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9 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

We need to realise that if we want to have liberty and to keep people alive we must be sensible, restrict ourselves and play by the rules.  If we don't the choice for government is stark, deaths or redundancies.  It was good to have a reminder today but if we need a second the gloves must come off again.

And I say this as an optimist.  I've always thought that a degree of spread is not necessarily a bad thing, that in the long run we'll fair no worse and no better than comparable countries or areas and that lockdown was never going to be a magic bullet.

 

Seems many think Johnson should have gone further - matched Scotland on house visiting.

I would tend to agree - Suspect this will fail and full on lock down almost inevitable later. Too little too late all over again? 

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15 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Don't think he has a clue what the point actually is, staggeringly incompetent and a complete embarassment to be British when we have a complete idiot running the country in the greatest crisis most of us have ever experienced.

the biggest crisis I have ever lived through was the Cuban nuclear missile crisis of 1962 when we were literally days away from nukeing the planet. Although I was just a kid at the time, the fear of being the end of times was much greater than what we are experiencing today. 

Edited by Rock The Boat

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12 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

We need to realise that if we want to have liberty and to keep people alive we must be sensible, restrict ourselves and play by the rules.  If we don't the choice for government is stark, deaths or redundancies.  It was good to have a reminder today but if we need a second the gloves must come off again.

And I say this as an optimist.  I've always thought that a degree of spread is not necessarily a bad thing, that in the long run we'll fair no worse and no better than comparable countries or areas and that lockdown was never going to be a magic bullet.

 

My wife's restaurant was back up to full speed thanks to the hugely successful Eat Out campaign.  Last name night with the announcement of new restrictions, they were empty. So all the good work has been undone at a stroke with people fearful to go out again. With furloughing coming to an end, if trade doesn't pick up then redundancies will sweep through the hospitality industries and these small businesses, once closed, will never open again. 

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16 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

My wife's restaurant was back up to full speed thanks to the hugely successful Eat Out campaign.  Last name night with the announcement of new restrictions, they were empty. So all the good work has been undone at a stroke with people fearful to go out again. With furloughing coming to an end, if trade doesn't pick up then redundancies will sweep through the hospitality industries and these small businesses, once closed, will never open again. 

I have sympathy with such businesses - but one could equally say all the good work (and pain) from the original lockdown was undone at a stroke by the obviously over hasty reopening - indeed active encouragement of such venues. Eat out to keep Covid going Sunak ?

For what it's worth the 10pm close seems a sensible compromise in the circumstances.

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Seems many think Johnson should have gone further - matched Scotland on house visiting.

I would tend to agree - Suspect this will fail and full on lock down almost inevitable later. Too little too late all over again? 

Only going one way...

Coronavirus: Scotland sees record 486 people test positive in a day

A total of 486 people have tested positive for coronavirus in Scotland in the last 24 hours, the highest number of cases recorded in a single day, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

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Coronavirus: Scotland sees record 486 people test positive in a day

A total of 486 people have tested positive for coronavirus in Scotland in the last 24 hours, the highest number of cases recorded in a single day, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Hospital admissions and deaths will be sadly be following but it seems many will only take this seriously again when they see that happening. 

Edited by Van wink

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26 minutes ago, Van wink said:

 

Coronavirus: Scotland sees record 486 people test positive in a day

A total of 486 people have tested positive for coronavirus in Scotland in the last 24 hours, the highest number of cases recorded in a single day, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Hospital admissions and deaths will be sadly be following but it seems many will only take this seriously again when they see that happening. 

I think they only do about 6k tests per day so thats a big percentage of positives if true.

Just checked and its 14 k so about three and a half percent.

Edited by ricardo
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45 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I think they only do about 6k tests per day so thats a big percentage of positives if true.

Just checked and its 14 k so about three and a half percent.

I'm really very dubious statistically about reading too much into these testing positive (or negative) percentages.

Presently we have the situation which will only get worse where every snivel at school / university / workplace requires a Covid test for the child/student/adult to return. My guess is that a very large number of tests are being done on or by many such people 'to be sure' expecting a negative result. It's a biased self selecting sample at present often to prove a negative.

The ONS true random sampling I think is far more a useful figure but doesn't have the media immediacy of the daily fluctuating figures. 

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Don’t know if it’s good or worse YF but today’s % in Scotland was 7.8% according to Sturgeon.

"Nevertheless, today's number represents 7.8% of people newly tested. That is obviously a real cause for concern, but it also underlines why we took very decisive and very tough action yesterday."

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm really very dubious statistically about reading too much into these testing positive (or negative) percentages.

