Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

Apparently police in Cambridgeshire have arrested two drivers who were meeting up to install a stereo in one of the cars.  Not essential work that's for sure, but seems a bit OTT.  Sounds like there was more to it than that.  These measures are still advisory so far as I know, so police have no powers to enforce.  But it shows what could happen if they did.

 

 

I suspect the "stereo" didnt belong to either of them

[Aggy 755]

6 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Agreed but why on earth should I put my daughter at risk so I can look after their kids; so they can ensure the nation’s hamsters have enough chew toys. Don’t disagree with them staying open but they are not a critical industry and could operate a skeleton staff, or employ temps whilst those with childcare issues are furloughed.

I don’t know the answer to this, but can you employ someone (even as a temp) if you’ve put people on furlough?

Can’t imagine the government would be happy about subsidising 80 per cent of people’s full whack salaries while the business just employs someone cheaper to do the same job.

[Van wink 2,994]

24 minutes ago, Indy said:

The wife’s taking our dog out in the morning and I’m walking him in evenings so both get out for an hour, but keeping well away round open fields.

Not sure if we’re allowed to drive the mile or so to the beach and walk the dog there, wish they’d be clear today.

I think you should assess the risk, you will then come to the right answer, as I did today

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

So many flooded down here with their caravans and motorhomes but now the sites have been closed and the selfish arrogant bunch are parking in the streets. And unless they are on double yellow lines or even if they are parked outside someones home, the police cannot move the mon.

Clear off where you came from and empty your chemical toilets down your own drains not the ones in our streets.

[sonyc 5,517]

34 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

I took my permitted daily exercise this morning by walking to Whitlingham and back (about 4 miles).  Hardly anyone around when I arrived, a few more as I was coming home.  Strange behaviour by one or two who actually crossed the road when they saw me coming.  Not sure if it had anything to do with covid though!  

I  fear an outbreak of the virtue-signalling virus . . .

 

 

People do that here too Benchwarmer...  The message has got through I reckon.

[Barbe bleu 826]

36 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Thx ron for seeing what will happen, as i said in another post, Coronavirus will happily by itself do herd immunity, whether Boris and his boffins had did it one way or rest of the world another way...it cares nowt for whatever  nations do and its got a good year or two to do its thing before any vaccine is produced.

Complete herd immunity is unlikely to occur naturally.  Polio, measles, mumps, TB etc. are only rare because we immunise against them.

If we do nothing then eventually most of the population will get it but there will be enough coronavirus naive people to keep it endemic in the population and keep it coming g back to kill more of the vulnerable with the odd younger , fitter person getting a real dose too.

 

[Icecream Snow 761]

Italian deaths rise once again. I know the "Total Cases" number is misleading, heavily skewed by the amount of testing a country does on "normal" people, and that more people than that will have had mild cases, but still for Italy to have 10% deaths is staggering for me.

[Badger 2,405]

1 hour ago, benchwarmer said:

Strange behaviour by one or two who actually crossed the road when they saw me coming.

Not sure it is strange behaviour - I certainly did this when I saw people coming on my walk. Why take the risk?

[Indy 3,300]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

I think you should assess the risk, you will then come to the right answer, as I did today

Jesus being a safety rep when I was offshore if had to carry out a risk assessment I think the driving there and back would put me off.

The beach I go to has maybe three or four other dog walkers in a square mile! Just aren’t sure if this would probably assessed as not a required journey, but my dog would beg to differ!

[Bill 1,788]

31 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

Italian deaths rise once again. I know the "Total Cases" number is misleading, heavily skewed by the amount of testing a country does on "normal" people, and that more people than that will have had mild cases, but still for Italy to have 10% deaths is staggering for me.

and perhaps not too helpful to those on here who are in the vunerable category

a daily 'bring out your dead' announcerment might be best avoided

[ron obvious 1,502]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Complete herd immunity is unlikely to occur naturally.  Polio, measles, mumps, TB etc. are only rare because we immunise against them.

If we do nothing then eventually most of the population will get it but there will be enough coronavirus naive people to keep it endemic in the population and keep it coming g back to kill more of the vulnerable with the odd younger , fitter person getting a real dose too.

 

Herd immunity will reduce it to a low level with occasional outbreaks. Vaccination is the only real cure.

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by ron obvious

[Indy 3,300]

43 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

Italian deaths rise once again. I know the "Total Cases" number is misleading, heavily skewed by the amount of testing a country does on "normal" people, and that more people than that will have had mild cases, but still for Italy to have 10% deaths is staggering for me.

