Germany on exactlty the same path as us and every other European nation.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/?fbclid=IwAR3NwJw4O1cYpHrgEfGgVb4ZqFx7lQTsmWKyqcGXIgq5krxW0HskhPkTCug#e

German death rate up by 25% today, 149, Spain sees another big jump 869

[ricardo 7,349]

All on much the same path, not a surprise. The virus just requires a willing host, it doesn't check your nationality first.

[Badger 2,405]

2 hours ago, Aggy said:

Can you prepare fully for every possible disaster? If this was a different sort of virus or bacteria that didn’t affect your lungs as much as it affected your liver or kidneys or something else, then all the extra ventilators in the world wouldn’t make much difference. 

I think that the point is that Covid 19 was known to affect the respiratory system in January, but the govt was very slow to react. This is the main criticism that the Lancet has and indeed it is also stated by their own ex-Health secretary, Jeremy Hunt.

I'm not saying that everything the govt has done is bad - quite the reverse - of late, it has responded quite well of late in unique circumstances. However, it was slow off the mark, and policy has only really improved since the big U turn that they made, when a far greater sense of urgency developed. My fear is, however, that lives will be lost as a result of the dithering at the start and I find the attempts to justify the shortages of protective equipment to NHS staff, care workers and other essential services genuinely baffling. 

[sonyc 5,492]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Meanwhile despite that load of anti British bluster, we find Germany on exactlty the same path as us and every other European nation.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/?fbclid=IwAR3NwJw4O1cYpHrgEfGgVb4ZqFx7lQTsmWKyqcGXIgq5krxW0HskhPkTCug#e

Whilst I absolutely deplore HOW our cabinet / government leaders are managing this crisis (the lack of clarity, their constant management of their image, lack of planning focus, strategy focus etc...all evidenced in my view in front of my eyes each time I hear various political spokespeople at those daily press briefings...the scientists are better) I think that these graphs are the most instructional of all. They show, to me anyway, that the disease is going to simply take its course, almost despite what different nations are doing.

 

It's going to just develop and develop quite predictably (you often get little outliers but these are exceptions...thinking the Netherlands here). That seems to me the cold, hard-edged logic. As for China I've read from Wuhan they have been cremating over 3000 a day for weeks (in Wuhan alone). Residents and officials have cast serious doubt on the overall reported number. So, I'm not sure that those astonishing measures China took can be considered the best strategy. I'm just no longer sure. And I doubt we will ever know.

 

The interesting thing about those graphs is whether they will look symmetrical if one was to project them forward? You'd assume they will but what shape will they take? If the virus runs its course, you'd expect a similar trajectory and gradual decline leading to a soft bell curve? Or might there be an extended peak? This obviously is important to watch and will indicate when society can return more to normal across the globe. If the UK is behind Italy as shown then it could seriously be 2 / 3 months before a decline in numbers. Most obvious is the likely effect on any football seasons anywhere!

[T 190]

We have some people crowing about how well they are prepared yet don’t think it is good thing that other countries prepared better. Hypocritical.
 

I’m not anti British and I still have a British passport which I intend to keep.  The UK has the best info I have seen and has some of the best medical experts as I’ve already said. However  It is a foolish to think that you can’t learn something  from other countries on some things, that punters and you tubers know better than experts and that nationalistic ideology should be a higher priority than healthcare. 
 

When it comes to this ventilators, testing and planning is generally considered to be a good thing and some countries have done better so it is ridiculous to deny that. . It is surely better to learn from other countries than continue to be obsessed by xenophobic idealoogy. Some people have repeatedly said that there is a price worth paying for nationalism. Personally I don’t think nationalism is worth lives but clearly some people believe differently and are not willing to take responsibility for their views. 

[Aggy 752]

1 hour ago, Badger said:

I think that the point is that Covid 19 was known to affect the respiratory system in January, but the govt was very slow to react. This is the main criticism that the Lancet has and indeed it is also stated by their own ex-Health secretary, Jeremy Hunt.

I'm not saying that everything the govt has done is bad - quite the reverse - of late, it has responded quite well of late in unique circumstances. However, it was slow off the mark, and policy has only really improved since the big U turn that they made, when a far greater sense of urgency developed. My fear is, however, that lives will be lost as a result of the dithering at the start and I find the attempts to justify the shortages of protective equipment to NHS staff, care workers and other essential services genuinely baffling. 

Second time you’ve quoted me about the NHS and said something completely different to my post. You ignored me when I mentioned this yesterday (edit: it was Monday, apologies) but evidently you’re just going to keep misquoting me.
 

Where have I attempted to justify such shortages? 
 

