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10 hours ago, Bill said:

The problem is, that in his first big test fat boy has failed so badly - and the excuses won't wash when so many supposedly 'lesser' countries have done so much better in protecting their citizens.

What will come out is fat boy's sheer laziness.

Missing for 12 days in Februar,y he had to be hauled back to London in 2013 after the riots had been running for days.  And then responded by spaffing money up the wall on useless water cannon.

Any attempt to bring back a lockdown will not be met with the same response this time. The trust in government and Johnson in particular has been seriously damaged in the past seven days.

Anyone out and about this week will see that the  social distancing guidance is being ignored, as is the idea that masks should be worn They about as rare now as a penny black stamp

With the confused advice about returning to school and work coupled with the likely need to extend the Brexit transition period the liar will struggle to waffle his way out of these next few months.

Johnson - Get him gone

 

I did ask you in my last post to 'please try and keep up' but in predictable left wing diatribe style you blunder on and now even can't get basic dates right! The London riots were in 2011 NOT 2013.  

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And Johnson was still on holiday. He likes his "little" breaks.

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36 minutes ago, Herman said:

"Common sense." The Darwin Awards are going to have a busy year.

 

Stupidity on a staggering scale.

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13 hours ago, Monty13 said:

By far the biggest mistake in my eyes was too much focus on the NHS and virtually nothing on care homes. We should have been wrapping them up in Bubble wrap not just waiting till the residents turned up in ICU.

Wasn't there some guidance to say that Care Home residents with suspected Covid would not be admitted and would automatically have a DNR in place.

If they (Johnson, Hancock et al) had explained their decision process and the impossible situation they felt they were in they could have carried the country with them. Instead, with their revisionism (Matt Hancock - "We put Care Homes at the centre of our policy from the middle of March") and outright lying they now appear to have blood on their hands.

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10 hours ago, Bill said:

Any attempt to bring back a lockdown will not be met with the same response this time. The trust in government and Johnson in particular has been seriously damaged in the past seven days.

Not everything you post I agree with, however this particular paragraph is bang on the money.

On one hand you have a Chancellor bringing in sensible and appropriate measures, (job retention scheme) on the other you have a complete fool of a PM backing a nobody in Cummings,  I fear that the billions in furlough money may have been "spaffed up the wall".

If we get a second wave and either a second lockdown, which is largely disregarded, or no lockdown, what was point of the first one?

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I think the problem might stem from people using their own "reasonable judgement" ahead. We know this means quite different things to different people.

This diagram summed  up a mixed messaging for me quite neatly:

IMG_20200531_103306.thumb.jpg.eae54267119a724c0ba36a4066b3280c.jpg

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I don't know what motivates politicians.....maybe it is just that desire for power, or wanting to make a difference.....but really the quality of what is happening in government seems awful - and there don't seem to be enough mechanisms in place to make the right things happen - or the knowledge and ability of the ministers to do very much right. 

It is almost as if everyone is working at cross purposes. Behind the scenes there is no joined up way of doing things - the civil service are not capable or do not have enough staff to do the things that government wants - and anyway in the government there is Cummings and others who want to dismatle the old structures where the civil service was basically running things and put something else in place based on the private sector running everything....but that has no real structure to it and is based on money and profit, not people and their needs.  To cap it all, you have an opposition that is worse than useless with bickering and infighting - goodness knows how many good people in the labour party have been shoved aside and replaced by nobodies - and it keeps happening and even with someone like Starmer in charge, he honestly has very little ability to work with in his party. 

So the way the government has led this crisis looks poor - and there are issues about it everywhere you look, from the apparent lack of decisive action at the beginning and the wishy washy attitude towards locking down people coming into the country.  It is patently obvious that they had no preparation in place - like the USA, everything was cut back, even though though there were strong arguments and warnings about the likelihood or even inevitability of a pandemic happening.

We desperately need a government that works more for people - now that is never going to be labour nor tory imo - big parties are an outdated concept - too big and unweildy to ever get anything to work in the kind of mixed society we have today.  Bill keeps saying "get boris out".........ok, fine, but what do you replace him with? If you vote labour or tory, you will just be on the same merry go round we have always been on in this country.  To vote labour or tory now means failure and stability and real progress will only come when you have a fair representatrion of what all people think, rather than the polarisation into two stupid and unworkable ideologies. 

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1 hour ago, Trevor Hockey's Beard said:

Wasn't there some guidance to say that Care Home residents with suspected Covid would not be admitted and would automatically have a DNR in place.

No. I do not think that is the case. 

 There was no official policy to this effect and from thenwiser reading I did on this it seems that decisions like this were delegated to clinicians in the usual manner.

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4 hours ago, Surfer said:

Back on topic - are you ******** kidding me? They could only trace FIVE cases a week? And I wonder how many they can track with the new system - could it be as many as 50? 