Presently we have the situation which will only get worse where every snivel at school / university / workplace requires a Covid test for the child/student/adult to return. My guess is that a very large number of tests are being done on or by many such people 'to be sure' expecting a negative result. It's a biased self selecting sample at present often to prove a negative.

The ONS true random sampling I think is far more a useful figure but doesn't have the media immediacy of the daily fluctuating figures. 

I’m not sure any of the stats on testing are particularly definitive for comparisons or analysing “trends” really.

As you point out for quite a while now anyone could and probably have been going to get tested so the percentages go down. If as a result of this current shortage of tests we start to reserve tests for front line workers and hospital admissions, the percentages will likely shoot up. The number of infections themselves is pretty useless without taking into account testing capacity - if the number of infections drops next week, is it because people aren’t getting infected or because they can’t be bothered to drive 300 miles to get the only test left in the country? And then we don’t truly know how many infections there were in March so it’s difficult to benchmark now against then based on number of infections.

Haven’t seen the ONS random sampling before. When did they start / how far back does their data go?

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I’m not sure any of the stats on testing are particularly definitive for comparisons or analysing “trends” really.

As you point out for quite a while now anyone could and probably have been going to get tested so the percentages go down. If as a result of this current shortage of tests we start to reserve tests for front line workers and hospital admissions, the percentages will likely shoot up. The number of infections themselves is pretty useless without taking into account testing capacity - if the number of infections drops next week, is it because people aren’t getting infected or because they can’t be bothered to drive 300 miles to get the only test left in the country? And then we don’t truly know how many infections there were in March so it’s difficult to benchmark now against then based on number of infections.

Haven’t seen the ONS random sampling before. When did they start / how far back does their data go?

 

 

 

Agree with this Aggy 🙂. They do show trends but with all sorts of caveats.

The ONS go back a long way now but are always a week or 'so old' when released but 150,000 now (ws 50K I recall early days)  truly randomly selected tests across the country (and a 20 year long term follow up) . It's these numbers that cause the real anxiety in govt and scientists.

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm really very dubious statistically about reading too much into these testing positive (or negative) percentages.

Presently we have the situation which will only get worse where every snivel at school / university / workplace requires a Covid test for the child/student/adult to return. My guess is that a very large number of tests are being done on or by many such people 'to be sure' expecting a negative result. It's a biased self selecting sample at present often to prove a negative.

The ONS true random sampling I think is far more a useful figure but doesn't have the media immediacy of the daily fluctuating figures. 

I am exactly of the opposite opinion. People who think they might have it are obviously anxious to have a test therefore the testing percentage probably overstates the real position.

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5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I am exactly of the opposite opinion. People who think they might have it are obviously anxious to have a test therefore the testing percentage probably overstates the real position.

Being devils advocate Ricardo I really suspect many who are working and think they 'may' have it the very last thing they will want is a formal test and enforced isolation. Many won't take it 'just in case' and self manage ! It works all ways.

  

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16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Agree with this Aggy 🙂. They do show trends but with all sorts of caveats.

The ONS go back a long way now but are always a week or 'so old' when released but 150,000 now (ws 50K I recall early days)  truly randomly selected tests across the country (and a 20 year long term follow up) . It's these numbers that cause the real anxiety in govt and scientists.

The Zoe  study is the best measure for me, now showing nearly 13000 cases a day

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

6178 today

Yes - I suspect Whitty & Valance knew already what was coming. It's also true that the next week or two are already home and hosed  - in the bag - as far as Covid is concerned!

How many lives does Johnson have ?

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1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - I suspect Whitty & Valance knew already what was coming. It's also true that the next week or two are already home and hosed  - in the bag - as far as Covid is concerned!

How many lives does Johnson have ?

Definitely.

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Definitely.

This is the issue - even if the latest restrictions are effective it may take 2 weeks to really show.

Taking Zoe - 13000 x 2 x 2 = 50,000 ish. That getting up towards the numbers estimated last March!

Edited by Yellow Fever

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Positives climb a little over 2.8% of tests

Latest UK Numbers 

6178 - 37

Inpatients  1469  up 150 since yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1392 - 14

France 10008 - 78

Spain  10779 - 241

Germany  1625 -10

Spanish and French fluctuating wildly

German and Italian very steady

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12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Being devils advocate Ricardo I really suspect many who are working and think they 'may' have it the very last thing they will want is a formal test and enforced isolation. Many won't take it 'just in case' and self manage ! It works all ways.

  

Possibly but not something any sensible person should do. If you have it any delay could prove fatal.

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Just now, ricardo said:

Possibly but not something any sensible person should do. If you have it any delay could prove fatal.

