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37 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Success would be if track and trace demonstrably reduced community transmission measured in part through the R rate, enabled the country to get operational and enabled targeted action to deal with outbreaks quickly when they occured.

It has failed on all three counts.

It certainly has, and its been a spectacular failure, not just on health grounds, but even more so on financial grounds - the government has spent billions with private companies who have absolutely no experience or track (no pun intended ūüėÄ) record in this area for reasons about which we can only speculate - although they seem pretty obvious as they follow a well established pattern for this government.

Whatever the reasons, the result has been a hugely expensive shambles of a system which is performing so badly than in a number of the worst (highest infection rate) areas local councils are now creating their own teams to try and plug the gaps - which is of course is precisely the way the system should have built in the first place and would have been if the control freaks in Westminister had for once overcome their obsession with centralising everything and listened to advice from the experts. They could even have broken the habit of a lifetime, overcome their arrogance and taken a look at what was working well elsewhere - e.g. Germany if they wanted an example close to home.

We don't have a world beating system no matter how many times the idiot Johnson says so, we have another home grown, self inflicted injury.

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CM

"a system which is performing so badly than in a number of the worst (highest infection rate) areas local councils are now creating their own teams to try and plug the gaps - "

I'm not happy with the way centralised track and trace works, the idea is misconceived. However in our efforts to chastise lets keep to the facts, Local Councils should have produced local outbreak plans sometime ago, for those that were interested I posted the link to the Norfolk plan, so the idea of local councils being involved isn't something that has just happened, it has been part of the plan from very early on. The problem has been the lack of transfer of data from the central system to the local one. Some has been getting through and local investigations have created their own data, but the detail from the centre has been nowhere near enough. It almost feels like Public Health England want to keep the baby to themselves, I'll rephrase that, it in my view is the case that Public Health England have been reluctant to share data. It does look as if this problem is now being resolved which should make for much better success rates and a better system. This is far too late in the process but at least things seem to be getting sorted before the pandemic takes off again in the UK, which imo it will. A decent test T and T system wont prevent this imo, but it should limit the scale.

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10 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

You are starting with a conclusion and working backwards, which is a bit naughty

I don't disagree with most of your analysis but the specific thing I was enquiring about was whether or not VWs pointless labour was a sign that the system is broken.  I am not sure we have enough data to really tell.

To the more general question on track and trace rising infections is a sign of failure if your expectation was of a panacea.  If not then success or failure is measured not by counting Infections but by estimating how many infections were averted. Quite honestly I don't know how well it is doing as I have no way of making this estimate.

 

I think you are the one guilty of clutching a bit at straws there BB.

Obviously we all accept post lock down the odd local flare-up would occur. But if TT & isolate was working effectively it should (must) be capable of quickly controlling the outbreak and eliminating it. It's not, case are growing, generally almost everywhere. R > 1.

Conclusion has to be TTI in it's current form isn't fit/capable for purpose with the current level of lock down relaxation.

Action - Need to re-introduce lock down measures (i.e. pubs, restaurants) such that TTI can again become effective and R < 1. Alternatively need to beef up and make more effective TTI.

Yes it's yet another political failure either way.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

 

CM

"a system which is performing so badly than in a number of the worst (highest infection rate) areas local councils are now creating their own teams to try and plug the gaps - "

I'm not happy with the way centralised track and trace works, the idea is misconceived. However in our efforts to chastise lets keep to the facts, Local Councils should have produced local outbreak plans sometime ago, for those that were interested I posted the link to the Norfolk plan, so the idea of local councils being involved isn't something that has just happened, it has been part of the plan from very early on. The problem has been the lack of transfer of data from the central system to the local one. Some has been getting through and local investigations have created their own data, but the detail from the centre has been nowhere near enough. It almost feels like Public Health England want to keep the baby to themselves, I'll rephrase that, it in my view is the case that Public Health England have been reluctant to share data. It does look as if this problem is now being resolved which should make for much better success rates and a better system. This is far too late in the process but at least things seem to be getting sorted before the pandemic takes off again in the UK, which imo it will. A decent test T and T system wont prevent this imo, but it should limit the scale.

I don't think I have departed from the facts at all, of course local Councils produced their plans and in many cases they actively offered to implement the necessary track and trace systems in their area - as I posted months ago track and trace (albeit it for different infections) has been a standard process operated by local council public health departments for many years. I don't know how many made that offer but I know for a fact that my local council (large northern city) did and I believe several of the neighbouring councils did as well.

