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6 hours ago, Surfer said:

Yes the data is here https://covidtracking.com/data.  New York State looks like this - it's almost as if it's a different country. As you can see from the dotted line, their testing has stayed well above the US average even though new cases per million have fallen away. Fall off in New York and New England states is a big factor in why the US curves look the way they do, offsetting recent big increases in the South and West. 

As the Governor of New York said "it's like nobody learned anything from our experience"  - sounds rather familiar eh? 

Their New tests and New cases per day data puts the lie to the President's comment we only have more cases because we do more tests. While it is true that you won't be able to confirm that you have infected people in your population if you don't do any tests to find out, New York proves that if you continue to do a lot of testing does not mean that your case rate can't also fall away dramatically. I think the mayor of New York said this week that their test positivity rate was now around 1%, and so schools could reopen and remain open as long as it stayed under a 2% threshold. 

Once more we need to look to the media to dig deeper and get past the stupid headlines like "California now has the worst outbreak of Covid 19 in America" Well based on raw case count yes it does, but if you look at cases per million it's right at the US average. The question they should be asking is - why is testing falling off in states like Florida and Texas? How did New York contain the pandemic and what lessons can the State and Federal Governments learn from that?.... all too hard apparently for reporters to actually report on, so we will very likely continue with this fiasco for months to come. 

New York.jpg

That's great thanks.  I'm not too up on US actions but I understand that the NY approach is quite like ours so the fact that the situation is improving is good news for us

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The teacher's union are dragging their heels on re-opening all schools by September. They have submitted a 25 page ransom note with 200 demands before they will allow classes. Demands such as bins should have kids. If you bin doesn't have a lid then the school won't open. Time to sack those that refuse to work. 

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1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said:

The teacher's union are dragging their heels on re-opening all schools by September. They have submitted a 25 page ransom note with 200 demands before they will allow classes. Demands such as bins should have kids. If you bin doesn't have a lid then the school won't open. Time to sack those that refuse to work. 

More true to say that Johnson/Cummings doesn't have a strategy for opening the schools safely beyond crossing their fingers and hoping not too many people dies as a result.

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34 minutes ago, BigFish said:

More true to say that Johnson/Cummings doesn't have a strategy for opening the schools safely beyond crossing their fingers and hoping not too many people dies as a result.

Your leader sent his kids back to school at the height of the outbreak 🤔

 

😜

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Honestly a bit stuck in the middle with all this covid talk. Been looking at Swedens experience recently and how with help from the t cells immunity, its very much on the wane there after no lockdown and no mask wearing. You then look at other places that had more drastic measures that are struggling.

Seems to me that we may actually be okay to be back to pretty much normal (Sweden levels) if we just have some decent surveillance to track and break up the clusters that appear and try encourage more outdoor things and non invasive measures. Masks in close settings like on public transport seem sensible but outside in a park or on the beach just seems like overkill.

If it does see a sustained increase then I really don't see a March/April style chaotic style outbreak since a lot has changed since then. Are we still trying to "flatten the curve" or are we on to "zero covid" now?

I have 1 side of the family who are happy to go on holiday with us to Wales and do some socialising within reason though not strictly abide by the rules and another side that won't walk in the park with us as "7 is too many and against the rules..." I think that maybe they just don't like us 😆. Been plenty of moaning about mask wearing while we've been away as well...

As if this country wasn't tribal enough with recent politics, I can see it getting so much worse in the coming months when unemployment really bites, a vaccine will likely become available and we'll know whether there is a "2nd wave" (or to be more correct, a resurgence of the first wave that was still lingering). No doubt it will all be "the other sides fault" as always!

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6 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

The teacher's union are dragging their heels on re-opening all schools by September. They have submitted a 25 page ransom note with 200 demands before they will allow classes. Demands such as bins should have kids. If you bin doesn't have a lid then the school won't open. Time to sack those that refuse to work. 

Good idea Einstein. Sack the teachers that won't work then don't have enough teachers to reopen the schools. 🤣

The government has literally had months to get the schools in a fit and safe state to reopen. The fact that we are still questioning if it is OK is not good. 

