Corona Virus main thread

[Aggy 752]

4 minutes ago, Aggy said:

So Bury, fewer than five new cases (cases not deaths) a day, was at such a risk of causing deaths that they couldn’t have properly introduced the rules there from even tomorrow at midnight giving people time to sort things out?

Also saw a tweet earlier from an mp (which I’m trying to re-find) which said the figures this was based on were known this morning. So agree with your comments BB - you’d have thought if they had this info this morning then local authorities should have at least had a heads up before announcement was made at 21:30.

[Bill 1,788]

"A pub at the centre of a major new coronavirus outbreak had punters packed into its garden like sardines, new video shows.

Drinkers can be seen standing shoulder to shoulder at the Crown and Anchor, in the Staffordshire town of Stone, in the shocking footage. The clip emerged as health chiefs revealed at least 10 people who had been there have since tested positive for Covid-19"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/stone-pub-coronavirus-outbreak-testing-crown-and-anchor-covid-19-a9645111.html

And the sanctions applied will be zilch, as elsewhere. Yet it is via activities like this that the virus has been spreading. Someone(s) was a carrier and so spread the infection just as they will be doing in pubs, restaurants and cafés up and down the country.

Which will be followed by workplaces - and care homes that have stated today that they have inadequate testing equipment - but they may have some coloured cloth if that helps.

 

meanwhile two friends head off to the fancy dress party - one as Alice Cooper and the other as a UK shopper

Edited July 30, 2020 by Bill

[Van wink 2,994]

8 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

If the data is telling the decision makers that most of th spread is within extended families and community groups meeting in houses surely the beat thing to do for everyone is to prevent people meeting in houses? 

I'm not sure thay I can see an awful lot wrong with this to be honest. Of course though I dont know what the data says...

From what’s being reported it appears that the data does indicate significant spread from meeting at peoples homes. Seems like a targeted response which is reasonable, certainly some form of clampdown was inevitable the way the figures were going in the region. 

[Herman 9,717]

The message isn't the problem. The messaging is God awful. 

[Aggy 752]

22 minutes ago, Herman said:

The message isn't the problem. The messaging is God awful. 

Don’t worry about that. We’re living in a country where rules restricting people’s ability to live their ordinary lives in a certain way are announced by four vague tweets at 21:30, 2.5 hours before they come into force, where even local MPs and city councils involved have to tweet to say “yeah we know no more than you”....And some people are fine with it.

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by Aggy

[Aggy 752]

40 minutes ago, Van wink said:

From what’s being reported it appears that the data does indicate significant spread from meeting at peoples homes. Seems like a targeted response which is reasonable, certainly some form of clampdown was inevitable the way the figures were going in the region. 

“The region”. Bury reporting fewer than five new cases yday (that’s a percentage of the population much lower than new cases in London). Yesterday before the announcement it was announced Bury’s infections were even lower than last week. Wigan has 7.6 cases per 100,000, again much lower than areas of London.

Rossendale had a rate of 4.2 per 100,000, putting it 153rd on the list of 315 local authorities. Yet it’s locked down.

It’s like locking down the whole of east anglia because there are 152 places with more coronavirus cases than Cambridge. 

[Van wink 2,994]

7 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Don’t worry about that. We’re living in a country where rules restricting people’s ability to live their ordinary lives in a certain way are announced by four vague tweets at 21:30, 2.5 hours before they come into force, where even local MPs and city councils involved have to tweet to say “yeah we know no more than you”....And some people are fine with it.

 

I don’t know if people are fine with it, I believe there is a press conference today to further explain. 
What is important is that measures seem to be being aimed at what has been identified as a significant cause of spread which I am fine with. Some of this data will have been collected through track and trace so for me it’s good to see that info being used. 
As for the “messaging” as Herman said, it’s awful and has to be done better, the messaging is as important as the message.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

 

It’s like locking down the whole of east anglia because there are 152 places with more coronavirus cases than Cambridge. 