Yes  - but lots have it mildly or even asymptomatically. If you were a tradesman who only gets paid when you work you might think twice about a test 'on the off chance' if you felt you more likely had a mild cold or similar - perhaps an acquaintance of somebody who did have it - let's wait and see. It's just human nature. You can see it on here all the time.

Two weeks no pay and a lot of inconvenience (even fines) is a great persuader you don't have it!

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10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Positives climb a little over 2.8% of tests

Latest UK Numbers 

6178 - 37

Inpatients  1469  up 150 since yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.

Italy   1392 - 14

France 10008 - 78

Spain  10779 - 241

Germany  1625 -10

Spanish and French fluctuating wildly

German and Italian very steady

Ignoring the positives and noise - the 'in-patients' now seem to be climbing quite quickly - 10% a day ? Is it now breaking back into the elderly again?. 

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Which is why you need a “ if you test positive, the Government will pay you four weeks income”  program. You will never fix this problem without secure personal economies, and you will never fix the overall economy without mitigating the viral spread. So Treasury and Health - plans please for wage compensation and T3 (Test, Track, Trace) ? If no plans, please resign and let someone else do your job instead. 

Edited by Surfer

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17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ignoring the positives and noise - the 'in-patients' now seem to be climbing quite quickly - 10% a day ? Is it now breaking back into the elderly again?. 

It’s getting into the vulnerable groups which was inevitable, it will circulate amongst the younger age groups for a few generations of virus and then start getting into more vulnerable groups, it’s the same pattern as research showed in the States. 
Have a look at the ons graph showing infection by ethnicity, and think about vulnerable groups, a massive problem.

image.thumb.png.6b7ff867478dc7ac0d4480d96c459b14.png

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26 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Which is why you need a “ if you test positive, the Government will pay you four weeks income”  program. You will never fix this problem without secure personal economies, and you will never fix the overall economy without mitigating the viral spread. So Treasury and Health - plans please for wage compensation and T3 (Test, Track, Trace) ? If no plans, please resign and let someone else do your job instead. 

Exactly - Many people I'm sure can't afford to test positive (or to be isolated - Even one Dom Cummings if I recall)! 

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42 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes  - but lots have it mildly or even asymptomatically. If you were a tradesman who only gets paid when you work you might think twice about a test 'on the off chance' if you felt you more likely had a mild cold or similar - perhaps an acquaintance of somebody who did have it - let's wait and see. It's just human nature. You can see it on here all the time.

Two weeks no pay and a lot of inconvenience (even fines) is a great persuader you don't have it!

I absolutely agree with this.

I also wonder whether some of the T&T issues are that people give false names/phone numbers when going into a pub for exactly the same reason. I certainly wouldn't want to have to self-isolate because somebody else in the pub, who may not have even been in the same room as me, has had a positive test 5 days later.

That might sound harsh and is certainly counter-productive in stopping the spread of the virus but I strongly believe lots of it is going on.

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32 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s getting into the vulnerable groups which was inevitable, it will circulate amongst the younger age groups for a few generations of virus and then start getting into more vulnerable groups, it’s the same pattern as research showed in the States. 
Have a look at the ons graph showing infection by ethnicity, and think about vulnerable groups, a massive problem.

image.thumb.png.6b7ff867478dc7ac0d4480d96c459b14.png

Careful, Van Winkerton, you'll get labelled a racist by the usual suspects for posting factual information...

They played that card on me way back on pg 343 >

 

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2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I absolutely agree with this.

I also wonder whether some of the T&T issues are that people give false names/phone numbers when going into a pub for exactly the same reason. I certainly wouldn't want to have to self-isolate because somebody else in the pub, who may not have even been in the same room as me, has had a positive test 5 days later.

That might sound harsh and is certainly counter-productive in stopping the spread of the virus but I strongly believe lots of it is going on.

Thanks Mark.

I'd even go a bit further. I suspect people can broadly be divided into two categories. Those that are busy working, families possibly with children at school and generally not vulnerable. For this group the prospect of having a positive test or even preventative quarantine is very unwelcome and best avoided if at all possible. It causes chaos in otherwise busy lives. Yes I'm sure most will obey the rules but won't go out of their way to get a test unless essential or unavoidable.

Then we have the more vulnerable group, largely more elderly. For this group any sign of Covid will be an existential threat and an early test and diagnosis welcome. They may also be less generally busy yet financially secure. Quarantine is less troublesome.

Given that Covid is currently believed to be more prevalent in the 1st younger set I might suspect many with symptoms are not readily coming forward.

 

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