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Latest ONS data show total deaths running below long term average for the seventh week running.

Just over 2 percent of certificates mention Covid as a factor.

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8 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Honestly a bit stuck in the middle with all this covid talk. Been looking at Swedens experience recently and how with help from the t cells immunity, its very much on the wane there after no lockdown and no mask wearing. You then look at other places that had more drastic measures that are struggling.

Seems to me that we may actually be okay to be back to pretty much normal (Sweden levels) if we just have some decent surveillance to track and break up the clusters that appear and try encourage more outdoor things and non invasive measures. Masks in close settings like on public transport seem sensible but outside in a park or on the beach just seems like overkill.

I think I am on the same page as you. 

 Sweden is undoubtedly in a good place now.  Whether it was worth it is a matter of debate but worst fears have not materialised / were suppressed during summer and we would be foolish not to give careful thought to their experience. 

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Why is Sweden still being lauded as an example to follow? 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Herman said:

Why is Sweden still being lauded as an example to follow? 

They followed a different path, no lockdown, no school closures etc, went for herd immunity. They were heavily criticised early on but now seem to be the poster boys.

Those who locked down quickly had fewer early caualties but now face more problems when it is eased ( Australia etc).

Germany 1200 new cases yesterday, Spain 1500. 

 

 

 

Edited by ricardo

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31 minutes ago, Herman said:

Why is Sweden still being lauded as an example to follow? 

I'm not talking about their decision to impose only light measures at the start.  The wisdom of that decision will be known only after the vaccine has had the desired effect.

However, we would be foolish not to look at what is going on elsewhere and the Swedes are now in a situation where cases and deaths are falling whilst almost everywhere else in Europe the virus is progressing. We need to be asking what they are doing and what they have done.

 

 

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

They followed a different path, no lockdown, no school closures etc, went for herd immunity. They were heavily criticised early on but now seem to be the poster boys.

Those who locked down quickly had fewer early caualties but now face more problems when it is eased ( Australia etc).

Germany 1200 new cases yesterday, Spain 1500. 

 

 

 

This is a fascinating study atm,  there is no right or wrong and as has been said many times success or failure needs to be judged when it’s all over. If a successful  vaccine is found then I can only assume that those countries like NZ who were able to pretty much wipe the virus out, although very vulnerable atm will be saved by the vaccine and overall will have minimal deaths compared to the likes of the U.K. If the vaccine is slow to come however they could still find themselves in serious trouble.

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Putin has sorted it.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8615179/Russia-registers-virus-vaccine-Putins-daughter-given-it.html

Russia announces world's first coronavirus vaccine, which offers 'two years' immunity': Putin declares victory in race to find a jab - despite global scepticism - and reveals one of his own daughters has already been inoculated with 'Sputnik V'

And he's pulled a 'John Gummer' out of the bag. 😀

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Posted (edited)

The comparison for Sweden is with its nordic neighbours - similar people, mind set and way of life. So far it's not that favourable.

You just can not compare with for instance the UK. What would of happened in the UK if we had carried on with a light touch 'non' lockdown aka 'herd immunity' approach -  perhaps the 250K deaths?  Then again no doubt the economy would be in a better place now. You could argue that Trump went down the 'Swedish' model ....

The issue for Sweden is what will now happen when they return from their summer retreats? Will the supposed 'herd immunity' prove illusionary etc. Will an effective vaccine arrive to make all herd immunity sacrifices worthwhile with hindsight?

Edited by Yellow Fever
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Posted (edited)

New Zealand quick to act. Four new cases in the same household in Auckland and the place, well over a million population, is locked down until Friday at least.

And she is accused of being too far left!

Edited by keelansgrandad

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33 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The comparison for Sweden is with its nordic neighbours - similar people, mind set and way of life. So far it's not that favourable.

You just can not compare with for instance the UK. What would of happened in the UK if we had carried on with a light touch 'non' lockdown aka 'herd immunity' approach -  perhaps the 250K deaths?  Then again no doubt the economy would be in a better place now. You could argue that Trump went down the 'Swedish' model ....