It’s not locking down Aggy!  It’s being done to try and prevent locking down. 

 

[Aggy 752]

Just now, Van wink said:

It’s not locking down Aggy!  It’s being done to try and prevent locking down. 

 

Doesn’t really change the point - people in Rossendale can’t go and meet their loved ones despite the fact half the country has more cases per population than Rossendale. Likewise with Wigan and Bury that have decreased numbers of infections from last week. What’s the logic? They’re in vaguely the same area of the country as other areas that are worse?

[Aggy 752]

I also worry that by basing it purely on test numbers (with no correlating rise in deaths or admissions to hospitals) they risk actually lesser compliance.

It was mentioned that in Leicester before 18 June, there was one testing site and after that date there were seven. The number of cases increased as more testing sites open (deaths not so) and they’re in much stricter lockdown than the rest of the country. 

There are only 199 people in the whole of the north west in hospital with covid currently. And if you look at charts, those numbers were up at 3,000 and have gone down ever since - there’s no increase again. (Tried to link chart with new daily admissions.)

 

I fear they risk people just not bothering to get tested if they have mild to moderate infection. Get tested and see restrictions ramped up or stay at home quietly get over it and no worries.

 

edit: 199 current hospital admissions not 133 as originally stated.

Edited July 31, 2020 by Aggy

[Van wink 2,994]

14 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Doesn’t really change the point - people in Rossendale can’t go and meet their loved ones despite the fact half the country has more cases per population than Rossendale. Likewise with Wigan and Bury that have decreased numbers of infections from last week. What’s the logic? They’re in vaguely the same area of the country as other areas that are worse?

Will be interesting to get the answer to that if and when it comes out.

I’m encouraged by the fact that Andy Burnham spoke with all Council leaders yesterday and he is supportive of the action. When I have heard him speak on Covid in the past he has always taken a well measured approach. 

 

[sonyc 5,492]

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/north-west-of-england-local-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialSignIn

Here is the (clarified) guidance tweeted by my LA 30 minutes ago. 

[sonyc 5,492]

5 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Will be interesting to get the answer to that if and when it comes out.

I’m encouraged by the fact that Andy Burnham spoke with all Council leaders yesterday and he is supportive of the action. When I have heard him speak on Covid in the past he has always taken a well measured approach. 

 

He was consulted on the decision though so he knew beforehand VW

BTW Bradford supposedly had NO new cases yesterday.

I've said it before I'm convinced this decision was timed precisely because of Eid. And it explains their timing as they would have been scared of announcing it beforehand or discussing it because they felt they would have had a bad reaction (following recent fasting). I might be wrong. The messaging is pathetic though.

Edited July 31, 2020 by sonyc

[sonyc 5,492]

As intimated this is the reaction from lots of people from the community I live in. 

[Aggy 752]

5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

He was consulted on the decision though so he knew beforehand VW

BTW Bradford supposedly had NO new cases yesterday.

I've said it before I'm convinced this decision was timed precisely because of Eid. And it explains their timing as they would have been scared of announcing it beforehand or discussing it because they felt they would have had a bad reaction after the more recent fasting. I might be wrong. The messaging is pathetic though.

Twitter by and large would agree with you there. Johnson’s video message a few hours earlier, then drop it by twitter at 2130, run away stick your fingers in your ears, see how it all plays out and then retrospectively blame anyone who ignored your 2 hours notice (or confirm your quick action saved lives if nothing kicks off, despite the fact numbers were on the down in most - albeit not all - of these areas anyway). Classic Boris and co.

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, sonyc said:

He was consulted on the decision though so he knew beforehand VW

BTW Bradford supposedly had NO new cases yesterday.

I've said it before I'm convinced this decision was timed precisely because of Eid. And it explains their timing as they would have been scared of announcing it beforehand or discussing it because they felt they would have had a bad reaction (following recent fasting). I might be wrong. The messaging is pathetic though.

I suspect Eid will have been a factor.

