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25 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Good news for Norfolk.

As an aside Tier 3 contact tracers are having their numbers reduced by 6000, these are not NHS employees. I’m tier two, NHS Bank, and we are going to be asked to sign a new contract before being allowed to continue, will be interested to see the new terms.

Having now seen them it looks as if amongst many things it is changing terms to allow for working with local public health teams as well as working from home

 

“5. Place of Work

 

5.1. Whilst working with NHSP, your place of work will vary depending on the work offered and accepted. Your place of work may be any location of any Trust or any NHSP base you agree to work for. No allowance will be granted to you for any expenses or time incurred in travelling to and from the place of work allocated to you.

 

5.2. You will be required to comply with the applicable local policies of each Trust you work with.“

Does this mean you could be asked to go and work in any part of the country, at your expense??

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Posted (edited)

That’s what it sounds like😁 Good luck with that. You get to choose which shifts, or as they are now calling them assignments, you do, so really it’s up to you where you go. I would only do Norfolk.( or Rennes )

Edited by Van wink
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1 hour ago, T said:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19
 

Merkel explained this very simply and clearly at the start because she was intelligent enough to understand it. Expertise does matter. Instead the UK selected its leadership based on nationalistic jingoism rather than intelligence   You make your choices and you end up with one of the worst death records in the world. Their supporters were repeatedly  warned but stubbornly  insisted they knew better than experts. They don’t and won’t learn while they remain in a state of denial which given the damage they have caused is understandable. 

That article explains exponential growth. But it's not just about growth its about who it spreads to. 

Germany, France and Spain are all controlling growth less well than the UK but this is not (yet) reflected in deaths as far as we can tell from their official reports.  Maybe this is because they are doing well at protecting the vulnerable?

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49 minutes ago, Van wink said:

That’s what it sounds like😁 Good luck with that. You get to choose which shifts, or as they are now calling them assignments, you do, so really it’s up to you where you go. I would only do Norfolk.( or Rennes )

What with all your other alias's you should be on a nice little earner.😉

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Anybody seen the new infections figures for today?

1419 Germany, 2669 France, 2935 Spain

Not seen anything for UK so far.

The official site now says 1009.

Edited by ricardo
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5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Brother in law lives in Spain and had a triple bypass in hospital in Alicante on Monday.

Today he has been told the nose sample he had has tested positive for Covid 19.

Sister in law was allowed in after the op and was staying in a hotel asthey live in Jalon.

She has been sent home to isolate but is worried she brought it into the hospital.

So far my brother in law is asymptomatic, the doctors assume his breathing is down to the operation.

Let's hope it all turns out OK, KG 👍

 

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France and The Netherlands on the naughty step 

Not good for expats in Rennes 

I hope Íslands can avoid the ban for another week so I can come home to see the family and watch Swardeston play cricket 

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5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Brother in law lives in Spain and had a triple bypass in hospital in Alicante on Monday.

Today he has been told the nose sample he had has tested positive for Covid 19.

Sister in law was allowed in after the op and was staying in a hotel asthey live in Jalon.

She has been sent home to isolate but is worried she brought it into the hospital.

So far my brother in law is asymptomatic, the doctors assume his breathing is down to the operation.

Hope it turns out OK, KG

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On 12/08/2020 at 21:11, Van wink said:

Small numbers make it very difficult, agreed. What I meant was you should consider whether you should quarantine people returning from UK.

We have testing at the border for tourists here, though it's not infallible 

Icelanders and residents need to  test  at the border, observe special measures for a few days, then test again. That's not infallible either 

I don't think anything will be 100% foolproof until we get a vaccine, or the virus hopefully weakens 

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Thousands of travellers returning to the UK from France will face quarantine restrictions from Saturday following a surge in coronavirus infections

That kicks in at 4pm I believe, so hand crank, RTB, BB et al will have to think carefully before making a visit to dear old Blighty

perhaps he could stay with his mate in Cromer (Jools).... quite near to West Runton, I believe

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3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

That article explains exponential growth. But it's not just about growth its about who it spreads to. 