Trouble is at the time the government wasn't interested, there were no resources or cash made available to councils for this and then evenually, as we now know, the government awarded these massive contracts to private companies without the expertise and seemingly without any decent system specification of what was required - as you say yourself the data is locked inside some mickey mouse central system and not interfaced into the NHS systems, the council Public Health systems, and they don't even seem to be very good at contacting the individuals involved - I must admit that I've always assumed that this was simply the usual incompetence of the government but as time has gone I tend agree with you that it seems more and more as though the control freaks in Westminister simply don't want to share the data.

Maybe things are starting to change but I see little evidence of it to date. Hopefully you are right and that it will be a case of better late than never because all the ingredients for a resurgence of the infection in England appear to be in place.

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Posted (edited)

image

not much in our area in the last week.

Edited by ricardo

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image.png.68e2c437e9fcbfeec0d5282b357de019.png

New ONS data out today has found that last week an estimated 28,300 people in England had COVID-19. This represents 0.05% of the community population. Far from a second wave, it marks a fall from the previous week’s estimate of 0.07%.

Whereas testing data shows a mild uptick, the number of tests being carried out in the UK has also zoomed up, meaning this data could simply be showing a reduction. It’s worth reading this explanation of why cases are not in fact rising, by the director of Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Carl Heneghan. The new ONS number seem to support his research…

 

 

spacer.png

 

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Jools loves a comedy web site, usually Guido.

The link in his post concludes

Disclaimer: the article has not been peer-reviewed; it should not replace individual clinical judgement, and the sources cited should be checked. The views expressed in this commentary represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the host institution, the NHS, the NIHR, or the Department of Health and Social Care. The views are not a substitute for professional medical advice.

 

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14 hours ago, Aggy said:

Wasn’t the supposedly proposed government scheme you mentioned about identifying vulnerable people and protecting them? What was the issue with it? 
 

As for not categorising - it‚Äôs a national pandemic and one ‚Äėcategory‚Äô is massively more at risk than another. Why would you not categorise people so you can identify the most at risk and protect them? When/if a vaccine is developed, I hope those categorised as most vulnerable get vaccines before fit and healthy 30 year olds. Or are you suggesting that shouldn‚Äôt be the case?

The Government scheme is for 50 upwards to be told to stay at home. That is supposed to be including the vulnerable as well. And you just cannot categorise someone 50+ as more likely.

No-one can say for certain, the scientists argue amongst themselves, what the virus can or cannot do. Statistics say the younger you are the less likely to suffer from it but not carrying it. 

We have seen and heard different ways to attack the virus. And the most sensible one is stop the transmission and check those who have had it. Allowing the greater part of the population to wander around will not stop transmission.

But we hold out hope that with new cases apparently diminishing, there may not be a need to lockdown anyone.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think you are the one guilty of clutching a bit at straws there BB.

Obviously we all accept post lock down the odd local flare-up would occur. But if TT & isolate was working effectively it should (must) be capable of quickly controlling the outbreak and eliminating it. It's not, case are growing, generally almost everywhere. R > 1.

Conclusion has to be TTI in it's current form isn't fit/capable for purpose with the current level of lock down relaxation.

Action - Need to re-introduce lock down measures (i.e. pubs, restaurants) such that TTI can again become effective and R < 1. Alternatively need to beef up and make more effective TTI.

Yes it's yet another political failure either way.

 

 

If T&T was working as well as we would like it would be eliminating the disease, I agree. But what we would like and what is realistically possible are different.

There is much more to getting rid of this disease than contact tracing.  Its a big part for sure (I have posted before that I suspecy it as being a big part of why Germany and UK are/were on different trajectories) but its not the be all and end all. You could speak to100% of possible contacts and still not control the disease if they cannot or will not stay away from others.

I am not saying that the scheme is a success or failure. I am saying that the data is insufficient to draw either conclusion.I also say that it is dangerous to condemn it and require reform if it is actually doing quite well. That doesn't, of course, mean that it is beyond scrutiny, quite the opposite in fact. It just means that our biases habe done their job in flagging this up but must take a back seat.

It does sound inefficient if the anecdotal evidence of operators standing idle is true on an aggregate basis, but perhaps it is better to be inefficient than overstretched.

And of course there is no evidence that infection is currently increasing on a nationwide basis according to the ONS, but that is another matter...

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The Government scheme is for 50 upwards to be told to stay at home. That is supposed to be including the vulnerable as well. And you just cannot categorise someone 50+ as more likely.

No-one can say for certain, the scientists argue amongst themselves, what the virus can or cannot do. Statistics say the younger you are the less likely to suffer from it but not carrying it. 