 

The full quotation is:

The minutes from Sage said:

     “Currently PHE can cope with five new cases a week (requiring isolation of 800 contacts).

    “Modelling suggests this capacity        could be increased to 50 new cases a week (8,000 contact isolations) but this assumption needs to be stress tested with PHE operational colleagues"

What we dont know is how many contact tracers PHE had so we don't really know how effective the extra resourcing will be.

To the wider politics of this an important question would be around the funding available to this part of PHE and how that impacted on staffing, resourcing and training.  If the department is largely unchanged since 2009 it's a little unfair to blame either Boris or the Tories. If it is changed since that time this would be on their watch but whose precisely would need to be determined.

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The full quotation is:

The minutes from Sage said:

     “Currently PHE can cope with five new cases a week (requiring isolation of 800 contacts).

    “Modelling suggests this capacity        could be increased to 50 new cases a week (8,000 contact isolations) but this assumption needs to be stress tested with PHE operational colleagues"

What we dont know is how many contact tracers PHE had so we don't really know how effective the extra resourcing will be.

To the wider politics of this an important question would be around the funding available to this part of PHE and how that impacted on staffing, resourcing and training.  If the department is largely unchanged since 2009 it's a little unfair to blame either Boris or the Tories. If it is changed since that time this would be on their watch but whose precisely would need to be determined.

This is a stark contrast to Raab saying they now have the capacity for 10,000 cases per day. Presuming that each case has 160 contacts each (going by the sage data above) then he appears to be saying that at full capacity (which we are pretty close to with 8000 new cases per day currently), tracers would need to contact a total of 1.6 million people per day. each individual tracer would on average be contacting 64 people per day. I've some experience with contacting large numbers of people in a day, when I've had to make bulk phone calls for school about trips etc.... I think 64 per day sounds like a lot, and that's without factoring in time for breaks, having days off etc. It also doesn't include people not picking up their phone, answerphone messages etc etc.

If you work on the basis that each day there will be 1/7 off at any one time (based on having one day off per week), it works out to an average of 75 calls per day for those on duty. If they're having 2 days off per week then it's 89 calls per day for those on duty.

If they're sending out text messages or emails then I guess it's possible, but if they're calling people manually then I'm not convinced it is.

However all that, assumes that an app is in place to provide the tracers with details of those who have been in contact. Without the app, and tracers having to manually work out all contacts then this is absolute nonsense, there's no way it's physically possible.

Raab said it was a "delicate and dangerous moment" but that the testing and tracing mechanism which was in place would keep the pressure down on the virus.

He said it had been operational since Thursday with 25,000 tracers and the ability to track 10,000 cases a day.

Andrew Marr pointed out to him that there were more than 8,000 new cases a day currently, which meant this was "on the edge".

Raab was not able to give a figure for the number of people traced so far.

"We have got the ability for 10,000 cases to track all the contacts they have had and that system is up and running."

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, sonyc said:

Reading a lot about the new T and T system that is being implemented to control the virus and this view seems very representative. For those who do not wish to read, in a nutshell, the training is of very poor quality, put together with a considerable lack of depth and breadth (i.e. quickly) with little guidance and yet trainees are keen and enthusiastic to learn (at the start). Finally, the IT system works at best intermittently.

 

Why I quit working on Boris Johnson's ‘world-beating' test-and-tracing system

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown?

Not sure that the capacity Raab spoke about this morning is achievable because the system simply is not fully in place. Other stories running the same theme this morning in the Sunday papers. Copying link again.

Ps. The word "system" is also not credible 

Edited by sonyc
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18 minutes ago, kick it off said:

This is a stark contrast to Raab saying they now have the capacity for 10,000 cases per day. Presuming that each case has 160 contacts each (going by the sage data above) then he appears to be saying that at full capacity (which we are pretty close to with 8000 new cases per day currently), tracers would need to contact a total of 1.6 million people per day. 

You are working on the assumption that the 8000 new infections are unrelated. This wont be the case and you'll probably find that there is a big overlap in contacts.  I suspect that outside of institutional settings where contact tracing should be much easier the vast majority of contacts in a socially distant world will be within a household 

The big question for me is will we get  infections down to a reasonable level before public transport use explodes and london gets back up and running

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Is "herd immunity" still secret government policy and they are hiding it behind a veneer of incompetence?

Are they seriously incompetent and we are going to get "herd immunity" whether we like it or not?

Asking as we have had an age and still have a high level of professional people and companies out there that could have got track and trace up to a quality level standard.

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The public won’t trust the government and Johnson this time if they try to re-tighten lockdown conditions.

Maybe but it is a kick to the gonads for our leftie pals that after this so called fiasco the Tories are still ahead of Labour in latest opinion poll.