The issue for Sweden is what will now happen when they return from their summer retreats? Will the supposed 'herd immunity' prove illusionary etc. Will an effective vaccine arrive to make all herd immunity sacrifices worthwhile with hindsight?

I dont think anyone is drawing conclusions as to what the best approach was just yet.  There is far too little data and far too long to go for that to be done. Equally though they are probably in a much stronger position now than their neighbours.

Hopefully in turns out that hard lockdown is proved in retrospect to have been the best strategy as this means that the global economy was resilient and the vaccine arrived early!

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5 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I dont think anyone is drawing conclusions as to what the best approach was just yet.  There is far too little data and far too long to go for that to be done. Equally though they are probably in a much stronger position now than their neighbours.

Hopefully in turns out that hard lockdown is proved in retrospect to have been the best strategy as this means that the global economy was resilient and the vaccine arrived early!

Vaccine already arrived in Russia 😁

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Technical difficulties with the Gov.uk site so no update today.

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16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Technical difficulties with the Gov.uk site so no update today.

+1148 today (1400 in France & c.3500 Spain)

 

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

+1148 today (1400 in France & c.3500 Spain)

 

Worrying.  Hopefully though we'll see local lockdoewns being reflected in the stats soon, or do peopl think that the rise is despite these?

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10 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not talking about their decision to impose only light measures at the start.  The wisdom of that decision will be known only after the vaccine has had the desired effect.

However, we would be foolish not to look at what is going on elsewhere and the Swedes are now in a situation where cases and deaths are falling whilst almost everywhere else in Europe the virus is progressing. We need to be asking what they are doing and what they have done.

 

 

Look what I shared: What we can learn from the Swedish paradox - UnHerd https://unherd.com/2020/08/why-sweden-is-different-when-it-comes-to-covid/

 

A view here on Sweden and their approach / culture. It explains Tegnell well I think.

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3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Worrying.  Hopefully though we'll see local lockdoewns being reflected in the stats soon, or do peopl think that the rise is despite these?

Oldham muted to being the next to have a more draconian lockdown.

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8 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

Putin has sorted it.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8615179/Russia-registers-virus-vaccine-Putins-daughter-given-it.html

Russia announces world's first coronavirus vaccine, which offers 'two years' immunity': Putin declares victory in race to find a jab - despite global scepticism - and reveals one of his own daughters has already been inoculated with 'Sputnik V'

And he's pulled a 'John Gummer' out of the bag. 😀

It has and those that read the and contribute to the ‘ Come On Sarah ‘ will see the Russian vaccine does exactly what we already know Oxfords does, ie you need 2 doses, 75 % of those given the vaccine have a high temperature after the first jab, 78 people were involved in the phase 1 trial and Oxford is partly a vaccine already in use so pretty much proved to be safe. Many reports from the foreign press had Russia’s vaccine as likely to be the Oxford one a couple of weeks ago. This is the U.K. press catching up with 2 week old news.

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11 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Oldham muted to being the next to have a more draconian lockdown.

Yep. Today’s figures looking a bit grim.

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8 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

New Zealand quick to act. Four new cases in the same household in Auckland and the place, well over a million population, is locked down until Friday at least.

And she is accused of being too far left!

Managing a global pandemic doesn't need one to be either left or right, though does it?  Just need to be competent and get on with it, and Jacinda seems to be a very competent lady so kudos to her. Our lot in charge seem to be at the other end of the competence spectrum, so they will get no praise from me.

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30 minutes ago, Well b back said:

It has and those that read the and contribute to the ‘ Come On Sarah ‘ will see the Russian vaccine does exactly what we already know Oxfords does, ie you need 2 doses, 75 % of those given the vaccine have a high temperature after the first jab, 78 people were involved in the phase 1 trial and Oxford is partly a vaccine already in use so pretty much proved to be safe. Many reports from the foreign press had Russia’s vaccine as likely to be the Oxford one a couple of weeks ago. This is the U.K. press catching up with 2 week old news.

Yes, read that post on the V thread. And whatever is involved or how it's come about, you just hope it's successful. I think we may be hearing a lot more about this very soon. Interesting to see how the politics gets played out.

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