[Aggy 752]

Have we seen the evidence showing it’s due to people visiting each other’s homes (as opposed to shops, pubs, cafes, restaurants, delayed introduction of masks being compulsory)? I may have missed it in my grumpiness last night...

[sonyc 5,492]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I suspect Eid will have been a factor.

100%. We had predicted it earlier in the week but felt there would have been some discussion on TV with a minister asking people to be safe. Thousands of folk celebrate with gifts and go from house to house with food always involved. 

4.5m people affected. It's as much about politics (economy) as health I'm afraid VW. Don't be fooled by these people for being genuine (not that you are, it's a general point).

Edited July 31, 2020 by sonyc

[Aggy 752]

22 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/north-west-of-england-local-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialSignIn

Here is the (clarified) guidance tweeted by my LA 30 minutes ago. 

So is it the case that meeting people in your home or garden is illegal but meeting them in restaurants is just ‘guidance’? The link says:

 

What will be illegal?

It will be illegal for people who do not live together to meet in a private home or garden, except for limited exceptions to be set out in law. You should not host or visit people you do not live with, unless they are in your support bubble. If you live in the affected areas, you should not visit someone’s home or garden regardless of whether this is in or outside of the restricted area.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

6 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Have we seen the evidence showing it’s due to people visiting each other’s homes (as opposed to shops, pubs, cafes, restaurants, delayed introduction of masks being compulsory)? I may have missed it in my grumpiness last night...

I don’t believe we have seen the evidence but It is the sort of info gathered by track and trace.

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, sonyc said:

100%. We had predicted it earlier in the week but felt there would have been some discussion on TV with a minister asking people to be safe. Thousands of folk celebrate with gifts and go from house to house with food always involved. 

4.5m people affected. It's as much about politics (economy) as health I'm afraid VW. Don't be fooled by these people for being genuine (not that you are, it's a general point).

It’s a hard choice, if you are presented with evidence that person to person spread is taking place and the data shows that the most common location for this is in the home, add in potential for vulnerability to a poor outcome from infection, what do you do?
Now of course the crucial word there is evidence, as Aggy raised, its not been seen as yet. All I do know is that Track and Trace will be providing more data than we were able to assemble during the early stages of the pandemic, albeit not complete.

Im only talking here about the action taken, as for the messaging and timing it’s very poor.

Edited July 31, 2020 by Van wink

[sonyc 5,492]

12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s a hard choice, if you are presented with evidence that person to person spread is taking place and the data shows that the most common location for this is in the home, add in potential for vulnerability to a poor outcome from infection, what do you do?
Now of course the crucial word there is evidence, as Aggy raised, its not been seen as yet. All I do know is that Track and Trace will be providing more data than we were able to assemble during the early stages of the pandemic, albeit not complete.

Im only talking here about the action taken, as for the messaging and timing it’s very poor.

Yes, agree. And...I  have been exercised about the messaging.

I've been appalled by Hancock and I've gone ....in a very linear way...from grudging respect for a hard job to have in a crisis, to sympathy for him having to contain all kinds of different emotions and being professional, to a strong dislike at his reactions to questions and his superior platitudes, to finally, not being able to stand either seeing him or hearing his voice.

I guess all my different responses and annoyance is proof I'm alive!

Edited July 31, 2020 by sonyc

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

I think the government has been stung by it laggardness and ineptitude at the start of the pandemic  - being too slow by at least a week if not two to lock down, the failing and then abandoned track and trace let alone PPE and care-home fiascos - all of which have cost tens of thousands of lives and only exacerbated the economic hit like Trump and the USA.  Hence they dare not dawdle or delay on any sign of further flare ups. Better to appear too strong than too weak etc. when the inquiry starts before an angry nation.

[ricardo 7,349]

The timing of these annoucements will never be perfect unless Goldilocks turns up.