BTW where is the leftie furore about the chap who claimed to have seen Cummings make a second visit to Durham admitting he made it up? Why are they not queuing up to hurl abuse in the street at Rosie Duffield for breaking lockdown conditions? Hypocritical barstewards.

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16 minutes ago, Herman said:

Is "herd immunity" still secret government policy and they are hiding it behind a veneer of incompetence?

Are they seriously incompetent and we are going to get "herd immunity" whether we like it or not?

Asking as we have had an age and still have a high level of professional people and companies out there that could have got track and trace up to a quality level standard.

The ridiculous and entirely unprecedented speed at which we are developing vaccines is going to be a factor. A lot of countries will be thinking that they can keep this thing contained/suppressed until that point comes. I think that we are in that category.

I'm agnostic on the enlarged trace and track, I cant prove or disprove its success without data.  I suspect that the basic job is easily 'doable' and the theory is tried and tested. The make or break is the IT. 

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I'm agnostic on the enlarged trace and track, I cant prove or disprove its success without data.  I suspect that the basic job is easily 'doable' and the theory is tried and tested. The make or break is the IT. 

Will you believe the figures? Do you have confidence we will be told the absolutely correct ones?

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If we were in a position of no effective vaccine for 5 plus years many would probably be encouraging the young to party hard whilst barricading the elderly and the vulnerable. There would be losses along the way but on a greater scale more years would be saved than lost... sounds harsh but such a policy would probably survive cold, detached analysis 

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Crafty Canary said:

The public won’t trust the government and Johnson this time if they try to re-tighten lockdown conditions.

Maybe but it is a kick to the gonads for our leftie pals that after this so called fiasco the Tories are still ahead of Labour in latest opinion poll.

BTW where is the leftie furore about the chap who claimed to have seen Cummings make a second visit to Durham admitting he made it up? Why are they not queuing up to hurl abuse in the street at Rosie Duffield for breaking lockdown conditions? Hypocritical barstewards.

Not bothered Crafty about whether this is a left or a right issue. I just want a government to tackle this crisis with openness, honesty, transparency but most of all with competence and credibility. Honestly, couldn't give a **** if Johnson's government was to manage this well just because I happened not to vote for them - I would be very pleased and reassured mostly.  Yet this sh1tshow has made mis-step after mis-step. It is the most appalling management I have seen in my lifetime.

I do agree with your first sentence.

 

 

Edited by sonyc
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2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I just want a government to tackle this crisis with openness, honesty, transparency but most of all with competence and credibility.

Amen to that Sonyc

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1 minute ago, Daz Sparks said:

Amen to that Sonyc

Thank you and I agreed with your earlier post - Sunak has handled the finances and business support with a good degree of surety and inspires some confidence. He has not been matched by many other cabinet ministers.

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3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

 

Will you believe the figures? Do you have confidence we will be told the absolutely correct ones?

Probably. If you look behind the headlines the data in this is almost always there.  

I have faith that the ONS and NHS are professional.  The government are entitled to their analysis, as am I and anyone else.  The important thing is that we all have access to the primary data.

Do i have access to the primary data is the question to ask.  

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

No. I do not think that is the case. 

 There was no official policy to this effect and from thenwiser reading I did on this it seems that decisions like this were delegated to clinicians in the usual manner.

Hopefully this will come out when there is a Public Enquiry into the Government's handling of this affair. 

A quick google search turns up managers of Care Homes telling of cases where Care Home residents have not been admitted to hospital for various conditions and definite cases where Doctors have been adding DNR notices to residents notes without consulting their families - and don't tell me that these "clinicians" were doing this without guidance from above.

#gov.uk#blood on our hands

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Thank you and I agreed with your earlier post - Sunak has handled the finances and business support with a good degree of surety and inspires some confidence. He has not been matched by many other cabinet ministers.

Ditto, there are several things that have been done well and that is to the government’s and the specific cabinet minister’s credit. On the other hand several ministers have been found wanting and filling the majority of available positions with loyalists has never been a recipe for success in any organization, especially a national government. Compound all of that with a political advisor committed to “deconstruction of the state” and you have the US and UK governments in a nutshell, and why there will be and deserves to be ongoing skepticism and fact checking on almost every action they announce. It’s unsustainable in the long term, but here we all are. 

Edited by Surfer
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44 minutes ago, Trevor Hockey's Beard said:

Hopefully this will come out when there is a Public Enquiry into the Government's handling of this affair. 

A quick google search turns up managers of Care Homes telling of cases where Care Home residents have not been admitted to hospital for various conditions and definite cases where Doctors have been adding DNR notices to residents notes without consulting their families - and don't tell me that these "clinicians" were doing this without guidance from above.

#gov.uk#blood on our hands

Did this happen before?

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Did this happen before?

