Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,380]

Also voting intention

 

[Herman 9,743]

48 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The explanation, it's the big open spaces in Scotland isn't it?

Not as the majority of Scots live in the cities.

[Bill 1,788]

Perhaps we could know whose polls these are

and add that on April 4th the Tories had a 22 point lead over Labour

which is now down to 6 points (in other polls)

shift another point nearer and it would be  hung Parliament

Edited July 18, 2020 by Bill

[Barbe bleu 818]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Too late its moving back to the government.

Its a human failing that we tend to judge an experience by the way it ended. As long as it ends well we'll forgive a hell of a lot.  For the majority this pandemic will end well and they will remember the days when 20 or 30 died and forget the ones where it was 900 or 1000. 

This will be true throughout the whole world. 

[Barbe bleu 818]

.

Edited July 18, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Herman 9,743]

8 hours ago, ricardo said:

Also voting intention

 

People don't pay attention. 

[Van wink 2,994]

10 hours ago, Aggy said:

I’m not so sure it explains why Scotland has fewer infections and deaths. It might be a part of it, but other reports suggest that fewer than ten per cent of covid deaths happen more than twenty eight days after a test, and half of those still had it when tested after/on death. So there’s probably a five per cent swing as a result of the English method of counting, but not enough alone to explain the differences between England and Scotland.  

Agreed, but what it may well help explain is the continuing and recent relatively high daily death numbers in England and particularly the zero figures recently reported in Scotland which will surely be influenced by the 28 day cut off. 

Edited July 19, 2020 by Van wink

[Herman 9,743]

Clear messaging and competent governance is the big, fat elephant in the room.

[Van wink 2,994]

58 minutes ago, Herman said:

People don't pay attention. 

They have short memories, hence the tendency for government historically to call an election when there is a bit of an upturn in the economy.

[ricardo 7,380]

9 hours ago, Bill said:

Perhaps we could know whose polls these are

and add that on April 4th the Tories had a 22 point lead over Labour

which is now down to 6 points (in other polls)

shift another point nearer and it would be  hung Parliament

The polls are the latest survey from Opinium. The company that got the last General Election almost spot on.

Yes, the Tories did have a bigger lead but it is noteable that the Tory vote is the same as at the GE. The only movement has been from LD and Green back to Labour. A revival of two party politics by the look of it.

[sonyc 5,508]

I would be amazed if some Tory voters have not been turned off by this administration due to the handling of the pandemic...Truly amazed that so many would remain loyal. Yet, I've been wrong before. 

There are the after effects of economic problems that are only just starting to appear now. With the expected no deal at the end of the year, problems for business will amplify and you can certainly forecast unemployment into the millions, perhaps surpassing the 3m from the Eighties in the next 2 years. You could also forecast considerable social unrest, again, like we experienced decades ago. 

I don't believe we are in for benign government or a happy country. Disadvantage and inequality is widening not improving. 

It's difficult to say which I'm more confident about, our footballing chances in the next year (think we may have a season like Stoke have just had) or the UK economic situation. I think I rate our prospects more! Jobs are being axed on a daily basis. 

We have to find our meaning and happiness in the everyday Ricardo. 

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2020 by sonyc

[ricardo 7,380]

29 minutes ago, sonyc said:

We have to find our meaning and happiness in the everyday Ricardo. 

 

 

 

I think some may have already found it, on this Forum sonyc.😁

 

[Barbe bleu 818]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

They have short memories, hence the tendency for government historically to call an election when there is a bit of an upturn in the economy.

Its not just a political thing, its evolutionary and applies to every experience we ever have. Politicians of all colours have just exploited it very successfully.

Edited July 19, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Barbe bleu 818]

3 hours ago, Herman said:

Clear messaging and competent governance is the big, fat elephant in the room.

According to the statistics posted above the big fat elephant in the room is what happened during the second week in May to get the level of support to drop so much.  

Anyone remember?

 

 

[sonyc 5,508]

4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

According to the statistics posted above the big fat elephant in the room is what happened during the second week in May to get the level of support to drop so much.  

Anyone remember?

 

 

You started a special thread to get us to talk about it more BB!

[sonyc 5,508]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

I think some may have already found it, on this Forum sonyc.😁

 

Haha, yes indeed. Plus art, music, reading, nature, friends and family, nice food as well though! Plenty to go at.

[Barbe bleu 818]

27 minutes ago, sonyc said:

You started a special thread to get us to talk about it more BB!

I considered that.  The news broke on 22 May and continued for about a week.  It didn't have much impact on approval levels.  