[Barbe bleu 816]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

It’s a hard choice, if you are presented with evidence that person to person spread is taking place and the data shows that the most common location for this is in the home, add in potential for vulnerability to a poor outcome from infection, what do you do?
Now of course the crucial word there is evidence, as Aggy raised, its not been seen as yet. All I do know is that Track and Trace will be providing more data than we were able to assemble during the early stages of the pandemic, albeit not complete.

Im only talking here about the action taken, as for the messaging and timing it’s very poor.

I'm not going to criticise the timing as I do not know that the message could have got out any earlier. I am open to the idea of criticism but only of the facts support it.

As to the message. There was some ambiguity in the tweet but it does broadly reflect the advice we have now seen on here.

I would be surprised if Eid was not a large part of the decision  making process. 

 

 

[Herman 9,717]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The timing of these annoucements will never be perfect unless Goldilocks turns up.

What about clarity and planning? 

[sonyc 5,492]

8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The timing of these annoucements will never be perfect unless Goldilocks turns up.

Imagine you've just bought all your Christmas presents Ricardo and spent a bit on food and planned all your family arrangements. Then be told on the night before, you can't.

Middle England would be in uproar!

Then, perhaps for some Asian people, living 'up north'....ahhhh  f*ck it, let's announce it at 9.30pm the night before for a midnight start.

By the way, I don't expect many people living in Norfolk understand the enormity of this, because it's not part of their life. I'm saying this to excuse people because it's difficult to understand (and have lived up this way for 40 plus years and still I'm learning). It's not a message that has been planned or thought about, no sensitivity for constituents / voters. So much could have been done to prepare people. You don't make such a decision within an hour, you get the data to evidence it before. You don't make a decision affecting so many and make a decree with effect in 2.5 hours!

Just imagine if it was the whole of Norfolk in the last few hours of Christmas Eve. That is all I ask for the perspective in this announcement. 

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by sonyc

[Barbe bleu 816]

10 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Imagine you've just bought all your Christmas presents Ricardo and spent a bit on food and planned all your family arrangements. Then be told on the night before, you can't.

Middle England would be in uproar!

Then, perhaps for some Asian people, living 'up north'....ahhhh  f*ck it, let's announce it at 9.30pm the night before for a midnight start.

 

Its a big blow for sure but what is the alternative? 

What would you do if at 6pm yesterday you read a piece of analysis that showed that the biggest cause of the rising virus in the region was transmission within extended family groups in a home setting; that the virus was in the community in large numbers still and; that tomorrow would be like Eid for the virus....

 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

15 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Imagine you've just bought all your Christmas presents Ricardo and spent a bit on food and planned all your family arrangements. Then be told on the night before, you can't.

Middle England would be in uproar!

Then, perhaps for some Asian people, living 'up north'....ahhhh  f*ck it, let's announce it at 9.30pm the night before for a midnight start.

By the way, I don't expect many people living in Norfolk understand the enormity of this, because it's not part of their life. I'm saying this to excuse people because it's difficult to understand (and have lived up this way for 40 plus years and still I'm learning). It's not a message that has been planned or thought about, no sensitivity for constituents / voters. So much could have been done to prepare people. You don't make such a decision within an hour, you get the data to evidence it before. You don't make a decision affecting so many and make a decree with effect in 2.5 hours!

Just imagine if it was the whole of Norfolk in the last few hours of Christmas Eve. That is all I ask for the perspective in this announcement. 

 

I fully understand and appreciate the point but in many ways it's no different to the sudden quarantine of people returning from Spain (or come to that you or me if by misfortune we happened to be tracked and traced!).

And yes if need be I would cancel Christmas on the 24th if necessary at zero notice!

S h i t happens.

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

11 hours ago, Aggy said:

So Bury, fewer than five new cases (cases not deaths) a day, was at such a risk of causing deaths that they couldn’t have properly introduced the rules there from even tomorrow at midnight giving people time to sort things out?

I find it a little bit odd that those who were complaining that the first lockdown in March was implemented too late are now complaining that this lockdown is too early. 

It is almost like there is some agenda here