Germany, France and Spain are all controlling growth less well than the UK but this is not (yet) reflected in deaths as far as we can tell from their official reports.  Maybe this is because they are doing well at protecting the vulnerable?

the problem with a lot of this is that there are many dynamics at play which mean that this virus doesn't simply follow 1 r number and thats that for a few weeks.

One big thing is the whole point around undetected cases. How can we be entirely sure that the true case numbers are rising unless we can test a significantly significant proportion of the country on a daily basis?

Also, despite everything, the deaths continue to trend downwards to almost negligible amounts when compared to the overall daily deaths numbers of all causes.

Even if there were "exponential spread" then if r was 1.1, the average transmission time is around 1 week so you would take 8 weeks for the case numbers to double. Not ideal but certainly no reason to panic if it meant we went from having 1000 new cases daily now to 2000 daily cases by mid October. We could then take more drastic action then and have more intermittent measures than 1 big iron fist. It might be more pallettable for the masses if this is indeed a marathon not a sprint.

I just can't help but think much of our efforts are futile until we learn more about the virus and come up with better ways to manage things than a destructive lockdown and enforced social distancing. Really that's the bigger, more destructive problem now rather than the virus itself.

I'm not saying we need to ignore the virus completely, just that there are other problems out there so we shouldn't just be leaning on lockdowns and that to deal with it. We need to be a bit cleverer in finding particular pinch points and focus efforts there. It just makes me think of someone ordering a massive steak and then using a paper straw in a futile effort to "save the environment"

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TJ

You overlook the social benefit this meaningless numbers serve - just as using AA was during the blitz - it done nothing to stop or even deter the bombers, but te noise reassured residents, and more importantly allowed the government to claim they were doing something

The r number thing is about as much use as a TV detector van is at actually detecting anything - but it convinces enough of the not too bright to believe it is doing something.

There are so many variables involved in the spread, in and becoming infected that this nonsense that gets put up here regularly might just as well be predictions based on certain stars aligning.

The only thing we can know for certainty is that there are an almost defined number of people this will kill if they become infected. Whilst we have a fair indication who those are (at risk) it is only at best a generalisation.

So instead of counting numbers the work should, and is almost certainly being directed at who this will kill and how to combat that.

The rest is just worthless nonsense - and yes I do side with your thought that we have to begin to 'get on with it'.

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10 minutes ago, Bill said:

TJ

You overlook the social benefit this meaningless numbers serve - just as using AA was during the blitz - it done nothing to stop or even deter the bombers, but te noise reassured residents, and more importantly allowed the government to claim they were doing something

The r number thing is about as much use as a TV detector van is at actually detecting anything - but it convinces enough of the not too bright to believe it is doing something.

There are so many variables involved in the spread, in and becoming infected that this nonsense that gets put up here regularly might just as well be predictions based on certain stars aligning.

The only thing we can know for certainty is that there are an almost defined number of people this will kill if they become infected. Whilst we have a fair indication who those are (at risk) it is only at best a generalisation.

So instead of counting numbers the work should, and is almost certainly being directed at who this will kill and how to combat that.

The rest is just worthless nonsense - and yes I do side with your thought that we have to begin to 'get on with it'.

yup, id even be okay with some kind of power plant managementesque scale whereby we have green, Amber and red warnings based on current nhs figures. If it starts looking like we are going to overwhelm the system then bang we go into full lockdown with a scale of measures down from that and a sweden style way of dealing with it when levels are low.

Perhaps it'll be over quicker than we think if we manage to get the right people vaccinated this side of winter meaning the pinch points get eliminated and the virus wanes away, starved of vulnerable people. If say it isn't and we still have this **** to deal with in 5 years then the current method of containment just isn't viable at all.