@Barbe bleu and @Trevor Hockey's Beard, I believe DNR has been happening as a practice well before the pandemic. Having lost my mother in a care home earlier this year (January) DNR was already in place. Before that, her local medical practice had also asked both me (as someone with medical / health power of attorney, but also a direct question by her GP to my mum, perhaps a year before).

So, unless the DNR issue has been re-inforced as the pandemic progressed, I think this practice / notice has been usual practice for some time.

Edited by sonyc

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2 hours ago, kick it off said:

This is a stark contrast to Raab saying they now have the capacity for 10,000 cases per day. Presuming that each case has 160 contacts each (going by the sage data above) then he appears to be saying that at full capacity (which we are pretty close to with 8000 new cases per day currently), tracers would need to contact a total of 1.6 million people per day. each individual tracer would on average be contacting 64 people per day. I've some experience with contacting large numbers of people in a day, when I've had to make bulk phone calls for school about trips etc.... I think 64 per day sounds like a lot, and that's without factoring in time for breaks, having days off etc. It also doesn't include people not picking up their phone, answerphone messages etc etc.

If you work on the basis that each day there will be 1/7 off at any one time (based on having one day off per week), it works out to an average of 75 calls per day for those on duty. If they're having 2 days off per week then it's 89 calls per day for those on duty.

If they're sending out text messages or emails then I guess it's possible, but if they're calling people manually then I'm not convinced it is.

However all that, assumes that an app is in place to provide the tracers with details of those who have been in contact. Without the app, and tracers having to manually work out all contacts then this is absolute nonsense, there's no way it's physically possible.

Raab said it was a "delicate and dangerous moment" but that the testing and tracing mechanism which was in place would keep the pressure down on the virus.

He said it had been operational since Thursday with 25,000 tracers and the ability to track 10,000 cases a day.

Andrew Marr pointed out to him that there were more than 8,000 new cases a day currently, which meant this was "on the edge".

Raab was not able to give a figure for the number of people traced so far.

"We have got the ability for 10,000 cases to track all the contacts they have had and that system is up and running."

To me this sort of basic maths is why I’ve always been suspicious that track and trace was this miracle solution to the pandemic.

New case numbers would have to be significantly lower, probably well under 100 a day for this to be a highly effective system to reduce the spread. 

And that is without considering just how many people are likely to be carrying without any symptoms. Some reports of contained outbreaks such as cruise ships are suggesting that % may be massive.

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3 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

To me this sort of basic maths is why I’ve always been suspicious that track and trace was this miracle solution to the pandemic.

New case numbers would have to be significantly lower, probably well under 100 a day for this to be a highly effective system to reduce the spread. 

And that is without considering just how many people are likely to be carrying without any symptoms. Some reports of contained outbreaks such as cruise ships are suggesting that % may be massive.

Agree with this. Never expected the UK to be trying to make this work at the numbers being reported now. Certainly as we are having to set up new structures to handle this. 

If the new cases numbers were in 3 figures (and at the lower end), I believe it is an excellent process (properly embedded) for future management whilst the economy is re-established. 

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2 hours ago, Crafty Canary said:

The public won’t trust the government and Johnson this time if they try to re-tighten lockdown conditions.

Maybe but it is a kick to the gonads for our leftie pals that after this so called fiasco the Tories are still ahead of Labour in latest opinion poll.

BTW where is the leftie furore about the chap who claimed to have seen Cummings make a second visit to Durham admitting he made it up? Why are they not queuing up to hurl abuse in the street at Rosie Duffield for breaking lockdown conditions? Hypocritical barstewards.

Rosie Duffield has apologised and resigned - for her partner coming to visit her at her home. Cummings drove 300 miles, left his residence to drive to a hospital when he says he had covid symptoms, had a day trip out stopping off at more than one location, he and his wife both ‘forgot’ to mention the trip in public comments before  they were caught out, and he has not so much as suggested he might have been in the wrong. In fact, he said he doesn’t care what it looks like to everybody else. And Rosie Duffield and her party have had no input into the legislation or the guidance.

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

To the wider politics of this an important question would be around the funding available to this part of PHE and how that impacted on staffing, resourcing and training.  If the department is largely unchanged since 2009 it's a little unfair to blame either Boris or the Tories. If it is changed since that time this would be on their watch but whose precisely would need to be determined.

Whoah there @Barbe bleu, lets not invent too many stories so you trip yourself up in your increasingly desparate attempts to exonerate Johnson/Cummings.

It is pretty unlikely that the department remained unchanged from 2009 seeing as it didn't come into existance until the 1st April 2013 as part of the Lansley reforms.

Tories are caught bang to rights on this one. They centralised when those countries that have successfully dealt with this devolved. They then underfunded the NHS and slashed local government funding. Guilty as guilty can be on this charge.

Edited by BigFish
sp

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