As i said in response to your previous misquote, there are two different points, one to do with how we have responded and a second to do with how well prepared or not prepared we were based on years of funding or lack of funding.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Aggy

[ricardo 7,349]

34 minutes ago, T said:

We have some people crowing about how well they are prepared yet don’t think it is good thing that other countries prepared better. Hypocritical.
 

 

I think its an exellent idea for all countries to be as prepared as possible and I doubt the virus has any interest in what nationality it finds a host in. Italy and Spain have decent health systems which have been brought to their knees; I expect it will be the same everywhere.

When a 500 foot tidal wave approaches it makes no difference if the seawall is 20 feet or 50 feet high. It will all be swept away.

All countries are on a similar path and very likely to suffer very similar losses as can be clearly seen on the graphs provided.

[Van wink 2,994]

sonyc

"They show, to me anyway, that the disease is going to simply take its course, almost despite what different nations are doing"

That's about the size of. The most significant intervention will be our own individual behaviour.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Van wink

[Aggy 752]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I think its an exellent idea for all countries to be as prepared as possible and I doubt the virus has any interest in what nationality it finds a host in. Italy and Spain have decent health systems which have been brought to their knees; I expect it will be the same everywhere.

When a 500 foot tidal wave approaches it makes no difference if the seawall is 20 feet or 50 feet high. It will all be swept away.

All countries are on a similar path and very likely to suffer very similar losses as can be clearly seen on the graphs provided.

I think this is the point. Could we have had more ventilators, more masks, more whatever? Yes very probably. Would it have made much difference? Probably not a massive amount.

The second point is that you can’t predict everything that might happen. The NHS has been stretched for decades. There are competing needs across the board. With hindsight, yes it would have been great to have more ventilators. But if you’d gone to people in the NHS six months ago and said “here’s £x million to invest, what do you want?” I’d guess fifty thousand additional ventilators would probably not have been that high up the list. 

 

[Mark .Y. 351]

I'm a little confused about what testing is going on.

Is it just the frontline NHS staff and those arriving in hospital with severe symptoms ? I assume that would be the best way to go with what appears to be limited resources.

Certainly it seems fairly pointless to me to test any of the general population at the moment (except for statistical purposes) as even if the test is positive, you will just be told to self-isolate indoors.

Have I understood things right or am I missing something ??

[ricardo 7,349]

15 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I think this is the point. Could we have had more ventilators, more masks, more whatever? Yes very probably. Would it have made much difference? Probably not a massive amount.

The second point is that you can’t predict everything that might happen. The NHS has been stretched for decades. There are competing needs across the board. With hindsight, yes it would have been great to have more ventilators. But if you’d gone to people in the NHS six months ago and said “here’s £x million to invest, what do you want?” I’d guess fifty thousand additional ventilators would probably not have been that high up the list. 

 

i have yet to hear that we have run out of ventilators and the news yesterday was that new supplies are on tap at the weekend. Industry has done an amazing job here in a very short time span.

[Badger 2,405]

38 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Second time you’ve quoted me about the NHS and said something completely different to my post. You ignored me when I mentioned this yesterday (edit: it was Monday, apologies) but evidently you’re just going to keep misquoting me.
 

Where have I attempted to justify such shortages? 
 

As i said in response to your previous misquote, there are two different points, one to do with how we have responded and a second to do with how well prepared or not prepared we were based on years of funding or lack of funding.

Sorry Aggy, I am not clear what you are saying - are you saying we prepared well when the virus became known about (January) or we did not prepare well?

[Barbe bleu 816]

26 minutes ago, Aggy said:

There are competing needs across the board. With hindsight, yes it would have been great to have more ventilators. But if you’d gone to people in the NHS six months ago and said “here’s £x million to invest, what do you want?” I’d guess fifty thousand additional ventilators would probably not have been that high up the list. 

 

Very much this.  I said on the corbyn thread that he was quick to snipe and say that his call to invest in the NHS has  been vindicated.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of investimg in the NHS per se (and I agree that we should invest more) there is little evidence that he would have spent this extra money on the things which people say we need now (thousands of ventilators, millions of PPE sleeves and face masks, testing kits for new strain viruses, antibody re-agents, new monoculture hospitals in conference centres etc)

Edited April 1, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Barbe bleu 816]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

i have yet to hear that we have run out of ventilators and the news yesterday was that new supplies are on tap at the weekend. Industry has done an amazing job here in a very short time span.

There was one report of a hospital being overrun (northwick park) but I don't think it has happened again and to date I have heard  nothing to say that anyone needing a bed or ventilator has been unable to access it somewhere locally.

Whether this situation will last time will tell.  Let's hope we have.  If we have those involved should be very proud, if not....

[wcorkcanary 4,329]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

All on much the same path, not a surprise. The virus just requires a willing host, it doesn't check your nationality first.

That's ok then as I'm  not a willing host , by any stretch of the imagination.