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yep, because the containment is not quantified as we have no knowledge of who is breaking it - one 'loose cannon' and it can break out in another part of the country

numbers put up on here are meaningless as we have no knowledge of who is not reporting possible symptoms, and so could be 'endangering others'

as to precautions we have those fancy dress wearers but the times I visit the supermarket and BQ I have yet to see anyone use the hand steriliser, nor clean the trolley/basket, distancing is non-existent

we need to stop the comfort stories and put it to the populace bluntly, as all this tea leave reading and mystig meg stuff causes more harm than good

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11 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

That article explains exponential growth. But it's not just about growth its about who it spreads to. 

Germany, France and Spain are all controlling growth less well than the UK but this is not (yet) reflected in deaths as far as we can tell from their official reports.  Maybe this is because they are doing well at protecting the vulnerable?

I expect Germany benefits from more ICU specialists so not just Ventilators but specialists where as UK it was all hands to the deck. A mixture of prudent culture to risk, more effective mix of public and private healthcare and more localised control. 
 

However you look at it UK has one of the worst health and economic responses and that urgently needs to be analysed and addressed rather than ignored denied and deflected from. The UK appears to have fundamental structural problems that need to be addressed. 

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On 12/08/2020 at 21:53, Van wink said:

 

I think it's a fascinating subject (virtue signalling) and I've been reading quite a bit over the last day. You've done me a big favour VW (and realise it wasn't aimed my way) in that the comment has put up a big mirror in front of me, so to speak. And I've not liked what I've seen.

Putting one's views forward is always a risk because you state your side of the fence. And I've realised I am probably talking about stuff for which I actually only have a little knowledge (though certainly have a reaction about or an emotion). Therefore, I am not adding anything of value.

Here is one interesting article amongst many. I believe it shows the pitfalls in expressing any view in any disagreement.

https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/stop-saying-virtue-signalling

Needless to say I will stick more to what I know about now (about 3 subjects)! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, T said:

I expect Germany benefits from more ICU specialists so not just Ventilators but specialists where as UK it was all hands to the deck. A mixture of prudent culture to risk, more effective mix of public and private healthcare and more localised control. 
 

However you look at it UK has one of the worst health and economic responses and that urgently needs to be analysed and addressed rather than ignored denied and deflected from. The UK appears to have fundamental structural problems that need to be addressed. 

I tend to agree with this - we have done badly both on Covid 'deaths' and economically too.  In the relegation spots for both.

At the start - we should of been well placed for a top 6 finish.

If we were talking football the manager would of been sacked long ago.

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If you know anyone who is rushing to get back from France due to the change in the quarantine rules I've got some important information to share.

The ferry port is very busy, if you can't get on a ferry head into Calais town centre and find the Happy Smuggler Bar, ask for Pierre, he'll be wearing a beret, he can get you on a rubber dinghy crossing.

If/when you make it to the English coast ask the first person you see to let Nigel know you've made it to England and would like to be taken to a 4* hotel and then onto a guided tour of Anfield.

Good luck.

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Let's hope it all turns out OK, KG 👍

 

Thanks MY.

The system is baffling though.

My sister in law, who could have been the source, has been told to quarantine but doesn't have to test! Why not? How would it harm to test her?

My niece who lives in Altea has been told her husband and her should test but my nephew who lives in Benidorm doesn't have to. All had contact with my Brother in law and may be asymptomatic.

My Brother in law has been isolated but they have turned the AC off for his room in case it spreads.

It is all very confusing.

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5 hours ago, sonyc said:

I think it's a fascinating subject (virtue signalling) and I've been reading quite a bit over the last day. You've done me a big favour VW (and realise it wasn't aimed my way) in that the comment has put up a big mirror in front of me, so to speak. And I've not liked what I've seen.

Putting one's views forward is always a risk because you state your side of the fence. And I've realised I am probably talking about stuff for which I actually only have a little knowledge (though certainly have a reaction about or an emotion). Therefore, I am not adding anything of value.