We have seen and heard different ways to attack the virus. And the most sensible one is stop the transmission and check those who have had it. Allowing the greater part of the population to wander around will not stop transmission.

But we hold out hope that with new cases apparently diminishing, there may not be a need to lockdown anyone.

I wouldnt argue with most of that. If we want to see this thing off this side of a vaccine the only way to do it is to stop evwryone and anyone leaving their house. Even if we don't achieve elimination (we wouldn't) we will reduce transmission.

Cruel as it sounds though the question is can we afford to do this?  The answer from every part of the world is 'no' and hence we are all moving to the swedish model.

This model means those in greatest risk taking the most measures.  Whether we like it or not as we get older that risk increases, every graph tells us this (although admittedly the risk to the 50ish group doesn’t appear to be that elevated when compared with older cohorts).

Edited by Barbe bleu

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42 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

If T&T was working as well as we would like it would be eliminating the disease, I agree. But what we would like and what is realistically possible are different.

There is much more to getting rid of this disease than contact tracing.  Its a big part for sure (I have posted before that I suspecy it as being a big part of why Germany and UK are/were on different trajectories) but its not the be all and end all. You could speak to100% of possible contacts and still not control the disease if they cannot or will not stay away from others.

I am not saying that the scheme is a success or failure. I am saying that the data is insufficient to draw either conclusion.I also say that it is dangerous to condemn it and require reform if it is actually doing quite well. That doesn't, of course, mean that it is beyond scrutiny, quite the opposite in fact. It just means that our biases habe done their job in flagging this up but must take a back seat.

It does sound inefficient if the anecdotal evidence of operators standing idle is true on an aggregate basis, but perhaps it is better to be inefficient than overstretched.

And of course there is no evidence that infection is currently increasing on a nationwide basis according to the ONS, but that is another matter...

 

 

ONS data encouraging today, wide margin of error of course. T and T is clearly doing a job, it’s not getting to everyone but a hell of a lot of people have been contacted. This will be having a significant effect in reducing spread, my worry is that it’s not enough. I’ve posted below some stats from the weekly digest we are sent.

NHS Test and Trace Stats
 
Latest NHS Test and Trace stats show the service continues to break chains of transmission.
  • Almost a quarter of a million people have now been reached by NHS Test and Trace
  • More than 79% of those that test positive are reached and asked for their contacts
  • Dedicated contact tracing teams are being rolled out in areas of high prevalence to work in partnership with local health protection teams
Statistics from the ninth week (23 to 29 July) of operation of NHS Test and Trace published todayshow the service is consistently reaching the majority of those testing positive and their contacts, and delivering rapid testing at scale. 
 
Data from the ninth week of operation (23 to 29 July) of NHS Test and Trace shows that: 
  • 79.4% (3,688) of the people who had tested positive for coronavirus and were transferred to NHS Test and Trace were reached by our contact tracers and asked to share details of their close contacts. This compares to 82.2% in the previous week.
  • 72.4% (13,866) of close contacts were reached and advised to self-isolate. This compares to 76.2% in the previous week. Where contact details were provided, NHS Test and Trace reached 82.4%. This compares to 84.8% in the previous weekYour

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2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

The Government scheme is for 50 upwards to be told to stay at home. That is supposed to be including the vulnerable as well. And you just cannot categorise someone 50+ as more likely.

 

My confusion is why you disparagingly used the phrase ‚Äúcivil liberties over health eh‚ÄĚ when discussing others,¬†but then seem to have a problem with the civil liberties of over 50s being infringed.¬†

The stats clearly show that on average over fifties are at greater risk than under fifties.

You seem to suggest it’s unfair for all over-fifties to be lumped into the same category, because not all over fifties are at high risk. Yet you have no problem with young healthy people being lumped in the same category as far more at risk people, despite young healthy people being at extremely low risk. 

(Ps I said months ago that there are serious ethical issues with allowing some sections of society to be released from lockdown but not others - I don‚Äôt for one second think all over fifties should be forced to stay at home. I‚Äôm just intrigued why it‚Äôs acceptable for over fifties to get annoyed about this, but people in their twenties and thirties¬†who have hardly any risk at all of dying from covid are expected to just suck it up, have their lives ruined, are called ‚Äúselfish and stupid‚ÄĚ for daring to say anything about it.)