It’s amazing compared to a Germany, but it should be noted, Italian death rates are around 10 per 1000 inhabitants....so again are these really all down to the virus and how many have been finished off by the virus who were on their last throws? 
 

I totally agree that any life saved is worth the effort but I also would like to have realistic figures and not just sensationalism on behalf of the press.

[Icecream Snow 761]

11 minutes ago, Indy said:

It’s amazing compared to a Germany, but it should be noted, Italian death rates are around 10 per 1000 inhabitants....so again are these really all down to the virus and how many have been finished off by the virus who were on their last throws? 
 

I totally agree that any life saved is worth the effort but I also would like to have realistic figures and not just sensationalism on behalf of the press.

The New York Times reported last week that the average Italian death was 78.5 years old, and Italian does have an older average population by 7-8 years than the UK, so yes, they probably would have gone from something at some point.

But there's been two well-publicized cases in Ireland and the UK of two guys in their late twenties/early thirties who needed to spend 7-8 days on a ventilator to get through the virus. They're probably outliers, but it does show it's not just the old who should be worried.

[Indy 3,300]

12 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

The New York Times reported last week that the average Italian death was 78.5 years old, and Italian does have an older average population by 7-8 years than the UK, so yes, they probably would have gone from something at some point.

But there's been two well-publicized cases in Ireland and the UK of two guys in their late twenties/early thirties who needed to spend 7-8 days on a ventilator to get through the virus. They're probably outliers, but it does show it's not just the old who should be worried.

Agreed, but generally those younger cases have been found to have had an unknown condition, like that young football coach in Italy, who died.

I think it’s certainly a big eye opener this virus, certainly highlighted the fragile nature of humans and our systems aren’t designed to cope with everything thrown at us.

But I noticed today just how compliant everyone here today has been, which is good to see.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Indy

[Van wink 2,994]

43 minutes ago, Indy said:

Jesus being a safety rep when I was offshore if had to carry out a risk assessment I think the driving there and back would put me off.

The beach I go to has maybe three or four other dog walkers in a square mile! Just aren’t sure if this would probably assessed as not a required journey, but my dog would beg to differ!

It’s potential for harm and likelihood of an adverse event occurring Indy, as you will know. Less vehicles on the road atm so reduced risk was my view.

[ron obvious 1,502]

16 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

The New York Times reported last week that the average Italian death was 78.5 years old, and Italian does have an older average population by 7-8 years than the UK, so yes, they probably would have gone from something at some point.

But there's been two well-publicized cases in Ireland and the UK of two guys in their late twenties/early thirties who needed to spend 7-8 days on a ventilator to get through the virus. They're probably outliers, but it does show it's not just the old who should be worried.

I believe sepsis is the biggest concern for otherwise low risk groups. Many infections can very occasionally produce an allergic reaction in the immune system, which then sees healthy tissue as a threat & destroys it. Very nasty.

Edited March 24, 2020 by ron obvious

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, ron obvious said:

I believe sepsis is the biggest concern for otherwise low risk groups. Many infections can very occasionally produce an allergic reaction in the immune system, which then sees healthy tissue as a threat & destroys it. Very nasty.

Not much been said about this Ron but I agree, pneumonia leading to sepsis does seem to be the killer for the younger less vulnerable victims. 

[Indy 3,300]

3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s potential for harm and likelihood of an adverse event occurring Indy, as you will know. Less vehicles on the road atm so reduced risk was my view.

With my driving it’ll be 5 for potential for harm x 5 for the severity! 😂

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Indy said:

With my driving it’ll be 5 for potential for harm x 5 for the severity! 😂

Best permanent “stop at home” then 😀

[T 190]

I understand the instinct to blame but I don’t think it is helpful in these unprecedented times. There are no easy right answers and it is always easier to criticise from the sidelines as opposed to making decisions in a new and fast changing situation. If you do want to blame then UK society and human nature s part of the problem. 

[T 190]

I read Germany has been doing more testing so increasing the denominator reduces the death rate. Italy has an older population a lot of whom live with younger people so their stronger family relationships have proved fatal.Italy is also in a peak period where it is being overwhelmed 
 

Germany also has double the Italy ICU capacity and 4 times the UK ICU capacity and more capability to expand. Germany is very strong internationally in medicine engineering and organisational capabilities and have a more community spirited compliant culture so are better placed to deal with the crisis than the UK but will no doubt also struggle in the coming months. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by T

[Barbe bleu 826]

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

The effort here really is amazing and to be hugely praised

[benchwarmer 625]

1 hour ago, Badger said:

Not sure it is strange behaviour - I certainly did this when I saw people coming on my walk. Why take the risk?