Here is one interesting article amongst many. I believe it shows the pitfalls in expressing any view in any disagreement.

https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/stop-saying-virtue-signalling

Needless to say I will stick more to what I know about now (about 3 subjects)! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well you have certainly done some research, having used the phrase on only one occasion I hadn’t expected such a reaction, particularly from someone who it clearly wasn’t aimed at. Having read your link and the comments following it, my eyes have been opened somewhat so thanks for that. I suspect I have misused the term, my  intention was to draw attention to the position taken by an individual who takes high moral ground, lectures others and falsely attributes negative views and beliefs to them, whilst at the very same time mocking those who take action to try and protect their fellows and reduce the spread of an infection, actions which in fact show the highest integrity and regard for the health of our communities. I clearly messed up but i hope you get my point.

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1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

Thanks MY.

The system is baffling though.

My sister in law, who could have been the source, has been told to quarantine but doesn't have to test! Why not? How would it harm to test her?

My niece who lives in Altea has been told her husband and her should test but my nephew who lives in Benidorm doesn't have to. All had contact with my Brother in law and may be asymptomatic.

My Brother in law has been isolated but they have turned the AC off for his room in case it spreads.

It is all very confusing.

Yes, that does sound strange doesn't it.

I haven't kept in touch with the system in Spain so much lately, do you know if they are allowed to just go and have a free test anyway. That would seem to make sense and is something I would certainly do in their position if it was possible.

I got back from Amsterdam yesterday afternoon so am very relieved I won't have to self-isolate, just beat it 🙂

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On 12/08/2020 at 19:08, ricardo said:

The PHE method would have you as a Covid death if you ever tested positive this year and then lived for another 50 years. Obviously nonsensical.

I dont disagree with this and I do believe that if we are too look around for best practice it must be possible to make comparisons. However, the new rules require deaths to be within 28 days of the first positive test. This doesn't seem quite right either! 

More reason to go with the ONS figures for the accurate position and the PHE ones for international comparisons 

 

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3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I dont disagree with this and I do believe that if we are too look around for best practice it must be possible to make comparisons. However, the new rules require deaths to be within 28 days of the first positive test. This doesn't seem quite right either! 

More reason to go with the ONS figures for the accurate position and the PHE ones for international comparisons 

 

The 28 day rule is the international standard. 

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23 hours ago, Van wink said:

5.2. You will be required to comply with the applicable local policies of each Trust you work with.“

s can be found here  - hand crank has just cut and pasted from

file:///C:/Users/mrjug/AppData/Local/Temp/FW%20Registration%20Document%20April%202013%20FINAL.pdf

Date: 2nd April 2013

you can be rather dim at times Herman, and naive KG, as the person misrepresenting what you said is the same one posting this cut and paste job .... hand crank

I have not added hand cranks full post p save space, but some might find it odd that the NHS is emailing a 7 year old contract to someone i France where they are required to detach part of it and return ps I am sure BB will be along soon to explain it or RTB will appear to accuse me of stealing so as to distract from the post 😅

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22 minutes ago, Bill said:

s can be found here  - hand crank has just cut and pasted from

file:///C:/Users/mrjug/AppData/Local/Temp/FW%20Registration%20Document%20April%202013%20FINAL.pdf

Date: 2nd April 2013

you can be rather dim at times Herman, and naive KG, as the person misrepresenting what you said is the same one posting this cut and paste job .... hand crank

I have not added hand cranks full post p save space, but some might find it odd that the NHS is emailing a 7 year old contract to someone i France where they are required to detach part of it and return ps I am sure BB will be along soon to explain it or RTB will appear to accuse me of stealing so as to distract from the post 😅

You are a sad old chap Bill. 

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

You are a sad old chap Bill. 

neither old (50s) nor sad (comedy writer)

and certainly not someone who cannot see through your all too obvious lies

...... they just keep piling up. don't they 😁

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4 minutes ago, Bill said:

neither old (50s) nor sad (comedy writer)

and certainly not someone who cannot see through your all too obvious lies

...... they just keep piling up. don't they 😁

I could blow your claims out of the water any time I choose Billy, but you’re not worth it and don’t deserve it 👍

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