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Posted (edited)

Has this government been able to hide (or cover over) decisions that ordinarily they wouldn't have made outside of a national health crisis? And for the Tory voters on this thread (or government supporters) what is your view? Do you think it's simply what all government's do (politicians being mendacious sorts kinds of arguments) or are there things that makes you feel uncomfortable. Or do you not notice or feel sensitive to it at all? If a Labour administration was in power right now and doing similar things would you feel annoyed or exercised?

Or is this article so one sided you ignore it out of hand?

My sense is that Covid 19 has facilitated all kinds of decisions that seem to follow so quickly one after another, enough to overwhelm any opportunity to challenge... And that is before you take into account their handling of the crisis.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/07/its-taken-just-12-months-for-boris-johnson-to-create-a-government-of-sleaze?

Edited by sonyc

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Jools said:

 

spacer.png

 

that bird has long flown, as far as you are concerned

Edited by Bill
  • Haha 1

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39 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Has this government been able to hide (or cover over) decisions that ordinarily they wouldn't have made outside of a national health crisis? And for the Tory voters on this thread (or government supporters) what is your view? Do you think it's simply what all government's do (politicians being mendacious sorts kinds of arguments) or are there things that makes you feel uncomfortable. Or do you not notice or feel sensitive to it at all? If a Labour administration was in power right now and doing similar things would you feel annoyed or exercised?

Or is this article so one sided you ignore it out of hand?

My sense is that Covid 19 has facilitated all kinds of decisions that seem to follow so quickly one after another, enough to overwhelm any opportunity to challenge... And that is before you take into account their handling of the crisis.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/07/its-taken-just-12-months-for-boris-johnson-to-create-a-government-of-sleaze?

The Brexiteers don’t care about jobs or lives so very much doubt they care about corruption. Nationalism is all they care about. Little wonder UK has worst death rate in Europe with their attitude to other people. 

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The right wing racists continue to bleat in denial as if having one of the worst death records in the world is something to be proud of. 

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24 minutes ago, ricardo said:

An interesting chart to show who is testing.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day

And percentage of positives found.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed

Some rapid increases across Europe

Worrying.

 

I fear Germany may be heading for some problems Ricardo. Did you spot T earlier?

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I fear my questions encouraged the response. 

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27 minutes ago, ricardo said:

An interesting chart to show who is testing.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day

And percentage of positives found.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed

Some rapid increases across Europe

Worrying.

 

Our testing numbers I've noticed are about 4 times that of France.

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4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Our testing numbers I've noticed are about 4 times that of France.


Two times isn’t it? Still good to see.

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:


Two times isn’t it? Still good to see.

Thought I had seen c.70k for France over the last few days and 250k ish here daily. Might be wrong (source Worldometer site). Whatever, the UK is much more impressive in its testing than even 2 months ago. Unless that is, it's still tests 'delivered' or posted.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Thought I had seen c.70k for France over the last few days and 250k ish here daily. Might be wrong (source Worldometer site). Whatever, the UK is much more impressive in its testing than even 2 months ago. Unless that is, it's still tests 'delivered' or posted.

Yep fair play we have upped the testing regime significantly. I was going by Ricardo’s link, Uk tests around 2 per thousand, France about 1 per thousand.

Edited by Van wink

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45 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I fear Germany may be heading for some problems Ricardo. Did you spot T earlier?

ūüėČ

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43 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Our testing numbers I've noticed are about 4 times that of France.

Yes, the French positives now running at a much higher percentage of positives than us. The lack of serious testing may have led to a slow response to hotspots. The next few days will be interesting.

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8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Yes, the French positives now running at a much higher percentage of positives than us. The lack of serious testing may have led to a slow response to hotspots. The next few days will be interesting.

Quarantining returning holiday makers I reckon.

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38 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Quarantining returning holiday makers I reckon.

Very likely

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Has anybody seen any statistics from any country regarding numbers of cases versus numbers of hospital admissions ?

I posted a statement from 2 front-line Italian doctors about, I don't know, 6 weeks (maybe longer) ago in which they stated that the virus was losing it's effectiveness and infected people they were testing had far less "viral load" than had been seen at the height of the crisis in Italy.

I wondered whether that is true for other countries, and the fact that the number of cases rising may not be as bad as it initially  seems ??

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12 hours ago, Van wink said:

I fear Germany may be heading for some problems Ricardo. Did you spot T earlier?

VW do you seriously want to make a comparison?  I see the UK and German news daily. The contrast between the competence of Germany and the incompetence of the UK is a shocking contrast. Germany has has progressional test track and trace with clear communication and a plan for dealing with outbreaks since February. The UK still hasn’t. And for some reason one of the worst death records in the world in the UK is deemed acceptable. It is truly bizarre. 

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