If it makes you feel safer, do so by all means.  But the risk is close to zero and it's one I'm willing to take.  Regarding everyone as a potential source of infection doesn't sit well with me, especially in a county with so few cases like Norfolk.

[ron obvious 1,502]

12 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

Very interesting. I wonder what the final picture will be.

For whatever reason (likely timing - but that would soon average out anyway), latest new death stats way down:

 

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Tot Deaths/ 1M pop
China	81,218	+47	3,281	+4	73,650	4,287	1,399	56	2
Italy	69,176		6,820		8,326	54,030	3,393	1,144	113
USA	54,916	+35	784	+4	379	53,753	1,175	166	2
Spain	42,058		2,991		3,794	35,273	2,636	900	64
Germany	32,991		159		3,290	29,542	23	394	2
Iran	24,811		1,934		8,913	13,964		295	23
France	22,304		1,100		3,281	17,923	2,516	342	17
Switzerland	9,991	+114	133	+11	131	9,727	141	1,154	15
S. Korea	9,137	+100	126	+6	3,730	5,281	59	178	2
UK	8,077		422		135	7,520	20	119	6
Netherlands	5,560		276		2	5,282	435	324	16
Austria	5,394	+111	30	+2	9	5,355	26	599	3
Belgium	4,269		122		461	3,686	381	368	11
Norway	2,868	+2	13	+1	6	2,849	44	529	2
Canada	2,792		26		112

[Indy 3,300]

4 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Very interesting. I wonder what the final picture will be.

For whatever reason (likely timing - but that would soon average out anyway), latest new death stats way down:

 

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Tot Deaths/ 1M pop
China	81,218	+47	3,281	+4	73,650	4,287	1,399	56	2
Italy	69,176		6,820		8,326	54,030	3,393	1,144	113
USA	54,916	+35	784	+4	379	53,753	1,175	166	2
Spain	42,058		2,991		3,794	35,273	2,636	900	64
Germany	32,991		159		3,290	29,542	23	394	2
Iran	24,811		1,934		8,913	13,964		295	23
France	22,304		1,100		3,281	17,923	2,516	342	17
Switzerland	9,991	+114	133	+11	131	9,727	141	1,154	15
S. Korea	9,137	+100	126	+6	3,730	5,281	59	178	2
UK	8,077		422		135	7,520	20	119	6
Netherlands	5,560		276		2	5,282	435	324	16
Austria	5,394	+111	30	+2	9	5,355	26	599	3
Belgium	4,269		122		461	3,686	381	368	11
Norway	2,868	+2	13	+1	6	2,849	44	529	2
Canada	2,792		26		112

There are on average 8 people out a 1000 die every day across the 7 billion on this planet! The statistics above show that though Some people are moaning that not enough done quick enough, the reality is globally it’s not been a bad effort considering the ferocity of the virus to spread due to its robust nature to survive up to 72 hours outside the body.

I’m not convinced that had the virus not hit all those contributed to the virus deaths would have all survived. There’s were lots of people with severe conditions who are on that list and might have been part of the average deaths.

Rather than be negative I think we should actually be thankful for the measures put in place by our government and those across the globe. It might still ramp up but the reality is it’s not the animal it had the potential to be.

[Van wink 2,994]

12 hours ago, benchwarmer said:

If it makes you feel safer, do so by all means.  But the risk is close to zero and it's one I'm willing to take.  Regarding everyone as a potential source of infection doesn't sit well with me, especially in a county with so few cases like Norfolk.

I would be a little bit careful of thinking that Norfolk has only a few cases BW. Nobody really knows as we are not testing, best thing is to assume everyone is a symptomless carrier.

[Peanuts 150]

12 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

 

If true that most of the country has already had the virus then that's got to be good news, presumably these 3.5 million antibody testing kits will be used to test this theory.

It would certainly explain one statistic that has been puzzling me; that only 10% of our tests are positive. My understanding is that most of those tested are already ill in hospital so I'm surprised more aren't showing as infected.

[First Wazzock 902]

The peak is expected here in the East around April 23rd (Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Cambs), so we are still a little bit away from the summit. And that's from EAAS - East Anglian Ambulance service

[Badger 2,405]

13 hours ago, benchwarmer said:

If it makes you feel safer, do so by all means.  But the risk is close to zero and it's one I'm willing to take.  Regarding everyone as a potential source of infection doesn't sit well with me, especially in a county with so few cases like Norfolk.

The risk is low, but for those with an underlying condition much higher than "close to zero."

You may feel quite happy taking that risk, but in not considering the needs of others that may be at higher risk than you you place them at higher risk and may certainly cause them distress/ alarm.