The big shifts are at lockdown, in the first week in April and then this.  If you can work out what happened at this time there might be a line of attack  open to opposition.  

 

[Van wink 2,994]

49 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

According to the statistics posted above the big fat elephant in the room is what happened during the second week in May to get the level of support to drop so much.  

Anyone remember?

 

 

But elephants never forget😁

[Herman 9,743]

I think this interesting study is what posters were trying to explain a couple of weeks ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/19/covid-19-impact-on-ethnic-minorities-linked-to-housing-and-air-pollution

[Bill 1,788]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

The polls are the latest survey from Opinium. The company that got the last General Election almost spot on.

Yes, the Tories did have a bigger lead but it is noteable that the Tory vote is the same as at the GE. The only movement has been from LD and Green back to Labour. A revival of two party politics by the look of it.

err, no

as your claims do not factor in the missing Brexit votes, or the fact that fact the Green Party is showing a higher poll rating than it's election result

it is not a return to two party politics, just that when the question is binary....... it tends to deliver a binary vote

 odd that 😉

[sonyc 5,508]

38 minutes ago, Herman said:

I think this interesting study is what posters were trying to explain a couple of weeks ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/19/covid-19-impact-on-ethnic-minorities-linked-to-housing-and-air-pollution

Indeed. It's why I was annoyed at the comment about BAME populations needing to be quarantined. I tried to explain. Often, even in those disadvantaged areas up to 70% of those populations are not BAME. (ref. 9th July)

[Herman 9,743]

You can try to explain that there are multiple reasons for why some things happen but some just want simple solutions to problems.

[Bill 1,788]

Another day, another u-turn

''The health secretary, Matt Hancock, has bowed to pressure from councils, which demanded full access to the names and data of people in their areas who tested positive for Covid-19, and those with whom they have been in contact, in another major government U-turn.

Local authorities and public health officials have been complaining for weeks that they are being hampered in efforts to combat and prevent local outbreaks by lack of access to “named patient data” which would allow them to get straight to the sources of local outbreaks.''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/18/matt-hancock-in-new-u-turn-on-coronavirus-testing-data

 

 

ps let's hope that helps hand crank and his sterlig efforts as a track and tracer

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

Another day, another u-turn

''The health secretary, Matt Hancock, has bowed to pressure from councils, which demanded full access to the names and data of people in their areas who tested positive for Covid-19, and those with whom they have been in contact, in another major government U-turn.

Local authorities and public health officials have been complaining for weeks that they are being hampered in efforts to combat and prevent local outbreaks by lack of access to “named patient data” which would allow them to get straight to the sources of local outbreaks.''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/18/matt-hancock-in-new-u-turn-on-coronavirus-testing-data

 

 

ps let's hope that helps hand crank and his sterlig efforts as a track and tracer

 

Will make no difference to national track and trace, thats the whole point Billy, its a welcome shift to local infection control teams.

[Bill 1,788]

6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Will make no difference to national track and trace, thats the whole point Billy, its a welcome shift to local infection control teams.

gosh, you don't say

however my posting the link was in the way of asking

why has it taken so long ?

and what has changed to cause that u-turn ?

 

(do try to keep up)

[sonyc 5,508]

Felt this was a thoughtful piece about how we might respond as a country emerging from the pandemic. Link inside too to the Barnett paper.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/19/britain-crossroads-dread-hope-politicians?

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

16 of us from our golf club go away for a long weekend every October. And we have been told the complex will be open.

But three have already said they will not be going because of the virus. So thats a measure of the uncertainty the exists.

[Bill 1,788]

Righties, a truly loony tune, sub species of the human race

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8538465/Hundreds-anti-mask-activists-march-Londons-Hyde-Park-wearing-plague-doctor-costumes.html

The same nut jobs in the US where there have been so many cases of the cranks believing that the virus was a hoax, and then dying

It's a given that whenever any crackpot theory gains traction, it is the righties who swallow it

 

[sonyc 5,508]

 Government admits that NHS Test and Trace programme is unlawful | WIRED UK https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nhs-test-and-trace-unlawful-data?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Wired+Awake&utm_campaign=Wired+Awake_2020-07-20&utm_content=Government+admits+that+NHS+Test+and+Trace+programme+is+unlawful&utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The Email (From WIRED) 200720&utm_content=Government admits that NHS Test and Trace programme is unlawful

Who would have believed this?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Sometimes rights have to come second when the welfare of the greater majority is concerned.

Maybe this virus is not enough of a mass killer to ignore the rights of people but I do wish that there wad a bit more savvy among people.

And surely as soon as you pick up a cell phone and switch it on, you are telling someone something about yourself.